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OT - We all knew this was coming (Iran plane crash)

Likely a poorly trained SA-15 SAM Regiment. Their radar system is adequate to discern the RCS of a slow-moving passenger airliner flying westerly from Tehran, from a threat, just like the Buk was in Ukraine years ago.

But Iran will get away with it.

Not exactly the same as with MH17 shootdown over Ukraine. This is a special kind of cock-up that can only come from the life forms that inhabit the Middle East.

In the Ukraine shootdown... the likely Russian supplied (and advised/crewed) Buk SAMs were in an active combat area that had been experiencing two-way range activity. Buks and/or other SAMs had shot down Ukrainian transport planes and fast movers in previous days. I can't tell you why they didn't ID that commercial plane squawking and flying way above altitudes that would have pointed to a military purpose... but speed and RCS would be similar to a military transport. A huge F-up. But some context.

Iran shot down a plane that had just taken off from Terhan minutes before and was OUTBOUND flying slow and squawking as a civ airliner... and probably chatting with the damn Tower. NO other radar or EW systems in Iran had been knocked out, been tracking any potential hostiles etc. no ordinance impacting anything in Iran. Nothing. because we did not and were not attacking them. THEY were attacking us.
 
Somebody will blame it on Trump for killing the guy which got them on edge which caused them to be trigger happy and accidentally blast an airliner. Go figure.
We accidentally shot down an Iranian passenger jet in 1988 due to similar tensions leading to our ship feeling threatened.

@Buzzards Roost I agree with you about the moronic, partisan logic chain re: Trump, but there is only a tenuous similarity with the USS Vincennes shootdown of Iran Air 655 in July of 1988. Way different context.

1987 - Iran v. Iraq still going on. May .. USS Stark hit with a Exocet killing 37 injuring 21 and disabling the vessel. Much commentary and second-guessing of the Captain of that ship for not being more aggressive in defending his vessel. USN ships continue operation EARNEST WILL re: flagging and escorting tankers.

1988- EARNEST WILL continues. 14 April USS Samuel B Roberts strikes an Iranian Mine. 18 April US Executes op PRAYING MANTIS destroying some Iranian offshore platforms and sinking damn near the entire Iranian Navy. 3 July - USS Vincennes, while passing thru the straight of hormuz was engaged / engaging Iranian gunboats with one of her helicopters reportedly engaged with small arms fire.

IA 655 was mis-Identified by the USS Vincennes as a potential Iranian F14. Vincennes attempted 10 times to contact IA 655. No success. It was squawking as a commercial flight but was reportedly thought to be on a descending profile (not confirmed by examination of the computer data) and approaching attack range.. and was shot down.

Mistakes were made... but surely the crew and ultimately the Captain of the Vincennes was influenced by preceding events.

An civ aircraft taking off from Tehran... outbound... talking to Iranian ATC, with no (None, nada) inbound anything.... Not the same thing.

Not. Even. Close.
 
This is correct. Iran does commerce and has substantial relationships with Russia and China. If anything major ever happened to Iran, we may hear from these countries.
Unless we have a Carter or Obama type President again, this country ain't backing up like we did 4 years ago and give Iran a Get Out of Jail Free Pass. That was treason. Period.
 
There's a lot more here than meets the eye. A lot more. Per my contacts, this flips Iran from working with the Deep State (John Kerry) to working with the Patriots (Trump). The attack on the American Embassy was a CIA NSA Deep State Black Ops play to detract from the coming Declass. Trump just removed 45 NSA players. Let that sink in. The silent war continues. WWG1WGA..
 
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You have to admit that tweet was pretty bad. Not that most people running in a primary wouldn’t have done it.

Really you think that "most" would have done it? Pretty cynical and/or fatalistic view for the future of our Republic. Not saying what you think is wrong... but am horrified if that is true.
 
There's a lot more here than meets the eye. A lot more. Per my contacts, this flips Iran from working with the Deep State (John Kerry) to working with the Patriots (Trump). The attack on the American Embassy was a CIA Deep State Black Ops play to detract from the coming Declass. Let that sink in. WWG1WGA..

I'm voting sarcasm with this post. Well done.
 
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Guys, this is my day job.
- Soleimani gone really hurts them. Bad dude involved in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. This is akin to knocking Joe Burrow out of Monday's game.
- Their attack on us was symbolic only. It's shows their people they responded.
- Things are already returning to normal. But crazy and unpredictable is normal in CENTCOM.
- The plane didn't crash.


Are China and Russia really allied with Iran in any meaningful way? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I doubt they've agreed to help defend Iran.

Russia and Iran is a marriage of convenience only. They are united to help Asad and counter our influence in the region. China cares about one person, China.
 
Really you think that "most" would have done it? Pretty cynical and/or fatalistic view for the future of our Republic. Not saying what you think is wrong... but am horrified if that is true.
It’s an era when saying the worst about your opponents gets you more attention. Trump, especially, does this all the time. But it happens a lot in primaries because candidates are trying to differentiate themselves.
 
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Right. All 3 are just itching for a protracted shooting war against a coalition of the west’s democracies among which are the greatest military force in human history and the pillars of their economies. And, lets define joint naval exercises. Because 2 of those 3 have total, antiquated garbage for naval assets. What they do have would be rendered virtually useless. Sooo, the way that should read is that Iran and Russia watched on while China conducted naval exercises.

While Iran's conventional Navy is little more than a Coast Guard, they don't need a big navy. None of the GCC countries have one. Their asymmetric force though is capable and can be a pain in the ass.

Don't sleep on Ivan. He plays the game very well. While much of his gear is old, he is modernizing rapidly. I'll remind you our gear is old too.

China's Navy is getting scary strong. However they tend to stick to their own back yard. They lack bases and friends around the world to support the logistics for a global maritime force.

Sadly, despite Trump's bombast, he's done little to recapitalize our forces. He's all talk on that front.

Fly Navy!
 
@Buzzards Roost I agree with you about the moronic, partisan logic chain re: Trump, but there is only a tenuous similarity with the USS Vincennes shootdown of Iran Air 655 in July of 1988. Way different context.

1987 - Iran v. Iraq still going on. May .. USS Stark hit with a Exocet killing 37 injuring 21 and disabling the vessel. Much commentary and second-guessing of the Captain of that ship for not being more aggressive in defending his vessel. USN ships continue operation EARNEST WILL re: flagging and escorting tankers.

1988- EARNEST WILL continues. 14 April USS Samuel B Roberts strikes an Iranian Mine. 18 April US Executes op PRAYING MANTIS destroying some Iranian offshore platforms and sinking damn near the entire Iranian Navy. 3 July - USS Vincennes, while passing thru the straight of hormuz was engaged / engaging Iranian gunboats with one of her helicopters reportedly engaged with small arms fire.

IA 655 was mis-Identified by the USS Vincennes as a potential Iranian F14. Vincennes attempted 10 times to contact IA 655. No success. It was squawking as a commercial flight but was reportedly thought to be on a descending profile (not confirmed by examination of the computer data) and approaching attack range.. and was shot down.

Mistakes were made... but surely the crew and ultimately the Captain of the Vincennes was influenced by preceding events.

An civ aircraft taking off from Tehran... outbound... talking to Iranian ATC, with no (None, nada) inbound anything.... Not the same thing.

Not. Even. Close.

You need to post more often.
 
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Guys, this is my day job.
- Soleimani gone really hurts them. Bad dude involved in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. This is akin to knocking Joe Burrow out of Monday's game.
- Their attack on us was symbolic only. It's shows their people they responded.
- Things are already returning to normal. But crazy and unpredictable is normal in CENTCOM.
- The plane didn't crash.




Russia and Iran is a marriage of convenience only. They are united to help Asad and counter our influence in the region. China cares about one person, China.
That’s my perception, as well
 
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It’s an era when saying the worst about your opponents gets you more attention. Trump, especially, does this all the time. But it happens a lot in primaries because candidates are trying to differentiate themselves.

True, but do you really think there are equivalencies here? Really?

Trump's counterattacks are personal. Add any adjectives that you want... off color, un-presidential, etc etc. but personal. And, tied to some personal action, position, trait, whatever. This is different.

We have somone on the national stage (why is he, Democrats?) tweeting in the middle of a us foreign policy / national security incident. Not after the fact... but in the middle of it.

But he does expose his leanings, bias and intellect. Not that it matters to is supporters.
 
@Buzzards Roost I agree with you about the moronic, partisan logic chain re: Trump, but there is only a tenuous similarity with the USS Vincennes shootdown of Iran Air 655 in July of 1988. Way different context.

1987 - Iran v. Iraq still going on. May .. USS Stark hit with a Exocet killing 37 injuring 21 and disabling the vessel. Much commentary and second-guessing of the Captain of that ship for not being more aggressive in defending his vessel. USN ships continue operation EARNEST WILL re: flagging and escorting tankers.

1988- EARNEST WILL continues. 14 April USS Samuel B Roberts strikes an Iranian Mine. 18 April US Executes op PRAYING MANTIS destroying some Iranian offshore platforms and sinking damn near the entire Iranian Navy. 3 July - USS Vincennes, while passing thru the straight of hormuz was engaged / engaging Iranian gunboats with one of her helicopters reportedly engaged with small arms fire.

IA 655 was mis-Identified by the USS Vincennes as a potential Iranian F14. Vincennes attempted 10 times to contact IA 655. No success. It was squawking as a commercial flight but was reportedly thought to be on a descending profile (not confirmed by examination of the computer data) and approaching attack range.. and was shot down.

Mistakes were made... but surely the crew and ultimately the Captain of the Vincennes was influenced by preceding events.

An civ aircraft taking off from Tehran... outbound... talking to Iranian ATC, with no (None, nada) inbound anything.... Not the same thing.

Not. Even. Close.


One has to wonder why Iran didn't ground all civilian traffic in the wake of their attack.
 
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While Iran's conventional Navy is little more than a Coast Guard, they don't need a big navy. None of the GCC countries have one. Their asymmetric force though is capable and can be a pain in the ass.

Don't sleep on Ivan. He plays the game very well. While much of his gear is old, he is modernizing rapidly. I'll remind you our gear is old too.

China's Navy is getting scary strong. However they tend to stick to their own back yard. They lack bases and friends around the world to support the logistics for a global maritime force.

Sadly, despite Trump's bombast, he's done little to recapitalize our forces. He's all talk on that front.

Fly Navy!

Hey Navy!

I think that Trump is understanding the threat that China poses with their advances toward the ultimate high ground, space. I think that he's recognizing the threat.... But that's just my uninformed opinion.

Russia is not a threat to project real power. They are a sh*t show only exceeded by ME culture countries. Their Strategic forces, however are a different story. That's ok. Russions are not a crazy theocratic people... if theocratic it is in the Judeo-Christian tradition and not some other... MAD will work with them.

On a regional level... Trump is goading/pushing europe to take responsibility for their own defense. Poland is a poster child.

Specifics on the recap that you have issue with?
 
One has to wonder why Iran didn't ground all civilian traffic in the wake of their attack.

Not to appear pejorative to you... I don't wonder about that at all. The fact that they didn't I take it as a totally expected level of sh*t show from an islamic government organization . To expect otherwise, IMHO, would be unreasonable. The shootdown was not intentional. It was a mistake... a mistake that killed a whole bunch of Iranians. A Sh*tshow on par with a lot of things in the ME.
 
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True, but do you really think there are equivalencies here? Really?

Trump's counterattacks are personal. Add any adjectives that you want... off color, un-presidential, etc etc. but personal. And, tied to some personal action, position, trait, whatever. This is different.

We have somone on the national stage (why is he, Democrats?) tweeting in the middle of a us foreign policy / national security incident. Not after the fact... but in the middle of it.

But he does expose his leanings, bias and intellect. Not that it matters to is supporters.
I don’t think any of that would matter to Trump. While I don’t like any politician doing this kind of thing, it’s just kind of hard to care anymore.
 
It's headed that way.
He was not part of the security brief today. So has any dem that was briefed come out and disagree with the action? I mean there was the sham vote that means nothing today. But other than that what is being said?

and it sucks Mayor Pete will claim all this and that about national security and then tout his qualification of having spent a few years in the Navy as justification for his thoughts.
 
@Buzzards Roost I agree with you about the moronic, partisan logic chain re: Trump, but there is only a tenuous similarity with the USS Vincennes shootdown of Iran Air 655 in July of 1988. Way different context.

1987 - Iran v. Iraq still going on. May .. USS Stark hit with a Exocet killing 37 injuring 21 and disabling the vessel. Much commentary and second-guessing of the Captain of that ship for not being more aggressive in defending his vessel. USN ships continue operation EARNEST WILL re: flagging and escorting tankers.

1988- EARNEST WILL continues. 14 April USS Samuel B Roberts strikes an Iranian Mine. 18 April US Executes op PRAYING MANTIS destroying some Iranian offshore platforms and sinking damn near the entire Iranian Navy. 3 July - USS Vincennes, while passing thru the straight of hormuz was engaged / engaging Iranian gunboats with one of her helicopters reportedly engaged with small arms fire.

IA 655 was mis-Identified by the USS Vincennes as a potential Iranian F14. Vincennes attempted 10 times to contact IA 655. No success. It was squawking as a commercial flight but was reportedly thought to be on a descending profile (not confirmed by examination of the computer data) and approaching attack range.. and was shot down.

Mistakes were made... but surely the crew and ultimately the Captain of the Vincennes was influenced by preceding events.

An civ aircraft taking off from Tehran... outbound... talking to Iranian ATC, with no (None, nada) inbound anything.... Not the same thing.

Not. Even. Close.
The only similarity is that military personnel likely mistook an airliner for a combatant. No doubt one is more understandable than the other. But both were related to tensions in the area.
 
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I don’t think any of that would matter to Trump. While I don’t like any politician doing this kind of thing, it’s just kind of hard to care anymore.

I can't opine on the "rightness" of what you think. However... You have to care! The reliance on an informed (not brainwashed) electorate are more critical than any time in our history. A opposition political candidate injecting himself int an ongoing national security incident is bullshit. Made even more bullshit because butt-dude is an idiot. IMHO, of course.
 
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There's a lot more here than meets the eye. A lot more. Per my contacts, this flips Iran from working with the Deep State (John Kerry) to working with the Patriots (Trump). The attack on the American Embassy was a CIA Deep State Black Ops play to detract from the coming Declass. Let that sink in. WWG1WGA..

Yes! Jackpot!
 
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The only similarity is that military personnel likely mistook an airliner for a combatant. No doubt one is more understandable than the other. But both were related to tensions in the area.

Yes, that similarity is there. Agree 100%. However the level of tensions, run-up, provocations, etc, are no where near equivalent. Seriously this is a sh*t show that can only be owned by the islamic circus running Iran.
 
Mayor Pete will claim all this and that about national security and then tout his qualification of having spent a few years in the Navy as justification for his thoughts.

WWTVPD? (what would the village people do? )
 
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For those interested, what’s happening now with Russia, Iran, and Turkey getting chummy with each other the last several years is all leading up to the fulfillment of Ezekiel 38-39. Russia will soon lead an invasion into Israel for Israel’s wealth, and they will be joined by Iran and Turkey, among others. No one helps Israel, not even the U.S. God alone wins the battle for Israel. And ultimately that’s what all this stuff in the Middle East that’s been going on for years is about. Israel.

God has already told us what will happen in the not too distant future. John 14:29 says it best as to why He does:

“I have told you these things before they happen so that when they do happen, you will believe.”
 
I can't opine on the "rightness" of what you think. However... You have to care! The reliance on an informed (not brainwashed) electorate are more critical than any time in our history. A opposition political candidate injecting himself int an ongoing national security incident is bullshit. Made even more bullshit because butt-dude is an idiot. IMHO, of course.
Ok, but it’s kind of hard to have much confidence in our citizens at the moment. Seems like people prefer idiocy.
 
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Ok, but it’s kind of hard to have much confidence in our citizens at the moment. Seems like people prefer idiocy.

I agree 100%. We are way past the stupidity that our founding fathers could have imagined. Maybe if we let a few more illegals into this country it would be better
 
While Iran's conventional Navy is little more than a Coast Guard, they don't need a big navy. None of the GCC countries have one. Their asymmetric force though is capable and can be a pain in the ass.

Don't sleep on Ivan. He plays the game very well. While much of his gear is old, he is modernizing rapidly. I'll remind you our gear is old too.

China's Navy is getting scary strong. However they tend to stick to their own back yard. They lack bases and friends around the world to support the logistics for a global maritime force.

Sadly, despite Trump's bombast, he's done little to recapitalize our forces. He's all talk on that front.

Fly Navy!

The RFN is making certain upgrades. But, they will not have a blue water expeditionary navy in our lifetimes. Russia doesn’t have the industrial complex or financial capability right now. They have one functional carrier (built in a Ukrainian shipyard) currently, and it’s a struggle for them to keep it and the two accompanying cruisers battle ready. Building out a carrier strike group and the necessary support assets to be battle ready and not merely a geopolitical symbol is something Russia simply isn’t capable of right now. Financially or otherwise.

They can continue with the upgrades they’re making, but it won’t matter much outside of regionally. Their focus is on upgrading what they have the ability to upgrade - which is really only the coastal defense and strategic deterrence assets necessary to be a green water navy. Nothing that will impact or challenge other major global players with pacific presences - the US and China.
 
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I agree 100%. We are way past the stupidity that our founding fathers could have imagined. Maybe if we let a few more illegals into this country it would be better
It’s not just that. I mean, the feeling right now is completely anti-whatever seems institutional. Almost like the crazier/more uncouth you act, the better.
 
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It’s not just that. I mean, the feeling right now is completely anti-whatever seems institutional. Almost like the crazier/more uncouth you act, the better.

I agree. However all hope is not lost. I had/have two kids. They stand strong against the progressive bullshit narrative.
 
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