For those interested, a real look at what happened and why in the election

[ClemTigsCo]

I thought some on this board, from both sides of the aisle, would be interested in this analysis that some of my colleagues and I put together on what happened in November and why:

Election Insights 2020 D12.15.20.pdf (open link)

Other than responding to any questions that folks have on this, I'm going to take a little break from this board. I realize that I've gotten a bit too heated lately, and I apologize to those who were the focus of that wrath.

Happy Holidays to everyone, even the haters and losers (as Trump would say)!

 

[clemsontiger02]

 

[ClemTigsCo]

Ha! I shall return, just need a pause for my own mental health.

 

[jakefest]

That document is actually very interesting, thanks for sharing. One of the more interesting (and yet probably the most contested) stats is that Trump out performed Obama and yet Biden came over the top of both. That will either be viewed as a pretty amazing testament to voter turnout in this election or the basis for foul play depending on folks might stand for legitimacy........... and likely for years to come.

For the data points you use/used, is there an official repository/collection of content the public has access to or is this all based on post election research? The down ballot stuff is a pretty interesting stat in my opinion. Would love to see more comparison against other elections. (not sure if you had that in your presentation as I haven't made it all the way through yet)

 

[ClemTigsCo]

That document is actually very interesting, thanks for sharing. One of the more interesting (and yet probably the most contested) stats is that Trump out performed Obama and yet Biden came over the top of both. That will either be viewed as a pretty amazing testament to voter turnout in this election or the basis for foul play depending on folks might stand for legitimacy........... and likely for years to come.

For the data points you use/used, is there an official repository/collection of content the public has access to or is this all based on post election research? The down ballot stuff is a pretty interesting stat in my opinion. Would love to see more comparison against other elections. (not sure if you had that in your presentation as I haven't made it all the way through yet)

About 95% of this deck is all public info. The other 5% is from our post-election survey.

mad to your point about turnout - this is what we knew was going to happen 3 years ago. Views on Trump are so strong that we knew this would shatter turnout records because both his supporters and opponents would turn out in record numbers.

Frankly, one of the reasons I, personally, was surprised that Biden didn’t win by more is because all of our pre-election surveys said that while both anti-and pro-Trump voters were very motivated, anti-Trump voters were more so.
In the end, that didn’t turn out to be true. They were equally motivated. But anyone paying attention knew turnout would be off the charts either way.

 

[TigerGrowls]

I thought some on this board, from both sides of the aisle, would be interested in this analysis that some of my colleagues and I put together on what happened in November and why:

Election Insights 2020 D12.15.20.pdf (open link)

Other than responding to any questions that folks have on this, I'm going to take a little break from this board. I realize that I've gotten a bit too heated lately, and I apologize to those who were the focus of that wrath.

Happy Holidays to everyone, even the haters and losers (as Trump would say)!

Nice regurgitation of the fake stats on a powerpoint.