For those of you freaking out about the TI Clemson projection for 2015, I thought I'd do one similarly for FSU.
OFFENSE
2013 and 2014 saw two of the best years in Florida State's illustrious history, with the Seminoles winning 29 straight games before imploding against Oregon in the first ever College Football Playoff game. Despite that loss, plenty of optimism abounds in Tallahassee for 2015 based on the return of the coaching staff, elite recruiting, and the presence of All-American-type talent on offense, defense, and special teams.
At quarterback, the Seminoles return virtually no experience. All-world and Heisman Trophy-winning QB Jameis Winston is no more as he seeks to find the same level of experience in the NFL. Heir apparent to the starting job Jacob Coker is now in Tuscaloosa. Former 4* recruit De'Andre Johnson has left school after video tape emerged of him striking a girl in the bar over the summer. Fortunately, Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson arrived in school over the summer and has now been named the Week 1 starter. To refresh, Golson is a South Carolina native not heavily pursued by Clemson who originally enrolled at Notre Dame. After starting in 2012 (12 TDs and 6 INTs passing), he sat out the 2013 season due to academic suspension. He returned in 2014 (29 TDs and 14 INTs), eventually losing his starting job. While Golson is a national name, he QBd the Irish to losses to Florida State, Louisville, Arizona State, Northwestern, and Southern Cal before leaving school after the end of last season. Sean Maguire (1-0 in one career start thanks to Clemson ineptitude) remains the backup. Despite Seminole fans' optimism, the most important position on the field appears to be a significant downgrade over 2013 and 2014.
At running back, the Seminoles' feature one of the best running backs in the country in Dalvin Cook. Behind Cook, however, the remaining running backs on the roster have a total of 42 career carries for a whopping 208 yards. The health and ability of Cook to stay out of trouble this season probably means the difference between ACC title contention and a low-to-mid tier bowl. Cook appears to be the most valuable player on the Seminole roster as we enter week 1 of the regular season. Again, this appears to be a position that is severely downgraded from the 2013 and 2014 squads.
At tight end, the team faces yet another void as all-time program great Nick O'Leary takes nearly 1600 receiving yards and 17 TDs over 4 years to the NFL. At the tight end position, redshirt freshman Ryan Izzo takes over the starting job with completely unproven talent backing him up. The Seminoles go from a dependable four year starter in O'Leary to a trio of guys who have a collective one career catch for 7 yards. Perhaps more than any other position on the roster, the tight end position promises a massive drop-up in talent from 2011-2014 to 2015.
In case you thought the returning experience at running back, quarterback, and tight end was worrisome, have no fear yet. The returning experience at those positions is actually far superior to the offensive line. The 'Noles lost four starting offensive lineman to the NFL off of the 2014 squad with three of those offensive lineman each starting 42 consecutive games during their FSU career. The entire starting offensive line from 2014 is gone, although returning LT did start some games last year and performed well. The other four starters in 2015 make this one of the most inexperienced fronts in the country and this from a team that by all accounts underachieved on the OL in 2014. Offensive line is probably the chief worry as the Seminoles enter the 2015 campaign. It is a unit that will probably not be significantly tested until mid-October against Louisville.
At wide receiver, there are some bright spots. FSU has recruited very well and does return experience at this position with Jesus Wilson and Travis Rudolph both currently listed as starters. 5 star freshman George Campbell remains on the third team but should see more playing time as the season progresses. The Seminoles appear to be talented in terms of star ratings at the position but do not appear to possess the dominant receiving threat that can take over a game. It remains to be seen if Campbell can become that presence...and quickly.
All in all, the Seminole offense faces a bewildering number of questions with a massive drop in returning starts and actual game experience. This is partially balanced by one of the nation's best RBs and a seasoned, if not spectacular QB. Expect the offense to struggle against strong defenses while putting up big numbers against weaker teams. Seminole fans worry that this could be a return to the pre-Jameis FSU teams, where FSU struggled to run the ball against better defensive lines and no game-breaking wideout limited passing success.
DEFENSE
If you thought attrition on offense was a bit stunning, maybe you should take a seat as we look at the defense. Similar to offense, FSU returns one of the best in the country at his position in CB Jalen Ramsey. Unfortunately, that is offset by relative inexperience in the front 7. More worrisome may be the apparent lack of a dominant game-changer on the defensive line, something that FSU did feature in 2013 and 2014 with the emergence of Eddie Goldman and Mario Edwards Jr. Into their shoes steps DeMarcus Walker, Derrick Nnadi, and Nile Lawrence-Stample. The Seminoles are deep along the interior line however, like much of the offense, it remains to be seen if anyone emerges to be a clear force that offenses must game-plan around.
At lineback, FSU starts two seniors in Reggie Northup and Terrance Smith but the Seminoles are desperately thin at this position. Former 5-star Matthew Thomas is no longer with the team after a tumultuous tenure in Tallahassee. FSU went through spring practice without either of its starting LBs due to to injury and can ill afford to lose either starters this year.
FSU may not be Cornerback U but they have produced a long series of elite players at this position dating back to the early 1980's. Led by the afore-mentioned Ramsey, FSU does return depth and experience at this position and it appears to be the strength of the unit as we enter 2015.
All in all, Florida State loses a significant amount of experience and talent (including four players to the NFL draft) from a defense that barely managed to finish in the top half of the country last year. The 2014 FSU defense was 50th in scoring D, 60th in passing D, and a whopping 106th in third-down conversion rate. Given those stats, virtually all observers expect the Seminoles to take a step back on defense in 2015, although fans hold out hope that overall statistics may improve. Still, given the relative inexperience and loss in leadership from an average defense in 2014, it is difficult to expect much better than average from the unit in 2015.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This is one is a bit easier to project - FSU returns not only the best kicker in the country but arguably one of the best kickers of all-time in Roberto Aguayo. Aguayo could be the rare kicker selected in early-to-mid rounds of the NFL draft should he decide to leave after this year but, while in Tallahassee, he remains a nearly sure thing when takes the field.
SCHEDULE
FSU opens with a relatively easy slate of games against Texas State, USF, BC, and Wake Forest and should cruise to a 4-0 opening. Then begins a six-game stretch against Miami, Louisville, @GT, Syracuse, @Clemson, and North Carolina State, a stretch where the Seminoles will likely see a loss with potentially as many as three. They close with a layup against UT-Chattanooga before the season in finale in The Swamp against UF. While too early to call that game, Florida does figure to be improved assuming they will not be facing complete offensive ineptitude in Gainesville for a fifth consecutive season. All in all, this looks like a 9-3 regular season that could swing anywhere from 8-4 to 9-2. Expect a 6-2 ACC record which will probably prevent the Seminoles from winning a four consecutive division title. Seminoles fans collectively point to 2016 however that team will be rebuilding at CB, K, LB, and QB.
There. Does that make you feel better as a Clemson fan?
OFFENSE
2013 and 2014 saw two of the best years in Florida State's illustrious history, with the Seminoles winning 29 straight games before imploding against Oregon in the first ever College Football Playoff game. Despite that loss, plenty of optimism abounds in Tallahassee for 2015 based on the return of the coaching staff, elite recruiting, and the presence of All-American-type talent on offense, defense, and special teams.
At quarterback, the Seminoles return virtually no experience. All-world and Heisman Trophy-winning QB Jameis Winston is no more as he seeks to find the same level of experience in the NFL. Heir apparent to the starting job Jacob Coker is now in Tuscaloosa. Former 4* recruit De'Andre Johnson has left school after video tape emerged of him striking a girl in the bar over the summer. Fortunately, Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson arrived in school over the summer and has now been named the Week 1 starter. To refresh, Golson is a South Carolina native not heavily pursued by Clemson who originally enrolled at Notre Dame. After starting in 2012 (12 TDs and 6 INTs passing), he sat out the 2013 season due to academic suspension. He returned in 2014 (29 TDs and 14 INTs), eventually losing his starting job. While Golson is a national name, he QBd the Irish to losses to Florida State, Louisville, Arizona State, Northwestern, and Southern Cal before leaving school after the end of last season. Sean Maguire (1-0 in one career start thanks to Clemson ineptitude) remains the backup. Despite Seminole fans' optimism, the most important position on the field appears to be a significant downgrade over 2013 and 2014.
At running back, the Seminoles' feature one of the best running backs in the country in Dalvin Cook. Behind Cook, however, the remaining running backs on the roster have a total of 42 career carries for a whopping 208 yards. The health and ability of Cook to stay out of trouble this season probably means the difference between ACC title contention and a low-to-mid tier bowl. Cook appears to be the most valuable player on the Seminole roster as we enter week 1 of the regular season. Again, this appears to be a position that is severely downgraded from the 2013 and 2014 squads.
At tight end, the team faces yet another void as all-time program great Nick O'Leary takes nearly 1600 receiving yards and 17 TDs over 4 years to the NFL. At the tight end position, redshirt freshman Ryan Izzo takes over the starting job with completely unproven talent backing him up. The Seminoles go from a dependable four year starter in O'Leary to a trio of guys who have a collective one career catch for 7 yards. Perhaps more than any other position on the roster, the tight end position promises a massive drop-up in talent from 2011-2014 to 2015.
In case you thought the returning experience at running back, quarterback, and tight end was worrisome, have no fear yet. The returning experience at those positions is actually far superior to the offensive line. The 'Noles lost four starting offensive lineman to the NFL off of the 2014 squad with three of those offensive lineman each starting 42 consecutive games during their FSU career. The entire starting offensive line from 2014 is gone, although returning LT did start some games last year and performed well. The other four starters in 2015 make this one of the most inexperienced fronts in the country and this from a team that by all accounts underachieved on the OL in 2014. Offensive line is probably the chief worry as the Seminoles enter the 2015 campaign. It is a unit that will probably not be significantly tested until mid-October against Louisville.
At wide receiver, there are some bright spots. FSU has recruited very well and does return experience at this position with Jesus Wilson and Travis Rudolph both currently listed as starters. 5 star freshman George Campbell remains on the third team but should see more playing time as the season progresses. The Seminoles appear to be talented in terms of star ratings at the position but do not appear to possess the dominant receiving threat that can take over a game. It remains to be seen if Campbell can become that presence...and quickly.
All in all, the Seminole offense faces a bewildering number of questions with a massive drop in returning starts and actual game experience. This is partially balanced by one of the nation's best RBs and a seasoned, if not spectacular QB. Expect the offense to struggle against strong defenses while putting up big numbers against weaker teams. Seminole fans worry that this could be a return to the pre-Jameis FSU teams, where FSU struggled to run the ball against better defensive lines and no game-breaking wideout limited passing success.
DEFENSE
If you thought attrition on offense was a bit stunning, maybe you should take a seat as we look at the defense. Similar to offense, FSU returns one of the best in the country at his position in CB Jalen Ramsey. Unfortunately, that is offset by relative inexperience in the front 7. More worrisome may be the apparent lack of a dominant game-changer on the defensive line, something that FSU did feature in 2013 and 2014 with the emergence of Eddie Goldman and Mario Edwards Jr. Into their shoes steps DeMarcus Walker, Derrick Nnadi, and Nile Lawrence-Stample. The Seminoles are deep along the interior line however, like much of the offense, it remains to be seen if anyone emerges to be a clear force that offenses must game-plan around.
At lineback, FSU starts two seniors in Reggie Northup and Terrance Smith but the Seminoles are desperately thin at this position. Former 5-star Matthew Thomas is no longer with the team after a tumultuous tenure in Tallahassee. FSU went through spring practice without either of its starting LBs due to to injury and can ill afford to lose either starters this year.
FSU may not be Cornerback U but they have produced a long series of elite players at this position dating back to the early 1980's. Led by the afore-mentioned Ramsey, FSU does return depth and experience at this position and it appears to be the strength of the unit as we enter 2015.
All in all, Florida State loses a significant amount of experience and talent (including four players to the NFL draft) from a defense that barely managed to finish in the top half of the country last year. The 2014 FSU defense was 50th in scoring D, 60th in passing D, and a whopping 106th in third-down conversion rate. Given those stats, virtually all observers expect the Seminoles to take a step back on defense in 2015, although fans hold out hope that overall statistics may improve. Still, given the relative inexperience and loss in leadership from an average defense in 2014, it is difficult to expect much better than average from the unit in 2015.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This is one is a bit easier to project - FSU returns not only the best kicker in the country but arguably one of the best kickers of all-time in Roberto Aguayo. Aguayo could be the rare kicker selected in early-to-mid rounds of the NFL draft should he decide to leave after this year but, while in Tallahassee, he remains a nearly sure thing when takes the field.
SCHEDULE
FSU opens with a relatively easy slate of games against Texas State, USF, BC, and Wake Forest and should cruise to a 4-0 opening. Then begins a six-game stretch against Miami, Louisville, @GT, Syracuse, @Clemson, and North Carolina State, a stretch where the Seminoles will likely see a loss with potentially as many as three. They close with a layup against UT-Chattanooga before the season in finale in The Swamp against UF. While too early to call that game, Florida does figure to be improved assuming they will not be facing complete offensive ineptitude in Gainesville for a fifth consecutive season. All in all, this looks like a 9-3 regular season that could swing anywhere from 8-4 to 9-2. Expect a 6-2 ACC record which will probably prevent the Seminoles from winning a four consecutive division title. Seminoles fans collectively point to 2016 however that team will be rebuilding at CB, K, LB, and QB.
There. Does that make you feel better as a Clemson fan?
