OT: Afghanistan...

[Willence]

One thing the last two administrations have totally gotten wrong is our withdrawal from Afghanistan. We've given a lot of lives and a lot of effort to providing some semblance of order to that nation. Now we're pulling out and everything is falling apart. What was the point of going if we weren't going to hold things together? Politicians refer to endless wars but we've had (I believe) 1 combat death there in the last 18 months or so. We had 3500 troops stationed there. We still have 26,000 troops in South Korea. We have 6200 in Guam. We have 36k in Germany. We have 12k in Italy. We have 4k in Bahrain. The list goes on and on.

As a result of this, girls will be pulled out schools. Many will be raped. Anyone that tried to help the US build something in Afghanistan will be tortured or killed or perhaps both. We've just dishonored all we sent our troops to do there and almost guaranteed we'll have to be back there again at some point. All for politics? We are such a stupid country these days led by such stupid and self-serving people. It's disgusting what we've done there based on a false narrative. What idiot would ever trust the US to do what's right and stand by them any more?

 

[tigerGUY]

One thing the last two administrations have totally gotten wrong is our withdrawal from Afghanistan. We've given a lot of lives and a lot of effort to providing some semblance of order to that nation. Now we're pulling out and everything is falling apart. What was the point of going if we weren't going to hold things together? Politicians refer to endless wars but we've had (I believe) 1 combat death there in the last 18 months or so. We had 3500 troops stationed there. We still have 26,000 troops in South Korea. We have 6200 in Guam. We have 36k in Germany. We have 12k in Italy. We have 4k in Bahrain. The list goes on and on.

As a result of this, girls will be pulled out schools. Many will be raped. Anyone that tried to help the US build something in Afghanistan will be tortured or kills or perhaps both. We've just dishonored all we sent our troops to do there and almost guaranteed we'll have to be back there again at some point. All for politics? We are such a stupid country these days led by such stupid and self-serving people. It's disgusting what we've done there based on a false narrative. What idiot would ever trust the US to do what's right and stand by them any more?

The problem is the politicians (both sides) forgot WTF they work for. It's about power now.

 

[allorangec]

It’s terrible but we were there for 20 years? Maybe we are terrible trainers, but they have to want it. Over half of their military is running, surrendering, or joining the Taliban.

we gave them an opportunity to be a country. They chose to remain a different a place of many small fiefdoms.

 

[Rockow2000]

Welp, I have spent quite a bit of time in Afghanistan, Iraq and Middle East. I have empathy for our friends in those countries, but we are just not very good at Nation building using our military. Real reason is that we need to pivot to focus on the real enemy, China. Well we have been focused in ME, they have been undermining us in all facets of competition around the world, and we are losing badly.

 

[Intracoastal]

You can't say that refuge lives matter in Mexico and yet at the same time leave the people of Afghanistan to be slaughtered. You can't say it's inhumane to not let them cross the border while at the same time say it's not inhumane to have men, women, and children decapitated because of our abrupt actions.

It's the definition of politics talking out both sides of their mouth.



What we are doing to the afghan people is horrible.

 

[AustinTiger77]

After 9/11 we had to "do something" to make ourselves feel like we had responded, and the misadventures in Afghanistan and Iraq were that "something." Both huge mistakes, with not much lasting progress.

Lot of sunk cost fallacy thinking that goes into the idea of staying in Afghanistan. We should never have had such a large presence there- nor for so long, unless our stated mission was a full takeover and rebuild, which we weren't going to do. All the crying about the lives sacrificed etc should have been thought about BEFORE we committed our military personnel to such a fools errand.

On the other hand, they were both great for defense contractors.

 

[ChicagoTiger85]

Very sad. Amazingly bad 20/20 hindsight from people claiming that Afghanistan was a mistake.

 

[firegiver]

It sucks, but being a nation building imperialist country gets old. Ask Great Britain.

 

[90Orange]

Welp, I have spent quite a bit of time in Afghanistan, Iraq and Middle East. I have empathy for our friends in those countries, but we are just not very good at Nation building using our military. Real reason is that we need to pivot to focus on the real enemy, China. Well we have been focused in ME, they have been undermining us in all facets of competition around the world, and we are losing badly.

Apparently we can’t focus on anyone but the racists and misogynists in our own military. From what I hear we no longer train our soldiers to fight- we train them to think about others feelings. Go Navy! Thank you for your service and thankful you were trained to be an alpha. Your job may not be over sadly.

 

[Jam48Allay]

It's what happens when you don't fight wars 2 win..It makes me sick that politicians send our kids 2 fight wars they have no intention of winning and are just doing enough 2 keep the money flowing..If we wanted 2 completely and utterly destroy the Taliban just like we eventually did ISIS we could've..

 

[AustinTiger77]

It sucks, but being a nation building imperialist country gets old. Ask Great Britain.

Great Britain had to though. Otherwise, that dreary little island would have been their only source for goods and wealth. Much better when they can conquer and steal resources from distant lands of "others."

By the way, Exterminate All the Brutes is worth watching.

 

[Mr. Roger Dorn]

Trigger warning, cold-hearted isolationism.

If loosely-defined objectives weren’t met after twenty years there they wouldn’t be met after twenty more. The US has no responsibility, and frankly no place, to build a nation that meets our standards, anywhere. We were never going to get the Afghan government, military, and police prepared to handle extremist groups on their own. Twenty years of Western boots on the ground only fueled their hate.

I feel terrible for former troops who have to look back and wonder what the hell the point of it all was. I hope guilt eventually eats away at the decision makers responsible for every American killed or maimed, preferably in the form of nasty stomach ulcers.

 

[Solid Orange Blood]

We're there for the drugs. Lol at thinking we actually give a shit about a country's citizens.

 

[ClemsonGentleman]

We should have seeked the counsel of the Russians before we started.

 

[PawsFan_]

One thing the last two administrations have totally gotten wrong is our withdrawal from Afghanistan. We've given a lot of lives and a lot of effort to providing some semblance of order to that nation. Now we're pulling out and everything is falling apart. What was the point of going if we weren't going to hold things together? Politicians refer to endless wars but we've had (I believe) 1 combat death there in the last 18 months or so. We had 3500 troops stationed there. We still have 26,000 troops in South Korea. We have 6200 in Guam. We have 36k in Germany. We have 12k in Italy. We have 4k in Bahrain. The list goes on and on.

As a result of this, girls will be pulled out schools. Many will be raped. Anyone that tried to help the US build something in Afghanistan will be tortured or killed or perhaps both. We've just dishonored all we sent our troops to do there and almost guaranteed we'll have to be back there again at some point. All for politics? We are such a stupid country these days led by such stupid and self-serving people. It's disgusting what we've done there based on a false narrative. What idiot would ever trust the US to do what's right and stand by them any more?

This has been my day job for 8 years now.

- Our troops there are not participating in active combat operations and haven't for some time. That's why the deaths have been low. Train, Advise, Assist.
- When fighting wars, its best fight'm as the away team. By being in Afghanistan, we ensured the jihidist crazies came to fight us there and subsequently die.
- We have given the Afghans more than enough to stand on their own to fight. Their soldiers are well trained and equipped. Many of their leaders are good. It's up to them to stand and fight now.
- Unfortunately, Afghan culture is so foreign to Western, Christian thinking. Afghans have no concept of a Afghan country. They are a collection of tribes. The people obey their Sheik. Many of them would be fighting each other if we weren't there. We tried to build a western republic, and that's just not how they do business. The central government will not have the influence over the people that the tribal leaders do.
- Pakistan has no interest in a stable Afghan. The internal fighting ensures their border is secure.
- There are a lot of good Afghans who wanted to build a future for their country. Sadly, many of them will suffer soon. The central government just can not project power throughout the country.
- Yes, the Taliban are evil. Sadly, every winter they make more Taliban babies. Just like roaches, every one you kill there's 10 more hiding in the walls.
- It's been past time for us to leave. Trump decision to pull out was right. Biden is right to continue the withdraw.
- We have not dishonored one veteran or lost American Hero.
- We will not be going back.

 

[jakefest]

This has been my day job for 8 years now.

- Our troops their are not participating in active combat operations and haven't for some time. That's why the deaths have been low. Train, Advise, Assist.
- When fighting wars, its best fight'm as the away team. By being in Afghanistan, we ensured the jihidist crazies came to fight us there and subsequently die.
- We have given the Afghans more than enough to stand on their own two fight. Their soldiers are well trained and equipped. Many of their leaders are good. It's up to them to stand and fight now.
- Unfortunately, Afghan culture is so foreign to Western, Christian thinking. Afghans have no concept of a Afghan country. They are a collection of tribes. The people obey their Sheik. Many of them would be fighting each other if we weren't there. We tried to build a western republic, and that's just not how they do business. The central government will not have the influence over the people that the tribal leaders do.
- Pakistan has no interest in a stable Afghan. The internal fighting ensures their border is secure.
- There are a lot of good Afghans who wanted to build a future for their country. Sadly, many of them will suffer soon. The central government just can not project power throughout the country.
- Yes, the Taliban are evil. Sadly, every winter they make more Taliban babies. Just like roaches, every one you kill there's 10 more hiding in the walls.
- It's been past time for us to leave. Trump decision to pull out was right. Biden is right to continue the withdraw.
- We have not dishonored one veteran or lost American Hero.
- We will not be going back.

Spent some time there and you're accurate in that each village acts as their own government so winning hearts and minds across the country of Afghanistan was never going to be possible, at least not in a way that would have allowed for the creation of a true central government that wasn't entirely corrupt.

The only thing I will say though is anyone that helped the US try to bring change, whether that be building schools, roads, running water or even acting as interpreters for example is now at risk of torture and likely death. The reality is that for all of the good we think we did, we likely just created a good many new terrorists when the Taliban flips these villages like they are doing presently. Having seen what they do firsthand, it is gut wrenching to think about especially having three young daughters of my own.

For the record, I do stand by the fact that we had to eventually pull out of there so I won't pretend I have an answer for the right vs wrong way to withdraw but I do question why we remained there after the first year or two when it was clear that we couldn't make a difference and also clear we weren't going to go in there with a heavier hand.

 

[AustinTiger77]

Spent some time there and you're accurate in that each village acts as their own government so winning hearts and minds across the country of Afghanistan was never going to be possible, at least not in a way that would have allowed for the creation of a true central government that wasn't entirely corrupt.

The only thing I will say though is anyone that helped the US try to bring change, whether that be building schools, roads, running water or even acting as interpreters for example is now at risk of torture and likely death. The reality is that for all of the good we think we did, we likely just created a good many new terrorists when the Taliban flips these villages like they are doing presently. Having seen what they do firsthand, it is gut wrenching to think about especially having three young daughters of my own.

For the record, I do stand by the fact that we had to eventually pull out of there so I won't pretend I have an answer for the right vs wrong way to withdraw but I do question why we remained there after the first year or two when it was clear that we couldn't make a difference and also clear we weren't going to go in there with a heavier hand.

It's a mistake to think of either Iraq or Afghanistan as "countries" in any way that we'd typically expect.

 

[ChicagoTiger85]

It sucks, but being a nation building imperialist country gets old. Ask Great Britain.

The Taliban sponsored groups that attacked the US. Crushing them wasn't "imperialist." I suppose it might've been too much to ask that an alternative government be set up that would ensure groups like Al Qaeda wouldn't be sheltered there.

People comparing this to the Russians' involvement in Afghanistan aren't remembering that the Russians left because the situation had become a deadly quagmire for them. The US is leaving Afghanistan because it's bored, and because the Afghans don't seem interested in doing anything to preserve what the US offered them. It's just unfortunate that the group the US fought and routed looks like it's going to so easily come back to power in much of the country. Maybe Kabul can hold out, since there are such different feelings about the government in different parts of Afghanistan.

I'm also not saying we should do this, but we still have over 30,000 troops in Germany, and up to about 50,000 in South Korea. We've had far fewer in Afghanistan for years, and as @PawsFan_ has said, we haven't been engaging in combat operations for some time. So if we're leaving Afghanistan, it's because we don't think it's important enough to have troops there anymore like we do in Europe and Asia.

 

[jakefest]

It's a mistake to think of either Iraq or Afghanistan as "countries" in any way that we'd typically expect.

Yep, very accurate statement.

 

[other1]

Very sad. Amazingly bad 20/20 hindsight from people claiming that Afghanistan was a mistake.

Considering the circumstances Afghanistan was the right move!! It was invading Iraq soon after that was the big mistake because it took the focus off the reason we were in Afghanistan in the first place.

 

[firegiver]

The Taliban sponsored groups that attacked the US. Crushing them wasn't "imperialist." I suppose it might've been too much to ask that an alternative government be set up that would ensure groups like Al Qaeda wouldn't be sheltered there.

People comparing this to the Russians' involvement in Afghanistan aren't remembering that the Russians left because the situation had become a deadly quagmire for them. The US is leaving Afghanistan because it's bored, and because the Afghans don't seem interested in doing anything to preserve what the US offered them. It's just unfortunate that the group the US fought and routed looks like it's going to so easily come back to power in much of the country. Maybe Kabul can hold out, since there are such different feelings about the government in different parts of Afghanistan.

Yes I don't disagree but also, what else would you have us do? Stay there forever taking the horse to water and waterboarding it with freedom?

 

[ChicagoTiger85]

Yes I don't disagree but also, what else would you have us do? Stay there forever taking the horse to water and waterboarding it with freedom?

I dunno, but it's not like we don't have much larger numbers of troops in other countries. Of course, South Korea and Germany (and other places where we have troops) are very different places. On the other hand, the governments of those countries haven't posed a threat to use for some time. It just seems like the last three administrations have mismanaged Afghanistan after we kicked the Taliban out in like 2 months initially.

 

[ChicagoTiger85]

Considering the circumstances Afghanistan was the right move!! It was invading Iraq soon after that was the big mistake because it took the focus off the reason we were in Afghanistan in the first place.

Yeah, Iraq should be more controversial. I don't see how people are now trying to argue that the whole Afghanistan situation was a mistake.

 

[other1]

Yeah, Iraq should be more controversial. I don't see how people are now trying to argue that the whole Afghanistan situation was a mistake.

Still waiting for us to find those Weapons of Mass Destruction

 

[ChicagoTiger85]

Still waiting for us to find those Weapons of Mass Destruction

I'm borrowing this from somewhere else (and my personal opinion is that feelings about Afghanistan and Iraq have changed as people have gotten bored with the War on Terror; we're also putting a lot of stuff down the memory hole), but:

"Ken Pollack, the CIA analyst who led the Clinton Administration’s final Iraq policy review in the summer of 2000 extensively documented the WMD issue. Specifically, he made the following points:

1) what matters with chemical weapons is the ability to produce and deploy such weapons; there is no need to maintain large inventories

2) a substantial portion of the intelligence community believes Saddam opposed maintaining large inventories

3) Iraq’s ability to deploy chemical weapons was demonstrated in the Iran-Iraq War and against the Kurds

In sum, Saddam’s WMD capability was hardly a fabrication. Iraq did not somehow forget how to produce and deploy chemical weapons after the Iran-Iraq War. As Pollack argued, this was the important thing, not large “stockpiles”."

Also:
"No serious student of Iraq during the Saddam Hussein era disputes the Iraq produced and deployed chemical weapons during the Iran-Iraq War. Saddam also deployed chemical weapons against the Kurds.

So, how did the “Bush lied” lie even get started. In part in was pure partisan politics, but frustration with the cost and outcome of the war (circa 2005) also contributed.

At the same time, many people got hung up on the notion of “stockpiles” and the fact that while some were found, there were not as many as had been thought by some people.

Ken Pollack, the well known former CIA analyst who led the Clinton Administration’s final Iraq policy review in the summer of 2000 addressed the stockpile issue prior to the invasion.

Pollack argued that many people in the intelligence community believed Saddam opposed maintaining large inventories of chemical weapons and didn’t do so. Saddam, they argued, recognized large inventories weren’t necessary. More important was was ability to produce and rapidly deploy the weapons. That, Saddam had.

Then too, these intelligence analysts believed Saddam had a serious security concern: he really didn’t even trust much of his own military outside of the Republican Guard which was mostly deployed in the center of the country. This pretty much ruled out forward positioning of chemical weapons inventories in the southeast part of Iraq (Shia country) as well as in the north (areas largely populated by Kurds).

In sum, Saddam’s apparent opposition to large chemical weapons inventories does not mean he lacked the ability to produce and deploy such weapons. He had already demonstrated that capability. It also doesn’t mean “Bush lied”."

 

[Willence]

This has been my day job for 8 years now.

- Our troops their are not participating in active combat operations and haven't for some time. That's why the deaths have been low. Train, Advise, Assist.
- When fighting wars, its best fight'm as the away team. By being in Afghanistan, we ensured the jihidist crazies came to fight us there and subsequently die.
- We have given the Afghans more than enough to stand on their own two fight. Their soldiers are well trained and equipped. Many of their leaders are good. It's up to them to stand and fight now.
- Unfortunately, Afghan culture is so foreign to Western, Christian thinking. Afghans have no concept of a Afghan country. They are a collection of tribes. The people obey their Sheik. Many of them would be fighting each other if we weren't there. We tried to build a western republic, and that's just not how they do business. The central government will not have the influence over the people that the tribal leaders do.
- Pakistan has no interest in a stable Afghan. The internal fighting ensures their border is secure.
- There are a lot of good Afghans who wanted to build a future for their country. Sadly, many of them will suffer soon. The central government just can not project power throughout the country.
- Yes, the Taliban are evil. Sadly, every winter they make more Taliban babies. Just like roaches, every one you kill there's 10 more hiding in the walls.
- It's been past time for us to leave. Trump decision to pull out was right. Biden is right to continue the withdraw.
- We have not dishonored one veteran or lost American Hero.
- We will not be going back.

Thank you for taking the time to explain what you've seen and the conclusions you've reached as a result of serving our nation. One thing you said I agree with most is it's best to fight wars as the away team. Hence another reason I have the view I do. I think we've learned many times over these fights tend to flood over to our homeland sooner or later. Best to preserve our presence there and be ready to respond when the time is right. All the stuff you said about Afghanistan is proven by history. You also have obviously seen it first hand. The Middle East is a creation of the western world. I've long contended that error in drawing up maps is a big reason why we've seen it be such an unstable region throughout our history. There may be no right answer here but I just feel like what we're doing is the wrong answer.

 

[AustinTiger77]

Yeah, Iraq should be more controversial. I don't see how people are now trying to argue that the whole Afghanistan situation was a mistake.

Our initial engagement in Afghanistan made some sense. But, the AUMF was overly broad and our mission wasn't ever clear. So, we just stayed. Afghanistan is the way it is for reasons we can't change- no matter how long we stay, unless we just fully commit to taking the place over as a colony- which we weren't/aren't ever gonna do.

 

[ChicagoTiger85]

Our initial engagement in Afghanistan made some sense. But, the AUMF was overly broad and our mission wasn't ever clear. So, we just stayed. Afghanistan is the way it is for reasons we can't change- no matter how long we stay, unless we just fully commit to taking the place over as a colony- which we weren't/aren't ever gonna do.

Japan, Germany, South Korea, etc, aren’t colonies.

 

[AustinTiger77]

Japan, Germany, South Korea, etc, aren’t colonies.

Correct. And those nations all have qualities that Afghanistan & Iraq lack: coherent national identity, shared cultural & religious identity, etc. Iraq is only a country because some ignorant a British people threw some mostly arbitrary lines on a map after WW1 and said “there’s a country.” And there’s little in Afghanistan’s history to suggest it’s even close governable by any means other than a full scale occupation/take over.

 

[AustinTiger77]

I'm borrowing this from somewhere else (and my personal opinion is that feelings about Afghanistan and Iraq have changed as people have gotten bored with the War on Terror; we're also putting a lot of stuff down the memory hole), but:

"Ken Pollack, the CIA analyst who led the Clinton Administration’s final Iraq policy review in the summer of 2000 extensively documented the WMD issue. Specifically, he made the following points:

1) what matters with chemical weapons is the ability to produce and deploy such weapons; there is no need to maintain large inventories

2) a substantial portion of the intelligence community believes Saddam opposed maintaining large inventories

3) Iraq’s ability to deploy chemical weapons was demonstrated in the Iran-Iraq War and against the Kurds

In sum, Saddam’s WMD capability was hardly a fabrication. Iraq did not somehow forget how to produce and deploy chemical weapons after the Iran-Iraq War. As Pollack argued, this was the important thing, not large “stockpiles”."

Also:
"No serious student of Iraq during the Saddam Hussein era disputes the Iraq produced and deployed chemical weapons during the Iran-Iraq War. Saddam also deployed chemical weapons against the Kurds.

So, how did the “Bush lied” lie even get started. In part in was pure partisan politics, but frustration with the cost and outcome of the war (circa 2005) also contributed.

At the same time, many people got hung up on the notion of “stockpiles” and the fact that while some were found, there were not as many as had been thought by some people.

Ken Pollack, the well known former CIA analyst who led the Clinton Administration’s final Iraq policy review in the summer of 2000 addressed the stockpile issue prior to the invasion.

Pollack argued that many people in the intelligence community believed Saddam opposed maintaining large inventories of chemical weapons and didn’t do so. Saddam, they argued, recognized large inventories weren’t necessary. More important was was ability to produce and rapidly deploy the weapons. That, Saddam had.

Then too, these intelligence analysts believed Saddam had a serious security concern: he really didn’t even trust much of his own military outside of the Republican Guard which was mostly deployed in the center of the country. This pretty much ruled out forward positioning of chemical weapons inventories in the southeast part of Iraq (Shia country) as well as in the north (areas largely populated by Kurds).

In sum, Saddam’s apparent opposition to large chemical weapons inventories does not mean he lacked the ability to produce and deploy such weapons. He had already demonstrated that capability. It also doesn’t mean “Bush lied”."

That Saddam had used chemical weapons was no secret- after all, we helped him use them against Iran. His ability to deploy such weapons only decreased in the years after that war when he wasn’t as useful to our aims. This was always only a scare tactic & thinly veiled justification for finishing off 41s incomplete mission.

 

[ChicagoTiger85]

That Saddam had used chemical weapons was no secret- after all, we helped him use them against Iran. His ability to deploy such weapons only decreased in the years after that war when he wasn’t as useful to our aims. This was always only a scare tactic & thinly veiled justification for finishing off 41s incomplete mission.

SMH

 

[ChicagoTiger85]

Correct. And those nations all have qualities that Afghanistan & Iraq lack: coherent national identity, shared cultural & religious identity, etc. Iraq is only a country because some ignorant a British people threw some mostly arbitrary lines on a map after WW1 and said “there’s a country.” And there’s little in Afghanistan’s history to suggest it’s even close governable by any means other than a full scale occupation/take over.

It was doing fairly well before the Soviet invasion

 

[firegiver]

This has been my day job for 8 years now.

- Our troops their are not participating in active combat operations and haven't for some time. That's why the deaths have been low. Train, Advise, Assist.
- When fighting wars, its best fight'm as the away team. By being in Afghanistan, we ensured the jihidist crazies came to fight us there and subsequently die.
- We have given the Afghans more than enough to stand on their own two fight. Their soldiers are well trained and equipped. Many of their leaders are good. It's up to them to stand and fight now.
- Unfortunately, Afghan culture is so foreign to Western, Christian thinking. Afghans have no concept of a Afghan country. They are a collection of tribes. The people obey their Sheik. Many of them would be fighting each other if we weren't there. We tried to build a western republic, and that's just not how they do business. The central government will not have the influence over the people that the tribal leaders do.
- Pakistan has no interest in a stable Afghan. The internal fighting ensures their border is secure.
- There are a lot of good Afghans who wanted to build a future for their country. Sadly, many of them will suffer soon. The central government just can not project power throughout the country.
- Yes, the Taliban are evil. Sadly, every winter they make more Taliban babies. Just like roaches, every one you kill there's 10 more hiding in the walls.
- It's been past time for us to leave. Trump decision to pull out was right. Biden is right to continue the withdraw.
- We have not dishonored one veteran or lost American Hero.
- We will not be going back.

I heard someone once point out that the taliban lived in caves and mined ore and had their own black smiths making guns, from scratch. No one is defeating a desert tribe that resourceful on their home turf. We did as well as possible but those people are dug in for the long haul.

 

[PAWrocka]

That Saddam had used chemical weapons was no secret- after all, we helped him use them against Iran. His ability to deploy such weapons only decreased in the years after that war when he wasn’t as useful to our aims. This was always only a scare tactic & thinly veiled justification for finishing off 41s incomplete mission.

There is a excellent docuseries on Netflix called "How to become a Tyrant". Its really well done and Saddam is featured quite prominently.

I cant remember if it was that documentary or another, but 41 was getting pressure from Congress and the International community because to pull back because the coalition's victory was so complete that the optics were just bad.

Hindsight 20/20, shouldve pushed all the way to Baghdad and crushed the Republican Guard then. You do that ... ISIS probably doesnt become a thing.

 

[AustinTiger77]

There is a excellent docuseries on Netflix called "How to become a Tyrant". Its really well done and Saddam is featured quite prominently.

I cant remember if it was that documentary or another, but 41 was getting pressure from Congress and the International community because to pull back because the coalition's victory was so complete that the optics were just bad.

Hindsight 20/20, shouldve pushed all the way to Baghdad and crushed the Republican Guard then. You do that ... ISIS probably doesnt become a thing.

You’re assuming that whatever took Saddam’s place would be better than him and his regime. That’s not a given. As for Isis, who knows. They were the flavor of the month- one of a long line of similar groups & that popped up for reasons particular to the dynamics of the day.

 

[PawsFan_]

The Middle East is a creation of the western world. I've long contended that error in drawing up maps is a big reason why we've seen it be such an unstable region throughout our history. There may be no right answer here but I just feel like what we're doing is the wrong answer.

I agree except that the lines weren't drawn in error. They we drawn very deliberately by the British and French. The Sykes-Picot agreement allowed the Brits and French to reap the spoils of the downfall of the Ottoman Empire after WW1. It divided their influence throughout the Mid East. Sykes-Picot ticked the Araba off because England had promised them autonomy in exchange for their assistance in fighting the Ottoman Empire. The UK screwed them overall with this agreement.

Maintaining instability is some areas was a goal. No one wanted the Kurds to have an independent state. The Kurds were strong. Knowing that a Kurdish state would be hard to control as a colony, the western powers divided the Kurds up between Turkey, Iraq and Syria. It's key to remember that Turks, Arabs and Kurds are different ethnic groups. They don't like it other to put it mildly. During the fight against ISIS, the Kurd (Peshmerga) were our best fighters in Northern Iraq. The YPG, were effective against ISIS in Syria.

Know that Iraqi Kurds and Syrian Kurds really don't like each other either.

It's important to note that Turkey would kill every last Kurd if they had the chance. They see them all as PKK terrorists. The US recognizes the PKK as a terrorist organization. The Turks would regularly bomb Kurd fighters while they were fighting Daesh in Iraq and Syria. Before Turkey entered the fighter against ISIS in 2015, they spent weeks bombing Kurd forces in Northern Iraq......and the Iraqi government couldn't have cared less.

The big elephant in the room in the fight against Daesh was we all knew the Kurds were striving for their own country. They were hoping for US support. In Iraq, the Pesh slowly talked about voting for independence as victory against ISIS was near. Once ISIS was out of Iraq, the Iraqi military backed by the Iranians and Turks QUICKLY, and near bloodlessly, squashed any talk of Kurd independence.

In Syria, the YPG had carved out an area in Eastern Syria that it'd have been very difficult for Assad to retake. However there was NO WAY the Turks would allow a Kurdish state on its border. The Turks were poised to invade Syria fight the Kurds. It was part of the issue between Trump and Erdogan. Turkey started partnering with Assad and Putin over the Kurd issue. The Kurd issue was Putin's attempt to drive a wedge between NATO partners Turkey and the US. The Turks did come into North Eastern Syria and set up a security zone. I think pro-Syrian force eventually took this area over from the Turks.

I think I went off in a tangent. The Mid East is a soap opera. Conflict is the norm. However, more and more the Arab nations are becoming more rational actors. The GCC countries recognizing Israel is HUGE. A lot of the petty squabbling between the Sunni countries is slowly going away. They solve their issues behind the scenes. The focus now is on Iran. Iran is a bad actor throughout the Mid East. The idea of them have a nuke scares the bejezzus out of everyone. That's a red line Israel won't let happen (my opinion). The Saudi's aren't good with it either and will come calling for US help if Iran looks like its making a bomb.

Mid East craziness keeps me employed.

 

[PawsFan_]

I heard someone once point out that the taliban lived in caves and mined ore and had their own black smiths making guns, from scratch. No one is defeating a desert tribe that resourceful on their home turf. We did as well as possible but those people are dug in for the long haul.

The Taliban live in caves and sell heroin to buy their guns.

The terrain, size and remoteness of the towns make it very difficult for a central government to exert control.

The Taliban aren't rocket scientists. They are poor farmers for the most part. Heck most of them can't read. They learn the Koran from their Iman that recites it to them. They just want an Islamic state in Afghanistan. That wouldn't be so bad if their interpretation of Islam wasn't Medieval in nature.

 

[PawsFan_]

Japan, Germany, South Korea, etc, aren’t colonies.

Well.......we let them think they aren't. 😁

 

[jakefest]

The Taliban live in cares and sell heroin to buy their guns.

The terrain, size and remoteness of the towns make it very difficult for a central government to exert control.

The Taliban aren't rocket scientists. They are poor farmers for the most part. Heck most of them can't read. The learn the Koran from their Iman that recites it to them. They just want an Islamic state in Afghanistan. They wouldn't be so bad if their interpretation of Islam wasn't Medieval in nature.

The terrain is by far the most challenging I was ever deployed to during my military career. Some of the villages are so remote and hard to reach, it's not uncommon to not have a single outside visitor in years.

The one thing we always found with the Taliban and Al Qaeda Is that they literally had nothing to live for other than their cause. That takes "hearts and minds" out of the equation and also creates a dynamic of people that aren't afraid to die. That's a much more challenging scenario to defeat without a pure forever occupation strategy and a really heavy hand.

What most won't talk about is the open border between Pakistan and Afghanistan where our Pakistani allies let reinforcements walk into the country daily to reinforce depleted Taliban resources. So the reality is that the surrounding countries didn't want the US to be successful there.

 

[WapPride]

I agree except that the lines weren't drawn in error. They we drawn very deliberately by the British and French. The Sykes-Picot agreement allowed the Brits and French to reap the spoils of the downfall of the Ottoman Empire after WW1. It divided their influence throughout the Mid East. Sykes-Picot ticked the Araba off because England had promised them autonomy in exchange for their assistance in fighting the Ottoman Empire. The UK screwed them overall with this agreement.

Maintaining instability is some areas was a goal. No one wanted the Kurds to have an independent state. The Kurds were strong. Knowing that a Kurdish state would be hard to control as a colony, the western powers divided the Kurds up between Turkey, Iraq and Syria. It's key to remember that Turks, Arabs and Kurds are different ethnic groups. They don't like it other to put it mildly. During the fight against ISIS, the Kurd (Peshmerga) were our best fighters in Northern Iraq. The YPG, were effective against ISIS in Syria.

Know that Iraqi Kurds and Syrian Kurds really don't like each other either.

It's important to note that Turkey would kill every last Kurd if they had the chance. They see them all as PKK terrorists. The US recognizes the PKK as a terrorist organization. The Turks would regularly bomb Kurd fighters while they were fighting Daesh in Iraq and Syria. Before Turkey entered the fighter against ISIS in 2015, they spent weeks bombing Kurd forces in Northern Iraq......and the Iraqi government couldn't have cared less.

The big elephant in the room in the fight against Daesh was we all knew the Kurds were striving for their own country. They were hoping for US support. In Iraq, the Pesh slowly talked about voting for independence as victory against ISIS was near. Once ISIS was out of Iraq, the Iraqi military backed by the Iranians and Turk QUICKLY, and near bloodlessly, squashed any talk of Kurd independence.

In Syria, the YPG had carved out an area in Eastern Syria that it'd have been very difficult for Assad to retake. However there was NO WAY the Turks would allow a Kurdish state on its border. The Turks were poised to invade Syria fight the Kurds. It was part of the issue between Trump and Erdogan. Turkey started partnering with Assad and Putin over the Kurd issue. The Kurd issue was Putin's attempt to drive a wedge between NATO partners Turkey and the US. The Turks did come into North Eastern Syria and set up a security zone. I think pro-Syrian force eventually took this area over from the Turks.

I think I went off in a tangent. The Mid East is a soap opera. Conflict is the norm. However, more and more the Arab nations are becoming more rational actors. The GCC countries recognizing Israel is HUGE. A lot of the petty squabbling between the Sunni countries is slowly going away. They solve their issues behind the scenes. The focus now is on Iran. Iran is a bad actor through the Mid East. The idea of them have a nuke scares the bejezzus out of everyone. That's a red line Israel won't let happen (my opinion). The Saudi's aren't good with it either and will come calling for US help if Iran looks like its making a bomb.

Mid East craziness keeps me employed.

i could read about shit like this for hours. fascinating stuff