Back with another look at the weekly SP+ model ratings after a wild week in CFB. How does Bama not fall further? I'll let Bill Connelly himself explain it: "
What happens when you produce a 56% success rate to your opponent's 43%, average 8.8 yards per play to their 5.6, gain 20-plus yards on 11% of your snaps (your opponent: 5%), score touchdowns on every red zone trip and still lose as a 22.5-point favorite? If you're Alabama, falling to Vanderbilt via turnovers luck and Diego Pavia's sheer panache, a couple of things happen: First, you disrupt bachelorette parties throughout downtown Nashville when students tear down the goalposts and march them more than two miles, down Broadway and into the Cumberland River. Second, your SP+ rating doesn't really change."
I'm not sure what game Connelly's model was watching, but that isn't a fair assessment of that game. Vandy didn't get lucky, they flat out beat them. Don't talk to me about efficiency numbers when Bama held the ball for less than 18 minutes. In the second half, Bama held the ball for just over the length of one Bluey episode.
At any rate, this week we've only got Texas and OSU in the top tier by themselves. Bama, UGA and Ole Miss (all one loss teams, by the way) make up the second tier. The third tier is Penn State, Oregon, Tennessee and Miami. Clemson's ranking moved up to 17.7 this week from 16.6 last week and 15.0 in week 4. Heading in the right direction. Our offense stayed flat at #17 while the defense has moved up the rankings to #23 from #28 in wk5 and #36 in wk4. We jumped up to #12 overall this week, up a spot from last week after Mizzou fell after their beatdown loss.
I also highlighted the handful of other ACC teams in the top 50...FSU dropped out of the top 50 (shocking, i know). We've got Louisville, Pitt, VT and SC left to play, all in the top 50.
Looking at conference rankings, the ACC is still sitting at #3 behind the Big 2 but our average rating has been moving up
1. SEC: 17.2 average rating (36.2 offense, 19.1 defense)
2. Big Ten: 10.7 average rating (29.0 offense, 18.3 defense)
3. ACC: 8.4 average rating (31.6 offense, 23.3 defense)
4. Big 12: 7.9 average rating (32.2 offense, 24.4 defense)
5. Sun Belt: -6.4 average rating (26.0 offense, 32.4 defense)
6. AAC: -7.7 average rating (24.5 offense, 32.2 defense)
7. MWC: -8.7 average rating (24.0 offense, 32.6 defense)
8. MAC: -14.4 average rating (17.2 offense, 31.5 defense)
9. CUSA: -15.1 average rating (19.4 offense, 34.3 defense)
