"I don't mind getting punched in the face. It kind of wakes me up and gets me excited." - CM Punk
The 2021 football season is finally upon us and right out of the gate, we're going to learn whether or not this Clemson team has the mettle to be a national championship team. One of the biggest questions I think you can have about any team in a given year is how will they respond to adversity? How will they respond when things don't go their way and they're on the ropes? How will they respond when they get punched in the face?
In the past we've had to wait several weeks to really find that answer for Clemson teams. Clemson will largely outmatch virtually every team on their schedule, but by opening up with a Georgia team that is a national championship contender in their own right, we will probably get the answer to the adversity question very quickly in 2021.
Clemson teams over the last decade have generally been very good at rising up in the face of adversity, primarily because Clemson players rarely ever get to the point where they don't believe they can win. When you're in a program that has delivered big wins, multiple championships, and has overcome adversity to win those big games and beat really good teams then its easy to have confidence in your ability to persevere - even if you weren't on the team when some of those wins occurred. This is a culture of confidence and belief in oneself that great programs pass on from one class to the next.
I'm a firm believer that in order to maintain that level of confidence, you need on the field leaders who other players can trust will pull them through. In 2009, the players genuinely believed they always had a chance to win as long as CJ Spiller was on the field. In 2011 - 2013, it was Sammy Watkins and Nuk Hopkins. In 2014 it was the defensive front, in 2015-2016 it was Deshaun Watson and Mike Williams. In recent years its been Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne. And those aren't the only names. Guys like Christian Wilkins and Ben Boulware and Shaq Lawson, all come to mind as guys that fans, coaches, and - most importantly - other players knew they could trust to step up and deliver a spark when the team needed it.
So the question is, when Clemson gets punched in the face on Saturday night, who will those leaders be? Who will be the spark? What group of, say 7 or 8 players will forge the identity of this Clemson team? There are some obvious answers, but the obvious won't be enough to lead Clemson to its 4th national championship.
Make no mistake, Clemson is going to get punched in the face on Saturday night. And this group better be ready to respond to it.
**Before diving into the offense and defense, I'd like to take this platform to say that I will be in Clemson for the BC game and am looking for 2 tickets for me and my dad and, of course, a parking pass. If anyone's got extras please let me know.
**Also, as a trigger warning, this post will be discussing the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the upcoming football season. I will be doing my best to not make it political, as I think there are plenty of political/scientific/conspiracy threads on here for me and all of you to discuss this topic. I will be attempting to discuss it objectively and solely in the reality that it exists and can/will impact football season. So if even a mention of COVID-19 bothers you, you may want to jump out of the thread now and pop some ivermectin.
Now, moving on.
Clemson Offense
I'm not going to waste a lot of time talking about breaking in a new QB, or being uncertain about the RB rotation, or which WR will step up and have a break through year (hint: its EJ). None of that matters one little bit if we can't protect that QB and block for those RBs. So mostly we're going to talk about that.
I was interested to see that UGA didn't release a depth chart and, quite frankly, we have so many "ORs" on ours that we might as well not have released one. I saw that Mason Trotter is listed as the starter at center, and I'll be anxiously watching to see if that is, in fact, who we....trot....out there on the first play.
Most of you have seen me over the years be highly critical of our philosophy on recruiting numbers on the OL and our head coach's tendency to gift scholarships to players that he has some sort of emotional attachment to. I have more or less learned to live with it as the successes in Dabo's philosophy has clearly far outweighed the failures, but my frustration may reach a tipping point if Mason Trotter is our starting center on Saturday night.
Georgia unquestionably has the best defensive front that we'll play against all year, maybe even through the playoff, and lining up a 285lb (soaking wet) center who should be playing at Coastal Carolina against a 6'6 340lb probably high round draft pick is probably a cause for concern.
Does this mean that Hunter Rayburn would be an amazing player and blow us all away? I'm guessing not. At the very least Rayburn would have more size to matchup and was actually a major college prospect out of high school. Personally I was hoping to see Bockhorst slide into center and Tchio take over and left guard, and perhaps we'll see that lineup at some point on Saturday.
Look, Mason Trotter could play the entire game Saturday night and could play well and Clemson could win. But having Trotter out there against a legit NFL caliber defensive tackle is a liability for Clemson. There's a reason that the 8th grade C-team doesn't practice against the high school varsity. There's a gap in size, strength, and skill that is unnerving. And no disrespect to Trotter as a person, I'm sure he's a wonderful guy and he'll go to heaven one day, and its not his fault that he's in this situation, but the odds are against him being able to be consistently successful and provide a winning performance for Clemson Saturday night.
That said, any offensive line is going to have a hard time with this Georgia defense and there are other matchups beyond the Trotter vs Davis matchup to keep our eye on. I was hoping to see McFadden stay at RT and Parks stay at LT. I've made no secret that I believe Parks will be an upgrade over Jackson Carman in terms of his technique and overall quality of play on a consistent basis. Parks won't be an upgrade in athleticism, but he will be much more sure footed in terms of being where he's supposed to be and playing the way he's supposed to play. So to my mind, Parks is capable of stepping in and being a starting LT.
Parks is also 6'5 vs McFadden at 6'2. McFadden I think is fundamentally sound and has proven to be more athletic than perhaps was initially anticipated in his recruiting. He's been the most consistent player on our OL over the last two seasons and I think he'll be the best player on this OL in 2021. But, at 6'2 he's challenged against rangy speed rushers which are going to be more prevalent on the left side. Nolan Smith will have a speed advantage and a length advantage over McFadden that he won't have over Parks in pass rushing situations and at 6'5 Travon Walker also figures to have a length advantage on McFadden.
Now McFadden can make up for this with technique, and he's done this in the past. He will have to play very soundly with his hands and keep these longer guys from getting their arms in on him and creating separation. Where we've seen him struggle at times though is in order to do this he has to pass set very quickly and sometimes he overextends and gets off balance and becomes vulnerable to an inside pass rush move. We saw a lot of teams actually do this with stunts against us last year, doing a lot of twists and trying to get under our tackles.
With Parks, he'll have a better size advantage against these guys, but we'll have to see how well he can adjust to the speed of the game. These guys are going to move faster than anything he's ever gone up against not only because of their physical skill but because of the environment of the game and the intensity and adrenaline both teams will be playing with. Is Parks capable of maintaining his fundamentals while having to move faster than he's ever moved in his life? Parks likes to be physical and he's a big tough bastard, but he's going to have to be able to play with light feet at times on Saturday night and catch up to guys that are fully capable of running right by him.
On the inside, we've talked about Trotter. I'll be really curious to see how Putnam has developed over the last year. I think last year he was thrown into a situation that he wasn't quite ready to be in. There were still some things he really needed to improve on before being truly ready to be a starter at this level, I think most notably his flexibility. Well now he's had a year to work and get better and change his body a bit and he's also got a bunch of snaps under his belt. I would anticipate him being markedly improved and in a much better position to really be successful in this role.
I've always been a big fan of Matt Bockhorst. There were times in 2018 and 2019 that I thought he should have been playing an awful lot more than he was, perhaps even starting. In 2020 he was really inconsistent, which was disappointing. I think he's shown good ability as a drive blocker and he's got good athleticism when he pulls, which he'll do a lot, but he struggle in his pass pro and had a hard time keeping his balance. As I stated I do think he'd be the best option, physically, at center and I also would support that move because I think Paul Tchio is going to be a fantastic player and I thought he should have played more last year, certainly ahead of Mason Trotter.
We've got a bevy of young offensive linemen that I don't even see on the depth chart so hard to know if they'll play much and certainly very difficult to assess how well they could play. i'd probably suggest that unless one of them has just blown up and shown out in camp that throwing them into this fire might do more harm than good for our team and for that individual player and it might be best to save their debut for SC State.
Here's the brass tax. The OL is going to look awful for most of the game Saturday night. But Georgia's defensive front is going to make a lot of offensive lines look awful all year. I would be very hesitant to hit the panic button if/when the OL underperforms on Saturday because they'll have plenty, plenty of time to improve before seeing a front close to Georgia's caliber again. The question is will the offense be able to work around the OL's deficiencies through scheme and can the OL perform well enough at the right times in order to deliver what Clemson needs to win? Can we be effective in a quick passing game, outside runs, screens, things that can neutralize their defensive front and maybe pull a guy out of the box and through that create more run or standard drop back pass opportunities?
Its going to help that we have some speedy, rangy guys that can make plays in the open field, we have some WRs with serious height advantages, and we have a QB who can throw the ball on an absolute rope. One of the NFL rookie QBs, I think it was Zach Wilson, had an interesting quote about adjusting to the NFL and he said "at the college level, the ball moves faster than the players. At the NFL level the players move faster than the ball." When you've got a QB that can throw it with the type of velocity that DJ can it creates a lot of advantages and particularly at the college level where the windows for those tight throws are a little larger and don't close quite as fast. If we can protect, then I think there will be some windows to throw into. We've got some matchup advantages against a really inexperienced secondary and a secondary that has kind of been culled together over the offseason.
I know everyone is going to be anxious about the DK matchup, and it'll be interesting to see. Do we get 2020 DK or do we get 2019 DK? I think that's an important distinction. In 2018 and 2019 DK showed a lot of physicality, a willingness to go and be a tough player. He played with a lot of intensity and aggressiveness and eventhough he was very raw when he played corner and didn't great fundamentals he made up for a lot of that with his intensity and effort and overall athleticism. In 2020 we really didn't see any of that. He became much more hesitant, tentative. Didn't seem to want to be physical and we saw several examples of him not being willing to come up and make a tackle. There were a lot of reports last year that he, let's just say, didn't have his head quite in the right place and was probably fortunate that he didn't get removed from the team sooner than he did. I think by the end of 2020 he had pretty much mentally moved on from Clemson and, to be honest, I think Clemson had kind of moved on from him. I really don't know what made him decide to stay, I think that was a surprise to everyone and obviously he wore out his welcome pretty quickly after deciding to return.
But DK is a very good player. He's a fantastic athlete, he's a rangy guy at corner, long, good ball skills. And when he's motivated and playing his best he's really difficult to deal with because he's physical and not afraid to play really tight coverage. If he's improved in his technique he certainly has the ability to take away good receivers. I think a 100% Justyn Ross is better than a 100% DK but I also don't think its like Ross will be running free against him every play, assuming he's even covering Ross at all.
We know the story on Ladson and Ngata. They need to stay healthy and deliver on their promise. In the meantime, I think EJ is ready to step up and be a big time playmaker, he started showing up late last year and he's clearly got a skill set that makes him special. I think Ajou will show a ton of improvement. He was very raw last year and I think its only natural that after really getting formal coaching and training he would show major improvement.
Then you add a lot of the speed and open field abilities of Dixon and Specter and hopefully we'll see some of Shipley and maybe another freshman or 2 and I think there's a lot of weapons. Pace might have a tough night given that he's a more physical, interior runner, I think he'll have a hard time finding much daylight.
So, going into Georgia, the pieces are certainly there for us to hit some big plays and score. We've got to protect just long enough to let DJU get it off. And don't forget about DJ in the run game, the guy is 250lbs and in a short yardage situation he might be our best guy.
In 2020 we averaged 44 points per game, I'd anticipate averaging close to that again, in that 40 point area. We were just shy of 350 passing YPG a year ago and again, I'd expect us to stay in that same range. Hopefully we can increase our rushing success, we ranked 75th in the country a year ago but I think the strength of this offense is pretty clearly in the passing game.
For the Georgia game in particular, I wonder if this wouldn't be a good game to really jack up the tempo again and sort of employ the 2016 Alabama game philosophy of lets run 100 plays and by the end their guys will be gassed and won't be able to effectively pass rush.
Clemson Defense
This should be a really, really good defense. I mean a top 5 caliber defense based on the level of experience we have returning as well as the caliber of player that we have. Like Georgia we should be very strong up front both on the line and in our linebackers. Bresee and a healthy Tyler Davis make one hell of a 1-2 punch, and then Myles Murphy just played like an absolute super star last year. Justin Foster is back, which is a big positive again from an experience stand point and a fundamental stand point. He understands the defense and what his role is and performs it very well.
Then you've got the....X....factor. What do we get from Xavier Thomas this year? He's playing lighter and at least externally seems to be in a much better place now than he was in 2020. I had been told last year that he was dealing with a lot issues with his health, both physically and mentally. Mental health has been a factor in his life, as it is for many many people, and I think getting sick last year with Covid and then I think he immediately followed up Covid with another illness took a toll on his mind just as much as it did his body. So where a lot of people thought he might have been in the doghouse last year, that really wasn't the case and I was not surprised that he returned. I think he did have some people in his ear telling him to go pro, but he was wise enough to see that that would not have been the best decision for him. If he's truly returned to form then he's as talented as any player on the field and can absolutely be a significant difference maker.
The Xavier Thomas saga is a really good example of how Dabo and the Clemson program value the person over the player and take very seriously the role of protecting the young men that are entrusted to them and providing them a space where they can grow and improve as people and I'm very hopeful and excited for the way that the story of Xavier Thomas's time as a Clemson player is going to end.
I gotta think that Brent Venables is really excited to play with all these toys that he has. You look at guys like Bresee, Davis, Murphy, these are guys that are big enough to play inside some and athletic enough to play outside. He's got KJ Henry who I gotta believe is ready to step up in a big way, we've heard nothing but great things about Ruke. So lots of guys that can line up in a lot of different places and be effective.
And oh by the way, you've got all your LBs back as well. Skalski made a pretty quick decision after the Ohio State game that he would return. I don't think he was very satisfied with the way things ended for him and, you know, he wasn't a guy who was sacrificing an early NFL slot so barring injury he can really only improve his situation by returning. I really, really like Baylon Spector. He plays with a lot of aggression and he's physical, he's good at finding the ball. I think he had some issues with consistency in assignment and getting out of position at times, getting fooled at times, but I think he's been pretty underrated. That said, LaVonta Bentley simply must see the field more this year, there's no two ways about that.
Remember when we were all disappointed that we lost the Justin Flowe sweepstakes and had to settle for that other 5 star LB? Well that other 5 star LB looks like he's going to be a super star. I'm really excited to see what Trenton Simpson brings this year and he should add another element to our pass rush. He's not as big, obviously, as Simmons was but he's got a similar ability to play in a lot of different spots. We've heard a lot of good things about Barrett Carter as well and I'm excited to see him in action.
And then we get to the secondary. We've not recruited to as high a level at safety, obviously, as we have at other positions on defense. I think Nolan Turner was another one of these hand out scholarships. He's certainly proven to be a very reliable player, a guy who we can depend on to be where he's supposed to be and he's made some big plays for us. But he's also shown that he is limited athletically and at times has been a liability. Having a great defensive front and an aggressive pass rush can help hide some of the problems in a secondary, but you can't hid them forever. I will say that I do have a lot of trust in Turner form a leadership stand point and I think his experience is invaluable and will help him continue to make some plays and be successful.
We've got similar athleticism challenges in Zanders. He really struggled, I think certainly moreso that Turner, against the pass last year. I thought he was better, though perhaps still not great, when he played a little closer to the LOS and was able to reduce the amount of space he was responsible for. From a snap count standpoint he's coming back with a lot of experience which should help him out quite a bit, but I think there's a physical mismatch here with Zanders and most of the Georgia receivers.
At corner I think we've got a really good tandem there with Booth and Davis. Obviously we know about Davis's situation and it seems like he's going to play. I would assume that if he was suspended that would have been announced by now but I guess we'll see.
Similarly to Georgia our biggest defensive weakness is in our secondary but I don't think they're as deep at WR as we are and I think our corners are better and deeper, and I think our QB has a more talented arm than does JT Daniels. But our QB has a better arm than most college QBs so that's not to say that Daniels is a scrub by any means.
You avid My Thoughts (Long) readers know that I believe that scoring defense is the most important statistic in football and last year we broke quite a streak of finishing in the top 5 in that category and ranked 18th. I fully, fully expect us to be one of the best in the country in that metric again in 2021 and I'd anticipate that we get back into the top 10 in total defnese as well.
In terms of what 2021 holds, Covid is still around. Its still a factor and I've no doubt that at some point this season we will be affected by it. It sounds like we've hit the 85% vaccination mark which is very important because it significantly reduces the amount of testing that is done and, as we know, if you test less then you get less positives. I would really love to see us get to the 100% mark but I'm not sure how realistic that is in season as we know the vaccine can come with some rough side effects and I don't think you'd want a guy missing a game because of reaction to the vaccine. Obviously I don't know who is or isn't vaccinated but we've got some opportunity with SC State on 9/11 and a bye week after BC to potentially shore up those last guys getting the vaccine where side effects wouldn't result in them missing important game time.
But I fully expect that at some point someone will test positive or some team somewhere will have an outbreak. I would be very surprised if every single game, nationwide, was played this year. I think teams in major conferences obviously have a lot of financial reasons to want to push through and get every game played and the conferences have made it pretty clear that there will be no FSU type shenanigans allowed this year.
I think the Georgia game is pretty clearly going to be an important indicator of where we finish. I think if we get by Georgia then 12-0 absolutely should be on the table. I don't really see anyone else on our schedule that poses a threat or can match our personnel on paper. I do think that its not quite as much a cake walk as it has been in some recent years. I think BC, Syracuse, NC State should all be improved from where they've been the last couple years. I think Louisville could be improved. FSU will be interesting, they're going to be going through a bit of a talent rebuild and obviously there's going to be a lot of hard feelings going into that game. South Carolina is South Carolina and I'm glad we'll be getting back to our annual beat down on them. I'm still not fully satisfied that we've completely avenged the 5 in a row they got on us.
All that said, I'm glad football season is finally back and that it will be back with some sense of normalcy with full stadiums and big games with big atmospheres. I think this Clemson team has the pieces to win a national championship in 2021 but there will be obstacles along the way. I think offensively we'll take a huge leap in 2022 with the OL but I don't think we're going to be struggling to score points much this season either. This defense should be back very close to what we saw in 2018 with a dominant line that can hopefully cover up for some deficiencies in the back field.
But most of all I'm curious to see how this team responds. New QB, new leadership at RB, a lot of young guys having to step in and fill big shoes. I hope they can learn to like getting punched in the face because Saturday night they're going to have to learn very quickly how to respond to it. If the last decade is any indication, they'll respond just fine.
Go Tigers!
The 2021 football season is finally upon us and right out of the gate, we're going to learn whether or not this Clemson team has the mettle to be a national championship team. One of the biggest questions I think you can have about any team in a given year is how will they respond to adversity? How will they respond when things don't go their way and they're on the ropes? How will they respond when they get punched in the face?
In the past we've had to wait several weeks to really find that answer for Clemson teams. Clemson will largely outmatch virtually every team on their schedule, but by opening up with a Georgia team that is a national championship contender in their own right, we will probably get the answer to the adversity question very quickly in 2021.
Clemson teams over the last decade have generally been very good at rising up in the face of adversity, primarily because Clemson players rarely ever get to the point where they don't believe they can win. When you're in a program that has delivered big wins, multiple championships, and has overcome adversity to win those big games and beat really good teams then its easy to have confidence in your ability to persevere - even if you weren't on the team when some of those wins occurred. This is a culture of confidence and belief in oneself that great programs pass on from one class to the next.
I'm a firm believer that in order to maintain that level of confidence, you need on the field leaders who other players can trust will pull them through. In 2009, the players genuinely believed they always had a chance to win as long as CJ Spiller was on the field. In 2011 - 2013, it was Sammy Watkins and Nuk Hopkins. In 2014 it was the defensive front, in 2015-2016 it was Deshaun Watson and Mike Williams. In recent years its been Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne. And those aren't the only names. Guys like Christian Wilkins and Ben Boulware and Shaq Lawson, all come to mind as guys that fans, coaches, and - most importantly - other players knew they could trust to step up and deliver a spark when the team needed it.
So the question is, when Clemson gets punched in the face on Saturday night, who will those leaders be? Who will be the spark? What group of, say 7 or 8 players will forge the identity of this Clemson team? There are some obvious answers, but the obvious won't be enough to lead Clemson to its 4th national championship.
Make no mistake, Clemson is going to get punched in the face on Saturday night. And this group better be ready to respond to it.
**Before diving into the offense and defense, I'd like to take this platform to say that I will be in Clemson for the BC game and am looking for 2 tickets for me and my dad and, of course, a parking pass. If anyone's got extras please let me know.
**Also, as a trigger warning, this post will be discussing the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the upcoming football season. I will be doing my best to not make it political, as I think there are plenty of political/scientific/conspiracy threads on here for me and all of you to discuss this topic. I will be attempting to discuss it objectively and solely in the reality that it exists and can/will impact football season. So if even a mention of COVID-19 bothers you, you may want to jump out of the thread now and pop some ivermectin.
Now, moving on.
Clemson Offense
I'm not going to waste a lot of time talking about breaking in a new QB, or being uncertain about the RB rotation, or which WR will step up and have a break through year (hint: its EJ). None of that matters one little bit if we can't protect that QB and block for those RBs. So mostly we're going to talk about that.
I was interested to see that UGA didn't release a depth chart and, quite frankly, we have so many "ORs" on ours that we might as well not have released one. I saw that Mason Trotter is listed as the starter at center, and I'll be anxiously watching to see if that is, in fact, who we....trot....out there on the first play.
Most of you have seen me over the years be highly critical of our philosophy on recruiting numbers on the OL and our head coach's tendency to gift scholarships to players that he has some sort of emotional attachment to. I have more or less learned to live with it as the successes in Dabo's philosophy has clearly far outweighed the failures, but my frustration may reach a tipping point if Mason Trotter is our starting center on Saturday night.
Georgia unquestionably has the best defensive front that we'll play against all year, maybe even through the playoff, and lining up a 285lb (soaking wet) center who should be playing at Coastal Carolina against a 6'6 340lb probably high round draft pick is probably a cause for concern.
Does this mean that Hunter Rayburn would be an amazing player and blow us all away? I'm guessing not. At the very least Rayburn would have more size to matchup and was actually a major college prospect out of high school. Personally I was hoping to see Bockhorst slide into center and Tchio take over and left guard, and perhaps we'll see that lineup at some point on Saturday.
Look, Mason Trotter could play the entire game Saturday night and could play well and Clemson could win. But having Trotter out there against a legit NFL caliber defensive tackle is a liability for Clemson. There's a reason that the 8th grade C-team doesn't practice against the high school varsity. There's a gap in size, strength, and skill that is unnerving. And no disrespect to Trotter as a person, I'm sure he's a wonderful guy and he'll go to heaven one day, and its not his fault that he's in this situation, but the odds are against him being able to be consistently successful and provide a winning performance for Clemson Saturday night.
That said, any offensive line is going to have a hard time with this Georgia defense and there are other matchups beyond the Trotter vs Davis matchup to keep our eye on. I was hoping to see McFadden stay at RT and Parks stay at LT. I've made no secret that I believe Parks will be an upgrade over Jackson Carman in terms of his technique and overall quality of play on a consistent basis. Parks won't be an upgrade in athleticism, but he will be much more sure footed in terms of being where he's supposed to be and playing the way he's supposed to play. So to my mind, Parks is capable of stepping in and being a starting LT.
Parks is also 6'5 vs McFadden at 6'2. McFadden I think is fundamentally sound and has proven to be more athletic than perhaps was initially anticipated in his recruiting. He's been the most consistent player on our OL over the last two seasons and I think he'll be the best player on this OL in 2021. But, at 6'2 he's challenged against rangy speed rushers which are going to be more prevalent on the left side. Nolan Smith will have a speed advantage and a length advantage over McFadden that he won't have over Parks in pass rushing situations and at 6'5 Travon Walker also figures to have a length advantage on McFadden.
Now McFadden can make up for this with technique, and he's done this in the past. He will have to play very soundly with his hands and keep these longer guys from getting their arms in on him and creating separation. Where we've seen him struggle at times though is in order to do this he has to pass set very quickly and sometimes he overextends and gets off balance and becomes vulnerable to an inside pass rush move. We saw a lot of teams actually do this with stunts against us last year, doing a lot of twists and trying to get under our tackles.
With Parks, he'll have a better size advantage against these guys, but we'll have to see how well he can adjust to the speed of the game. These guys are going to move faster than anything he's ever gone up against not only because of their physical skill but because of the environment of the game and the intensity and adrenaline both teams will be playing with. Is Parks capable of maintaining his fundamentals while having to move faster than he's ever moved in his life? Parks likes to be physical and he's a big tough bastard, but he's going to have to be able to play with light feet at times on Saturday night and catch up to guys that are fully capable of running right by him.
On the inside, we've talked about Trotter. I'll be really curious to see how Putnam has developed over the last year. I think last year he was thrown into a situation that he wasn't quite ready to be in. There were still some things he really needed to improve on before being truly ready to be a starter at this level, I think most notably his flexibility. Well now he's had a year to work and get better and change his body a bit and he's also got a bunch of snaps under his belt. I would anticipate him being markedly improved and in a much better position to really be successful in this role.
I've always been a big fan of Matt Bockhorst. There were times in 2018 and 2019 that I thought he should have been playing an awful lot more than he was, perhaps even starting. In 2020 he was really inconsistent, which was disappointing. I think he's shown good ability as a drive blocker and he's got good athleticism when he pulls, which he'll do a lot, but he struggle in his pass pro and had a hard time keeping his balance. As I stated I do think he'd be the best option, physically, at center and I also would support that move because I think Paul Tchio is going to be a fantastic player and I thought he should have played more last year, certainly ahead of Mason Trotter.
We've got a bevy of young offensive linemen that I don't even see on the depth chart so hard to know if they'll play much and certainly very difficult to assess how well they could play. i'd probably suggest that unless one of them has just blown up and shown out in camp that throwing them into this fire might do more harm than good for our team and for that individual player and it might be best to save their debut for SC State.
Here's the brass tax. The OL is going to look awful for most of the game Saturday night. But Georgia's defensive front is going to make a lot of offensive lines look awful all year. I would be very hesitant to hit the panic button if/when the OL underperforms on Saturday because they'll have plenty, plenty of time to improve before seeing a front close to Georgia's caliber again. The question is will the offense be able to work around the OL's deficiencies through scheme and can the OL perform well enough at the right times in order to deliver what Clemson needs to win? Can we be effective in a quick passing game, outside runs, screens, things that can neutralize their defensive front and maybe pull a guy out of the box and through that create more run or standard drop back pass opportunities?
Its going to help that we have some speedy, rangy guys that can make plays in the open field, we have some WRs with serious height advantages, and we have a QB who can throw the ball on an absolute rope. One of the NFL rookie QBs, I think it was Zach Wilson, had an interesting quote about adjusting to the NFL and he said "at the college level, the ball moves faster than the players. At the NFL level the players move faster than the ball." When you've got a QB that can throw it with the type of velocity that DJ can it creates a lot of advantages and particularly at the college level where the windows for those tight throws are a little larger and don't close quite as fast. If we can protect, then I think there will be some windows to throw into. We've got some matchup advantages against a really inexperienced secondary and a secondary that has kind of been culled together over the offseason.
I know everyone is going to be anxious about the DK matchup, and it'll be interesting to see. Do we get 2020 DK or do we get 2019 DK? I think that's an important distinction. In 2018 and 2019 DK showed a lot of physicality, a willingness to go and be a tough player. He played with a lot of intensity and aggressiveness and eventhough he was very raw when he played corner and didn't great fundamentals he made up for a lot of that with his intensity and effort and overall athleticism. In 2020 we really didn't see any of that. He became much more hesitant, tentative. Didn't seem to want to be physical and we saw several examples of him not being willing to come up and make a tackle. There were a lot of reports last year that he, let's just say, didn't have his head quite in the right place and was probably fortunate that he didn't get removed from the team sooner than he did. I think by the end of 2020 he had pretty much mentally moved on from Clemson and, to be honest, I think Clemson had kind of moved on from him. I really don't know what made him decide to stay, I think that was a surprise to everyone and obviously he wore out his welcome pretty quickly after deciding to return.
But DK is a very good player. He's a fantastic athlete, he's a rangy guy at corner, long, good ball skills. And when he's motivated and playing his best he's really difficult to deal with because he's physical and not afraid to play really tight coverage. If he's improved in his technique he certainly has the ability to take away good receivers. I think a 100% Justyn Ross is better than a 100% DK but I also don't think its like Ross will be running free against him every play, assuming he's even covering Ross at all.
We know the story on Ladson and Ngata. They need to stay healthy and deliver on their promise. In the meantime, I think EJ is ready to step up and be a big time playmaker, he started showing up late last year and he's clearly got a skill set that makes him special. I think Ajou will show a ton of improvement. He was very raw last year and I think its only natural that after really getting formal coaching and training he would show major improvement.
Then you add a lot of the speed and open field abilities of Dixon and Specter and hopefully we'll see some of Shipley and maybe another freshman or 2 and I think there's a lot of weapons. Pace might have a tough night given that he's a more physical, interior runner, I think he'll have a hard time finding much daylight.
So, going into Georgia, the pieces are certainly there for us to hit some big plays and score. We've got to protect just long enough to let DJU get it off. And don't forget about DJ in the run game, the guy is 250lbs and in a short yardage situation he might be our best guy.
In 2020 we averaged 44 points per game, I'd anticipate averaging close to that again, in that 40 point area. We were just shy of 350 passing YPG a year ago and again, I'd expect us to stay in that same range. Hopefully we can increase our rushing success, we ranked 75th in the country a year ago but I think the strength of this offense is pretty clearly in the passing game.
For the Georgia game in particular, I wonder if this wouldn't be a good game to really jack up the tempo again and sort of employ the 2016 Alabama game philosophy of lets run 100 plays and by the end their guys will be gassed and won't be able to effectively pass rush.
Clemson Defense
This should be a really, really good defense. I mean a top 5 caliber defense based on the level of experience we have returning as well as the caliber of player that we have. Like Georgia we should be very strong up front both on the line and in our linebackers. Bresee and a healthy Tyler Davis make one hell of a 1-2 punch, and then Myles Murphy just played like an absolute super star last year. Justin Foster is back, which is a big positive again from an experience stand point and a fundamental stand point. He understands the defense and what his role is and performs it very well.
Then you've got the....X....factor. What do we get from Xavier Thomas this year? He's playing lighter and at least externally seems to be in a much better place now than he was in 2020. I had been told last year that he was dealing with a lot issues with his health, both physically and mentally. Mental health has been a factor in his life, as it is for many many people, and I think getting sick last year with Covid and then I think he immediately followed up Covid with another illness took a toll on his mind just as much as it did his body. So where a lot of people thought he might have been in the doghouse last year, that really wasn't the case and I was not surprised that he returned. I think he did have some people in his ear telling him to go pro, but he was wise enough to see that that would not have been the best decision for him. If he's truly returned to form then he's as talented as any player on the field and can absolutely be a significant difference maker.
The Xavier Thomas saga is a really good example of how Dabo and the Clemson program value the person over the player and take very seriously the role of protecting the young men that are entrusted to them and providing them a space where they can grow and improve as people and I'm very hopeful and excited for the way that the story of Xavier Thomas's time as a Clemson player is going to end.
I gotta think that Brent Venables is really excited to play with all these toys that he has. You look at guys like Bresee, Davis, Murphy, these are guys that are big enough to play inside some and athletic enough to play outside. He's got KJ Henry who I gotta believe is ready to step up in a big way, we've heard nothing but great things about Ruke. So lots of guys that can line up in a lot of different places and be effective.
And oh by the way, you've got all your LBs back as well. Skalski made a pretty quick decision after the Ohio State game that he would return. I don't think he was very satisfied with the way things ended for him and, you know, he wasn't a guy who was sacrificing an early NFL slot so barring injury he can really only improve his situation by returning. I really, really like Baylon Spector. He plays with a lot of aggression and he's physical, he's good at finding the ball. I think he had some issues with consistency in assignment and getting out of position at times, getting fooled at times, but I think he's been pretty underrated. That said, LaVonta Bentley simply must see the field more this year, there's no two ways about that.
Remember when we were all disappointed that we lost the Justin Flowe sweepstakes and had to settle for that other 5 star LB? Well that other 5 star LB looks like he's going to be a super star. I'm really excited to see what Trenton Simpson brings this year and he should add another element to our pass rush. He's not as big, obviously, as Simmons was but he's got a similar ability to play in a lot of different spots. We've heard a lot of good things about Barrett Carter as well and I'm excited to see him in action.
And then we get to the secondary. We've not recruited to as high a level at safety, obviously, as we have at other positions on defense. I think Nolan Turner was another one of these hand out scholarships. He's certainly proven to be a very reliable player, a guy who we can depend on to be where he's supposed to be and he's made some big plays for us. But he's also shown that he is limited athletically and at times has been a liability. Having a great defensive front and an aggressive pass rush can help hide some of the problems in a secondary, but you can't hid them forever. I will say that I do have a lot of trust in Turner form a leadership stand point and I think his experience is invaluable and will help him continue to make some plays and be successful.
We've got similar athleticism challenges in Zanders. He really struggled, I think certainly moreso that Turner, against the pass last year. I thought he was better, though perhaps still not great, when he played a little closer to the LOS and was able to reduce the amount of space he was responsible for. From a snap count standpoint he's coming back with a lot of experience which should help him out quite a bit, but I think there's a physical mismatch here with Zanders and most of the Georgia receivers.
At corner I think we've got a really good tandem there with Booth and Davis. Obviously we know about Davis's situation and it seems like he's going to play. I would assume that if he was suspended that would have been announced by now but I guess we'll see.
Similarly to Georgia our biggest defensive weakness is in our secondary but I don't think they're as deep at WR as we are and I think our corners are better and deeper, and I think our QB has a more talented arm than does JT Daniels. But our QB has a better arm than most college QBs so that's not to say that Daniels is a scrub by any means.
You avid My Thoughts (Long) readers know that I believe that scoring defense is the most important statistic in football and last year we broke quite a streak of finishing in the top 5 in that category and ranked 18th. I fully, fully expect us to be one of the best in the country in that metric again in 2021 and I'd anticipate that we get back into the top 10 in total defnese as well.
In terms of what 2021 holds, Covid is still around. Its still a factor and I've no doubt that at some point this season we will be affected by it. It sounds like we've hit the 85% vaccination mark which is very important because it significantly reduces the amount of testing that is done and, as we know, if you test less then you get less positives. I would really love to see us get to the 100% mark but I'm not sure how realistic that is in season as we know the vaccine can come with some rough side effects and I don't think you'd want a guy missing a game because of reaction to the vaccine. Obviously I don't know who is or isn't vaccinated but we've got some opportunity with SC State on 9/11 and a bye week after BC to potentially shore up those last guys getting the vaccine where side effects wouldn't result in them missing important game time.
But I fully expect that at some point someone will test positive or some team somewhere will have an outbreak. I would be very surprised if every single game, nationwide, was played this year. I think teams in major conferences obviously have a lot of financial reasons to want to push through and get every game played and the conferences have made it pretty clear that there will be no FSU type shenanigans allowed this year.
I think the Georgia game is pretty clearly going to be an important indicator of where we finish. I think if we get by Georgia then 12-0 absolutely should be on the table. I don't really see anyone else on our schedule that poses a threat or can match our personnel on paper. I do think that its not quite as much a cake walk as it has been in some recent years. I think BC, Syracuse, NC State should all be improved from where they've been the last couple years. I think Louisville could be improved. FSU will be interesting, they're going to be going through a bit of a talent rebuild and obviously there's going to be a lot of hard feelings going into that game. South Carolina is South Carolina and I'm glad we'll be getting back to our annual beat down on them. I'm still not fully satisfied that we've completely avenged the 5 in a row they got on us.
All that said, I'm glad football season is finally back and that it will be back with some sense of normalcy with full stadiums and big games with big atmospheres. I think this Clemson team has the pieces to win a national championship in 2021 but there will be obstacles along the way. I think offensively we'll take a huge leap in 2022 with the OL but I don't think we're going to be struggling to score points much this season either. This defense should be back very close to what we saw in 2018 with a dominant line that can hopefully cover up for some deficiencies in the back field.
But most of all I'm curious to see how this team responds. New QB, new leadership at RB, a lot of young guys having to step in and fill big shoes. I hope they can learn to like getting punched in the face because Saturday night they're going to have to learn very quickly how to respond to it. If the last decade is any indication, they'll respond just fine.
Go Tigers!
