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Did/Can U of SC flatten their curve?

Intracoastal

Lake Baikal
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Jul 17, 2020
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U of SC covid dashboard
https://sc.edu/safety/coronavirus/dashboard/index.php

Still give them major props for setting aside the proper amount of quarantine housing and pushing forward. They are at 60% capacity but many of those initial cases should be exiting their quarantine. I can't pull for them in ANYTHING but I am making an exception here. They have a long way to go still and are not even close to being finished with this. However, If their numbers start to decline in the next week or so, then I would say they have probably succeeded which is good news for other colleges attempting to open up.

It's actually fascinating to follow what is happening there in what is truly a micro community case study where the subjects are going to be some of the worst social distancing offenders.
 
With their positive rate jumping from 16.6% to 26.3% in a matter of days, I'd guess they have quite a ways to go. I find it really odd that their alert level is "low" when over 1/4 of their tests are positive.
 
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With their positive rate jumping from 16.6% to 26.3% in a matter of days, I'd guess they have quite a ways to go. I find it really odd that their alert level is "low" when over 1/4 of their tests are positive.
It's going to be amazing to follow it. College kids are not going to change their habits. The "herd" immunity theory will work or completely fail.
 
Solution: Start school end of September and let college kids roam free for the first two weeks of the month so it passes through the mass population. During this period, anyone who’s considered high risk should be designated to certain housing and/or provided resources they need to avoid contact.
 
You would think they know exactly what they are doing since they have the scientists and medical professionals from MUSC to guide them.
 
U of SC covid dashboard
https://sc.edu/safety/coronavirus/dashboard/index.php

Still give them major props for setting aside the proper amount of quarantine housing and pushing forward. They are at 60% capacity but many of those initial cases should be exiting their quarantine. I can't pull for them in ANYTHING but I am making an exception here. They have a long way to go still and are not even close to being finished with this. However, If their numbers start to decline in the next week or so, then I would say they have probably succeeded which is good news for other colleges attempting to open up.

It's actually fascinating to follow what is happening there in what is truly a micro community case study where the subjects are going to be some of the worst social distancing offenders.
So how many of those 1000 students have 1) been hospitalized, and 2) died?

I'm betting the answer is less than 25, and zero.
 
You would think they know exactly what they are doing since they have the scientists and medical professionals from MUSC to guide them.
Yes they have medical people to guide them from U of SC school of medicine but probably not from MUSC unless they asked a completely different school for help. Plausable I suppose.
 
he just needs to keep it at arms length

Not socially distanced enough. Maybe Ray + Tacko Fall

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You do realize that most of their classes are online right now, right?
58% undergrad
87% graduate

These are the %s of face to face or hybrid. There are a lot less than half their courses that are remote only.

Either way just about all the students are on campus and living in dorms or off campus housing.
 
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Clemson cases are about to explode. My daughter has 2 roommates positive this week. 2 others have tests pending. She knows of 6 others positive this week. It cannot be controlled in college kids because they aren’t going to isolate but at least they handle it much better than elderly. Hoping for herd immunity as that’s the only answer.
 
I thought they had medication to flatten the curves of cocks.
 
Clemson cases are about to explode. My daughter has 2 roommates positive this week. 2 others have tests pending. She knows of 6 others positive this week. It cannot be controlled in college kids because they aren’t going to isolate but at least they handle it much better than elderly. Hoping for herd immunity as that’s the only answer.
Be sure to have them get their Antibody test...
 
It's going to be amazing to follow it. College kids are not going to change their habits. The "herd" immunity theory will work or completely fail.

One thing about herd immunity to think about... if we look at the numbers (CDC from yesterday 9/1). We get 6,004,443 total cases and 183,050 deaths. I've heard (pun intended) that herd immunity starts to work at > 70% of the population infected. Let's call it 75% or 3/4ths for nice math. According to the Census Bureau the current population of the US is 330,000,000 and change. So for herd immunity to take effect we'd need about 247,000,000 infected. 183K deaths out of 6,000,000 is around a 3% death rate. We can all agree that the total number of cases is MUCH higher. So just for giggles, let's drop the death rate down by a factor of six and call it 0.5% (or if you are a glass half full person... a 99.5 chance of surviving). That's still about 1.25 million people dying to get to herd immunity. That's a hell of a butcher's bill.
 
Amazing how many people don't know this.

MUSC (medical university of south carolina)
U of SC school of medicine

Two completely different schools run independently of each other. Not affiliated with each other.
OK cool. Now I know. both probably have lots of doctors they can talk to though.
 
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One thing about herd immunity to think about... if we look at the numbers (CDC from yesterday 9/1). We get 6,004,443 total cases and 183,050 deaths. I've heard (pun intended) that herd immunity starts to work at > 70% of the population infected. Let's call it 75% or 3/4ths for nice math. According to the Census Bureau the current population of the US is 330,000,000 and change. So for herd immunity to take effect we'd need about 247,000,000 infected. 183K deaths out of 6,000,000 is around a 3% death rate. We can all agree that the total number of cases is MUCH higher. So just for giggles, let's drop the death rate down by a factor of six and call it 0.5% (or if you are a glass half full person... a 99.5 chance of surviving). That's still about 1.25 million people dying to get to herd immunity. That's a hell of a butcher's bill.
Are you still living in March? 70% herd immunity lmao, try 10-20%
 
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Are you still living in March? 70% herd immunity lmao

No, I actually looked up the information and got an accurate number (from John's Hopkins, in this case). Here my source:

Click

Cliff's notes on the above:
------------------------------
What is herd immunity?
When most of a population is immune to an infectious disease, this provides indirect protection—or herd immunity (also called herd protection)—to those who are not immune to the disease.

For example, if 80% of a population is immune to a virus, four out of every five people who encounter someone with the disease won’t get sick (and won’t spread the disease any further). In this way, the spread of infectious diseases is kept under control. Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 70% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity.
------------------------------
So you see, I was using numbers from the low end of the requirements. Where are your numbers coming from?

The way I understand things... Your 10-20% (let's call it 15%) herd immunity would slow the transmission rate by... 15%... That seems low for getting things under control...
 
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No, I actually looked up the information and got an accurate number (from John's Hopkins, in this case). Here my source:

Click

Cliff's notes on the above:
------------------------------
What is herd immunity?
When most of a population is immune to an infectious disease, this provides indirect protection—or herd immunity (also called herd protection)—to those who are not immune to the disease.

For example, if 80% of a population is immune to a virus, four out of every five people who encounter someone with the disease won’t get sick (and won’t spread the disease any further). In this way, the spread of infectious diseases is kept under control. Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 70% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity.
------------------------------
So you see, I was using numbers from the low end of the requirements. Where are your numbers coming from?

The way I understand things... Your 10-20% (let's call it 15%) herd immunity would slow the transmission rate by... 15%... That seems low for getting things under control...
Cases for every country/state/region have fallen off a cliff once they hit the 10-20% mark, unless you have any evidence otherwise. Over the last couple months doctors and scientists have admitted the herd immunity threshold is welllllll below the 70% number claimed back in March.
 
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models have shown that due to asymptomatic and very mild cases that are not tested for C19 you can multiply the numbers tested by 8x. European models have also shown a 20% herd immunity for C19.
Its all about what science you choose to believe. But all science I have read shows college age kids are not likely to get very sick from Covid 19.
 
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I'm not trying to stir up the masses by creating this thread. I'm simply saying that we should should all be hoping for them to achieve success and this is a great case study to follow.

It's about as controled of an experiment as you can have. College students are not the most responsible. It isn't going to change. Their behavior will largely remain unchanged throughout the entire experiment. If their numbers stabalize and decline given their usual haphazard behavior, then it is a ray of light and a path forward for other colleges and grade schools.
 
Incorrect
No, that is correct. If a class is hybrid, do you consider it in person even though they only go to one class a week? I do not. If 58% of classes are hybrid and they go to class 50% of normal maximum, I consider that 29% of classes are in person
 
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