What impact do you see rising inflation and rising interest rates having on the economy? What if any impact are you feeling and seeing personally?
OT: What's your view of the US Economy over the next two years?
- Thread starter nashvegastiger
- Start date
Booming until Biden’s final year. Then correction. Then dems will blame the pubs and pubs will blame the dems. Rinse and repeat.
I think the economy will remain strong. Whenever a recession hits- it will be brief. Home prices will pull back slightly, but we are currently exactly where we ahould be per historical growth rates
This group of clowns running the show now in DC don't have the sense to come in out of a shower of sh!t....much less run the country.
Retirement on a fixed income sucks right now. And everyone with half a lick of common sense understands why we're in this sea of shit.
Retirement on a fixed income sucks right now. And everyone with half a lick of common sense understands why we're in this sea of shit.
What color is the sky in your world? There is nothing that is where it should be right now. Focusing on growth rates is missing the forest for the trees. You just can't do that because there are so many other outside indicators that are in decidedly concerning directions. Not the least of the which is our national debt and the fact that as interest rates climb the amount of interest we pay on the debt is going to consume an enormous portion of our budget which is going to limit what we're able to do as a country. It's disastrous.
Fed won't raise rates aggressively unless Biden wins another term. The war has also likely prevented them from raising rates, so I expect inflation to be significant over the next 24 months. Tech companies will continue to eat away at legacy businesses, and that growth will keep us from any severe recession. I don't think we will see a recession.
The pandemic caused all sorts of problems world wide and we are in a post pandemic economy. For example, Computer chip production was disrupted over seas and now GM has to stop truck production for a few weeks because of this. These shortages are happening everywhere. As far as gas prices go it has nothing to do with the Keystone XL pipeline. If this whole predicament was because of any one person it would be an easy fix.
I think the South Carolina coast is immune to a National recession. Baby boomers will continue to retire and move from the Northeast for another decade minimum. Taxes are low, weather is nice, and housing prices are still much less than where they live.
Did you know they produce more chips last year than a year in history? So it isn't a chip shortage in the way you might classify it. There are serious supply chain issues and there was an overwhelming amount of demand beyond what we have the capacity to make.
As far as oil goes part of it is psychology. A lot of it is the expectation of policy. And those two regards one man has dramatically impacted the energy outlooked in this country with his backwards and non-commonsense policies which empower those who are our adversaries and disable those who are our friends. That's just a fact and trying to spend it any other way is ridiculous. You're right that the keystone Pipeline would not be helping us right now but you're wrong in the sense that having so many things skewed against drilling and production of energy in the United States has dramatically changed energy prices. Those are just the facts and ignoring them isn't going to help us solve this problem.
1. National debt isnt much of a concern because over 75% of it is intercompany. There will be a few elimination entries and it’ll be taken care of.
2.Homes have been underpriced for about a decade. Underwriting is strong. As long as people have jobs, the housing sector wont have any issues at all
3. I have an MBA in Finance…thats where my world is.
That explains a lot. I'm afraid that doesn't help a whole lot. Considering what you're saying about housing you have no clue what you're talking about in that area. Housing has been anything but underpriced and right now is just killing people. I see it everyday and have for 25 years because that's what I do for a living as you know. You are certainly smart enough to have an educated opinion but that doesn't mean it's right. When you're the global currency you just can't right away that. Doesn't work that way.
Typical totally out of touch leftist.
Highest inflation in 40 years.
Supply chain is FUBAR, worst housing shortage ever and home building continues to lag millions behind demand.
Average home price is beyond the means of a huge percentage of the middle class.
Rent has risen 22% last year and continues up combining with high food and gas prices to crush the lower class.
Massive shortage of skilled labor in nearly every industry.
Huge shortage of doctors and nurses and my health insurance premiums quadrupled from 2010 to 2020 with deductibles tripling. Thanks Obamacare!
Manufacturing and wholesale inflation last year was historic 27% and continues.
Shortages of all kinds of goods and services with empty shelves at grocery stores prevalent. Crime has skyrocketed to twenty year highs or more in most of the big Democrat controlled cities.
Hundreds of thousands of homeless in California.
Fed chairman said this week they expect inflation will continue unabated for at least two more years and they will raise interest rates every qtr until it stops, drying up the supply of cheap money and stagnating economic growth and increasing credit card interest rates, making it even harder on the lower and middle classes. You really should do more than watch TV to get your information, you have no clue how much worse things are for most Americans.
Far right: end of the world
Far left: everything is fine-nothing to see here
The truth is in between. As far as a recession I don’t think it happens anytime soon. I form my own opinion over time and time spent in business.
Twitter and message boards are a cancer. There are so many people on this board who are borderline nuts.
The Great Depression is not on the horizon.
Far left: everything is fine-nothing to see here
The truth is in between. As far as a recession I don’t think it happens anytime soon. I form my own opinion over time and time spent in business.
Twitter and message boards are a cancer. There are so many people on this board who are borderline nuts.
The Great Depression is not on the horizon.
I want you to explain how you think #1 is going to take place. If it were that easy, we would have been doing it long before now.
From someone who doesn't agree with you often, this is all spot on.
Inflation is bad right now, no doubt about it. But, it's not the end of the world and a recession is not a given at this point in time. I think we will continue to see a mix of good and bad indicators and fits and spurts for the foreseeable future until we are able to slowly(key word) work our way out of this post-pandemic slog. It's just going to take time, but there is a lot of good out there right now to offset the bad.
It’s largely intercompany debt, and you clearly dont know what that means.
And the Great Recession threw of the historical upswing. Look at the charts and youll see that we are exactly where we would have been if not for the GR.
We’re already vertically integrated, so no issue there.
You remove transactions from one entity to another within the group.
Accountants all over the world do it every single day or once a month.
Ive a technical accounting background, so Im probably teaching you something youve never even heard of.
Think of it like this: The FBI owes homeland security $100. Homeland security owes the CIA $100. The CIA owes the FBI $100.
The parent company (The US Gov) would show $300 in debt/liabilities.
To keep the parent company from reporting $300 in liabs, you book something called elimination entries. Every company with subsidiaries does it.
It will be a HUGE undertaking that would likely take a few years. Lots of agencies pay and receive services, materials, and futures contracts. I bet they would end up just writing a lot off
Understood. But that isnt what we are talking about. If you think that you obviously haven't looked at the books. Knowing you it's hard for me to fathom that you actually believe that....
The concept of how expenses are allocated within an entity (in this case the govt) is not rocket science, nor is the fact that some of those are revolving charges between agencies that could be "canceled out" with alternate expenditure and revenue allocations, or accounting tricks, if you will. The actual accounting, or how you make the ledger entries work may be complicated, but the concept is pretty elementary. If Dick owes Jane $50 and Jane owes Dick $20, how much does Dick really owe Jane is, at best, a middle school math problem.
The problem with your argument is that you are massively overestimating the percentage of our budget and our debt that falls in those expenditure areas.
We spent $5T recently in govt spending. The vast majority of that, as well as most of our spending is NOT between govt agencies. You can't just write that stuff off. Defense spending and entitlement programs are the majority of our budget every year. That $$$ is not allocated/spent between other govt agencies. It's allocated to citizens and businesses.
This is exactly right. The overwhelming majority of our dad is military spending, spending on social security, spending on Medicare and Medicaid, an interest on the national debt. Departmental spending by the government is about 1.4 trillion dollars a year. Intercompany debt at that level would be a rounding your compared to what we're dealing with in other areas. We have a massive structural deficit that is only going to get worse as we see rates increase and the number of retirees increases. The government has raided social security surpluses for decades and left us with a total mess and a huge unfunded liability. I can't fathom how you don't realize that @Superica28. Which makes me pretty sure that you do but you're just trying to be clever tonight.
Yes it is. Again, 75ish% is intercompany. Look it up with whatever publication youd like.
It's not 75%. Government spends over $250 billion on payroll. Who knows what they spend on benefits and retirement beyond that. Then you have leases on buildings that they work in government vehicles replacement costs and everything else along those lines. Even if I ascribe to what you're saying it might be half which would be about $600 billion dollars a year. That's not fixing the deficit and it's not going to help us with the debt. All it'll do is slow down how fast the debt goes up.
You don’t understand this at all. The initial transaction is for the Fed to buy securities. Think of it as them literally printing money. To your point about surpluses and raiding social security, monetary policy fosters (as it relates to an entity with unlimited funds such as the US Gov and the trust of the entire world to make all payments when due with no reservations) unhinged spending.
Its why social security will never be at risk.
The short version is that we would move to 4 or 5% overnight rates to keep some semblance of balance and manage inflation.
The resulting cheaper bonds? Now, thats what your argument would be centered around if you knew what you were talking about. Its whats you’re saying without actually knowing it.
The “bet” if you will, is that the money supply would correct itself as the baby boomers passed away and more folks had self funded retirement income.
Now, lets say college remains prohibitively expensive. Skilled labor @CUT93 (as he mentioned) doesnt meet demand. At that point, your structural deficit matters a TON and we start taking on debt just to pay debt. Like greece.
It's not that I don't understand. It's that I disagree. Do feel free to insult my intelligence though if it makes you feel better. We'll see because the Greece argument you made is something I believe is much closer than we realize. In this case, I truly hope you are right.
Sorry if you felt insulted. I mistakenly thought you were a broker for some reason. Its always good to have healthy debates with other finance/econ/accounting dudes! Cheers
If any bet made is based on more and more people having self funded retirement, we are in trouble. Every year more and more people are paying no taxes. A large portion of this group relies on govt subsidies to live. Unless there are fundamental changes in our societal philosophy of ever expanding dependence on the govt for support, programs such as SS and all other govt subsidy programs, said programs are going to be under increasing pressure to expand, not the opposite. Also, It's not like when all the boomers die that segment of the population is gone. It may comprise a slightly smaller percentage of the population, but it will still be there.
Agree
Good God Almighty.
Agree and laughing at some of the responses from folks who say we are fine and where we should be.
Good God Almighty.
Someone just explained the math. They cannot raise interest rates like Volker did in the 80s. We were overall a lender nation now we are a debtor nation. I dont know...whats 1% interest on $32trillion? BTW, the fed did not stop pumping. Check their balance sheet. The US reports $30trillion in debt. Unfunded liabilities are approximately $120trillion. Thats 150trillion.
China is our biggest lender. Why has China been dumping treasuries and buying gold in its place since 2008? Well, because qe1, qe2 and now qe-infinity showed the Chinese that we will NEVER pay our debts we will always print the currency and credit thereby making their treasuries pennies on the current value. They are also tired of seeing the US weaponize the dollar. Overall our only current exports are inflation and arrogance.
I don't know if I agree on the exports. While the rest of the world is also experiencing significant growth in its tech sector, the vast majority of tech is used around the world is made in the US. Just take a look at this list.
The Complete List Of Unicorn Companies
A unicorn is a private company or startup with a valuation over $1 billion. Check out our updated list of every unicorn company around the globe, their top investors, and more.
www.cbinsights.com
Uhhm...I'm not talking about our trade imbalance. That is a totally different set of books.I don't know if I agree on the exports. While the rest of the world is also experiencing significant growth in its tech sector, the vast majority of tech is used around the world is made in the US. Just take a look at this list.
The Complete List Of Unicorn Companies
A unicorn is a private company or startup with a valuation over $1 billion. Check out our updated list of every unicorn company around the globe, their top investors, and more.www.cbinsights.com
