Someone help me out with the freak out over the steel/aluminum deal?

[MBRO]

The bluster that the media decries is all about setting a negotiating position. It is always better to negotiate from a position of strength. Has anyone noticed that North Korea is now talking about giving up their nuclear weapons? When threatened by Kim, Trump said "I have a button too & mine is bigger". What would their response have been if he had said "Oh please Sir don't use those big bad weapons on us"?

NK talked about giving up their nuclear program with Bush and Obama as well. We see how that worked out.

Hopefully, this administration learns from the mistakes of past ones.

 

[rogue booster]

What does that even mean, to "improve" the trade deficit? That's not how economics is measured by anyone who understands what's going on.

Improve meant close the gap. What’s the industry standard metric?

 

[jimbob1019]

Right. So if it’s only going to indirectly impact exports it should improve the trade deficit?

The global economy needs America to consume. We have the leverage, not the communists.

This.

Trump gets it. At the end of the day, everyone needs America more than America needs them....

 

[steele-tiger]

Improve meant close the gap. What’s the industry standard metric?

The point is the strength of an economy is not measured in the size of a trade deficit or trade surplus.

 

[JAMCRACKER99]

When 40 jobs depend on buying a core material at a price that makes the products they produce and sell competitive, and 1 job depends on manufacturing that core material, you tell me who wins and loses the most jobs when the price of that material goes up? It's basic economics that a 5th grader should be able to comprehend. That's why Gary Cohn, Trump's Chief Economic advisor, just resigned.

Add in the fact that other goods we export, not just the ones with steel and aluminum, will receive retaliatory tariffs from other countries and the impacts are massive comparitaviely. The US represents about 5% of the world's population. That means 95% of the world's customers are going to pay more for many American goods than they were before. Food exports, vehicles, technology, etc. How is that good for American businesses who export and how is that good for their workers? There is this thing called supply and demand. When price goes up, demand falls. When demand falls, workers lose jobs and our economy slows.

And I haven't even talked about the fact that this tax effectively is passed on to every American in the price increases you will see on the goods you purchase.

The sad part is that the above is just a fraction of the reason in the most basic terms that this is insanity. It's not rocket science. This is all about Trump appealing to a base that doesn't understand even the most basic economics.

This fifth grader needs no further explanation. No wonder many in both parties are up in arms over this. Now if we could just get the coal industry back to the good old days ...

 

[rogue booster]

The point is the strength of an economy is not measured in the size of a trade deficit or trade surplus.

So the trade deficit is not a material issue, just focus on gdp?

 

[Rychek4]

Improve meant close the gap. What’s the industry standard metric?

The problem is that the trade deficit is way to general a metric to tell you much. It doesn't consider things like labor flows, investment rates, savings rates, relative growth rates, inflation, relative currency value, products vs. services, etc. I don't know that you want one, single standard metric unless you are trying to get headlines. The only way to really appreciate relative strengths is to consider a large number of variables.

 

[CU1TruTiger4Life]

If you look into the auto industry, Ford and GM will,each be looking at a billion dollar a year materials price increase. How do you think that increase passes along? I will tell you that the tire industry buys zero US steel, because no one in the US makes the product. That is a 100 million dollar material increase and the product still comes from out the country. It would be great to have US sourced product, but the US typically is from recycled ore and is not of the quality of mined ore.

The thing is that steel is not on a tariff if it is in a manufactured product so vehicles, and tires and other products coming into the country with steel in them now have built in materials cost advantage over US product. Multinational companies have an incentive to produce outside the US and ship in to save tariff cost. There were tariffs set for truck tires from China last year but Trump had them killed. So for Chinese tires, they get no tariff at all even while selling product below material cost because they have Chinese government assistance and now on top, the US made products have to pay 20% more in materials cost than the Chinese. Lose - lose for US production

As soon as the proposal of tariffs were announced, suppliers immedidialy started to raise the prices of materials. Aluminum companies have already raised there prices 10% even before the announcement to match the tariff priced product.

All and all, the cost of a ton of products go up immediately and that is passed on to the consumer. Mean time, the tariff is a nice little tax for the government to have.

All of this and on time, the other countries are pissed you are putting stress on their products and start a trade war. US products get tariffs going into their countries and other industries suffer.

When 40 jobs depend on buying a core material at a price that makes the products they produce and sell competitive, and 1 job depends on manufacturing that core material, you tell me who wins and loses the most jobs when the price of that material goes up? It's basic economics that a 5th grader should be able to comprehend. That's why Gary Cohn, Trump's Chief Economic advisor, just resigned.

Add in the fact that other goods we export, not just the ones with steel and aluminum, will receive retaliatory tariffs from other countries and the impacts are massive comparitaviely. The US represents about 5% of the world's population. That means 95% of the world's customers are going to pay more for many American goods than they were before. Food exports, vehicles, technology, etc. How is that good for American businesses who export and how is that good for their workers? There is this thing called supply and demand. When price goes up, demand falls. When demand falls, workers lose jobs and our economy slows.

And I haven't even talked about the fact that this tax effectively is passed on to every American in the price increases you will see on the goods you purchase.

The sad part is that the above is just a fraction of the reason in the most basic terms that this is insanity. It's not rocket science. This is all about Trump appealing to a base that doesn't understand even the most basic economics.

What would you say to Nucor CEO’s take?
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/03/...are-treating-countries-how-they-treat-us.html

 

[ajpbnd]

Trump stated he was going to put America first and stop letting other countries, especially China be the beneficiary of these outrageous trade deals.

He may be just flexing his businessman muscle here and using this as a bigger play somewhere else. I, for one, hope he goes through with it.

The statistics I've seen show China producing less than 2 percent of the steel we import ... it seems to be more of a ploy to force a renegotiation of NAFTA.

 

[CU1TruTiger4Life]

The statistics I've seen show China producing less than 2 percent of the steel we import ... it seems to be more of a ploy to force a renegotiation of NAFTA.

I’ve read that too. But also, in the video above i just posted the CEO of Nucor says China is hiding behind other countries. I think Donald is positioning frankly, but who knows.

 

[SconnyTiger25]

If you look into the auto industry, Ford and GM will,each be looking at a billion dollar a year materials price increase. How do you think that increase passes along? I will tell you that the tire industry buys zero US steel, because no one in the US makes the product. That is a 100 million dollar material increase and the product still comes from out the country. It would be great to have US sourced product, but the US typically is from recycled ore and is not of the quality of mined ore.

The thing is that steel is not on a tariff if it is in a manufactured product so vehicles, and tires and other products coming into the country with steel in them now have built in materials cost advantage over US product. Multinational companies have an incentive to produce outside the US and ship in to save tariff cost. There were tariffs set for truck tires from China last year but Trump had them killed. So for Chinese tires, they get no tariff at all even while selling product below material cost because they have Chinese government assistance and now on top, the US made products have to pay 20% more in materials cost than the Chinese. Lose - lose for US production

As soon as the proposal of tariffs were announced, suppliers immedidialy started to raise the prices of materials. Aluminum companies have already raised there prices 10% even before the announcement to match the tariff priced product.

All and all, the cost of a ton of products go up immediately and that is passed on to the consumer. Mean time, the tariff is a nice little tax for the government to have.

All of this and on time, the other countries are pissed you are putting stress on their products and start a trade war. US products get tariffs going into their countries and other industries suffer.

The only way for this country to stabilize is to become good and more efficient at doing industrial type jobs and gain back some of the work ethic that our the pre baby boomer/baby boomer generation instilled due to the depression.

Children today, yes many on this board, are entitled and not hard working, prefer to be behind the safe confines of a computer instead of out there getting their hands dirty and being sociable.

So no, eliminated free trade will not do this country any good other than making it harder for what little manufacturing we have now to sell products to countries like China which has the largest consumer population in the world now.

Trump may know how to build buildings, but he has proven to suck at economics over the years and any sort of protectionist view will be met with global problems beyond his control, and unlike his LLCs (building projects) that have sucked and he bankrupted, he has to ensure this is plan than will not affect our economy years down the line. Ross Perrot would have been a far better choice to fix our economy than Trump. But I am sure glad Hillary did not get elected... I just keep reminding myself... and all these "Me Too" people are all by design by the Hillary democrats building walls around the 3%. End rant... thank you for listening.

 

[TigerGrowls]

I believe China is the 11th ranked importer of steel into the US. The majority of the top 10 are allied countries, with Canada #1.

State Department arguments aside, the two main objections are the employment and fiscal impact to the American public (workers in metal-consuming industries outnumber steel/alum workers by 40:1) and the looming trade war which will cause American goods to be taxed higher (and thus priced higher) abroad.

China uses trans-shipping to hock its steel meaning they send it to another country where it then gets sold/shipped into the US. A number of these countries do not even have a steel production capacity. Trump stated that China is producing nearly 50%% of the worlds steel currently. I agree with Trump that US steel and aluminum industries have to be protected. The US cannot have to depend on foreign countries for our steel....its a national security issue. On top of that...none of these countries have played fair for years and years. The US has been bent over on these trade deals and President Trump is aiming to correct the problem to an extent that is feasible for all parties. None of these foreign nations are going to volunteer to play fair.

 

[btank1994]

Political-Economics rule #1:

Presidents do not fix economies.

 

[MBRO]

I’ve read that too. But also, in the video above i just posted the CEO of Nucor says China is hiding behind other countries. I think Donald is positioning frankly, but who knows.

China is the worlds largest steel exporter, but as I mentioned they are only the 11th largest source country for US imports. Part of the reason for that is because in 2016, the Obama administration hit China with a ton of special duties and Chinese steel imports dropped by 2/3. The steel tariffs don’t really bother them because, as one Chinese steel exec says, “It doesn't affect us that much because we don't export to U.S., anyway."

Aluminum is a slightly different matter. China produces about 1/2 of all the aluminum in the world, and they are our fourth largest supplier (behind Canada, Russia, and the UAE).

 

[The Orange Wave]

So the trade deficit is not a material issue, just focus on gdp?

I think that is what most economist would say from a broad point of view. If you look at the trade deficit it tends to go more negative when GDP is expanding and shrinks when GDP is contracting. Go back and look at a chart of the trade deficit during recessions and expansions.

The reason for this is we are a consumer based economy and some time over the last few decades we decided that we wanted to consume more goods at a cheaper price. So countries that had a comparative advantage produced our consumer goods like clothing, electronics, etc. at a lower price. We were fine with that because we our standard of living increased, but it came at the expense of jobs in the manufacturing/low wage sector. Even though our economy continued to grow many of these workers were displaced as they did not have the skills necessary to obtain jobs in the "new" economy. In order for us to consume all these cheap goods someone had to finance us as the savings rate in the US is very low, so when we pay in USD to all these manufacturing countries they in turn take those dollars and invest in our debt, thus financing our consumerism. They need us and we need them.

 

[gooddogjudge]

In speaking with a customer of mine who is a heavy user of steel. They have already been told predicted forecasts from US based steel mills are approximately 50% cost increase on raw materials.

Steel supplier just told me that steel was at an all time high in December and has only come down slightly

 

[CU Alumnus]

Basically, Trump’s wife said I’m not going to have sex with you and so the Don is saying well I’m not going to have sex with you more. Nobody wins at that game. Instead we should all be having sex, but Trump apparently doesn’t want Americans to have sex.

Actually, apparently Trump is having sex with a porn star (or did). Though she's not even in Melania's league on hotness.

The media has everyone thinking that Trump is stupid. This is his “game” this is what he does. I personaly think that he knows exactly what he’s doing and I trust him in these matters. Our low life pathetic politicians have Royally screwed this country (for personal gain) when making all of these trade deals and I am thrilled to death that Trump is doing something about it.

This tarriff kind of came out of nowhere, didn't it? Didn't he just kinda throw it out there last week with little warning?

I do wonder if it is part of a long game. One thing Trump is good at is making money.

I don't blindly trust Trump but I am going to wait and see what else is coming down the pike.

I mean what the hell else are we gonna do?

 

[JSpears5]

I’ve read that too. But also, in the video above i just posted the CEO of Nucor says China is hiding behind other countries. I think Donald is positioning frankly, but who knows.

Can not look at the video right now, but in the case of China, they are well well down the list but they are a good villain to point at. In the end, if you want to tariff, tariff products and not materials. Materials make it extremely hard for local production.

This a not much different that a bank or auto bail out in the end result for a struggling industry on the back of other industries and the consumer. I would prefer the government to just cut them a check because it would not effect so many other industries

 

[CU Alumnus]

Political-Economics rule #1:

Presidents do not fix economies.

As a core philosophy I think George W Bush had the right idea:

Get the government the hell out of the way and let the economy work.

I hope Trump understands that.

 

[MBRO]

China uses trans-shipping to hock its steel meaning they send it to another country where it then gets sold/shipped into the US. A number of these countries do not even have a steel production capacity. Trump stated that China is producing nearly 50%% of the worlds steel currently. I agree with Trump that US steel and aluminum industries have to be protected. The US cannot have to depend on foreign countries for our steel....its a national security issue. On top of that...none of these countries have played fair for years and years. The US has been bent over on these trade deals and President Trump is aiming to correct the problem to an extent that is feasible for all parties. None of these foreign nations are going to volunteer to play fair.

Trans-shipping is a concern, particularly with South Korea, and needs to be addressed. I believe there are regulations on the books to prevent that, and they are not being enforced.

Regarding National Security, my understanding is that the DoD needs only 3% of total US Steel/aluminum production.

 

[JSpears5]

Actually, apparently Trump is having sex with a porn star (or did). Though she's not even in Melania's league on hotness.



This tarriff kind of came out of nowhere, didn't it? Didn't he just kinda throw it out there last week with little warning?

I do wonder if it is part of a long game. One thing Trump is good at is making money.

I don't blindly trust Trump but I am going to wait and see what else is coming down the pike.

I mean what the hell else are we gonna do?

They have been talking about these tariffs for 6 months or a year, and it is not the first steel tariff. The difference is that in the past, certain products were cut out because of availability and certain countries because of trade deals. This one was much more broad

 

[The Orange Wave]

Actually, apparently Trump is having sex with a porn star (or did). Though she's not even in Melania's league on hotness.



This tarriff kind of came out of nowhere, didn't it? Didn't he just kinda throw it out there last week with little warning?

I do wonder if it is part of a long game. One thing Trump is good at is making money.

I don't blindly trust Trump but I am going to wait and see what else is coming down the pike.

I mean what the hell else are we gonna do?

He did not warn his advisers on the timing of the announcement, but the Section 232 investigation had been going on since last year. Ross made several recommendations in February and Trump had until early April to decide on what if any action he was going to take. So, it was assumed that something would happen. But a broad based tariff was not the expected outcome.

 

[bcs summa]

Why do you think Trump is doing anything different? His company has made money hand over fist since being elected at a rate that should make life long politicians blush.
I really don't understand the good will confidence he inspires in people. It baffles me. I could point to all his failures, but him winning the election, a popularity contest, somehow washes him of any faults. Outside of that people just say at least its not Hillary.

Trump has moved from being the #500 something richest person in the world to the #700 and is $400 million poorer than when elected. Where have you seen he is making money hand over fist lately?

 

[JSpears5]

As a core philosophy I think George W Bush had the right idea:

Get the government the hell out of the way and let the economy work.

I hope Trump understands that.

There have been numerous trade situations since trump took office. In the auto sector, every single one went in a direction to help Chinese manufacturing and hurt US manufacturering. To be clear, this is good for steel, very bad for all manufacturers that use it. Long term, it is better to have a healthy US steel industry but this is forcing the industry to pay off failing of that industry. But steel country got trump elected, so...

 

[CU1TruTiger4Life]

Actually, apparently Trump is having sex with a porn star (or did). Though she's not even in Melania's league on hotness.



This tarriff kind of came out of nowhere, didn't it? Didn't he just kinda throw it out there last week with little warning?

I do wonder if it is part of a long game. One thing Trump is good at is making money.

I don't blindly trust Trump but I am going to wait and see what else is coming down the pike.

I mean what the hell else are we gonna do?

Eh. Kind of. But he talked about unfair trade and illegal dumping of steel during the election.

 

[ClemsonGuy99]

I'm still interested in how importing steel and aluminum is a threat is our national security. Seems like a stretch to me.

I believe Trump also threatened foreign automakers like VW, BMW and Mercedes again with higher taxes on imports. Not sure how that would effect BMW's business in Greenville but I believe all three of those companies employ quite a few people in the US.

Maybe this is all grandstanding by him to bring attention to a problem but I don't think so given his top economic advisor just resigned over this issue. I can't see that happening if he didn't think Trump was serious.

I just don't think high tariffs on steel is the answer. I'm sure what remains of the steel workers in western PA are thrilled but to be honest the steel industry in Pittsburgh died in the 1970s and 80s and it's not coming back because of a high tariff. Most of the mills have either been demolished or are abandoned. In truth, there are technically no steel mills in Pittsburgh anymore. Plus the United Steelworkers union can be a nightmare to deal with. Quite frankly, I don't care where the steel comes from that rebuilds our bridges as long as they get rebuilt during my lifetime. I'm curious if Donald knows where the steel he used to build his towers came from.

 

[CU Alumnus]

There have been numerous trade situations since trump took office. In the auto sector, every single one went in a direction to help Chinese manufacturing and hurt US manufacturering. To be clear, this is good for steel, very bad for all manufacturers that use it. Long term, it is better to have a healthy US steel industry but this is forcing the industry to pay off failing of that industry. But steel country got trump elected, so...

I get that this is bad for US Automakers - unless it is part of something else he has planned.

But I would not characterize this tariff as "getting the hell out of the way and letting the economy work" either. Much the opposite. I would view it as the opposite of free trade and conservative economic principals.

Honestly it's something I would expect from the democrats. But everyone knew Trump was a roll of the dice. Problem was Hillary was a guaranteed snake eyes.

Assuming I have my craps analogies right.

 

[CU Alumnus]

I'm still interested in how importing steel and aluminum is a threat is our national security. Seems like a stretch to me.

The theory is that in a major war, our trade partners may decide not to sell us the steel or aluminum. It harms our self-sufficiency. But then again the last batch of M4s came from FN and the Beretta (Italy) handgun is being replaced with a Sig (Germany). All are technically built in the US but owned by foreign companies.

I think it is a stretch but not having ANY steel-producing capability is a bad thing from a national security perspective.

 

[IMBlessed]

This.

Trump gets it. At the end of the day, everyone needs America more than America needs them....

Jimbob, Not True; China is filling many countries needs, Russia; Natural Gas & weapons, Continent of Africa, many natural resources. Also, Putin is putting a wedge between the US & Our Allies!

 

[MBRO]

I'm still interested in how importing steel and aluminum is a threat is our national security. Seems like a stretch to me.

I believe Trump also threatened foreign automakers like VW, BMW and Mercedes again with higher taxes on imports. Not sure how that would effect BMW's business in Greenville but I believe all three of those companies employ quite a few people in the US.

Maybe this is all grandstanding by him to bring attention to a problem but I don't think so given his top economic advisor just resigned over this issue. I can't see that happening if he didn't think Trump was serious.

I just don't think high tariffs on steel is the answer. I'm sure what remains of the steel workers in western PA are thrilled but to be honest the steel industry in Pittsburgh died in the 1970s and 80s and it's not coming back because of a high tariff. Most of the mills have either been demolished or are abandoned. In truth, there are technically no steel mills in Pittsburgh anymore. Plus the United Steelworkers union can be a nightmare to deal with. Quite frankly, I don't care where the steel comes from that rebuilds our bridges as long as they get rebuilt during my lifetime. I'm curious if Donald knows where the steel he used to build his towers came from.

Here's the memo with the DoD's recommendation to the Secretary of Commerce:

https://www.commerce.gov/sites/comm...steel_and_aluminum_policy_recommendations.pdf

The argument is that while we have more than enough capacity to fund military and national defense requirements, unfair trade practices could erode our manufacturing capabilities.

The memo goes on to make some other recommendations, such as steel tariffs being targeted rather than broadly applied (one reason is so that our allies will work with us to fight Chinese transshipment) and not imposing steel and aluminum tariffs simultaneously.

 

[Rychek4]

But I would not characterize this tariff as "getting the hell out of the way and letting the economy work" either. Much the opposite.

I would view it as the opposite of free trade and conservative economic principals.

I'll agree with that. This would not be described as the Goldwater approach lol. But what does conservative even mean anymore. The GOP has used and abused the moniker for so long.

 

[CU Alumnus]

Jimbob, Not True; China is filling many countries needs, Russia; Natural Gas & weapons, Continent of Africa, many natural resources. Also, Putin is putting a wedge between the US & Our Allies!

They do a lot of trade with Australia too.

 

[CU Alumnus]

The GOP has used and abused the moniker for so long.

100% correct.

 

[tigertwo62]

A tariff is a tax, and higher taxes are not the answer. Reagan said if one person shoots a hole in the boat I’m not going to respond by shooting another hole in the boat. I’m slightly paraphrasing, but the point is don’t exacerbate the problem. The EU’s proposal could amount to $3.52 billion in retaliatory tariffs. And with some historical perspective, the last time the US imposed steel tariffs it actually ended up being a negative for US steel producers.

Basically, Trump’s wife said I’m not going to have sex with you and so the Don is saying well I’m not going to have sex with you more. Nobody wins at that game. Instead we should all be having sex, but Trump apparently doesn’t want Americans to have sex.

The members on here are not only good football coaches, but they are excellent US Presidents as well.

 

[clemsonu96]

Can not look at the video right now, but in the case of China, they are well well down the list but they are a good villain to point at. In the end, if you want to tariff, tariff products and not materials. Materials make it extremely hard for local production.

This a not much different that a bank or auto bail out in the end result for a struggling industry on the back of other industries and the consumer. I would prefer the government to just cut them a check because it would not effect so many other industries

So, who the hell is telling the truth? Half the people say China should be ranked much higher due to all the trans-shipping going on and the other half are saying they are ranked 11th. I agree with your last paragraph because it’s seems to be a very logical argument, but I wish we could know who to trust with these figures. The trans-shipping issue seems to be legitimate. To the guy that mentioned the Obama administration imposed special duties on China that resulted in a 2/3 decline of their steel exports to the US, can we assume that the 2/3 figure was supplemented by increased amounts that were trans-shipped. Can’t stand when you don’t know what to believe because everyone either has a political angle or a monetary gain to be made. No doubt, someone is going to get hurt and someone is going to win in these deals. I just wish we could trust the info that details what deal leaves the US better off as a whole.

In the long run I tend to agree that there’s a long play here. I haven’t heard a good argument in this thread that speaks to the imbalance of tariffs between the US and the rest of the world. How are we to deal with that? Or are we just expected to pay more because we are the US?

 

[rogue booster]

I'm still interested in how importing steel and aluminum is a threat is our national security. Seems like a stretch to me.
.[/QUOT

If you checked out the reuters link on the first page there are issues with falsified specs. As I stated, I'm sure that's an isolated incident though and all other producers are above board.

 

[pharout73]

I was "the people" saying steel will increase by 50%, how can I help. I also said "predicted" forecasts, since you apparently have difficulty with reading comprehension. My prediction comes from a purchasing agent that works for a steel fabrication company. He has been in the metals industry his whole career and never seen hot roll steel raw materials approach $1.00/lb before. Current prices are at $.47/lb, predicted prices are to exceed $1.00, so I guess I was wrong, over 50%.

So a 25% tariff gives you a 100% increase in price...hmmm. Maybe his supplier wants to get rich and blame someone else.

Greed is Good....

 

[rogue booster]

This a not much different that a bank or auto bail out in the end result for a struggling industry on the back of other industries and the consumer. I would prefer the government to just cut them a check because it would not effect so many other industries

OUT

 

[ClemsonGuy99]

The theory is that in a major war, our trade partners may decide not to sell us the steel or aluminum. It harms our self-sufficiency. But then again the last batch of M4s came from FN and the Beretta (Italy) handgun is being replaced with a Sig (Germany). All are technically built in the US but owned by foreign companies.

I think it is a stretch but not having ANY steel-producing capability is a bad thing from a national security perspective.

Yeah, I get it in a war situation but I don't think we are at war with the EU. I just think there has to be a better way. Why aren't companies utilizing American steel? My only guess is that is cost a great deal more than imported steel. Why does US Steel cost so much to produce? Maybe that is the question some should be asking or trying to resolve. In its hay day it was likely cheaper in part because Carnegie basically employed a slave labor force (that literally went to war against him) and thus his overhead was low. He was also an innovator and his product was simply better. Now, fast forward to today and you have a steel workers union that has driven up labor costs and I'm guessing foreign competition that provides equally or even better quality steel. If you are a business man, why would you pay more for the same product that you can get for a much better price from somewhere else? Just because it was made in the USA?

Maybe that is simplistic as I am by no means an expert on the current steel market but I just don't see how high tariffs are going to solve the problem, long term, without creating other problems for other companies and other people.

 

[Rychek4]

So, who the hell is telling the truth?

Truth is, I don't think it matters. Any talk about a trade war with China that isn't centered on rare-earth elements is probably not honest.