At #12 and the first team out, and not controlling their destiny in the ACC, Clemson technically needs some help to make the CFP, but not much. Obviously our chances of getting in are relevant to what other teams do, meaning for us to move up, someone else has to move down. Here's where I think each team that is still alive for a berth is at relative to the simple goal of making the playoffs. I think this sheds some light on what Clemson's potential pathways are. What do you all think? Reminder, autobids go to the 5 highest ranked champions of any conference, not the P4 + 1 G5, so there are still scenarios where a P4 champ is left out... though not the ACC.
Definitely In
#1 Oregon - a loss to Washington and a loss in the Big Ten title game wouldn't keep them out.
#2 Ohio State - if they somehow lose to Michigan they'll most likely miss the Big Ten title game and not have a chance to take a 3rd loss. Even if they did, it wouldn't move them out thanks to wins over Penn State and Indiana.
#3 Texas - perhaps controversial since a loss to A&M would leave them without a signature win, but it would also allow them to skip the conference title game, and a 10-2 Texas just isn't getting left out of these playoffs.
Likely In
#4 Penn State - a loss to Maryland would be very bad and push them to the bubble, but 10-2 Penn State is probably still in under that scenario; also they aren't losing to Maryland
#5 Notre Dame - They're obviously in at 11-1, but a loss to USC would make things interesting. It would give the committee a chance to really punish them for that NIU loss, but they also have some strong wins that stack up well against the teams below them. I'm not convinced they fall below Clemson, for instance, with the same record and the common opponents. I think they are likely to beat USC, and they still have several paths in with a loss, so likely in.
#7 Georgia - Likely only because they're definitely in with a win over Georgia Tech, who they are likely to beat - the SEC title game result will have no impact. A loss to GT would make things interesting, as it would leave them 9-3, same record as two teams they lost to currently on the outside (Bama, Ole Miss). But they would still have the conference championship pathway open to them, and a few other options should things go their way.
In With a Win, Out With a Loss (This Weekend)
#6 Miami - beat Syracuse and the ACC title game result doesn't matter. Lose to Syracuse and the ACC title game result doesn't matter.
#8 Tennessee - 9-3 with losses to Arkansas and Vandy won't cut it. But a win this weekend and they'll be set.
#9 SMU - I've gone back and forth on this one, but I think if SMU finishes 11-1 they'll be in regardless of the ACC title game result. It's a close call, and if it's a blowout in Charlotte maybe this isn't the case, but I think we should consider them in with a win over Cal.
Out With a Loss, Uncertain but feeling good with a Win (This Weekend)
#10 Indiana - I've gone back and forth here as well. There is a reasonable school of thought that the committee is looking for Clemson to give them a reason to jump Indiana this weekend. There is also a sense, I think, that you don't want to reward essentially a G5 schedule just because they technically play in the "P2". But would they really leave out an 11-1 Big Ten team? Obviously a loss to Purdue and they're done, but I don't think that's happening. I do think if they win, they won't fall behind Alabama or Ole Miss, who have no shot at boosting their resumes. So even if Clemson were to jump them, just one non-chalk result from the teams above would have them feeling comfortable. Also, they technically still have the conference title pathway open to them, as remote a chance as that is.
Same as above, except the conference title pathway is still technically open with a loss this weekend
#12 Clemson - did you guys know Clemson is alive for an at large bid? Assuming a win over SC, it isn't exactly clear how Clemson jumps into the field, but the sheer number of potential pathways, including the committee just deciding to push them over Indiana, is enough that a win this weekend would have you feeling comfortable. Of course if Miami loses to Cuse, there is still the ACC title path as well. It is hard to really evaluate that scenario now, until we see how results shake out this weekend - but laying everything out here like this, I think a 10-2 Clemson that then loses the ACC title game is probably still in the playoffs, because they'd take Miami's spot above and wouldn't get jumped by anyone below (barring a stunner from Texas A&M). (Also, if Clemson loses this weekend but wins the ACC, they're *probably* still in over the likes of a Tulane due to who they'd beat in Charlotte, but based on Tulane's current ranking that's feeling a little dicey).
South Carolina and Georgia Tech's Biggest Fans
#13 Alabama - their best argument will be jumping UGA if UGA has the same record, thanks to the head to head. Barring that, they need Clemson to lose, and they need something additional and unlikely to happen... Indiana losing to Purdue would be their only guaranteed way in though. I don't think any other upsets above would definitely punch their ticket. Beating Auburn will not help their resume.
South Carolina, Georgia Tech AND Auburn's Biggest Fans
#14 Ole Miss - same exact situation as Alabama, except one spot behind them, so they also need Alabama to lose.
South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Mississippi State, etc. etc.'s Biggest Fans
#15 South Carolina - longest of long shots but technically still alive with a win this weekend. Really they mostly exist to do Alabama and Ole Miss a favor. They'd need a whole lot of things to get weird to make it in but... let them feel good about themselves until Clemson whips that ass on Saturday.
Control Destiny with win this weekend + Conference Title win
#11 Boise State - the #12 seed has affectionately been referred to as the "G5 spot" by some, but right now Boise State is ranked ahead of the G5 spot and is in line for the #4 seed. It's quite possible the Big 12 and at large race works itself out in a way that Boise ends up in that #12 spot even with wins this weekend and in the MWC Championship Game, but they are at the very least in the driver's seat for that spot. A loss this weekend would not eliminate them but would throw a lot into chaos for that spot.
#20 Texas A&M - this is the five alarm chaos scenario that throws out everything I've written above. Wins over Texas and Georgia the next two weeks would shoot A&M into the top 10 and to the playoffs, and then the way the rest of the field is viewed changes dramatically. It would elbow in a 4th SEC team and lock in Notre Dame's spot, just for starters. Since I don't think Texas losing helps Clemson and A&M winning the SEC can only hurt Clemson, lets just hope Texas takes care of business.
Needs Help to get there but in with a Conference Title
#16 Arizona State - I'll admit I don't have the bandwith to wrap my brain around the various Big 12 championship scenarios. I know that Arizona State and Iowa State are most likely in with wins this weekend, and I feel confident that either one would then easily get in with a conference title win (and have a good shot at jumping Boise State for the #4 seed). It gets really weird past that, though. And there is a bizarre scenario where, if ASU, ISU, and Colorado win, but BYU loses, AND Texas Tech wins, then Colorado gets in and only of ASU or ISU can get in depending on the results of other games. So can't quite put them in the controlling their own destiny bucket, but definitely in the best position.
#18 Iowa State - although technically behind Tulane right now, presumptive wins over Top 25 Kansas State (who beat Tulane) and then in the Big 12 title game would easily jump them up.
#19 BYU - They would jump Tulane with a Big 12 title win and the same record
#24 Kansas State - the head to head win over Tulane means I think they'd jump ahead of them with a Big 12 title, even with one more loss, and I think they'd jump UNLV too
Winning the Conference Gives You a Shot, but no Guarantee
#17 Tulane - They played Oklahoma closer than Bama did!!! Presuming they win this weekend and win the AAC, a Boise State loss or a surprising winner from the Big 12 could be enough to get them in. The 2 G5 champion scenario is very much alive, folks.
#22 UNLV - this, on the other hand, is in all likelihood a 1 G5 champion scenario. They need Tulane to lose and to beat Boise State. If those things happen, they're probably in. They won't be ranked higher than any realistic Big 12 champion.
#25 Colorado - This is the one ranked Big 12 team that I think isn't guaranteed to pass Tulane with a Big 12 title win. The committee dropping them to 25 shows they don't have a lot of respect for Coach Prime's team at this point, and beating Oklahoma State won't do them any favors. They'd need to jump a LOT of spots after winning that conference title game, which could be a tall order. If Tulane loses, however, they'd be in good shape.
Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech - all technically still alive for the Big 12 title, and presuming a win this weekend and on championship weekend all would finish 9-4, which is a respectable enough record that they might jump the 2nd G5 champ if its not Tulane. This is the definition of being technically not dead, though.
Army - need a lot of teams to lose this weekend and others to lose on conference championship weekend, but since there's one scenario below where the Big 12 champ has no shot at getting in, you can't technically count out the potential AAC champ yet... they'd also have a good argument against the 3 unranked B12 teams above
Winning the Conference Isn't Enough, but Enjoy the Trophy
West Virginia - god the Big 12 is a mess
***
My predictions for the playoffs, if you'd like to know...
1. Ohio State (12-1, Big Ten Champ)
2. Georgia (11-2, SEC Champ)
3. Miami (12-1, ACC Champ)
4. Arizona State (11-2, Big 12 Champ)
5. Oregon (12-1)
6. Texas (11-2)
7. Penn State (11-1)
8. Notre Dame (11-1)
9. Tennessee (10-2)
10. SMU (11-2)
11. Clemson (10-2)
12. Boise State (12-1)
Round 1:
Oregon vs. Boise State
Texas vs. Clemson
Penn State vs. SMU
Notre Dame vs. Tennessee
Round 2:
Ohio State vs. Tennessee (Rose Bowl)
Georgia vs. Penn State (Peach Bowl)
Miami vs. Texas (Sugar Bowl)
Arizona State vs. Oregon (Fiesta Bowl)
Semifinals:
Ohio State vs. Oregon (Orange Bowl)
Georgia vs. Miami (Cotton Bowl)
Title Game:
Ohio State vs. Georgia
Curious for any thoughts, projections, etc. And yes work is slow today, why are you asking?
Definitely In
#1 Oregon - a loss to Washington and a loss in the Big Ten title game wouldn't keep them out.
#2 Ohio State - if they somehow lose to Michigan they'll most likely miss the Big Ten title game and not have a chance to take a 3rd loss. Even if they did, it wouldn't move them out thanks to wins over Penn State and Indiana.
#3 Texas - perhaps controversial since a loss to A&M would leave them without a signature win, but it would also allow them to skip the conference title game, and a 10-2 Texas just isn't getting left out of these playoffs.
Likely In
#4 Penn State - a loss to Maryland would be very bad and push them to the bubble, but 10-2 Penn State is probably still in under that scenario; also they aren't losing to Maryland
#5 Notre Dame - They're obviously in at 11-1, but a loss to USC would make things interesting. It would give the committee a chance to really punish them for that NIU loss, but they also have some strong wins that stack up well against the teams below them. I'm not convinced they fall below Clemson, for instance, with the same record and the common opponents. I think they are likely to beat USC, and they still have several paths in with a loss, so likely in.
#7 Georgia - Likely only because they're definitely in with a win over Georgia Tech, who they are likely to beat - the SEC title game result will have no impact. A loss to GT would make things interesting, as it would leave them 9-3, same record as two teams they lost to currently on the outside (Bama, Ole Miss). But they would still have the conference championship pathway open to them, and a few other options should things go their way.
In With a Win, Out With a Loss (This Weekend)
#6 Miami - beat Syracuse and the ACC title game result doesn't matter. Lose to Syracuse and the ACC title game result doesn't matter.
#8 Tennessee - 9-3 with losses to Arkansas and Vandy won't cut it. But a win this weekend and they'll be set.
#9 SMU - I've gone back and forth on this one, but I think if SMU finishes 11-1 they'll be in regardless of the ACC title game result. It's a close call, and if it's a blowout in Charlotte maybe this isn't the case, but I think we should consider them in with a win over Cal.
Out With a Loss, Uncertain but feeling good with a Win (This Weekend)
#10 Indiana - I've gone back and forth here as well. There is a reasonable school of thought that the committee is looking for Clemson to give them a reason to jump Indiana this weekend. There is also a sense, I think, that you don't want to reward essentially a G5 schedule just because they technically play in the "P2". But would they really leave out an 11-1 Big Ten team? Obviously a loss to Purdue and they're done, but I don't think that's happening. I do think if they win, they won't fall behind Alabama or Ole Miss, who have no shot at boosting their resumes. So even if Clemson were to jump them, just one non-chalk result from the teams above would have them feeling comfortable. Also, they technically still have the conference title pathway open to them, as remote a chance as that is.
Same as above, except the conference title pathway is still technically open with a loss this weekend
#12 Clemson - did you guys know Clemson is alive for an at large bid? Assuming a win over SC, it isn't exactly clear how Clemson jumps into the field, but the sheer number of potential pathways, including the committee just deciding to push them over Indiana, is enough that a win this weekend would have you feeling comfortable. Of course if Miami loses to Cuse, there is still the ACC title path as well. It is hard to really evaluate that scenario now, until we see how results shake out this weekend - but laying everything out here like this, I think a 10-2 Clemson that then loses the ACC title game is probably still in the playoffs, because they'd take Miami's spot above and wouldn't get jumped by anyone below (barring a stunner from Texas A&M). (Also, if Clemson loses this weekend but wins the ACC, they're *probably* still in over the likes of a Tulane due to who they'd beat in Charlotte, but based on Tulane's current ranking that's feeling a little dicey).
South Carolina and Georgia Tech's Biggest Fans
#13 Alabama - their best argument will be jumping UGA if UGA has the same record, thanks to the head to head. Barring that, they need Clemson to lose, and they need something additional and unlikely to happen... Indiana losing to Purdue would be their only guaranteed way in though. I don't think any other upsets above would definitely punch their ticket. Beating Auburn will not help their resume.
South Carolina, Georgia Tech AND Auburn's Biggest Fans
#14 Ole Miss - same exact situation as Alabama, except one spot behind them, so they also need Alabama to lose.
South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Mississippi State, etc. etc.'s Biggest Fans
#15 South Carolina - longest of long shots but technically still alive with a win this weekend. Really they mostly exist to do Alabama and Ole Miss a favor. They'd need a whole lot of things to get weird to make it in but... let them feel good about themselves until Clemson whips that ass on Saturday.
Control Destiny with win this weekend + Conference Title win
#11 Boise State - the #12 seed has affectionately been referred to as the "G5 spot" by some, but right now Boise State is ranked ahead of the G5 spot and is in line for the #4 seed. It's quite possible the Big 12 and at large race works itself out in a way that Boise ends up in that #12 spot even with wins this weekend and in the MWC Championship Game, but they are at the very least in the driver's seat for that spot. A loss this weekend would not eliminate them but would throw a lot into chaos for that spot.
#20 Texas A&M - this is the five alarm chaos scenario that throws out everything I've written above. Wins over Texas and Georgia the next two weeks would shoot A&M into the top 10 and to the playoffs, and then the way the rest of the field is viewed changes dramatically. It would elbow in a 4th SEC team and lock in Notre Dame's spot, just for starters. Since I don't think Texas losing helps Clemson and A&M winning the SEC can only hurt Clemson, lets just hope Texas takes care of business.
Needs Help to get there but in with a Conference Title
#16 Arizona State - I'll admit I don't have the bandwith to wrap my brain around the various Big 12 championship scenarios. I know that Arizona State and Iowa State are most likely in with wins this weekend, and I feel confident that either one would then easily get in with a conference title win (and have a good shot at jumping Boise State for the #4 seed). It gets really weird past that, though. And there is a bizarre scenario where, if ASU, ISU, and Colorado win, but BYU loses, AND Texas Tech wins, then Colorado gets in and only of ASU or ISU can get in depending on the results of other games. So can't quite put them in the controlling their own destiny bucket, but definitely in the best position.
#18 Iowa State - although technically behind Tulane right now, presumptive wins over Top 25 Kansas State (who beat Tulane) and then in the Big 12 title game would easily jump them up.
#19 BYU - They would jump Tulane with a Big 12 title win and the same record
#24 Kansas State - the head to head win over Tulane means I think they'd jump ahead of them with a Big 12 title, even with one more loss, and I think they'd jump UNLV too
Winning the Conference Gives You a Shot, but no Guarantee
#17 Tulane - They played Oklahoma closer than Bama did!!! Presuming they win this weekend and win the AAC, a Boise State loss or a surprising winner from the Big 12 could be enough to get them in. The 2 G5 champion scenario is very much alive, folks.
#22 UNLV - this, on the other hand, is in all likelihood a 1 G5 champion scenario. They need Tulane to lose and to beat Boise State. If those things happen, they're probably in. They won't be ranked higher than any realistic Big 12 champion.
#25 Colorado - This is the one ranked Big 12 team that I think isn't guaranteed to pass Tulane with a Big 12 title win. The committee dropping them to 25 shows they don't have a lot of respect for Coach Prime's team at this point, and beating Oklahoma State won't do them any favors. They'd need to jump a LOT of spots after winning that conference title game, which could be a tall order. If Tulane loses, however, they'd be in good shape.
Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech - all technically still alive for the Big 12 title, and presuming a win this weekend and on championship weekend all would finish 9-4, which is a respectable enough record that they might jump the 2nd G5 champ if its not Tulane. This is the definition of being technically not dead, though.
Army - need a lot of teams to lose this weekend and others to lose on conference championship weekend, but since there's one scenario below where the Big 12 champ has no shot at getting in, you can't technically count out the potential AAC champ yet... they'd also have a good argument against the 3 unranked B12 teams above
Winning the Conference Isn't Enough, but Enjoy the Trophy
West Virginia - god the Big 12 is a mess
***
My predictions for the playoffs, if you'd like to know...
1. Ohio State (12-1, Big Ten Champ)
2. Georgia (11-2, SEC Champ)
3. Miami (12-1, ACC Champ)
4. Arizona State (11-2, Big 12 Champ)
5. Oregon (12-1)
6. Texas (11-2)
7. Penn State (11-1)
8. Notre Dame (11-1)
9. Tennessee (10-2)
10. SMU (11-2)
11. Clemson (10-2)
12. Boise State (12-1)
Round 1:
Oregon vs. Boise State
Texas vs. Clemson
Penn State vs. SMU
Notre Dame vs. Tennessee
Round 2:
Ohio State vs. Tennessee (Rose Bowl)
Georgia vs. Penn State (Peach Bowl)
Miami vs. Texas (Sugar Bowl)
Arizona State vs. Oregon (Fiesta Bowl)
Semifinals:
Ohio State vs. Oregon (Orange Bowl)
Georgia vs. Miami (Cotton Bowl)
Title Game:
Ohio State vs. Georgia
Curious for any thoughts, projections, etc. And yes work is slow today, why are you asking?
