Alabama, Ohio State top 2016 College Football Future Power Rankings
Alabama leads the ESPN College Football Future Power Rankings, but Clemson and Michigan are looking to close the gap. ESPN Illustration
Jul 5, 2016
Welcome back, Alabama. After being overtaken by Ohio State for the top spot in2015, the Tide have returned as the No. 1 team in the College Football Future Power Rankings.
First, a refresher: FPR is a projection of a program's strength over the next three years, not just the 2016 season. An eight-person panel of ESPN reporters and analysts -- Heather Dinich, Brad Edwards, Travis Haney, Sharon Katz, Tom Luginbill, Ted Miller, Adam Rittenberg and Mark Schlabach -- graded teams based on five criteria, which were weighed differently to account for their impact on overall sustained success. The criteria: coaching (27 percent of the formula), current talent (27 percent), recruiting (20 percent), title path (16 percent) and program foundation (10 percent).
College Football Future Power Rankings: Methodology[/paste:font]
A detailed look at the categories and weighting for the 2016 edition of the College Football Future Power Rankings.
One team you won't find is Baylor. The Bears climbed from No. 24 in 2013 to 19th in 2014 and then reached 14th in 2015. But the program plummeted in these rankings after the university and athletic department become engulfed in a scandal involving the handling of sexual assault cases.
Beginning with the reigning national champions, here is the top 25 of the 2016 College Football Future Power Rankings:
Go to: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25
Alabama
SCORE RANK
Coaching 10 T-1st
Current Talent 10 1st
Recruiting 9.9 T-1st
Title Path 8.5 T-3rd
Foundation 8.5 T-3rd
Overall: 97.30
After a fourth national championship in seven seasons, it's clear Nick Saban has perfected the "process," implementing a successful flowchart combining all elements of recruitment, development and NFL placement. This is a special, dynastic run, and as we were reminded last season, it isn't over yet.
High category: Coaching
This spring, Saban reiterated to ESPN's Chris Low his intention to remain at Alabama. The sentiment that he would leave for the NFL -- or another high-end college gig, such as Texas -- seems to be on the wane.
"If I had to bet on whether he'll be retired five years from now, I'd be leaning toward yes at the moment," FPR panelist Brad Edwards said. "But I expect Alabama to be a fixture in the top three of these rankings for as long as he's there."
Ohio State
SCORE RANK
Coaching 10 T-1st
Current Talent 9.3 5th
Recruiting 9.9 T-1st
Title Path 8.4 5th
Foundation 9.8 2nd
Overall: 95.15
Ohio State has not fallen out of the top three in the four years we've compiled FPR.
High category: Coaching
Last season, ESPN's Mark Schlabach noted that Urban Meyer is 1B to Saban's 1A among the best coaches in college football. That hasn't changed. Meyer might not say the word "process" as much as Saban, but Meyer has his own patented system of success.
It was clear in 2015 that OSU missed former coordinator Tom Herman's influence on the offense. Agents, however, tell Insider that they expect a bounce-back year from Herman's replacement, Tim Beck, now that the quarterback back-and-forth between J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones is no longer an issue.
Florida State
SCORE RANK
Coaching 9.0 7th
Current Talent 9.9 2nd
Recruiting 9.9 T-1st
Title Path 9.0 T-1st
Foundation 9.4 3rd
Overall: 94.63
FSU and Ohio State are the only non-SEC programs to win a national title since '05. Coaches agree there are few things more challenging than replacing a legend, which makes Jimbo Fisher's work exemplary since replacing Bobby Bowden. The Seminoles remain the standard in the ACC.
High category: Recruiting
FSU is on par with any program in terms of talent and recruiting. The Seminoles landed Recruiting Nation's No. 1-ranked class in February, and they finished second in 2015 and third in 2014.
"I love how much [Fisher] believes in his recruiting approach," Rittenberg said. "He doesn't have to adjust to anyone else's. FSU has almost no social media presence and they still sign top-10 classes every year.
"Clemson's rise under Dabo Swinney is a concern in the ACC, but Florida State still should have more elite talent in many years."
Proximity is an obvious key; the Noles are better-positioned for talent in target-rich Florida.
Jameis Winston situation, which didn't help Jimbo's perception and likely soured his on the media."
Stand down, #FSUTwitter. There is a positive coming.
"But he's a heck of a coach, and he can win more national titles at Florida State," Rittenberg said.
Clemson
SCORE RANK
Coaching 8.8 8th
Current Talent 9.4 4th
Recruiting 9.3 5th
Title Path 9.0 T-1st
Foundation 9.1 T-4th
Overall: 91.24
A playoff appearance led to a three-position bump for the Tigers, but they're still second in their own division. FSU remains a giant roadblock to Clemson's continued ascendancy. However, talent has flooded into the program thanks to aggressive recruiting efforts, and the gap between the Tigers and Seminoles is narrowing.
High category: Recruiting
Clemson's recruiting score has risen a full point in the past two years -- the Tigers registered the eighth-rated class in 2016 and the fourth-ranked class in 2015, their highest since 2008. ESPN recruiting expert Tom Luginbill said the in-state talent in the Palmetto State is not always enough to buoy a class. But this staff has excelled at winning out-of-state battles, particularly in neighboring Georgia and Florida.
Deshaun Watsonhelped ensure the offense's continuity, and Morris' replacement, Tony Elliott, proved perfectly capable in his new role. Credit also goes to the work Venables did with a defense that returned only about half its starting cast. There is similar attrition this season, and the panel is confident in his ability to retool this unit for another playoff run.
Michigan
SCORE RANK
Coaching 9.2 T-5th
Current Talent 8.1 T-11th
Recruiting 9.0 T-7th
Title Path 8.0 6th
Foundation 9.1 T-4th
Overall: 86.61
Jim Harbaugh's arrival has stirred up the passion and energy of a program that was in desperate need of both. It hasn't taken Harbaugh long to effect change on the field as well -- the Wolverines jumped 10 spots from a year ago, and they checked in at No. 20 in 2014.
High category: Recruiting
Whether it's chugging milk or climbing trees -- or sleepovers at recruits' homes or his ballyhooed satellite camps -- Harbaugh has made his presence felt most acutely in the recruiting department. The Wolverines signed the sixth-rated class in February and have continued to dominate headlines on the trail this offseason.
1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25
LSU
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.3 T-17th
Current Talent 9.6 3rd
Recruiting 9.7 4th
Title Path 7.8 T-9th
Foundation 8.6 T-9th
Overall: 86.11
This is the Tigers' lowest finish in the four years of FPR. They've dropped a spot each year, sinking in 2016 largely due to a lack of faith in Les Miles' job security, which is not an unfair assessment considering the near coup last November.
High category: Recruiting
Without an in-state rival on the Power 5 level, LSU has incredible access to high-end recruits and extreme brand visibility. Going to LSU is the presumed next step for many Louisiana recruits; it's often considered an upset if a prospect leaves the state.
Stanford
SCORE RANK
Coaching 9.2 T-5th
Current Talent 8.0 15th
Recruiting 8.1 T-16th
Title Path 7.9 T-7th
Foundation 8.6 T-9th
Overall: 83.88
On the heels of a conference title and boasting the return of the Heisman Trophy runner-up, Christian McCaffrey, the Cardinal leaped 13 spots from last year's rankings.
Maybe it's even time to put to rest all those David Shaw-to-the-NFL rumors.
High category: Coaching
ESPN NFL insiders Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen have repeatedly mentioned, including this past January, that Shaw is a prime target for NFL organizations. But ESPN's Ted Miller has the impression that the feeling is not mutual at this point.
"I think there's some coaching stability [at Stanford]," Miller said. "[Shaw] makes a strong case why he likes it there. One reason is that he wants to eventually be able to send his kids to Stanford. It's kind of a golden ticket that he has. And it's his alma mater. I feel like we've reached a point where there's consistency and a comfort that Shaw is going to stay."
Oklahoma
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.8 No. 12
Current Talent 8.4 T-8th
Recruiting 8.4 T-12th
Title Path 8.5 T-3rd
Foundation 9.1 T-4th
Overall: 83.24
A playoff appearance and a first outright Big 12 title since 2010 resulted in a jump of nine spots for the Sooners. There's renewed optimism about OU's place in the Big 12.
High category: Foundation
The Sooners boast rich history and strong brand recognition, but their best quality continues to be administrative continuity, an increasingly rare concept in the modern game.
School president David Boren has been in place since 1994. AD Joe Castiglione was hired in 1998. Castiglione hired Bob Stoops the following year. Whenever there has been interest from other programs, Stoops has pointed to the relationship he has with his bosses.
Baker Mayfield led to Riley's winning the Broyles Award as the country's top assistant.
"I think they've got a little mojo going right now," Luginbill said. "I think Bob Stoops probably doesn't get the credit he deserves for sustaining [success] for a long period of time in an era that's becoming more and more difficult."
Notre Dame
SCORE RANK
Coaching 8.4 No. 9
Current Talent 8.1 T-11th
Recruiting 8.5 T-9th
Title Path 7.8 T-9th
Foundation 8.9 7th
Overall: 82.93
The Irish continue to reside just outside the top tier in FPR. They're not far off the pace, though: They played for a national title in 2012, and they would have had a strong playoff case if they'd beaten Stanford in last year's regular-season finale. Brian Kelly has at least put Notre Dame back in the national conversation on a consistent basis.
High category: Coaching
With 55 victories (in six seasons), Kelly is behind only Frank Leahy, Ara Parseghian, Lou Holtz and Knute Rockne on the school's all-time wins list. Decent company, right?
Michigan State
SCORE RANK
Coaching 9.4 3rd
Current Talent 7.3 T-20th
Recruiting 7.4 T-19th
Title Path 7.6 T-13th
Foundation 8.6 T-9th
Overall: 80.65
The Spartans took another step forward in 2015, earning the program's first playoff berth and, in the process, unseating the prohibitive playoff favorite. In fact, Michigan State has stymied Ohio State in the Big Ten twice in the past three years.
So why isn't Michigan State considered the bigger threat to OSU in the division?
High category: Coaching
Mark Dantonio's score was third behind only Saban and Meyer. MSU's playoff run required overcoming a rash of injuries and the loss of longtime defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi to Pitt.
"I fully expected them to take some kind of a step back," Schlabach said. "I think they're definitely there to stay. Everyone talks about Harbaugh as the one who's going to catch Ohio State, but in the end it could be Michigan State."
1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25
Florida
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.4 T-14th
Current Talent 8.3 10th
Recruiting 8.4 T-12th
Title Path 7.8 T-9th
Foundation 8.8 8th
Overall: 80.47
Florida moved up 10 places after a 10-win season in Jim McElwain's first year. But we're not completely sold on the Gators. Not yet, anyway.
"They barely beat Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Florida Atlantic," Katz pointed out.
Added Edwards: "They were running on fumes by the end of the season. You can't blame McElwain for [quarterback] Will Grier being suspended, but I didn't see any concrete evidence that Florida is back. No. 11 seems a little high to me without stronger on-field results."
Georgia
SCORE RANK
Coaching 6.6 24th
Current Talent 8.4 T-8th
Recruiting 9.0 T-7th
Title Path 7.9 T-7th
Foundation 8.3 T-14th
Overall: 79.44
Kirby Smart has returned to his home state to take over at his alma mater. Our panel isn't entirely sure what to make of the change. Many college football observers are similarly confused.
"I don't think they got that one right," a Power 5 coach told Insider this spring. "Coach [Mark] Richt won a bunch of games -- and [Smart] hasn't coached a game.
High category: Recruiting
There's a horde of schools aggressively recruiting in the state, especially in the Atlanta area, but UGA is the only one that can boast status as its flagship university. Plus, Georgia Tech's high admissions standards essentially mean Georgia is running unopposed among in-state programs.
USC
SCORE RANK
Coaching 6.2 25th
Current Talent 8.9 6th
Recruiting 9.1 6th
Title Path 7.4 T-17th
Foundation 8.5 12th
Overall: 79.31
Clay Helton assumed the interim tag after Steve Sarkisian's abrupt dismissal last October and was given the full-time job shortly before the season ended. While there was great internal support for Helton, his promotion has faced criticism from those who believe USC is above hiring someone with no résumé as a head coach.
High category: Recruiting
Questions about the coaching staff aside, Luginbill said he was "stunned" to see USC rated this low simply because of the inherent resources in place.
"Everyone plays second fiddle to them in the entire conference," he said.
Tennessee
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.2 T-19th
Current Talent 8.5 7th
Recruiting 8.5 T-9th
Title Path 7.5 T-15th
Foundation 7.9 T-19th
Overall: 79.29
It's a modest two-position jump for a team that figures to be the odds-on SEC East favorite -- and a fringe playoff contender -- in 2016. The Volunteers still have to prove they're worthy of such hype after late-game collapses against Florida and Oklahoma marred their 2015 season.
Before any of those expectations begin to materialize, however, Tennessee has to beat division rival Florida for the first time since 2004.
"Expectations should be higher for the Vols, but they have to beat the Gators, period," Dinich said. "Losing 12 straight to Florida isn't the way to start the SEC season. That game will set the tone and show everyone if the SEC East favorites are to be taken seriously."
Jonathan Kongbo, the No. 1 overall juco prospect, joins breakout candidateKahlil McKenzie on a D-line that also includes All-America-level end Derek Barnett. In May, Jones' staff added eight commitments in a single day. The Vols are presently at No. 10 in ESPN's 2017 class rankings. If that holds, it would mean three top-10 classes in four years.
That's the formula to return the program to where it was during its heyday in the 1990s.
Low category: Coaching
Panelists are still waiting for the Vols to break through under Jones. Perhaps people are underestimating the arrival of new defensive coordinator Bob Shoop from Penn State.
Coaches told Insider all spring that his influence could be the difference between where the program is and where it wants to be. Shoop's Penn State and Vanderbilt defenses have been ranked an average of 14th in yards per play the past five seasons.
TCU
SCORE RANK
Coaching 9.3 4th
Current Talent 7.0 23rd
Recruiting 7.3 21st
Title Path 7.5 T-15th
Foundation 8.4 13th
Overall: 79.01
The Frogs fell three spots from 2015, but that doesn't necessarily seem indicative of the program's trajectory, especially considering Baylor's drop.
High category: Coaching
With Gary Patterson's stability and consistency -- he's averaged 9.5 wins for 15 seasons -- TCU appears well-situated for years to come in the Big 12. A statue of the 56-year-old Patterson recently went up just outside the school's renovated arena. That tells you what he's done to build the program.
1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25
UCLA
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.4 T-14th
Current Talent 8.1 T-11th
Recruiting 8.4 T-12th
Title Path 7.4 T-17th
Foundation 8.1 18th
Overall: 78.59
With 37 wins in four seasons, Jim Mora has elevated the Bruins into something more than just "the other college team" in Los Angeles. But questions remain as to whether the program is reaching its true potential.
High category: Current talent
A Pac-12 coach told Insider last summer that UCLA had more talent than any team in the Pac-12. "And it isn't close," he said, adding that USC's NCAA-mandated scholarship reductions allowed the Bruins to surpass the Trojans' talent level.
It's enough to wonder why UCLA hasn't been able to break through for at least a Rose Bowl appearance under Mora.
Josh Rosenthere, they'd continue to make some strides, but they just can't seem to put everything together."
Texas
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.0 21st
Current Talent 7.5 18th
Recruiting 8.5 T-9th
Title Path 7.6 T-13th
Foundation 8.2 17th
Overall: 76.51
It's a pivotal season for the wobbling-but-still-proud program. Coach Charlie Strong, entering his third year at Texas' helm, faces increasing pressure, while new coordinator Sterlin Gilbert has been tasked with revamping the stagnant offense.
Even if Strong is out by December, you'd think the Longhorns would be able to secure a reputable name in his place. But there is perhaps less confidence in AD Mike Perrin, who has never before worked in athletics, after watching him swing and miss on several candidates for the school's baseball opening.
Devin Duvernay, the No. 3 player at his position, figures to yield dividends this fall.
The talent level is increasing, without question. But will the staff have time to see it through? It all comes back to the offense, and particularly the quarterback position, where freshman Shane Buechele might become the starter.
"If their quarterback pans out," Luginbill said, "the rest of their roster is really good."
Low category: Coaching
Much like Will Muschamp's failed time at Florida, Strong erred with his initial OC hire. Shawn Watson could not get Texas' offense going, and Gilbert's appearance -- like Kurt Roper's in Muschamp's final year at UF -- might be too late.
There was a great deal of work to do once Strong arrived, but Texas went 6-6 in his first regular season and missed a bowl game last year. Regardless of the circumstances, that doesn't fly at a school with the depth of UT's resources.
Auburn Tigers
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.2 T-19th
Current Talent 8.1 T-11th
Recruiting 8.1 T-16th
Title Path 6.9 T-22nd
Foundation 7.9 T-19th
Overall: 76.45
This marks a precipitous drop for Auburn, FPR's No. 4 team in 2015, The Tigers were riding high with Muschamp in place as the new defensive coordinator and a breakout candidate at quarterback, Jeremy Johnson.
Muschamp is now at South Carolina and Johnson might be the third-team QB this fall. As a result, Auburn has lost all momentum.
Miami Hurricanes
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.4 T-14th
Current Talent 7.3 T-20th
Recruiting 8.3 15th
Title Path 7.8 T-9th
Foundation 7.2 25th
Overall: 75.97
Mark Richt's return to his alma mater has brought optimism that the Hurricanes can again return to prominence. At minimum, the ACC would surely appreciate if they can at least be more of a factor in the conference; this is not what was expected when "The U" was added in 2004.
Ole Miss Rebels
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.6 13th
Current Talent 7.9 16th
Recruiting 8.0 18th
Title Path 6.5 T-24th
Foundation 7.3 T-23rd
Overall: 75.55
The Rebels are on a serious roll on the field, having just won the Sugar Bowl and beaten Alabama in consecutive seasons, but the NCAA's enforcement arm could have a say in whether Ole Miss is going to continue that upward trend.
[URL]http://espn.go.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/player/_/id/172011/shea-pattersonShea Patterson[/URL] as the centerpiece, the 2016 class was rated even higher (at No. 4).
Of course, questions are now popping up as to how the Rebels were able to procure such classes without much recruiting success historically. It remains to be seen what the NCAA will uncover in its investigation and how it will respond.
Low category: Title path
As much as Ole Miss has invested in increasing salaries and facilities, it's still dwarfed by other programs in the SEC West. Miller said, "I don't see Ole Miss as a power, as a long-term deal. Would I rather be the coach at Penn State or Ole Miss? Are you kidding me? Would I rather be the coach at A&M or Ole Miss? Are you kidding me?"
Go to: [URL]http://espn.go.com/college-foo...2016-college-football-future-power-rankings#11-5[/URL] | [URL]http://espn.go.com/college-foo...2016-college-football-future-power-rankings#26-10[/URL] | [URL]http://espn.go.com/college-foo...2016-college-football-future-power-rankings#311-15[/URL] | [URL]http://espn.go.com/college-foo...2016-college-football-future-power-rankings#416-20[/URL] | [URL]http://espn.go.com/college-foo...2016-college-football-future-power-rankings#521-25[/URL]
[URL]http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/264/washington-huskiesWashington Huskies[/URL]
SCORE RANK
Coaching 8.2 10th
Current Talent 7.1 22nd
Recruiting 6.9 22nd
Title Path 7.0 21st
Foundation 7.7 21st
Overall: 74.01
Chris Petersen and the Huskies overachieved to win seven games last season, which seems to have swayed our panelists.
"Buckle up," Luginbill said. "That program's about to explode."
High category: Coaching
Katz thought this rating was actually too low, based on a three-year projection.
"I'm a big believer in what Chris Petersen is doing," she said. "It may still be another year until we see the Huskies competing for a Pac-12 title, but they're on the cusp of breaking through.
"Petersen has transformed Washington into a top-10 defense, and the young offense improved as the season went on. I wouldn't be surprised if in three years the Huskies are mentioned among the nation's elite programs."
[URL]http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/2483/oregon-ducksOregon[/URL]
SCORE RANK
Coaching 6.8 22nd
Current Talent 7.6 17th
Recruiting 7.4 T-19th
Title Path 7.4 T-17th
Foundation 8.3 T-14th
Overall: 73.82
The perception among panelists is that Oregon, which dropped 12 spots, took a huge step back during a 9-4 season in 2015. Questions persist as to whether Mark Helfrich, promoted to replace Chip Kelly four seasons ago, is the right man for the job., despite a very respectable 33-8 record with a national runner-up finish in 2014.
High category: Foundation
Phil Knight has stepped aside at Nike, but his fingerprints are still all over the Oregon program. No one has had a super-booster like Knight.
"He's definitely the first example, and it's not even close," Rittenberg said. "T. Boone [Pickens at Oklahoma State] would be second, but it's a distant second. ... Knight is the single-biggest reason Oregon football matters because of the branding and the resources he has given the program. Nike makes Oregon cool on a different level."
[URL]http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/97/louisville-cardinalsLouisville[/URL]
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.9 11th
Current Talent 7.4 19th
Recruiting 6.6 25th
Title Path 6.5 T-24th
Foundation 7.5 22nd
Overall: 72.41
This is the only program that remained at its 2015 position. That might seem strange considering that Louisville likely has a top-15 team in 2016, but look beyond this season.
"I expect them to be good under [Bobby Petrino]," Edwards said, "but I can't see him building a power. It seems like the kind of program that can get enough experienced talent to contend for a year or two but would go back to being an eight-win team for the next two years."
[URL]http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/197/oklahoma-state-cowboysOklahoma State[/URL]
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.3 T-17th
Current Talent 6.9 24th
Recruiting 6.8 T-23rd
Title Path 6.9 T-22nd
Foundation 7.3 T-23rd
Overall: 70.28
The Cowboys return to the rankings on the heels of a surprising 10-3 season in 2015 that yielded a Sugar Bowl trip.
High category: Coaching
Is Mike Gundy underrated? After all, four of his past six teams have won 10-plus games.
"Maybe a little," Rittenberg said. "Has any team benefited more from Texas' struggles than Oklahoma State? Maybe Baylor.
[URL]http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/158/nebraska-cornhuskersNebraska[/URL]
SCORE RANK
Coaching 6.7 23rd
Current Talent 6.8 25th
Recruiting 6.8 T-23rd
Title Path 7.3 20th
Foundation 8.3 T-14th
Overall: 70.03
The Cornhuskers return despite a 6-7 season in which they needed an exception to even receive a bowl berth.
High category: Foundation
Nebraskans care about Nebraska football, greatly. The school reciprocates by financially supporting the program. There's no shortage of desire to return to the heights that Huskers football once reached.
The landscape, however, has changed. Aggressive recruiting has left behind a program located in the middle of the country, and far from the bulk of America's talent.
Cornhuskers By The Numbers
Big Ten Rank No. 4
2015 Rank NR
2014 Rank NR
Low category: Recruiting
Luginbill referenced ESPN research that showed the average Nebraska recruit grows up 900 miles from campus.
"And this is not necessarily a national brand," he said, "not anymore."
That's what Mike Riley is fighting against in his second season -- resuscitating a program with very few geographic benefits. What bodes well for him is that no program has a stranglehold in the Big Ten West. Look at Iowa. Kirk Ferentz had been left for dead, and the Hawkeyes were on the precipice of the College Football Playoff last season. Just because times have changed doesn't preclude Nebraska from success.
But it would behoove Riley to win at least nine games, the average each year for predecessor Bo Pelini.
Alabama leads the ESPN College Football Future Power Rankings, but Clemson and Michigan are looking to close the gap. ESPN Illustration
Jul 5, 2016
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Travis HaneyESPN Staff Writer
Welcome back, Alabama. After being overtaken by Ohio State for the top spot in2015, the Tide have returned as the No. 1 team in the College Football Future Power Rankings.
First, a refresher: FPR is a projection of a program's strength over the next three years, not just the 2016 season. An eight-person panel of ESPN reporters and analysts -- Heather Dinich, Brad Edwards, Travis Haney, Sharon Katz, Tom Luginbill, Ted Miller, Adam Rittenberg and Mark Schlabach -- graded teams based on five criteria, which were weighed differently to account for their impact on overall sustained success. The criteria: coaching (27 percent of the formula), current talent (27 percent), recruiting (20 percent), title path (16 percent) and program foundation (10 percent).
College Football Future Power Rankings: Methodology[/paste:font]
A detailed look at the categories and weighting for the 2016 edition of the College Football Future Power Rankings.
One team you won't find is Baylor. The Bears climbed from No. 24 in 2013 to 19th in 2014 and then reached 14th in 2015. But the program plummeted in these rankings after the university and athletic department become engulfed in a scandal involving the handling of sexual assault cases.
Beginning with the reigning national champions, here is the top 25 of the 2016 College Football Future Power Rankings:
Go to: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25
Alabama
SCORE RANK
Coaching 10 T-1st
Current Talent 10 1st
Recruiting 9.9 T-1st
Title Path 8.5 T-3rd
Foundation 8.5 T-3rd
Overall: 97.30
After a fourth national championship in seven seasons, it's clear Nick Saban has perfected the "process," implementing a successful flowchart combining all elements of recruitment, development and NFL placement. This is a special, dynastic run, and as we were reminded last season, it isn't over yet.
High category: Coaching
This spring, Saban reiterated to ESPN's Chris Low his intention to remain at Alabama. The sentiment that he would leave for the NFL -- or another high-end college gig, such as Texas -- seems to be on the wane.
"If I had to bet on whether he'll be retired five years from now, I'd be leaning toward yes at the moment," FPR panelist Brad Edwards said. "But I expect Alabama to be a fixture in the top three of these rankings for as long as he's there."
Ohio State
SCORE RANK
Coaching 10 T-1st
Current Talent 9.3 5th
Recruiting 9.9 T-1st
Title Path 8.4 5th
Foundation 9.8 2nd
Overall: 95.15
Ohio State has not fallen out of the top three in the four years we've compiled FPR.
High category: Coaching
Last season, ESPN's Mark Schlabach noted that Urban Meyer is 1B to Saban's 1A among the best coaches in college football. That hasn't changed. Meyer might not say the word "process" as much as Saban, but Meyer has his own patented system of success.
It was clear in 2015 that OSU missed former coordinator Tom Herman's influence on the offense. Agents, however, tell Insider that they expect a bounce-back year from Herman's replacement, Tim Beck, now that the quarterback back-and-forth between J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones is no longer an issue.
Florida State
SCORE RANK
Coaching 9.0 7th
Current Talent 9.9 2nd
Recruiting 9.9 T-1st
Title Path 9.0 T-1st
Foundation 9.4 3rd
Overall: 94.63
FSU and Ohio State are the only non-SEC programs to win a national title since '05. Coaches agree there are few things more challenging than replacing a legend, which makes Jimbo Fisher's work exemplary since replacing Bobby Bowden. The Seminoles remain the standard in the ACC.
High category: Recruiting
FSU is on par with any program in terms of talent and recruiting. The Seminoles landed Recruiting Nation's No. 1-ranked class in February, and they finished second in 2015 and third in 2014.
"I love how much [Fisher] believes in his recruiting approach," Rittenberg said. "He doesn't have to adjust to anyone else's. FSU has almost no social media presence and they still sign top-10 classes every year.
"Clemson's rise under Dabo Swinney is a concern in the ACC, but Florida State still should have more elite talent in many years."
Proximity is an obvious key; the Noles are better-positioned for talent in target-rich Florida.
Jameis Winston situation, which didn't help Jimbo's perception and likely soured his on the media."
Stand down, #FSUTwitter. There is a positive coming.
"But he's a heck of a coach, and he can win more national titles at Florida State," Rittenberg said.
Clemson
SCORE RANK
Coaching 8.8 8th
Current Talent 9.4 4th
Recruiting 9.3 5th
Title Path 9.0 T-1st
Foundation 9.1 T-4th
Overall: 91.24
A playoff appearance led to a three-position bump for the Tigers, but they're still second in their own division. FSU remains a giant roadblock to Clemson's continued ascendancy. However, talent has flooded into the program thanks to aggressive recruiting efforts, and the gap between the Tigers and Seminoles is narrowing.
High category: Recruiting
Clemson's recruiting score has risen a full point in the past two years -- the Tigers registered the eighth-rated class in 2016 and the fourth-ranked class in 2015, their highest since 2008. ESPN recruiting expert Tom Luginbill said the in-state talent in the Palmetto State is not always enough to buoy a class. But this staff has excelled at winning out-of-state battles, particularly in neighboring Georgia and Florida.
Deshaun Watsonhelped ensure the offense's continuity, and Morris' replacement, Tony Elliott, proved perfectly capable in his new role. Credit also goes to the work Venables did with a defense that returned only about half its starting cast. There is similar attrition this season, and the panel is confident in his ability to retool this unit for another playoff run.
Michigan
SCORE RANK
Coaching 9.2 T-5th
Current Talent 8.1 T-11th
Recruiting 9.0 T-7th
Title Path 8.0 6th
Foundation 9.1 T-4th
Overall: 86.61
Jim Harbaugh's arrival has stirred up the passion and energy of a program that was in desperate need of both. It hasn't taken Harbaugh long to effect change on the field as well -- the Wolverines jumped 10 spots from a year ago, and they checked in at No. 20 in 2014.
High category: Recruiting
Whether it's chugging milk or climbing trees -- or sleepovers at recruits' homes or his ballyhooed satellite camps -- Harbaugh has made his presence felt most acutely in the recruiting department. The Wolverines signed the sixth-rated class in February and have continued to dominate headlines on the trail this offseason.
1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25
LSU
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.3 T-17th
Current Talent 9.6 3rd
Recruiting 9.7 4th
Title Path 7.8 T-9th
Foundation 8.6 T-9th
Overall: 86.11
This is the Tigers' lowest finish in the four years of FPR. They've dropped a spot each year, sinking in 2016 largely due to a lack of faith in Les Miles' job security, which is not an unfair assessment considering the near coup last November.
High category: Recruiting
Without an in-state rival on the Power 5 level, LSU has incredible access to high-end recruits and extreme brand visibility. Going to LSU is the presumed next step for many Louisiana recruits; it's often considered an upset if a prospect leaves the state.
Stanford
SCORE RANK
Coaching 9.2 T-5th
Current Talent 8.0 15th
Recruiting 8.1 T-16th
Title Path 7.9 T-7th
Foundation 8.6 T-9th
Overall: 83.88
On the heels of a conference title and boasting the return of the Heisman Trophy runner-up, Christian McCaffrey, the Cardinal leaped 13 spots from last year's rankings.
Maybe it's even time to put to rest all those David Shaw-to-the-NFL rumors.
High category: Coaching
ESPN NFL insiders Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen have repeatedly mentioned, including this past January, that Shaw is a prime target for NFL organizations. But ESPN's Ted Miller has the impression that the feeling is not mutual at this point.
"I think there's some coaching stability [at Stanford]," Miller said. "[Shaw] makes a strong case why he likes it there. One reason is that he wants to eventually be able to send his kids to Stanford. It's kind of a golden ticket that he has. And it's his alma mater. I feel like we've reached a point where there's consistency and a comfort that Shaw is going to stay."
Oklahoma
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.8 No. 12
Current Talent 8.4 T-8th
Recruiting 8.4 T-12th
Title Path 8.5 T-3rd
Foundation 9.1 T-4th
Overall: 83.24
A playoff appearance and a first outright Big 12 title since 2010 resulted in a jump of nine spots for the Sooners. There's renewed optimism about OU's place in the Big 12.
High category: Foundation
The Sooners boast rich history and strong brand recognition, but their best quality continues to be administrative continuity, an increasingly rare concept in the modern game.
School president David Boren has been in place since 1994. AD Joe Castiglione was hired in 1998. Castiglione hired Bob Stoops the following year. Whenever there has been interest from other programs, Stoops has pointed to the relationship he has with his bosses.
Baker Mayfield led to Riley's winning the Broyles Award as the country's top assistant.
"I think they've got a little mojo going right now," Luginbill said. "I think Bob Stoops probably doesn't get the credit he deserves for sustaining [success] for a long period of time in an era that's becoming more and more difficult."
Notre Dame
SCORE RANK
Coaching 8.4 No. 9
Current Talent 8.1 T-11th
Recruiting 8.5 T-9th
Title Path 7.8 T-9th
Foundation 8.9 7th
Overall: 82.93
The Irish continue to reside just outside the top tier in FPR. They're not far off the pace, though: They played for a national title in 2012, and they would have had a strong playoff case if they'd beaten Stanford in last year's regular-season finale. Brian Kelly has at least put Notre Dame back in the national conversation on a consistent basis.
High category: Coaching
With 55 victories (in six seasons), Kelly is behind only Frank Leahy, Ara Parseghian, Lou Holtz and Knute Rockne on the school's all-time wins list. Decent company, right?
Michigan State
SCORE RANK
Coaching 9.4 3rd
Current Talent 7.3 T-20th
Recruiting 7.4 T-19th
Title Path 7.6 T-13th
Foundation 8.6 T-9th
Overall: 80.65
The Spartans took another step forward in 2015, earning the program's first playoff berth and, in the process, unseating the prohibitive playoff favorite. In fact, Michigan State has stymied Ohio State in the Big Ten twice in the past three years.
So why isn't Michigan State considered the bigger threat to OSU in the division?
High category: Coaching
Mark Dantonio's score was third behind only Saban and Meyer. MSU's playoff run required overcoming a rash of injuries and the loss of longtime defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi to Pitt.
"I fully expected them to take some kind of a step back," Schlabach said. "I think they're definitely there to stay. Everyone talks about Harbaugh as the one who's going to catch Ohio State, but in the end it could be Michigan State."
1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25
Florida
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.4 T-14th
Current Talent 8.3 10th
Recruiting 8.4 T-12th
Title Path 7.8 T-9th
Foundation 8.8 8th
Overall: 80.47
Florida moved up 10 places after a 10-win season in Jim McElwain's first year. But we're not completely sold on the Gators. Not yet, anyway.
"They barely beat Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Florida Atlantic," Katz pointed out.
Added Edwards: "They were running on fumes by the end of the season. You can't blame McElwain for [quarterback] Will Grier being suspended, but I didn't see any concrete evidence that Florida is back. No. 11 seems a little high to me without stronger on-field results."
Georgia
SCORE RANK
Coaching 6.6 24th
Current Talent 8.4 T-8th
Recruiting 9.0 T-7th
Title Path 7.9 T-7th
Foundation 8.3 T-14th
Overall: 79.44
Kirby Smart has returned to his home state to take over at his alma mater. Our panel isn't entirely sure what to make of the change. Many college football observers are similarly confused.
"I don't think they got that one right," a Power 5 coach told Insider this spring. "Coach [Mark] Richt won a bunch of games -- and [Smart] hasn't coached a game.
High category: Recruiting
There's a horde of schools aggressively recruiting in the state, especially in the Atlanta area, but UGA is the only one that can boast status as its flagship university. Plus, Georgia Tech's high admissions standards essentially mean Georgia is running unopposed among in-state programs.
USC
SCORE RANK
Coaching 6.2 25th
Current Talent 8.9 6th
Recruiting 9.1 6th
Title Path 7.4 T-17th
Foundation 8.5 12th
Overall: 79.31
Clay Helton assumed the interim tag after Steve Sarkisian's abrupt dismissal last October and was given the full-time job shortly before the season ended. While there was great internal support for Helton, his promotion has faced criticism from those who believe USC is above hiring someone with no résumé as a head coach.
High category: Recruiting
Questions about the coaching staff aside, Luginbill said he was "stunned" to see USC rated this low simply because of the inherent resources in place.
"Everyone plays second fiddle to them in the entire conference," he said.
Tennessee
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.2 T-19th
Current Talent 8.5 7th
Recruiting 8.5 T-9th
Title Path 7.5 T-15th
Foundation 7.9 T-19th
Overall: 79.29
It's a modest two-position jump for a team that figures to be the odds-on SEC East favorite -- and a fringe playoff contender -- in 2016. The Volunteers still have to prove they're worthy of such hype after late-game collapses against Florida and Oklahoma marred their 2015 season.
Before any of those expectations begin to materialize, however, Tennessee has to beat division rival Florida for the first time since 2004.
"Expectations should be higher for the Vols, but they have to beat the Gators, period," Dinich said. "Losing 12 straight to Florida isn't the way to start the SEC season. That game will set the tone and show everyone if the SEC East favorites are to be taken seriously."
Jonathan Kongbo, the No. 1 overall juco prospect, joins breakout candidateKahlil McKenzie on a D-line that also includes All-America-level end Derek Barnett. In May, Jones' staff added eight commitments in a single day. The Vols are presently at No. 10 in ESPN's 2017 class rankings. If that holds, it would mean three top-10 classes in four years.
That's the formula to return the program to where it was during its heyday in the 1990s.
Low category: Coaching
Panelists are still waiting for the Vols to break through under Jones. Perhaps people are underestimating the arrival of new defensive coordinator Bob Shoop from Penn State.
Coaches told Insider all spring that his influence could be the difference between where the program is and where it wants to be. Shoop's Penn State and Vanderbilt defenses have been ranked an average of 14th in yards per play the past five seasons.
TCU
SCORE RANK
Coaching 9.3 4th
Current Talent 7.0 23rd
Recruiting 7.3 21st
Title Path 7.5 T-15th
Foundation 8.4 13th
Overall: 79.01
The Frogs fell three spots from 2015, but that doesn't necessarily seem indicative of the program's trajectory, especially considering Baylor's drop.
High category: Coaching
With Gary Patterson's stability and consistency -- he's averaged 9.5 wins for 15 seasons -- TCU appears well-situated for years to come in the Big 12. A statue of the 56-year-old Patterson recently went up just outside the school's renovated arena. That tells you what he's done to build the program.
1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25
UCLA
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.4 T-14th
Current Talent 8.1 T-11th
Recruiting 8.4 T-12th
Title Path 7.4 T-17th
Foundation 8.1 18th
Overall: 78.59
With 37 wins in four seasons, Jim Mora has elevated the Bruins into something more than just "the other college team" in Los Angeles. But questions remain as to whether the program is reaching its true potential.
High category: Current talent
A Pac-12 coach told Insider last summer that UCLA had more talent than any team in the Pac-12. "And it isn't close," he said, adding that USC's NCAA-mandated scholarship reductions allowed the Bruins to surpass the Trojans' talent level.
It's enough to wonder why UCLA hasn't been able to break through for at least a Rose Bowl appearance under Mora.
Josh Rosenthere, they'd continue to make some strides, but they just can't seem to put everything together."
Texas
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.0 21st
Current Talent 7.5 18th
Recruiting 8.5 T-9th
Title Path 7.6 T-13th
Foundation 8.2 17th
Overall: 76.51
It's a pivotal season for the wobbling-but-still-proud program. Coach Charlie Strong, entering his third year at Texas' helm, faces increasing pressure, while new coordinator Sterlin Gilbert has been tasked with revamping the stagnant offense.
Even if Strong is out by December, you'd think the Longhorns would be able to secure a reputable name in his place. But there is perhaps less confidence in AD Mike Perrin, who has never before worked in athletics, after watching him swing and miss on several candidates for the school's baseball opening.
Devin Duvernay, the No. 3 player at his position, figures to yield dividends this fall.
The talent level is increasing, without question. But will the staff have time to see it through? It all comes back to the offense, and particularly the quarterback position, where freshman Shane Buechele might become the starter.
"If their quarterback pans out," Luginbill said, "the rest of their roster is really good."
Low category: Coaching
Much like Will Muschamp's failed time at Florida, Strong erred with his initial OC hire. Shawn Watson could not get Texas' offense going, and Gilbert's appearance -- like Kurt Roper's in Muschamp's final year at UF -- might be too late.
There was a great deal of work to do once Strong arrived, but Texas went 6-6 in his first regular season and missed a bowl game last year. Regardless of the circumstances, that doesn't fly at a school with the depth of UT's resources.
Auburn Tigers
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.2 T-19th
Current Talent 8.1 T-11th
Recruiting 8.1 T-16th
Title Path 6.9 T-22nd
Foundation 7.9 T-19th
Overall: 76.45
This marks a precipitous drop for Auburn, FPR's No. 4 team in 2015, The Tigers were riding high with Muschamp in place as the new defensive coordinator and a breakout candidate at quarterback, Jeremy Johnson.
Muschamp is now at South Carolina and Johnson might be the third-team QB this fall. As a result, Auburn has lost all momentum.
Miami Hurricanes
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.4 T-14th
Current Talent 7.3 T-20th
Recruiting 8.3 15th
Title Path 7.8 T-9th
Foundation 7.2 25th
Overall: 75.97
Mark Richt's return to his alma mater has brought optimism that the Hurricanes can again return to prominence. At minimum, the ACC would surely appreciate if they can at least be more of a factor in the conference; this is not what was expected when "The U" was added in 2004.
Ole Miss Rebels
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.6 13th
Current Talent 7.9 16th
Recruiting 8.0 18th
Title Path 6.5 T-24th
Foundation 7.3 T-23rd
Overall: 75.55
The Rebels are on a serious roll on the field, having just won the Sugar Bowl and beaten Alabama in consecutive seasons, but the NCAA's enforcement arm could have a say in whether Ole Miss is going to continue that upward trend.
[URL]http://espn.go.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/player/_/id/172011/shea-pattersonShea Patterson[/URL] as the centerpiece, the 2016 class was rated even higher (at No. 4).
Of course, questions are now popping up as to how the Rebels were able to procure such classes without much recruiting success historically. It remains to be seen what the NCAA will uncover in its investigation and how it will respond.
Low category: Title path
As much as Ole Miss has invested in increasing salaries and facilities, it's still dwarfed by other programs in the SEC West. Miller said, "I don't see Ole Miss as a power, as a long-term deal. Would I rather be the coach at Penn State or Ole Miss? Are you kidding me? Would I rather be the coach at A&M or Ole Miss? Are you kidding me?"
Go to: [URL]http://espn.go.com/college-foo...2016-college-football-future-power-rankings#11-5[/URL] | [URL]http://espn.go.com/college-foo...2016-college-football-future-power-rankings#26-10[/URL] | [URL]http://espn.go.com/college-foo...2016-college-football-future-power-rankings#311-15[/URL] | [URL]http://espn.go.com/college-foo...2016-college-football-future-power-rankings#416-20[/URL] | [URL]http://espn.go.com/college-foo...2016-college-football-future-power-rankings#521-25[/URL]
[URL]http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/264/washington-huskiesWashington Huskies[/URL]
SCORE RANK
Coaching 8.2 10th
Current Talent 7.1 22nd
Recruiting 6.9 22nd
Title Path 7.0 21st
Foundation 7.7 21st
Overall: 74.01
Chris Petersen and the Huskies overachieved to win seven games last season, which seems to have swayed our panelists.
"Buckle up," Luginbill said. "That program's about to explode."
High category: Coaching
Katz thought this rating was actually too low, based on a three-year projection.
"I'm a big believer in what Chris Petersen is doing," she said. "It may still be another year until we see the Huskies competing for a Pac-12 title, but they're on the cusp of breaking through.
"Petersen has transformed Washington into a top-10 defense, and the young offense improved as the season went on. I wouldn't be surprised if in three years the Huskies are mentioned among the nation's elite programs."
[URL]http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/2483/oregon-ducksOregon[/URL]
SCORE RANK
Coaching 6.8 22nd
Current Talent 7.6 17th
Recruiting 7.4 T-19th
Title Path 7.4 T-17th
Foundation 8.3 T-14th
Overall: 73.82
The perception among panelists is that Oregon, which dropped 12 spots, took a huge step back during a 9-4 season in 2015. Questions persist as to whether Mark Helfrich, promoted to replace Chip Kelly four seasons ago, is the right man for the job., despite a very respectable 33-8 record with a national runner-up finish in 2014.
High category: Foundation
Phil Knight has stepped aside at Nike, but his fingerprints are still all over the Oregon program. No one has had a super-booster like Knight.
"He's definitely the first example, and it's not even close," Rittenberg said. "T. Boone [Pickens at Oklahoma State] would be second, but it's a distant second. ... Knight is the single-biggest reason Oregon football matters because of the branding and the resources he has given the program. Nike makes Oregon cool on a different level."
[URL]http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/97/louisville-cardinalsLouisville[/URL]
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.9 11th
Current Talent 7.4 19th
Recruiting 6.6 25th
Title Path 6.5 T-24th
Foundation 7.5 22nd
Overall: 72.41
This is the only program that remained at its 2015 position. That might seem strange considering that Louisville likely has a top-15 team in 2016, but look beyond this season.
"I expect them to be good under [Bobby Petrino]," Edwards said, "but I can't see him building a power. It seems like the kind of program that can get enough experienced talent to contend for a year or two but would go back to being an eight-win team for the next two years."
[URL]http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/197/oklahoma-state-cowboysOklahoma State[/URL]
SCORE RANK
Coaching 7.3 T-17th
Current Talent 6.9 24th
Recruiting 6.8 T-23rd
Title Path 6.9 T-22nd
Foundation 7.3 T-23rd
Overall: 70.28
The Cowboys return to the rankings on the heels of a surprising 10-3 season in 2015 that yielded a Sugar Bowl trip.
High category: Coaching
Is Mike Gundy underrated? After all, four of his past six teams have won 10-plus games.
"Maybe a little," Rittenberg said. "Has any team benefited more from Texas' struggles than Oklahoma State? Maybe Baylor.
[URL]http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/158/nebraska-cornhuskersNebraska[/URL]
SCORE RANK
Coaching 6.7 23rd
Current Talent 6.8 25th
Recruiting 6.8 T-23rd
Title Path 7.3 20th
Foundation 8.3 T-14th
Overall: 70.03
The Cornhuskers return despite a 6-7 season in which they needed an exception to even receive a bowl berth.
High category: Foundation
Nebraskans care about Nebraska football, greatly. The school reciprocates by financially supporting the program. There's no shortage of desire to return to the heights that Huskers football once reached.
The landscape, however, has changed. Aggressive recruiting has left behind a program located in the middle of the country, and far from the bulk of America's talent.
Cornhuskers By The Numbers
Big Ten Rank No. 4
2015 Rank NR
2014 Rank NR
Low category: Recruiting
Luginbill referenced ESPN research that showed the average Nebraska recruit grows up 900 miles from campus.
"And this is not necessarily a national brand," he said, "not anymore."
That's what Mike Riley is fighting against in his second season -- resuscitating a program with very few geographic benefits. What bodes well for him is that no program has a stranglehold in the Big Ten West. Look at Iowa. Kirk Ferentz had been left for dead, and the Hawkeyes were on the precipice of the College Football Playoff last season. Just because times have changed doesn't preclude Nebraska from success.
But it would behoove Riley to win at least nine games, the average each year for predecessor Bo Pelini.
