Over the last couple of nights I've been watching Louisville games and y'all know I'm a nerd so I figured I'd share some of my notes/thoughts to try and paint a picture of what I'm expecting to see and a little bit of what I'm hoping to see. Don't worry, there won't be a million YouTube clips...until next Tuesday morning.
After starting 2-3, Louisville is riding a four game win streak in which they’ve outscored opponents 140-58. For those of you who don't math, that's an average final score of 35-14.5. They’re the hottest team in the ACC right now because of three factors:
1. Malik Cunningham is not turning the ball over...
Now for what I believe to be keys to the game. Some numbers to remember - 3, 26, 150, and 55:
3: Clemson has allowed 18 sacks thus far. I'd argue upwards of a third of that total falls on the QBs, but when DJ was playing well he probably avoided that many more. Pass protection has been fairly good but Louisville is very exotic at times. They'll bring pressure from all three levels. They have three excellent LBs, all super twitchy, and run a mostly odd-front structure which further allows them to disguise. With DJ's recent inability to read defenses pre- or post-snap I’m very concerned about identifying and navigating pressure. Regardless of who takes the snap, keeping their jersey clean is priority number one. I'm cherry-picking here but the Tigers are 8-0 when allowing three or fewer sacks.
26: Against ND, Shipley had 17total touches for 80 yards (4.7/tch). Stark contrast to the previous games (FSU & Syracuse) where he totaled 58 for 358 yards (6.17/tch). This guy has to be the focal point of the offense. Mafah should see his touches increase as well. Shipley has surpassed 100 yards rushing three times vs FBS opponents, each time he had 20+ carries - 20/104 vs Wake, 20/121 vs FSU, 27/172 vs Syracuse. He averaged 26.3 total touches in those games.
150: Louisville’s entire offense is predicated on stretch zone schemes. FSU killed us with it. We have to do a better job on the DL of shooting gaps and anchoring to minimize cutback lanes. The LBs have struggled in run fits all year so this will be a major challenge for them. Frankly Simpson, Trotter, and Carter need to have their best game as a unit because if Evans gets going and they start getting those PA boot plays working it's going to be a quiet car ride home. This is sort of an ambiguous figure, but if we can hold them to ~150 rushing yards and thus force Cunningham to sustain drives by passing, it’s going to be hard for them to win in Death Valley.
55: Piggybacking off @Larry_Williams video review, DJ has to be involved as a runner. Letting him get hit and be apart of the ground game was a major factor in his stretch of high-level execution. In the five game sample of LA Tech, Wake, NC State, BC, and FSU he averaged 12.6 carries for 56.4 yards and scored three of his four rushing TDs. Kyle Richardson has already acknowledge that he needs to be more involved (17 carries over the last two games) outside of just the RPO game. If he goes over 55 yards with his legs, I'll feel a lot better about our chances to win.
After starting 2-3, Louisville is riding a four game win streak in which they’ve outscored opponents 140-58. For those of you who don't math, that's an average final score of 35-14.5. They’re the hottest team in the ACC right now because of three factors:
1. Malik Cunningham is not turning the ball over...
One pick in his last five games. Interestingly he hasn't been a huge factor as a runner outside of the RZ in his past four starts, 48 rushes for 146 yards (3ypc), but inside the redzone he's the preferred ball carrier with five TDs.
2. RB Tiyon Evans is back from injury...I really like the way this cat runs the ball. 232 yards and 2 TDs on just 21 carries in two games since returning.
3. Their defense is playing unconscious...24 takeaways (14 int, 10 fum) is tops in the nation, 34 sacks is tied for the FBS lead, and 67 TFL is tied for 11th. They're fifth in RZ defense allowing TDs at a 45% clip (15/33), and they rank 20th in scoring defense at 19.4ppg.
Now for what I believe to be keys to the game. Some numbers to remember - 3, 26, 150, and 55:
3: Clemson has allowed 18 sacks thus far. I'd argue upwards of a third of that total falls on the QBs, but when DJ was playing well he probably avoided that many more. Pass protection has been fairly good but Louisville is very exotic at times. They'll bring pressure from all three levels. They have three excellent LBs, all super twitchy, and run a mostly odd-front structure which further allows them to disguise. With DJ's recent inability to read defenses pre- or post-snap I’m very concerned about identifying and navigating pressure. Regardless of who takes the snap, keeping their jersey clean is priority number one. I'm cherry-picking here but the Tigers are 8-0 when allowing three or fewer sacks.
26: Against ND, Shipley had 17total touches for 80 yards (4.7/tch). Stark contrast to the previous games (FSU & Syracuse) where he totaled 58 for 358 yards (6.17/tch). This guy has to be the focal point of the offense. Mafah should see his touches increase as well. Shipley has surpassed 100 yards rushing three times vs FBS opponents, each time he had 20+ carries - 20/104 vs Wake, 20/121 vs FSU, 27/172 vs Syracuse. He averaged 26.3 total touches in those games.
150: Louisville’s entire offense is predicated on stretch zone schemes. FSU killed us with it. We have to do a better job on the DL of shooting gaps and anchoring to minimize cutback lanes. The LBs have struggled in run fits all year so this will be a major challenge for them. Frankly Simpson, Trotter, and Carter need to have their best game as a unit because if Evans gets going and they start getting those PA boot plays working it's going to be a quiet car ride home. This is sort of an ambiguous figure, but if we can hold them to ~150 rushing yards and thus force Cunningham to sustain drives by passing, it’s going to be hard for them to win in Death Valley.
55: Piggybacking off @Larry_Williams video review, DJ has to be involved as a runner. Letting him get hit and be apart of the ground game was a major factor in his stretch of high-level execution. In the five game sample of LA Tech, Wake, NC State, BC, and FSU he averaged 12.6 carries for 56.4 yards and scored three of his four rushing TDs. Kyle Richardson has already acknowledge that he needs to be more involved (17 carries over the last two games) outside of just the RPO game. If he goes over 55 yards with his legs, I'll feel a lot better about our chances to win.
