Beginning of Dow 25,000 Housing Collapse Deep Recession

[PalmettoTiger1]

OK I know dome if you say I am like a broken clock being right twice a day

With the government policy to lower inflation by decreasing demand by crushing demand instead of increasing supply Then the increase of spendable cash from the government instead of cutting spending

Then we have the need for housing yet the affordability is impossible is zero

Great government policy

My wife and I have done all we can do to protect our nestegg but the country is getting ready to take a beating

The people in charge are suicidal please make it stop

The good news is it be better at some point in the future

Maybe as much as two years to get this disease out of our economic system put on us by the policies and not Covid

This is a well planned crisis

 

[Ron Munson]

Can't wait. We need a massive housing correction.

If you live responsibly, don't have a lot of debt and didn't buy a house withing
the last 2-3 years and are a ways away from retirement, you should also want a recession. It's a great buying opportunity.

Of course, for some is will impact their jobs, particularly those in sales.

 

[coop#]

Still waiting for the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act

 

[Mr Toad]

If you have a good steady job a recession is an opportunity.

 

[TheValley91]

OK I know dome if you say I am like a broken clock being right twice a day

With the government policy to lower inflation by decreasing demand by crushing demand instead of increasing supply Then the increase of spendable cash from the government instead of cutting spending

Then we have the need for housing yet the affordability is impossible is zero

Great government policy

My wife and I have done all we can do to protect our nestegg but the country is getting ready to take a beating

The people in charge are suicidal please make it stop

The good news is it be better at some point in the future

Maybe as much as two years to get this disease out of our economic system put on us by the policies and not Covid

This is a well planned crisis

It’s like you copied and pasted random thoughts from your notes app.

 

[PalmettoTiger1]

Expect interest rates to hit 14 per cent

With cash that is nice return except inflation is going to be high up around 10 per cent

Interest has to be a couple points above inflation to kill it

So i think

It is going to smoke housing construction

 

[PalmettoTiger1]

It’s like you copied and pasted random thoughts from your notes app.

You have found me out

I keep a notes diary on my phone on daily stuff and ideas

 

[Redbull7]

Can't wait. We need a massive housing correction.

If you live responsibly, don't have a lot of debt and didn't buy a house withing
the last 2-3 years and are a ways away from retirement, you should also want a recession. It's a great buying opportunity.

Of course, for some is will impact their jobs, particularly those in sales.

As a person in sales…. I’m hoping no collapse

 

[PalmettoTiger1]

Can't wait. We need a massive housing correction.

If you live responsibly, don't have a lot of debt and didn't buy a house withing
the last 2-3 years and are a ways away from retirement, you should also want a recession. It's a great buying opportunity.

Of course, for some is will impact their jobs, particularly those in sales.

I totally agree that we are needing a correction

Just mt Tiger friends batter down the hatched as the ride is going to be bumpy for the unprepared and even for the prepared

 

[12 - 0]

Batter down the hatched. Is that a chicken house reference?

 

[pharout73]

too many young voices...

lived through many ups and downs... this is going to last years.

 

[ForzaTigre]

Some of you are nuts. The economy will mean different things in different places, but supply will stay low while demand will still be strong. There’s going to be no housing collapse like 08.

OP, what’s Fox News telling you this morning while watching from your bunker?

 

[appalachiatiger]

When is the healthcare system going to collapse.

The cost to care for a human from cradle to grave is far more than that human can make in their lifetime.

That's not sustainable.

 

[WestTexasTiger]

OK I know dome if you say I am like a broken clock being right twice a day

With the government policy to lower inflation by decreasing demand by crushing demand instead of increasing supply Then the increase of spendable cash from the government instead of cutting spending

Then we have the need for housing yet the affordability is impossible is zero

Great government policy

My wife and I have done all we can do to protect our nestegg but the country is getting ready to take a beating

The people in charge are suicidal please make it stop

The good news is it be better at some point in the future

Maybe as much as two years to get this disease out of our economic system put on us by the policies and not Covid

This is a well planned crisis

I agree.

It be better in the future.

Profound.

 

[Howard's Jock]

you heard it here first!

 

[poates6]

Some of you are nuts. The economy will mean different things in different places, but supply will stay low while demand will still be strong. There’s going to be no housing collapse like 08.

I agree it won’t be like 08. Certainly not here in the south where people are trying to get here to escape terrible governing policies.

It will still be very tough though for a lot of people. I’m thankful to have what I need and some extra to help those in need.

 

[mskoonce]

Got to get inflation in check and this is the lever they can pull. Hopefully they will not get too far out in front with interest rates and will let these past few do their thing.

You just can’t inject as much money into the economy as was done during the past few years and not have a major effect. It’s just not sustainable. Money has basically been free which is why there are so many million dollar houses and $250,000 boat out there now.

 

[atltiger11]

OK I know dome if you say I am like a broken clock being right twice a day

With the government policy to lower inflation by decreasing demand by crushing demand instead of increasing supply Then the increase of spendable cash from the government instead of cutting spending

Then we have the need for housing yet the affordability is impossible is zero

Great government policy

My wife and I have done all we can do to protect our nestegg but the country is getting ready to take a beating

The people in charge are suicidal please make it stop

The good news is it be better at some point in the future

Maybe as much as two years to get this disease out of our economic system put on us by the policies and not Covid

This is a well planned crisis

Genuinely curious to hear the high level strategy you employed to protect your nest egg? Did you get out of the stock market all together? Take a large % out? If yes, where did you put the money? Savings Account, CD, bonds?

I feel like a correction is coming, and I'm hoping its not of epic proportions because nobody needs that.

 

[VTiger15]

Can't wait. We need a massive housing correction.

If you live responsibly, don't have a lot of debt and didn't buy a house withing
the last 2-3 years and are a ways away from retirement, you should also want a recession. It's a great buying opportunity.

Of course, for some is will impact their jobs, particularly those in sales.

Yes. Spot on. It’s time for a major correction.

And liberals ruin everything.

 

[RdKgTgr]

Sadly, a recession is good for people with no debt, sound investments, and federally protected pensions. You hear me @Clem'sSon ?The only negative is I'm 65

 

[TheSweatshirt]

 

[BarnwellTiger]

Still waiting for the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act

I think we're seeing the impact already and it is 100% opposite of its name.

 

[ratatatpat21]

I’m most concerned that there is basically an entire generation of young professionals under the age of 35 that did not experience the 2008 housing/financial crisis who utilize consumer debt to live above their means. If interest rates go even higher (they will) and there is a recession (looking probable) things are going to get really dicey. At that point these folks are going to be looking for their turn in terms of a bailout since the government has set a precedent w Covid relief, PPP, student loans, etc. I don’t want to pick on this generation (I’m 39) but from what I observe most of them don’t have any concern that a recession is possible and can’t comprehend adjusting their lifestyle to match the circumstances of a recession. What should happen is that we should take our licks, tighten our belts and work through it. However, we all know that what will happen is some form of QE that tries to help these constituents and ends up further eroding the dollar’s purchasing power and threatens (long term) it’s status as the world’s reserve currency. I’m reading a very interesting book by Ray Dalio on this very subject right now called The Changing World Order. There are a lot of historical similarities between the past and what we’re experiencing now. Hopefully we navigate it correctly.

 

[Jam48Allay]

Some of you are nuts. The economy will mean different things in different places, but supply will stay low while demand will still be strong. There’s going to be no housing collapse like 08.

OP, what’s Fox News telling you this morning while watching from your bunker?

What’s CNN telling you? That cutting your little boys dick off at 12 after they stopped his puberty with pills for a few years before hand is being a loving and responsible parent? 😏

 

[PalmettoTiger1]

Some of you are nuts. The economy will mean different things in different places, but supply will stay low while demand will still be strong. There’s going to be no housing collapse like 08.

OP, what’s Fox News telling you this morning while watching from your bunker?

50 plus years of life experiences and dealing with financial issues over that time is ringing the bell

 

[Ron Munson]

Yes. Spot on. It’s time for a major correction.

And liberals ruin everything.

We were due a recession. This is the longest we have gone without one (14 years, I think 8 years had been theom longest between recessions prior to this ).

If it weren't for all the government spending and keeping rates artificially low, we would have had one probably around 2017 or 18.

I just hope when it happens, the government doesn't bail out homeowners again.

Recessions are great learning tools. After the last recession, the savings rate went up and revolving debt went down, now people have forgotten all about being responsible.

 

[PalmettoTiger1]

Batter down the hatched. Is that a chicken house reference?

LOL on the down the hatched

My wife had me as a senior guilty pleasure build a chicken pen and have laying hens

love the farm fresh eggs and fun of being close to eating what we grow

hatched made me think about life is more fun with simple pleasures such as feeding tge chickens and gathering the eggs

last night for dinner we did breakfast night

Kneusikes Bacon resl great bacon but greatly overpriced bought off line and then a dozen scrambled eggs with toast and homemade muscadine jam

man that was killer great

simple but really nice

 

[ForzaTigre]

What’s CNN telling you? That cutting your little boys dick off at 12 after they stopped his puberty with pills for a few years before hand is being a loving and responsible parent? 😏

lol at watching cnn

 

[atltiger11]

I just hope when it happens, the government doesn't bail out homeowners again.

I was still in college in 2008, but I'm pretty certain homeowners did not get bailed out. The banks got bailed out. Foreclosure rates peaked between 2008-2010 at 1.84%, 2.21% and 2.23%. Compare this with 2021 having a 0.11% foreclosure rate. So I don't think it's fair to say that homeowners got bailed out.

I bought a condo in Atlanta in 2010 when I first graduated that was a foreclosure and that was the best investment of my life.

Best documentary I've found on the 2008 housing/bank crisis is this one.

 

[Ron Munson]

I was still in college in 2008, but I'm pretty certain homeowners did not get bailed out. The banks got bailed out. Foreclosure rates peaked between 2008-2010 at 1.84%, 2.21% and 2.23%. Compare this with 2021 having a 0.11% foreclosure rate. So I don't think it's fair to say that homeowners got bailed out.

I bought a condo in Atlanta in 2010 when I first graduated that was a foreclosure and that was the best investment of my life.

Best documentary I've found on the 2008 housing/bank crisis is this one.

View embedded media

Correct, they did not get bailed out.

During covid they could defer their payments, which many did, even though they were completely unaffected by covid (job loss, etc). I certainly acknowledge the government forced businesses to close, so you could argue they had to offer a deferment. Now I am wondering if the next time we have a recession, if they will use that again.

2022 is certainly a lot different than 2007 (far less sub prime loans and banks have much higher allowances for credit losses, especially with CECL). However if we go into a recession (housing is already in one, Europe is almost guaranteed a recession) there are going to be a lot of people underwater on their homes (I am talking about almost everyone that bought in at least the last 2-3 years). That won't be good. Not to mention all the people living paycheck to paycheck (even people making > $250k), that couldn't even make 1 mortgage payment if they lose their job.

 

[TheSweatshirt]

Correct, they did not get bailed out.

During covid they could defer their payments, which many did, even though they were completely unaffected by covid (job loss, etc). I certainly acknowledge the government forced businesses to close, so you could argue they had to offer a deferment. Now I am wondering if the next time we have a recession, if they will use that again.

2022 is certainly a lot different than 2007 (far less sub prime loans and banks have much higher allowances for credit losses, especially with CECL). However if we go into a recession (housing is already in one, Europe is almost guaranteed a recession) there are going to be a lot of people underwater on their homes (I am talking about almost everyone that bought in at least the last 2-3 years). That won't be good. Not to mention all the people living paycheck to paycheck (even people making > $250k), that couldn't even make 1 mortgage payment if they lose their job.

We are likely already in a recession but you are ignoring that banks were much more disciplined and homeowners have a lot of equity. There would have to be a massive correction for people to be underwater. And for that to happen, you would need a lot of people who are willing to sell at a loss.

Banks have also gotten really good at selling foreclosed properties. We will never see another real estate buying opportunity like we did during the GFC.

 

[Ron Munson]

We are likely already in a recession but you are ignoring that banks were much more disciplined and homeowners have a lot of equity. There would have to be a massive correction for people to be underwater. And for that to happen, you would need a lot of people who are willing to sell at a loss.

Banks have also gotten really good at selling foreclosed properties. We will never see another real estate buying opportunity like we did during the GFC.

Never say never.

You won't have widespread homeowners underwater, especially since you don't have all the HELOCs and HE loans like we have in 2008, where people were turning their homes into ATMs.

They are saying a 10-20% correction is very possible if not likely. We have already seen an annualized value decrease of 9%. That's going to put almost every buyer over the last 12-18 months underwater or at least eating into their down payment.

Keep in mind, 2 months ago very few people were saying a correction. Now almost everyone is on board with one.

The covid gains could easily be lost (that is 30%).

Factor in other things like a massive amount of houses owned by baby boomers will at some point flood the market.

Then this is only a theory and may not have a material impact, but lots of millennial raced to the housing market during covid and now there are studies/articles about how many are regretting it.

Housing is massively over priced. There is no way it is sustainable for it to stay where it is, especially if 30 year rates get to 8%, and stay their through the first half of 2024.

 

[harristeeter]

We are likely already in a recession but you are ignoring that banks were much more disciplined and homeowners have a lot of equity. There would have to be a massive correction for people to be underwater. And for that to happen, you would need a lot of people who are willing to sell at a loss.

Banks have also gotten really good at selling foreclosed properties. We will never see another real estate buying opportunity like we did during the GFC.

Don't think I can agree with your last line, but everyone has an opinion right?

 

[FranktheDank]

Never say never.

You won't have widespread homeowners underwater, especially since you don't have all the HELOCs and HE loans like we have in 2008, where people were turning their homes into ATMs.

They are saying a 10-20% correction is very possible if not likely. We have already seen an annualized value decrease of 9%. That's going to put almost every buyer over the last 12-18 months underwater or at least eating into their down payment.

Keep in mind, 2 months ago very few people were saying a correction. Now almost everyone is on board with one.

The covid gains could easily be lost (that is 30%).

Factor in other things like a massive amount of houses owned by baby boomers will at some point flood the market.

Then this is only a theory and may not have a material impact, but lots of millennial raced to the housing market during covid and now there are studies/articles about how many are regretting it.

Housing is massively over priced. There is no way it is sustainable for it to stay where it is, especially if 30 year rates get to 8%, and stay their through the first half of 2024.

Yea all the people who panic bought in the past 18 months are definitely going to be under water for awhile. I’m talking about the buyers who offered 100k over ask sight unseen with no inspection. Probably the same people who rushed to Costco and bought 10 years worth of toilet paper when Covid first became a thing.

 

[tigerpull1]

OK I know dome if you say I am like a broken clock being right twice a day

With the government policy to lower inflation by decreasing demand by crushing demand instead of increasing supply Then the increase of spendable cash from the government instead of cutting spending

Then we have the need for housing yet the affordability is impossible is zero

Great government policy

My wife and I have done all we can do to protect our nestegg but the country is getting ready to take a beating

The people in charge are suicidal please make it stop

The good news is it be better at some point in the future

Maybe as much as two years to get this disease out of our economic system put on us by the policies and not Covid

This is a well planned crisis

 

[tigerpull1]

Bought a house in 1984 during the Paul Volcker reign. Interest rate was 18%! How about them apples.

 

[Ron Munson]

Yea all the people who panic bought in the past 18 months are definitely going to be under water for awhile. I’m talking about the buyers who offered 100k over ask sight unseen with no inspection. Probably the same people who rushed to Costco and bought 10 years worth of toilet paper when Covid first became a thing.

People that dumb deserve to lose their ass.

 

[Willence]

Dow is hemorrhaging again today. Just lovely! This whole idea of having a Fed that regulates and controls our economy is so bad and so far beyond what was intended. Amazing how people who have a little power continue to want more and more power - said no one ever. Why do we keep allowing this insanity?

 

[Ron Munson]

It's actually quite comical when you think back to how excited everyone was when they were getting those checks during covid. Of course all the household gains from those have been completely wiped out.

Ans we actually had elected leaders bragging about how many people were brought out of poverty by those checks.

 

[TheValley91]

It's actually quite comical when you think back to how excited everyone was when they were getting those checks during covid. Of course all the household gains from those have been completely wiped out.

Ans we actually had elected leaders bragging about how many people were brought out of poverty by those checks.

I know some people who used those to start new careers and it completely changed their life.

Anecdotal maybe but some did benefit for the better.