So who do you guys think wins the Senate race?

[ForzaTigre]

I lean Republican with the senate but I’m not sure I’d put money on it.

I may very well be wrong but I can see Biden winning the election and the Senate staying red.

Thoughts?

 

[Goodthinkful]

Is this a joke about Biden thinking he’s running for Senate?

 

[DaBadass]

 

[CFlowers8511]

I want this race to return

 

[Clem'sSon]

"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

H. L. Mencken

 

[ForzaTigre]

Is this a joke about Biden thinking he’s running for Senate?

Biden winning the election but the Senate staying Pub is what I meant.

 

[The Orange Wave]

I lean Republican with the senate but I’m not sure I’d put money on it.

I may very well be wrong but I can see Biden winning the election and the Senate staying red.

Thoughts?

Betting odds put a democratic sweep as the most likely outcome right now, but we are still along way out. It’s tough to figure out how the current climate plays out in the next few months in that which base gets stirred the most and puts up the most votes. As a moderate I would rather the republicans keep the senate than win the White House

 

[CLEMSON96JDH]

I don’t know but I would certainly vote for Lindsey circa 2016 over Lindsey circa 2020.

 

[DaBadass]

I don’t know but I would certainly vote for Lindsey circa 2016 over Lindsey circa 2020.

You don’t like his ladybugs?

 

[Goodthinkful]

Biden winning the election but the Senate staying Pub is what I meant.

OK. In order for the Senate to stay republican, the Republicans would have to win a lot of senate races... not the senate race.

 

[iceheart08]

Senate stays in R hands, house stays in D hands, Biden wins the presidency.

Senate is gonna be real close. Iowa and Kansas might be close, Maine is gonna be real close, Arizona too. NC I think stays R, and we handily take out Gardner in colorado.

This is what I do for a living. So come at me!

 

[yoshi121374]

This is everything that you need to know about Lindsey Graham

 

[ForzaTigre]

Senate stays in R hands, house stays in D hands, Biden wins the presidency.

Senate is gonna be real close. Iowa and Kansas might be close, Maine is gonna be real close, Arizona too. NC I think stays R, and we handily take out Gardner in colorado.

This is what I do for a living. So come at me!

Polling and elections is your profession?

 

[CUTiger1977]

 

[iceheart08]

Polling and elections is your profession?

Yes. Been in politics for over a decade. Are you new here?

Edit: I run campaigns, I'm not a pollster. That's a highly specialized field. I just pay those folks lot of money .

 

[Esso13]

Long ways until the election depends mainly on how the virus effects the economy going into September and October .

 

[CUTiger1977]

​

 

[DaBadass]

​

That is probably true because there are a lot of retarded, hills have eyes people in Oklahoma. But do you honestly believe anything these people say? Biggest crowd ever at the inauguration, right?

 

[poates6]

Senate stays in R hands, house stays in D hands, Biden wins the presidency.

Senate is gonna be real close. Iowa and Kansas might be close, Maine is gonna be real close, Arizona too. NC I think stays R, and we handily take out Gardner in colorado.

This is what I do for a living. So come at me!

I think everything will stay as it is. Trump will win, probably by a wide margin. The senate will stay republican and the house democrats.
Somehow Pelosi will keep a job.

I know you do this for a living but you had Clinton beating trump in a landslide.

 

[broncosrb26]

I think everything will stay as it is. Trump will win, probably by a wide margin. The senate will stay republican and the house democrats.
Somehow Pelosi will keep a job.

I know you do this for a living but you had Clinton beating trump in a landslide.

She did win by almost 3 million votes.

 

[poates6]

She did win by almost 3 million votes.

Congrats! Biden will win by a few less I’m sure. I’ll
Go ahead and give him a win by 2 million! Can we sign on the dotted line??!

 

[CU Alumnus]

She did win by almost 3 million votes.

But she isn't in the White House.......

 

[CUTiger1977]

That is probably true because there are a lot of retarded, hills have eyes people in Oklahoma. But do you honestly believe anything these people say? Biggest crowd ever at the inauguration, right?

 

[DaBadass]

View embedded media

That’s what is known as deflection. It has nothing to do with my comment. This may surprise you, but I actually agree with that headline. It is total hypocrisy.

 

[FLaw47]

I think everything will stay as it is. Trump will win, probably by a wide margin. The senate will stay republican and the house democrats.
Somehow Pelosi will keep a job.

I know you do this for a living but you had Clinton beating trump in a landslide.

See, I think this statement clearly shows that you don't have a good grasp of the political situation in the United States. There is almost no way the House will stay Democratic if Trump wins re-election - it's too gerrymandered for that. How many districts do you honestly think will split Trump/Democratic House member?

 

[CUTiger1977]

That’s what is known as deflection. It has nothing to do with my comment. This may surprise you, but I actually agree with that headline. It is total hypocrisy.

It also defines your comment "That is probably true because there are a lot of retarded, hills have eyes people in Oklahoma."It is total hypocrisy not supported by any evidence.

Last Rally:

 

[DaBadass]

It also defines your comment "That is probably true because there are a lot of retarded, hills have eyes people in Oklahoma."It is total hypocrisy not supported by any evidence.

Last Rally:

View embedded media

The guy just said that’s 20,000 people. You can find 20,000 people to go to a Nickelback concert. What’s your point exactly?

 

[CU Alumnus]

See, I think this statement clearly shows that you don't have a good grasp of the political situation in the United States. There is almost no way the House will stay Democratic if Trump wins re-election - it's too gerrymandered for that. How many districts do you honestly think will split Trump/Democratic House member?

What I'm seeing is that a lot of democrats are all over the map on Biden. Some like him, some don't, some think he's mentally ill.......

......of course a lot of republicans feel the same way on Trump but I don't think it will balance out.

I think a lot of states still give all of their electoral votes to the winner in the state, so several districts in California may go red but not enough to swing the state (for instance). Then the winner of the state (presumably Biden) still gets all of the electoral votes.

 

[FLaw47]

What I'm seeing is that a lot of democrats are all over the map on Biden. Some like him, some don't, some think he's mentally ill.......

......of course a lot of republicans feel the same way on Trump but I don't think it will balance out.

I think a lot of states still give all of their electoral votes to the winner in the state, so several districts in California may go red but not enough to swing the state (for instance). Then the winner of the state (presumably Biden) still gets all of the electoral votes.

How does that work out to Democrats retaining the House and Trump retaining the White House?

 

[CU Alumnus]

How does that work out to Democrats retaining the House and Trump retaining the White House?

Picture the same thing in a swing state - Ohio, Virginia, etc. This assumes they all still give all of their electoral votes to the winner of the state popular vote. I haven't kept up with the changes. I know Colorado gives all of theirs to the national popular vote winner now, which I find hilarious BTW.

SC will go red and likely keep Graham, but has districts that will be blue. I grew up in one (Orangeburg).

I'm not going to math it all out but it is mathmatically possible, and realistic. I could see Orangeburg (example) going for Trump and also keeping Clyburn in the House. I'm not a fan of some of Clyburn's politics but if you are a constituent, he will do everything he can to help you with issues.

 

[FLaw47]

Here's some wing state polling aggregated by 538 today. It doesn't look good for Donald Trump's re-election, at all. That being said, things can change.

Arizona: Biden +4
Michigan: Biden + 13
Florida: Biden + 10
Nationwide: Biden + 8

Source

 

[FLaw47]

Picture the same thing in a swing state - Ohio, Virginia, etc. This assumes they all still give all of their electoral votes to the winner of the state popular vote.

SC will go red, but has districts that will be blue. I grew up in one (Orangeburg).

I'm not going to math it all out but it is mathmatically possible, and realistic. I could see Orangeburg (example) going for Trump and also keeping Clyburn in the House. I'm not a fan of some of Clyburn's politics but if you are a constituent, he will do everything he can to help you with issues.

It's mathematically possible but flatly not realistic. Clinton won the popular vote by 2 points and barely lost in the Electoral College. Dem's won like +8 overall in 2018 and barely took the House. 2016 the Republicans easily held the house with a Democratic popular vote victory for the Presidency. I just don't think there's any chance (non astronomical) of Dem's retaining the House if Trump wins.

Also, all states except for Nebraska and Maine allocate all of their electoral votes to the overall winner.

 

[CU Alumnus]

It's mathematically possible but flatly not realistic. Clinton won the popular vote by 2 points and barely lost in the Electoral College. Dem's won like +8 overall in 2018 and barely took the House. 2016 the Republicans easily held the house with a Democratic popular vote victory for the Presidency. I just don't think there's any chance (non astronomical) of Dem's retaining the House if Trump wins.

Also, all states except for Nebraska and Maine allocate all of their electoral votes to the overall winner.

Realistically - you may be right.

As to the electoral votes comment - it's the winner in their state, correct? Not the overall national popular vote winner?

Colorado is among 15 that will give their votes to the NATIONAL popular vote winner, not the winner in their STATE (though Colorado has decided to suspend it). Which could make things interesting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

That said - I also did not realize that it will only go into effect once it could secure 270 electoral votes.

 

[FLaw47]

Realistically - you may be right.

As to the electoral votes comment - it's the winner in their state, correct? Not the overall national popular vote winner?

Colorado is among 15 that will give their votes to the NATIONAL popular vote winner, not the winner in their STATE (though Colorado has decided to suspend it). Which could make things interesting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

That said - I also did not realize that it will only go into effect once it could secure 270 electoral votes.

Correct, it's the winner of their state. Colorado hasn't decided to suspend anything (that I'm aware of), the Interstate Compact, like you said, simply doesn't come into play until there are enough states as part of it.

 

[poates6]

See, I think this statement clearly shows that you don't have a good grasp of the political situation in the United States. There is almost no way the House will stay Democratic if Trump wins re-election - it's too gerrymandered for that. How many districts do you honestly think will split Trump/Democratic House member?

I see your point, but it’s the Democrats that gerrymander. They draw the lines to get the results they want. They get the mail in ballots to get the results they want. The electoral college is why trump will win. He will probably lose the popular vote again because of 6 cities in the us. The electoral college won’t elect the house though.

edit to say:

trump is good for the White House. There are some Democrats running though that I like that would be good for the house. I believe there are plenty of people that can vote president one way and senate/house another way because we know we don’t want any of these whack job parties having too much power. When they have too much power that’s when we the people get screwed with our pants on.

 

[FLaw47]

I see your point, but it’s the Democrats that gerrymander. They draw the lines to get the results they want. They get the mail in ballots to get the results they want. The electoral college is why trump will win. He will probably lose the popular vote again because of 6 cities in the us. The electoral college won’t elect the house though.

edit to say:

trump is good for the White House. There are some Democrats running though that I like that would be good for the house. I believe there are plenty of people that can vote president one way and senate/house another way because we know we don’t want any of these whack job parties having too much power. When they have too much power that’s when we the people get screwed with our pants on.

Both sides have Gerrymandered, it's true, but (currently) the map is heavily tilted towards Republicans. They won overwhelmingly in 2010 and got to redraw the maps (Project Redmap). You can see a recent Supreme Court case on this where they acknowledged that it's all bullshit but "the legislatures could fix it if they wanted to" (hint, they don't want to - they got elected with these maps). Current gerrymandering. I'll clarify that this is now explicitly legal; it just also runs completely afoul of the ideals of a functioning democracy (or republic if you want to be super pedantic).

Mail in ballots have nothing to do with gerrymandering. I'd also be interested to see if you have any evidence you can cite that show Democratic tampering with mail in ballots. All I know is that a GOP operative was caught finagling absentee ballots in NC in the 2018 primaries.

There are some people who would split ticket vote but they're a minority, I assure you. And there are more people who hate Trump (55% disapprove) than generally vote Democrat so I find it extremely hard to believe that there'd be enough to vote for him and a Democratic representative.

 

[poates6]

Both sides have Gerrymandered, it's true, but (currently) the map is heavily tilted towards Republicans. They won overwhelmingly in 2010 and got to redraw the maps (Project Redmap). You can see a recent Supreme Court case on this where they acknowledged that it's all bullshit but "the legislatures could fix it if they wanted to" (hint, they don't want to - they got elected with these maps). Current gerrymandering. I'll clarify that this is now explicitly legal; it just also runs completely afoul of the ideals of a functioning democracy (or republic if you want to be super pedantic).

Mail in ballots have nothing to do with gerrymandering. I'd also be interested to see if you have any evidence you can cite that show Democratic tampering with mail in ballots. All I know is that a GOP operative was caught finagling absentee ballots in NC in the 2018 primaries.

There are some people who would split ticket vote but they're a minority, I assure you. And there are more people who hate Trump (55% disapprove) than generally vote Democrat so I find it extremely hard to believe that there'd be enough to vote for him and a Democratic representative.

You’ve got it figured out then. Congrats!

 

[CU Alumnus]

Both sides have Gerrymandered, it's true, but (currently) the map is heavily tilted towards Republicans. They won overwhelmingly in 2010 and got to redraw the maps (Project Redmap). You can see a recent Supreme Court case on this where they acknowledged that it's all bullshit but "the legislatures could fix it if they wanted to" (hint, they don't want to - they got elected with these maps). Current gerrymandering. I'll clarify that this is now explicitly legal; it just also runs completely afoul of the ideals of a functioning democracy (or republic if you want to be super pedantic).

Mail in ballots have nothing to do with gerrymandering. I'd also be interested to see if you have any evidence you can cite that show Democratic tampering with mail in ballots. All I know is that a GOP operative was caught finagling absentee ballots in NC in the 2018 primaries.

There are some people who would split ticket vote but they're a minority, I assure you. And there are more people who hate Trump (55% disapprove) than generally vote Democrat so I find it extremely hard to believe that there'd be enough to vote for him and a Democratic representative.

Personally I find the entire mechanics of voting hilarious. Here is how it went in my district in the primary:

Take paper ballot
Put ballot in machine
Vote on machine
Take out paper ballot
Put ballot into ANOTHER machine

Only the government could come up with something that freaking stupid. Especially since printed documents are a weak point in a lot of security systems.

I don't understand how, in 2020, we cannot vote on our phones or something. Security has certainly come far enough to make this possible.

 

[PawsFan_]

I don't understand how, in 2020, we cannot vote on our phones or something. Security has certainly come far enough to make this possible.

Really? And you think voting by phone can't be undermined? I've got a dozen robo calls a day that say otherwise. So what's to prevent a husband voting for his wife by the phone?

What's the problem with people getting off their butts, presenting an ID, and voting? Perish the thought one has to stand in line to actually vote in person.

 

[hopefultiger13]

That is probably true because there are a lot of retarded, hills have eyes people in Oklahoma. But do you honestly believe anything these people say? Biggest crowd ever at the inauguration, right?

Hey man... you can't argue with "alternative" facts.