Polymarket - 2024 Presidential Election Predictions
2024 Presidential Election Predictions. Trust markets, not presidential polls. Live and accurate forecasts by the world's largest prediction market.
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10/22 Trump up 31 points
- Thread starter TigerRagRob
- Start date
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Going to have to be big shadow campaign for her to win
We all knew it was coming.
She never had a legitimate shot. She is the worst candidate, for any office, in my lifetime.
She never had a legitimate shot. She is the worst candidate, for any office, in my lifetime.
If you pay for more polls, then you get more polls. So when MAGA pays for more polls in Trumps favor, they get them. Its how they are running this campaign. The whole operatas is a gas lighting exposition.
It's impressive how many seemingly intelligent people don't understand how the betting market works.
And don't know who JD Vance's personal godfather Peter Thiel is.
Polymarket odds move based on incoming bets. So if you have someone throwing a million down on something it’s going to shift the percentage of winning. It’s not your traditional betting market where they try and balance the odds to ensure the house always wins. They’re basing the percentage to win chance off of the amount of bets that come in on a specific betting line.
Polymarket also takes into consideration the daily vote totals. So as everyday goes by and more votes are reported the more accurate they will be.
I hope you are wrong. I can't imagine the country wants a cackling imbecile in charge. She is really, really, stupid. Think about who you are voting for.
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Can you provide a link to back that up? I just read about polymarket and could not find it. Everything I read says it is based on bets, can be easily manipulated by a few large bets, it users skew libertarian, and is owned by trump backer Peter thiel.
They dont care just that they are in charge. The meltdown and tears will be even more epic than 2016...
We all know whats coming. There is only one way you win and its not legit. Im watching TX and MO. The signs are in place. There is no way the deepstate can allow an outsider to win again. If by some chance they F it up again like 2016 and dont rig it enough they will move to the next option. Either way I dont see America getting past whats about to happen. Only way is for the right to bend the knee forever to the left. That wont happen...
The majority of americans dont think like you. You are the minority. There is no cheating. it is called reality.
They actually do. If you trust the polls that trump is way up, then you should also trust the polls on the issues.
The left and right are pretty equal. Its the center that the fight is for...If you havent noticed the right has started to win the culture war in the last few years...
Sure, as you know, markets consume all information immediately. When the vote totals are released in the evening and that knowledge becomes public, it is then calculated into the price. Of course that assumes an efficient market, and i understand that you are arguing that the market is not efficient.
However, if they have honest voter rolls, and you know how many people have voted so far and how many votes are remaining ...... then as time passes the result becomes more and more certain.
I think it's naïve to think that cheating doesn't occur in elections. It's wild how easy it is to vote.
I just think it's funny that each side only thinks that the other side cheats.
That’s not a link. That’s a statement with no corresponding information to support it.
Following Florida, Texas sued the Biden-Harris administration Tuesday after requesting citizenship status information about registered voters in Texas, and not receiving it from federal agencies as required by law.
Last week, a coalition of attorneys general, including from Florida and Texas, called on Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to provide the requested information. They made the requests as multiple states removed thousands of noncitizens from their voter rolls. After not receiving the information, Florida sued last week. Other states in the coalition are also expected to sue.
Last week, a coalition of attorneys general, including from Florida and Texas, called on Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to provide the requested information. They made the requests as multiple states removed thousands of noncitizens from their voter rolls. After not receiving the information, Florida sued last week. Other states in the coalition are also expected to sue.
Installed not elected??? Wrong picture D-Bag. Whether you like him or not , he WAS elected. She WAS NOT! Goodness ya'll are insufferable.
There will be an epic meltdown no matter who wins. Kamala wins, the right will say the world is over. Trump wins, the left will say democracy is gone. It will be entertaining no matter what. People are so extreme.
Wasn't even paying attention to the picture, it was about the words in the text that were spot on and you know it's true. He lost by 7 million popular votes because America hates him but he refuses to accept it. This avalanche of right-leaning pollsters are setting the stage for claims of fraud when he ungloriously loses again - and you will go along with it just like the rest of the red sheep.
The difference to me is the Left is closer to being right about what happens if Trump wins. Additionally, if Kamala wins, I want her to treat them well and do everything she can to make their lives better. None of us believe that the maga contingent wants the same for us.
Spot on for heels-up. Again, he WAS elected. Those were the words in the text that were totally false.
You keep saying this, but 538 accounts for that and is still moving to Trump. They also exclude Rasmussen and flag Republican funded pollsters like Trafalger. In PA, the following all have Trump tied or up just in the last week. Are they all biased, partisan right-leaning pollsters?
Emerson
Quantum Insights
Redfield and Wilton
AtlasIntel (one of the most accurate in 2020)
Bullfinch
Also a lot of focus on polymarket and how that’s skewed with whales and what not. How do you explain Bovada having Trump as a -165 to +140 favorite right now?
It doesn't shock me at all that a republican would beat Kamala. But it's hard for me to believe that Trump could truly win this election. I'm always skeptical of the polls.
