Before placing blame, we should probably all take a step back and look at the reality of the global energy market right now. We just had an unprecedented dip in oil demand in 2020 (negative oil prices). Production trailed that dip and has trailed the consumption rise back.
Facts:
2021 US Oil production will exceed that of 2018. 2022 is projected to be the highest on record. US will show 11.9% growth from 2018 to 2022.
Meanwhile, OPEC has cut production. 2018 was right at 36.7 million barrels per day. 2021 will show right at 31.8. 2018 to 2022 will show growth of negative 7.8%.
Consumption of oil in the US has/will remain relatively flat (0.6%) over the same time period. However, consumption in China alone is expected to show a 14.2% increase over the same period of time.
End of the day here's the simple math. America is adding to global supply while showing slow demand growth, but global production is not meeting global consumption growth. When demand exceeds supply....prices rise.
Production | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021* | 2022* | Growth Since '18 |
US | 17.9 | 19.5 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 20 | 11.90% |
OPEC | 36.7 | 34.7 | 30.7 | 31.8 | 33.9 | -7.80% |
Global | 100.7 | 100.7 | 94.2 | 96.1 | 101.5 | 0.70% |
| | | | | | |
Consumption | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021* | 2022* | Growth Since '18 |
US | 20.5 | 20.5 | 18.2 | 19.7 | 20.6 | 0.60% |
China | 13.9 | 14.8 | 14.4 | 15.2 | 15.9 | 14.20% |
Global | 100 | 101.2 | 92.4 | 97.4 | 101 | 1.00% |
I realize it's easy to point at the leadership in Washington when you pay higher gas prices at the gas pump....but I'd urge you to look a little deeper.
Frequently the blame should not be placed across the isle, but across the ocean.
*Forecasts are from the September 2021 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook.