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And then there were 24. Weed Update

hopefultiger13

The Jack Dunlap Club
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Aug 20, 2008
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Despite a late push by Republicans, including a public resolution by the Ohio State Senate and a public address by the Governor against legalization, Ohio became the 24th state to legalize marijuana for public use. As I mentioned in earlier updates, Republican efforts were split on this ballot as issue 1 was an abortion issue and issue 2 was legalized weed. As expected, the Republicasn divided their efforts to get both issues defeated and succeeded in doing neither. Both issues passed comfortably, again as expected.

Ohio legalizing is significant IMHO for several reasons.

Most would consider Ohio a Red state (but not deep Red). With the possible exception of Missouri, this is one of the first truly Red States to legalize despite strong anti legalization campaigns by Republicans leading up to the election. That's a big deal as we saw efforts to legalize fail in Arkansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Oklahoma as government officials campaigned hard against it.

With legalization in Ohio, this means that more than half the US Population currently resides in legal states. Again, a big deal IMHO because of some of the anti legalization arguments. Namely that accidents are going to increase and children are going to have easy access to weed. These arguments make a lot of sense and they would seem to be a given. Except that they aren't. Neither accidents nor teen use of weed has increased by a significant amount in legal states. Now that more than half the population lives in legal states, studies showing this have a LOT more credibility.

So looking ahead, I've postulated that at some point, we will reach a tipping point where Republican will start to realize that this is not the end of the world and that most states are doing this and the sky didn't fall. Now by no means do I think that legalizing weed will be problem free. There's potential for people to get addicted in larger numbers. I think more people will try it, now that it's legal. Balancing that out is of course the fact that the criminal part of marijuana will go away for the most part. Sure, there will always be some sort of black market. People still smuggle cigarettes in from Canada and there's even an illegal alcohol market out there. But honestly, none of this is mainstream...

Personally I'd rather buy my booze from a reputable dealer than from Uncle Bubba's deep woods still. You know what you are getting and you pay more for that. That's all good. Bottom line is that there's a bunch of money in the weed business. Before legalization, all that money was going into criminal's pockets. Now it's going into legal companies' coffers, the pockets of their workers, and generating taxes on all that. That's better for all concerned and worse for criminals.

With the population in legal states over 50% now, that's a tipping point for sure. During the next year or so, we have the potential to get several more legal states. Hawaii is almost a sure thing. Longer shots are Florida, NH, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Hawaii will bring that number of legal states up to 25 (Half) and any others would put legal states in the majority. That's going to be another tipping point. Once that is reached, I think that you'll see a slow but steady gain over the next 10 years or so as more conservative states get on board. By the mid 30s, I'm thinking we could be at 40+ legal states with only the most backwards states holding out (sorry guys, I'm afraid SC and my own Idaho) will be on the outside, looking in unless Federal action occurs).

And that's the final piece of the puzzle. A politician at the Federal level may like or dislike legal weed, but it would be very unusual for a member of congress to vote against a business in his/her home state. That way lies disaster for them. So as more and more states become legal, the pressure on Republicans to take action at the federal level continues to mount.

The legalization movement continues to gain... more slowly than I'd like, but the movement is there. Smoke em if you got em.

UPDATED: A couple of things I forgot to add above. First a new Gallop poll out today shows that overall support for legal marijuana reached 70% Nation Wide for the first time ever. I'm going to link an article here so you can check out the details if you want... WARNING!!! POSSIBLE NSFW link as this site is all about legal weed. I do not want to get anyone in trouble:

WARNING NSFW!!
WARNING NSFW!!!

Secondly, I do know that Republicans in Ohio are being urged to repeal the legalization that just got approved by voters. We'll see how that goes, but that's a hill that most wouldn't want to die on IMHO. Republicans are supposed to be all about state's rights and people choosing. I do get that what they REALLY mean is that they are for those things if they agree with Republican policies and not so much if they don't. But that would be a BIG slap in the face to voters regardless of where you stand on the issue itself. I predict nothing happening here... Dems will be 100% against it and enough Republicans won't want anything to do with it to kill any chance of this happening. As an example, Montana (a MUCH more conservative state) had some Republicans try this in the current session, but it failed pretty miserably.

UPDATED 11/30/2023:

Bad (but not unexpected News from NH. So there was a committee put together by the governor to make and alter a bill that could be passed to legalize Marijuana in the State. The members included Democrats, Republicans, and community stakeholders. Unfortunately, in an entirely "questionable" move, they included people who were against legalization. Yes, in a group of people who's JOB it was to build consensus on a legalization bill so that it could pass the legislature, they included people who didn't want to build consensus to pass the bill, because they didn't want the bill to pass at all. Oddly enough, no consensus bill was produced. Adding to that, with less than a week to go before the bill was due, the Governor said: BTW, any bill that allows more than 15 stores in the state or allows any lobbying to occur for the marijuana industry will be vetoed. Not a word about it earlier. Obviously, things didn't go well from there. I'm guessing that legalization isn't completely dead in NH, but as usual, color me skeptical on any progress being made.

Better news out of Florida. The State Supreme Court heard arguments regarding the amendment to legalize marijuana by vote in 2024. FYI, the Court has thrown out the amendment twice already for violating the single subject rule. This time the state is objecting on the amendment not being clear. In an encouraging sign in the public arguments the Court seemed to blast the State's argument. That's a good sign they are going to allow the amendment to be on the ballot. Good news also in new poll out of Florida. 68% of registered votes support legalization. This is key as previous polls showed around 60% or so support and 60% approval is the mark needed for the bill to pass. IMHO, given the conservative legislature and governor, there's still a pretty good chance this isn't happening, but there's a better chance now.
 
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