I wanted to try and take a more objective look at our situation at this point to see where things are likely to end up by the end of the season despite all the doom and gloom going around at the moment. A third of the season is already gone and there is a good bit of data out there on the teams. I would say on the whole that our schedule is shaping up to be tougher than expected. Duke has not shown signs of dropping off, Notre Dame seems to have taken a step up in quality, FSU put it all together, and Miami, NCST, Syracuse, and USC are going to be tough outs. Plus we have to play Maye who is probably a top 5 player in the country. I think we knew some of this would happen but this is a slightly tougher schedule than what I thought initially.
I came up with some expected spreads and implied victory odds based on Sagarin rankings. The bottom line is that we are going to have to significantly outperform the track that we are on to avoid a 7-5 type of season, that is probably the most likely record at this point depending on what you believe about some of these other teams (possibly 8-4). The good news is that we will not be a significant underdog in any remaining game and will have opportunities to be competitive against some very good teams.
Note: I know that Vegas does not mechanically set spreads based upon what computer rankings tell them, they have injury reports, match reports, insider intel, etc. Plus they are also setting spreads based on what people will bet. But I think these are all tethered to reality in some way. I am curious to know which ones people think are way off.
likely spread: -16.5
implied victory odds: 95%
Wake has taken a significant step back and got handled by Georgia Tech yesterday. Do not expect them to be able to compete up front with us.
.95 wins
11-11 - Ga Tech at home
likely spread: -16.5
implied victory odds: 95%
They have pretty well stripped everything down in Atlanta after firing Collins, they have surprised me with some feistyness this year but I don't expect them to be competitive over 60 minutes.
.95 wins
actual spread: -6.5
implied victory odds: 72.4%
They always play us tough in the dome and Schrader can be hard to stop as a dual threat. They are missing their biggest pass-catching threat. Not a lock to win but I find it hard to see Syracuse putting much more than 20 points on the board here which gives us a clear path to win.
.724 wins
10-28 - NC State Away
likely spread: -7
implied victory odds: 75.20%
Never an easy place to play for us and their offense has showed a pulse at times this year. We still should be comfortably better.
.752 wins
10-21 - Miami away
likely spread: +1.5
implied victory odds: 48.5%
I suspect this is the one people may have the most disagreement with, and it seems Sagarin likes Miami a big more than some of the other ratings systems. The A&M win is starting to look better, they vaporized Temple yesterday and if they handle GaTech next week the way they should and are competitive against UNC, I would expect this to be an extremely competitive game.
.485 wins
11-4 Notre Dame home
likely spread - +1.5
implied victory odds: 48.5%
Notre Dame seems elite to me, probably in a tier slightly above FSU due to their superior line play. I could see this being +3 but not much higher than that depending on how we do over the next 6 weeks.
.485 wins
11-18 - UNC home
likely spread: -2.5
implied victory odds: 54.5%
We rate our very similarly to them, I do not love this matchup because I find it hard to see us winning a track meet type game against Maye. Their defense as usual is middle of the pack for the entire FBS so we will hopefully be able to keep the ball moving. UNC just getting points here right now because they are away.
.545 wins
11-25 USC away
likely spread: -1
implied victory odds: 51.3%
Rattler can get anybody, rivalry game, etc. Do not see them giving up a lot of points to us for this one. We all know the score here, they are going to be ready for us
.513 wins
projected record: 5.404 wins, 2.596 losses (7.404 - 4.596)
You can really argue for 7-5 or 8-4. I suspect there are people who think we may have a better shot against USC, UNC, and Miami in particular. To me the season is really going to turn on Syracuse, Miami, and NCState. You win these games that are not a lock but you probably should be winning then you are going to have a head of steam for Notre Dame and thinking you may be able to nab 2 of 3 from UNC, USC, and Notre Dame. Start dropping games in October and November is probably a rough month.
I came up with some expected spreads and implied victory odds based on Sagarin rankings. The bottom line is that we are going to have to significantly outperform the track that we are on to avoid a 7-5 type of season, that is probably the most likely record at this point depending on what you believe about some of these other teams (possibly 8-4). The good news is that we will not be a significant underdog in any remaining game and will have opportunities to be competitive against some very good teams.
Note: I know that Vegas does not mechanically set spreads based upon what computer rankings tell them, they have injury reports, match reports, insider intel, etc. Plus they are also setting spreads based on what people will bet. But I think these are all tethered to reality in some way. I am curious to know which ones people think are way off.
The Very Likely Wins:
10-7 - Wake Forest at homelikely spread: -16.5
implied victory odds: 95%
Wake has taken a significant step back and got handled by Georgia Tech yesterday. Do not expect them to be able to compete up front with us.
.95 wins
11-11 - Ga Tech at home
likely spread: -16.5
implied victory odds: 95%
They have pretty well stripped everything down in Atlanta after firing Collins, they have surprised me with some feistyness this year but I don't expect them to be competitive over 60 minutes.
.95 wins
The Likely Wins
9-30 - Syracuse awayactual spread: -6.5
implied victory odds: 72.4%
They always play us tough in the dome and Schrader can be hard to stop as a dual threat. They are missing their biggest pass-catching threat. Not a lock to win but I find it hard to see Syracuse putting much more than 20 points on the board here which gives us a clear path to win.
.724 wins
10-28 - NC State Away
likely spread: -7
implied victory odds: 75.20%
Never an easy place to play for us and their offense has showed a pulse at times this year. We still should be comfortably better.
.752 wins
The Toss-ups
This is what makes me nervous. We have 4 remaining games that are basically toss-ups, between 45% and 55% chance to win. Odds say we should split these which leaves us with an 8-4 ceiling.10-21 - Miami away
likely spread: +1.5
implied victory odds: 48.5%
I suspect this is the one people may have the most disagreement with, and it seems Sagarin likes Miami a big more than some of the other ratings systems. The A&M win is starting to look better, they vaporized Temple yesterday and if they handle GaTech next week the way they should and are competitive against UNC, I would expect this to be an extremely competitive game.
.485 wins
11-4 Notre Dame home
likely spread - +1.5
implied victory odds: 48.5%
Notre Dame seems elite to me, probably in a tier slightly above FSU due to their superior line play. I could see this being +3 but not much higher than that depending on how we do over the next 6 weeks.
.485 wins
11-18 - UNC home
likely spread: -2.5
implied victory odds: 54.5%
We rate our very similarly to them, I do not love this matchup because I find it hard to see us winning a track meet type game against Maye. Their defense as usual is middle of the pack for the entire FBS so we will hopefully be able to keep the ball moving. UNC just getting points here right now because they are away.
.545 wins
11-25 USC away
likely spread: -1
implied victory odds: 51.3%
Rattler can get anybody, rivalry game, etc. Do not see them giving up a lot of points to us for this one. We all know the score here, they are going to be ready for us
.513 wins
projected record: 5.404 wins, 2.596 losses (7.404 - 4.596)
You can really argue for 7-5 or 8-4. I suspect there are people who think we may have a better shot against USC, UNC, and Miami in particular. To me the season is really going to turn on Syracuse, Miami, and NCState. You win these games that are not a lock but you probably should be winning then you are going to have a head of steam for Notre Dame and thinking you may be able to nab 2 of 3 from UNC, USC, and Notre Dame. Start dropping games in October and November is probably a rough month.
