Deficit Spending for FY2019

[1Clemzunfan]

See the attached article from today in Fortune. At the 6 month mark of FY2019 we are trending toward a $1.4 Trillion deficit for this year.

That is 28% higher than was forecast for FY2019 by the CBO following the signing of the tax cuts. We were already expected to increase the debt to $1.09T this year, which was a stark increase. But it appears we are going to blow by that number. We are now approaching the annual debt levels we were putting up during the height of the financial crisis, except we are now hitting those numbers with no financial crisis. Scary to think what the deficit will be when the next recession hits and we have no leverage to stimulate the economy.

As FYI, annual debt levels since the financial crisis for comparison.

2009 - $1.41 Trillion
2010 - $1.29 Trillion
2011 - $1.30 Trillion
2012 - $1.08 Trillion
2013 - $680 Billion
2014 - $485 Billion
2015 - $442 Billion
2016 - $585 Billion
2017 - $665 Billion
2018 - $779 Billion
2019 - $1.4 Trillion (projected based on 6 mos)

 

[Paws14]

Doubling from 2018. Is that good?

 

[Bosse de Nage]

#YANGGANG

 

[GoodWord28]

So, people aren't spending all this extra money in their paycheck and corporations aren't increasing salaries?



Who knew?

 

[scotchtiger]

Cut spending. Start with #1 - Entitlements.

 

[OrangeForever]

Trickle down economics are a hilarious Ponzi scheme

 

[MBRO]

Cut spending. Start with #1 - Entitlements.

Or maybe don’t cut revenue in the first place without cutting spending,

 

[wmnesbitt]

But we could sure use government funded healthcare.

 

[dwlawton]

No leverage to stimulate the economy? The Fed will just print more money. Is that good IMO? No way, but that is what will be done.

 

[1Clemzunfan]

Or maybe don’t cut revenue in the first place without cutting spending,

This...

 

[clemben]

Cut spending. Start with #1 - Entitlements.

No. No. I was promised the tax cut would pay for itself. Just wait--the Republicans promised and they are so honest and Trump is the best with the money and the winning. GDP! GDP!

And don't forget--even with the deficits Republicans could increase military spending and pay billions for a wall, so there isn't any need to cut anything when we can spend on these things.

Just keep winning! (oh and judges!)

Oh--did I miss my cue to start worrying about the deficit?? Ahh..yes, the Republicans are in the minority now, NOW we can think about debt and how we can use it as a weapon to get rid of things we don't like. Forgive me for the above, totally forgot about the classic Republican pivot. We are so predictable to the point of almost being disingenuous and dishonest, but--hey, keep winning!

 

[MacDaddy93]

https://www.thebalance.com/current-u-s-federal-government-spending-3305763

So which budget cuts do you suggest ?

See the attached article from today in Fortune. At the 6 month mark of FY2019 we are trending toward a $1.4 Trillion deficit for this year.

That is 28% higher than was forecast for FY2019 by the CBO following the signing of the tax cuts. We were already expected to increase the debt to $1.09T this year, which was a stark increase. But it appears we are going to blow by that number. We are now approaching the annual debt levels we were putting up during the height of the financial crisis, except we are now hitting those numbers with no financial crisis. Scary to think what the deficit will be when the next recession hits and we have no leverage to stimulate the economy.

As FYI, annual debt levels since the financial crisis for comparison.

2009 - $1.41 Trillion
2010 - $1.29 Trillion
2011 - $1.30 Trillion
2012 - $1.08 Trillion
2013 - $680 Billion
2014 - $485 Billion
2015 - $442 Billion
2016 - $585 Billion
2017 - $665 Billion
2018 - $779 Billion
2019 - $1.4 Trillion (projected based on 6 mos)

 

[ClemTigers83]

No. No. I was promised the tax cut would pay for itself. Just wait--the Republicans promised and they are so honest and Trump is the best with the money and the winning. GDP! GDP!

And don't forget--even with the deficits Republicans could increase military spending and pay billions for a wall, so there isn't any need to cut anything when we can spend on these things.

Just keep winning! (oh and judges!)

Oh--did I miss my cue to start worrying about the deficit?? Ahh..yes, the Republicans are in the minority now, NOW we can think about debt and how we can use it as a weapon to get rid of things we don't like. Forgive me for the above, totally forgot about the classic Republican pivot. We are so predictable to the point of almost being disingenuous and dishonest, but--hey, keep winning!

Both sides suck calm your ass down

 

[Cabotiger]

 

[TigerGrowls]

Or maybe don’t cut revenue in the first place without cutting spending,

Federal revenues in 2018 hit all time highs under Trump tax plans, but spending still out paced.

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/trump-tax-cuts-federal-revenues-deficits/

The interest payment on the national debt alone will be more than all military spending within 5 years and entitlements are of course an issue that will continue to play out let alone all the money wasted on crazy programs and the hundreds of billions of dollars that illegal immigration is costing. This is a freight train out of control regardless of democrat or republican control. Honestly, I see a world economic crash and a total reset of the financial system coming within next 5 to 7 years. I love what Trump is doing, but this problem has been building for a long time and the improvements he has made are just slowing it down. Will be an interesting ride to see how it plays out.

 

[clemben]

Both sides suck calm your ass down

Don't think I said otherwise...friend.

 

[andcam]

See the attached article from today in Fortune. At the 6 month mark of FY2019 we are trending toward a $1.4 Trillion deficit for this year.

That is 28% higher than was forecast for FY2019 by the CBO following the signing of the tax cuts. We were already expected to increase the debt to $1.09T this year, which was a stark increase. But it appears we are going to blow by that number. We are now approaching the annual debt levels we were putting up during the height of the financial crisis, except we are now hitting those numbers with no financial crisis. Scary to think what the deficit will be when the next recession hits and we have no leverage to stimulate the economy.

As FYI, annual debt levels since the financial crisis for comparison.

2009 - $1.41 Trillion
2010 - $1.29 Trillion
2011 - $1.30 Trillion
2012 - $1.08 Trillion
2013 - $680 Billion
2014 - $485 Billion
2015 - $442 Billion
2016 - $585 Billion
2017 - $665 Billion
2018 - $779 Billion
2019 - $1.4 Trillion (projected based on 6 mos)

GOP hated deficit and raising debt ceiling with Obama in office. Now with Trump in office , the deficit is about as big a deal as climate change or funding immigrant healthcare.

 

[VeniceTiger]

See the attached article from today in Fortune. At the 6 month mark of FY2019 we are trending toward a $1.4 Trillion deficit for this year.

That is 28% higher than was forecast for FY2019 by the CBO following the signing of the tax cuts. We were already expected to increase the debt to $1.09T this year, which was a stark increase. But it appears we are going to blow by that number. We are now approaching the annual debt levels we were putting up during the height of the financial crisis, except we are now hitting those numbers with no financial crisis. Scary to think what the deficit will be when the next recession hits and we have no leverage to stimulate the economy.

As FYI, annual debt levels since the financial crisis for comparison.

2009 - $1.41 Trillion
2010 - $1.29 Trillion
2011 - $1.30 Trillion
2012 - $1.08 Trillion
2013 - $680 Billion
2014 - $485 Billion
2015 - $442 Billion
2016 - $585 Billion
2017 - $665 Billion
2018 - $779 Billion
2019 - $1.4 Trillion (projected based on 6 mos)

The party of small government. Well at least we have an experienced financial genius like Herman ****ing Cain to lead the fed during our next recession.

 

[rogue booster]

The party of small government. Well at least we have an experienced financial genius like Herman ****ing Cain to lead the fed during our next recession.

Yikes

 

[sregit18]

Trickle down economics are a hilarious Ponzi scheme

Key to this equation is govt spending not the tax cuts. The govt spending side of the coin is as far from “trickle down” economics as I am to being Dabo’s next QB.

 

[TunaSafari]

Thanks Obama

 

[sregit18]

GOP hated deficit and raising debt ceiling with Obama in office. Now with Trump in office , the deficit is about as big a deal as climate change or funding immigrant healthcare.

I would love to be able to elect a true fiscal conservative. Sadly I am not sure I’ve actually witnessed one in 44 years.

 

[OrangeBaron]

Trickle down economics are a hilarious Ponzi scheme

You idiot, we shattered the record for revenue coming into the federal government you dope. We MUST cut spending. MUST cut entitlements. They are and will continue to accelerate. Facts are a stubborn thing. Again, and I will type slowly for you and the leftist regressives...revenue into the federal government is at an all time H I G H. Understand or should I type slower?

 

[sregit18]

https://www.thebalance.com/current-u-s-federal-government-spending-3305763

So which budget cuts do you suggest ?

SSI spending would be first. When it started the life span of the retiree to draw that benefit was roughly 5 years for a man. That duration of a man drawing SSI has roughly tripled and we have not made any significant changes to SSI. That alone will bankrupt the program and we haven’t even considered the demographic shifts.

 

[PAWrocka]

So, people aren't spending all this extra money in their paycheck and corporations aren't increasing salaries?



Who knew?

After looking at what I owe this year in comparison to my refund from past years, and of course considering what I received “more” in my paycheck the last year... I’m getting a tax break of approximately $35 a month



..... wow ......

 

[rjohn19]

No. No. I was promised the tax cut would pay for itself. Just wait--the Republicans promised and they are so honest and Trump is the best with the money and the winning. GDP! GDP!

And don't forget--even with the deficits Republicans could increase military spending and pay billions for a wall, so there isn't any need to cut anything when we can spend on these things.

Just keep winning! (oh and judges!)

Oh--did I miss my cue to start worrying about the deficit?? Ahh..yes, the Republicans are in the minority now, NOW we can think about debt and how we can use it as a weapon to get rid of things we don't like. Forgive me for the above, totally forgot about the classic Republican pivot. We are so predictable to the point of almost being disingenuous and dishonest, but--hey, keep winning!

Economics is called the "dismal" science because every time they figure things out, everything changes. There was a time when inflation was defined as an increase in the money supply. So about 9 trillion printed since 2008 worldwide and no sign of inflation anywhere.

Huge tax cuts which should put more money on the street and fulfill the more traditional definition of inflation which is too many dollars seeking too few goods. Still no serious inflation. What gives?

The overwhelming bulk of that money (including all the growth in general since 2008) has gone to the very top who rule the GOP and fair number of Dems and who, as a rule, don't spend it on things- they just park it offshore and take it all to Wall Street casino from there. The biggest GOP lie (of hundreds) is that you shouldn't tax the job creators. They only invest jobs when the rest of us money to buy more of their product. Demand is the only thing that creates jobs.

So why do they limit the money to the bottom two-third (or 99% depending on the thing you wish to stimulate)? Because back when Keynesian economics had all the answer to prosperity for all (you know- think MAGA) and labor was strong, increased wages in the hands of the spending class did lead to high inflation (not going down the stagflation wormhole- no time) which was great for a whole lot of people like homeowners and other borrowers but dreadful for the big banks who were getting their loans paid back with play money. After we got back to some form of normal, the new mantra of Fed became no more inflation to protect the banks.

So you are correct in that we have levered ourselves out of future fiscal stimulus (tax cuts and government spending) and the fed can't really cut interest rates much for monetary stimulus leaving only the quantitative-easing printing press and we've already seen none of that gets to where it is needed most. The next big oops could be a doozy.

 

[rogue booster]

Economics is called the "dismal" science because every time they figure things out, everything changes. There was a time when inflation was defined as an increase in the money supply. So about 9 trillion printed since 2008 worldwide and no sign of inflation anywhere.

Huge tax cuts which should put more money on the street and fulfill the more traditional definition of inflation which is too many dollars seeking too few goods. Still no serious inflation. What gives?

The overwhelming bulk of that money (including all the growth in general since 2008) has gone to the very top who rule the GOP and fair number of Dems and who, as a rule, don't spend it on things- they just park it offshore and take it all to Wall Street casino from there. The biggest GOP lie (of hundreds) is that you shouldn't tax the job creators. They only invest jobs when the rest of us money to buy more of their product. Demand is the only thing that creates jobs.

So why do they limit the money to the bottom two-third (or 99% depending on the thing you wish to stimulate)? Because back when Keynesian economics had all the answer to prosperity for all (you know- think MAGA) and labor was strong, increased wages in the hands of the spending class did lead to high inflation (not going down the stagflation wormhole- no time) which was great for a whole lot of people like homeowners and other borrowers but dreadful for the big banks who were getting their loans paid back with play money. After we got back to some form of normal, the new mantra of Fed became no more inflation to protect the banks.

So you are correct in that we have levered ourselves out of future fiscal stimulus (tax cuts and government spending) and the fed can't really cut interest rates much for monetary stimulus leaving only the quantitative-easing printing press and we've already seen none of that gets to where it is needed most. The next big oops could be a doozy.

The dual mandate of the Fed remains unchanged and unachievable.

 

[dbjork6317]

Cut spending. Start with #1 - Entitlements.

Maybe cut spending and then cut taxes?

 

[CU_TrialLawyer]

Federal revenues in 2018 hit all time highs under Trump tax plans, but spending still out paced.

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/trump-tax-cuts-federal-revenues-deficits/

The interest payment on the national debt alone will be more than all military spending within 5 years and entitlements are of course an issue that will continue to play out let alone all the money wasted on crazy programs and the hundreds of billions of dollars that illegal immigration is costing. This is a freight train out of control regardless of democrat or republican control. Honestly, I see a world economic crash and a total reset of the financial system coming within next 5 to 7 years. I love what Trump is doing, but this problem has been building for a long time and the improvements he has made are just slowing it down. Will be an interesting ride to see how it plays out.

Medicare and SS are not entitlements. You pay for them. Literally every paycheck.

 

[johnhugh]

So, people aren't spending all this extra money in their paycheck and corporations aren't increasing salaries?



Who knew?

But I thought when you gave CEOs more money they would redistribute it back to their employees? And when the rich make more money instead of just being wealthier they go and spend it?

It’s incredible that people actually believe this. Had a nice trend of lowering the deficit under Obama. Dems always have to clean up the republican mess they inherit

 

[The Orange Wave]

So, people aren't spending all this extra money in their paycheck and corporations aren't increasing salaries?



Who knew?

Neither of which are true. Consumer spending is growing and real wages are growing at the fastest rate in the last 20 years. BofA just set their corporate minimum wage at $20/hr and many companies have set theirs at $15/hr.

The unemployment rate is at historic levels, as are job openings and unemployment claims.

But don’t let the facts get in your way. The problem is not consumers/corporations it is entitlement spending on social security and health care. It does not matter how much you tax people and companies if you don’t find a way to control those two costs which neither party has the appetite to do.

 

[1Clemzunfan]

https://www.thebalance.com/current-u-s-federal-government-spending-3305763

So which budget cuts do you suggest ?

That is a good resource for people to read through. Hopefully they do. This particular part is especially unnerving...

Interest Payments on the National Debt
In FY 2020, interest payments on the national debt are estimated at $479 billion. That's enough to pay for 10 Justice Departments. It's also one of the fastest growing expenses.

By 2029, it will more than double to $823 billion, becoming the third-largest budget item after Social Security and Medicare. It's not a mandatory program, but it must be paid to avoid a U.S. debt default. These estimates will increase as interest rates continue rising.

We are spending over $1 billion a day on interest from the debt. That will be $3 billion per day in 10 years, and probably more. The truth is we cant tackle this problem with only spending cuts. And we can't do it by focusing on welfare, which so many uneducated people seem to think has enough waste to account for our deficit spending. The truth is we must address revenue and spending both. The tax bill just passed was one of the single worst pieces of legislation ever. We must cut spending and raise revenues (taxes) in a strategic manner.

Unfortunately, I do not see any political climate that will allow for that. Why? Because the voters dont understand the problem.

 

[Clemson81]

Or maybe don’t cut revenue in the first place without cutting spending,

Brilliant idea. But when all the politicians refuse to cut anything in order to keep their jobs, we just keep raising taxes to cover.

Term limits for Congress is where you start.

 

[hughscott]

See the attached article from today in Fortune. At the 6 month mark of FY2019 we are trending toward a $1.4 Trillion deficit for this year.

That is 28% higher than was forecast for FY2019 by the CBO following the signing of the tax cuts. We were already expected to increase the debt to $1.09T this year, which was a stark increase. But it appears we are going to blow by that number. We are now approaching the annual debt levels we were putting up during the height of the financial crisis, except we are now hitting those numbers with no financial crisis. Scary to think what the deficit will be when the next recession hits and we have no leverage to stimulate the economy.

As FYI, annual debt levels since the financial crisis for comparison.

2009 - $1.41 Trillion
2010 - $1.29 Trillion
2011 - $1.30 Trillion
2012 - $1.08 Trillion
2013 - $680 Billion
2014 - $485 Billion
2015 - $442 Billion
2016 - $585 Billion
2017 - $665 Billion
2018 - $779 Billion
2019 - $1.4 Trillion (projected based on 6 mos)

The country has a spending problem not a revenue problem and no one on any side wants to fix it
This is a problem that has built up for decades

 

[trich24]

#ThanksObama

 

[MBRO]

Federal revenues in 2018 hit all time highs under Trump tax plans, but spending still out paced.

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/trump-tax-cuts-federal-revenues-deficits/

The interest payment on the national debt alone will be more than all military spending within 5 years and entitlements are of course an issue that will continue to play out let alone all the money wasted on crazy programs and the hundreds of billions of dollars that illegal immigration is costing. This is a freight train out of control regardless of democrat or republican control. Honestly, I see a world economic crash and a total reset of the financial system coming within next 5 to 7 years. I love what Trump is doing, but this problem has been building for a long time and the improvements he has made are just slowing it down. Will be an interesting ride to see how it plays out.

You idiot, we shattered the record for revenue coming into the federal government you dope. We MUST cut spending. MUST cut entitlements. They are and will continue to accelerate. Facts are a stubborn thing. Again, and I will type slowly for you and the leftist regressives...revenue into the federal government is at an all time H I G H. Understand or should I type slower?

As the link @TigerGrowls mentions, overall revenue increased by 0.5% or $14 billion dollars. Spending increased by $127 billion.

You can argue that spending is THE issue (and I agree it’s one), but that money was budgeted to be spent long before the tax cuts. They knew that they wouldn’t be able to cover the shortfall.

The deficit will perpetually be “the next guy’s problem”. There is nothing political advantageous about dealing with it while in office.

 

[1Clemzunfan]

You idiot, we shattered the record for revenue coming into the federal government you dope. We MUST cut spending. MUST cut entitlements. They are and will continue to accelerate. Facts are a stubborn thing. Again, and I will type slowly for you and the leftist regressives...revenue into the federal government is at an all time H I G H. Understand or should I type slower?

You dont get it. Revenues are almost always higher, year over year, unless we are in a significant recession. We have broken revenue records consistently throughout our nation's history thanks to basic inflation and unavoidable economic growth. The problem is that revenue growth rates have slowed to almost nothing and are not even coming close to keeping pace with inflation. Last years revenue growth was almost stagnant and it is startling to see considering that it happened when we weren't in the midst of a financial crisis.

See the snapshot below...

• FY 2018 - $3.33 trillion.
• FY 2017 - $3.32 trillion.
• FY 2016 - $3.27 trillion.
• FY 2015 - $3.25 trillion.
• FY 2014 - $3.02 trillion.
• FY 2013 - $2.77 trillion.
• FY 2012 - $2.45 trillion.
• FY 2011 - $2.30 trillion.
• FY 2010 - $2.16 trillion.
• FY 2009 - $2.10 trillion.

So if it makes you feel better to say revenues are at an all time high, go right ahead and say it. But it makes you sound ignorant because we have set revenue records over 90% of the years in our nation's history. Basic inflation mandates it. Are you boasting that Obama set a revenue record every year of his presidency, even during the early years coming out of the great recession?

Since 1960 we have set a revenue record every year except for 5. Those were deep recessionary years.

Adjusted for inflation, total revenues fell from FY2017 to FY2018. Adjusted for the size of the economy, they fell even more. Scary.

Consider this, without mandating one new dollar of spending, expenses will rise simply due to economic inflation. Revenues are the same. When revenue growth doesn't even keep pace with inflation, it is a revenue reduction. It doesnt matter if $1 more was made.

If I pay you $101 today, are you making more than someone who made $100, 25 years ago? Sure, $101 is greater than $100 but the time value of money shows that it is a considerable reduction in pay. Our revenues have not set records relative to economic growth. They have declined.

Also, one last thing. You have to look at revenues post tax cut relative to revenues that would have been generated had there have been no tax cut. The forecasted revenues for FY2018 without the tax cuts would have been higher than they were post tax cut. So, again, revenues fell.

If you generally get a 3% cost of living increase every year and your boss decides to up his salary and give you only a 0.5% increase, I doubt you would be bragging about how generous your boss is and that you are making the most you ever made in your career.

 

[allorangec]

Or maybe don’t cut revenue in the first place without cutting spending,

Revenue is at an all-time high. We are estimated at 3.44 trillion in revenue.

 

[allorangec]

You dont get it. Revenues are almost always higher, year over year, unless we are in a significant recession. We have broken revenue records consistently throughout our nation's history thanks to basic inflation. The problem is that revenue growth rates have slowed to almost nothing and are not even coming close to keeping pace with inflation. Last years revenue growth was almost stagnant and it is startling to see considering that it happened when we weren't in the midst of a financial crisis. See the snapshot below...

• FY 2018 - $3.33 trillion.
• FY 2017 - $3.32 trillion.
• FY 2016 - $3.27 trillion.
• FY 2015 - $3.25 trillion.
• FY 2014 - $3.02 trillion.
• FY 2013 - $2.77 trillion.
• FY 2012 - $2.45 trillion.
• FY 2011 - $2.30 trillion.
• FY 2010 - $2.16 trillion.
• FY 2009 - $2.10 trillion.

So if it makes you feel better to say revenues are at an all time high, go right ahead and say it. But it makes you sound ignorant because we have set revenue records over 90% of the years in our nation's history. Basic inflation mandates it. Are you boasting that Obama set a revenue record every year of his presidency, even during the early years coming out of the great recession?

Since 1960 we have set a revenue record every year except for 5. Those were deep recessionary years.

We almost slowed to no revenue growth last year and did it during what is supposed to be an economic boom. Scary.

Good point. The only concern is what type of tax increase would it take to keep up with spending? The government never makes cuts. We can complain about the deficit, but when has the government ever lowered its spending?

Since the answer is we will never cut spending. Then politicians are incentive to ignore the debt and just let someone else deal with it. The party that has to raise taxes to keep up with spending will be that party's last time in power for probably a decade.

 

[Game Well]

Just keep winning a natty here and there. I don’t care about the federal govt.