Stocks and the Election

[Clemsonu90]

I‘m expecting a lot of movement in the markets tomorrow and I’m expecting to see some good “deals” over the next few days/weeks.

What have you done leading up to the election? Sold funds/ETFs? Bought shorts? Moved heavily into bonds/gold? Etc?

 

[Jonada]

 

[Tiger1031]

Nothing.

 

[clemsonkelly]

Bought a lot of $tuesq and sold it

 

[treetiger]

When Biden gets elected tomorrow, this starts a massive Wall Street tumble, if not tomorrow, in the next few days. Many retirement investments will evaporate. I suggest they invest in gold. Wall Street will realize that Trump's tax cuts are going to be cancelled, and tax increases are on the immediate horizon. This country economically is not going to survive the expense of the 'Green New Deal, no stopping illegal immigration, free healthcare, education, and other benefits for illegal aliens (by the way us legals don't get these benefits).

Also expect very high gas prices in the coming months and years because of the policies, from whoever pushes Biden aside in the next few months. In four years under Biden, I hope those who ran their mouth about Trump on TI, and voted for a Socialist/Communist/Marxist when they realize how terrible this shell of nation is with BLM and ANTIFA running things. I imagine those who elect Biden tomorrow will somehow go into anonymity.

 

[okclem]

When Biden gets elected tomorrow, this starts a massive Wall Street tumble, if not tomorrow, in the next few days. Many retirement investments will evaporate. I suggest they invest in gold. Wall Street will realize that Trump's tax cuts are going to be cancelled, and tax increases are on the immediate horizon. This country economically is not going to survive the expense of the 'Green New Deal, no stopping illegal immigration, free healthcare, education, and other benefits for illegal aliens (by the way us legals don't get these benefits).

Also expect very high gas prices in the coming months and years because of the policies, from whoever pushes Biden aside in the next few months. In four years under Biden, I hope those who ran their mouth about Trump on TI, and voted for a Socialist/Communist/Marxist when they realize how terrible this shell of nation is with BLM and ANTIFA running things. I imagine those who elect Biden tomorrow will somehow go into anonymity.

It's gonna be sweet.

 

[BionicTiger]

Historically, elections have minimal impacts on markets. That isn’t to say this one won’t be different. There is always that possibility. And, the immediate responses of the market will be different depending on the outcome. That doesn’t necessarily make for a massive swing or some major event that will live on on charts for decades to come. Markets like divided control, generally speaking. A Trump win, a red senate, and blue house is probably best case scenario for the immediate future/reaction of the markets. But, a divided congress and a Biden presidency won’t mean doom for the markets either even if the immediate reaction is negative.

 

[BionicTiger]

I’ll also add the markets are providing their thoughts on the outcome of the election today.

 

[jakefest]

Historically, elections have minimal impacts on markets. That isn’t to say this one won’t be different. There is always that possibility. And, the immediate responses of the market will be different depending on the outcome. That doesn’t necessarily make for a massive swing or some major event that will live on on charts for decades to come. Markets like divided control, generally speaking. A Trump win, a red senate, and blue house is probably best case scenario for the immediate future/reaction of the markets. But, a divided congress and a Biden presidency won’t mean doom for the markets either even if the immediate reaction is negative.

The election itself might move some derivatives markets like futures, FX futures, etc as I see lots of hedge strategies on currency taking place tomorrow ahead of the election. In 2016, FX futures claimed the highest volume ever on the CME the night of the election as many moved currency around and then hedged on futures. I expect more of that tomorrow.

Also, if there is no clear cut winner come Wednesday then I expect equities to see some dips but short term in nature, the challenge will be how quickly the retail market will stop selling off to limit negative momentum trading.

Outside of longer term stuff, I'm in cash right now. Will wait and see what happens before I come back in.

If any of the VIX related ETF's have dropped back down, then those are good trade in and trade out same day stocks. Don't hold overnight though as they carry high overnight risk. This is where I wish TVIX was still on the market as it's an amazing volatility trade.

 

[iceheart08]

When Biden gets elected tomorrow, this starts a massive Wall Street tumble, if not tomorrow, in the next few days. Many retirement investments will evaporate. I suggest they invest in gold. Wall Street will realize that Trump's tax cuts are going to be cancelled, and tax increases are on the immediate horizon. This country economically is not going to survive the expense of the 'Green New Deal, no stopping illegal immigration, free healthcare, education, and other benefits for illegal aliens (by the way us legals don't get these benefits).

Also expect very high gas prices in the coming months and years because of the policies, from whoever pushes Biden aside in the next few months. In four years under Biden, I hope those who ran their mouth about Trump on TI, and voted for a Socialist/Communist/Marxist when they realize how terrible this shell of nation is with BLM and ANTIFA running things. I imagine those who elect Biden tomorrow will somehow go into anonymity.

oh yea, how much will the green new deal cost?

and what "benefits" do you think "illegal aliens" get that "we" dont?

 

[dbjork6317]

Historically, elections have minimal impacts on markets. That isn’t to say this one won’t be different. There is always that possibility. And, the immediate responses of the market will be different depending on the outcome. That doesn’t necessarily make for a massive swing or some major event that will live on on charts for decades to come. Markets like divided control, generally speaking. A Trump win, a red senate, and blue house is probably best case scenario for the immediate future/reaction of the markets. But, a divided congress and a Biden presidency won’t mean doom for the markets either even if the immediate reaction is negative.

I would think a “blue wave” would cause a spike in the markets since it would almost certainly mean a big stimulus is coming right?

 

[BionicTiger]

I would think a “blue wave” would cause a spike in the markets since it would almost certainly mean a big stimulus is coming right?

Stimulus is going to happen regardless.

Edit to add: meaning it’s already baked in, to a certain extent.

 

[CoffeeIsForClosers]

When Biden gets elected tomorrow, this starts a massive Wall Street tumble, if not tomorrow, in the next few days. Many retirement investments will evaporate. I suggest they invest in gold. Wall Street will realize that Trump's tax cuts are going to be cancelled, and tax increases are on the immediate horizon. This country economically is not going to survive the expense of the 'Green New Deal, no stopping illegal immigration, free healthcare, education, and other benefits for illegal aliens (by the way us legals don't get these benefits).

Also expect very high gas prices in the coming months and years because of the policies, from whoever pushes Biden aside in the next few months. In four years under Biden, I hope those who ran their mouth about Trump on TI, and voted for a Socialist/Communist/Marxist when they realize how terrible this shell of nation is with BLM and ANTIFA running things. I imagine those who elect Biden tomorrow will somehow go into anonymity.

This fear exists before every election but never happens. In fact there was only 1 president who didn’t show positive returns 10 years after he was elected. And that president was George W who experienced the tech bubble, 9/11, and the housing crisis while he was in office.

losers try to time the market. Winners know that time in the market is more important

 

[dbjork6317]

Stimulus is going to happen regardless.

Edit to add: meaning it’s already baked in, to a certain extent.

True, but it will be much more consumer friendly if passed by Dems, will probably have more unemployment protections etc - would have to think that at least for the short term the market will love that idea.

 

[BionicTiger]

True, but it will be much more consumer friendly if passed by Dems, will probably have more unemployment protections etc - would have to think that at least for the short term the market will love that idea.

The difference will negligible as far as markets are concerned. The dem (both, frankly) version would also heighten inflationary impetus even if more consumer friendly, and I think that point is highly debatable. Sector performance the last several days, but especially today/tomorrow is telling you who will win.

 

[SC_Coast_Tigers]

FWIW placed a few bets (spy puts/sqqq calls/vix calls) based soley on the election being contested

 

[nytigerfan]

I‘m expecting a lot of movement in the markets tomorrow and I’m expecting to see some good “deals” over the next few days/weeks.

What have you done leading up to the election? Sold funds/ETFs? Bought shorts? Moved heavily into bonds/gold? Etc?

I am certain Biden will win and I believe @areeves when he says we will all be in bondage. So I have liquidated my positions and assets (sold my houses on eBay) and I am going to spend the money traveling the world until the bondage comes. Hope this helps.

 

[areeves]

I am certain Biden will win and I believe @areeves when he says we will all be in bondage. So I have liquidated my positions and assets (sold my houses on eBay) and I am going to spend the money traveling beige the bondage comes. Hope this helps.

If Biden wins, you’re a smart man 😁

 

[treetiger]

This fear exists before every election but never happens. In fact there was only 1 president who didn’t show positive returns 10 years after he was elected. And that president was George W who experienced the tech bubble, 9/11, and the housing crisis while he was in office.

losers try to time the market. Winners know that time in the market is more important

Unfortunately this year will be different. Just watch.

 

[treetiger]

It's gonna be sweet.

Well if you think it's gonna be sweet, you'll have an orgasm when watching the video with the ANTIFA thugs dressed in battle gear (helmets and body armor) beat up the guy because he refused to give up his American flag to them so they could deface it. It looked like something out of the old Soviet Union or Nazi Germany. You'll certainly get your rocks off from watching that, given your response!!!

 

[CoffeeIsForClosers]

Unfortunately this year will be different. Just watch.

I hate to tell you....but this post won't age well. The market has had a Biden victory increasingly baked in for a while now. As the lead over trump shrunk last week, the market tumbled. As the lead grew over the weekend, the market rallied.

Now, if there is uncertainty over results after today, I'd be willing to bet that it will tumble again. A Biden win with no uncertainty, market will likely get a nice bump.

 

[treetiger]

I hate to tell you....but this post won't age well. The market has had a Biden victory increasingly baked in for a while now. As the lead over trump shrunk last week, the market tumbled. As the lead grew over the weekend, the market rallied.

Now, if there is uncertainty over results after today, I'd be willing to bet that it will tumble again. A Biden win with no uncertainty, market will likely get a nice bump.

"A Biden win with no uncertainty, market will likely get a nice bump."

Are you kidding me??? I can't believe you could even say that. You seem to be a pretty sharp person, but that statement is idiocy!!! Completely contrary to how this market works and reacts to uncertainty!!!

 

[BionicTiger]

I hate to tell you....but this post won't age well. The market has had a Biden victory increasingly baked in for a while now. As the lead over trump shrunk last week, the market tumbled. As the lead grew over the weekend, the market rallied.

Now, if there is uncertainty over results after today, I'd be willing to bet that it will tumble again. A Biden win with no uncertainty, market will likely get a nice bump.

There is some truth here, but it isn't entirely accurate. Much of the market issues last week were a result of a weird earnings reporting season combined with global geopolitical influences. The markets may have had a Biden victory baked in weeks/months ago, but that is no longer the case. They have responded to the uncertainty (the recent drops) and you are now seeing them respond to what they think the new likely outcome is (Trump victory). That said, the markets care little about who controls the executive branch. They care more about there being split control between the legislative branches and/or the executive branch. They tend to not like one party having total control of both houses and the executive branch. And, they obviously do not like uncertainty.

A Biden win will see the market likely overreact and dip sharply in the short term, but that dip will be nothing more than a blip when viewed down the road. If a Biden win occurs with the houses of Congress split or Republicans taking control of both (split congress being far more likely), then the dip will be relatively short lived. It may end up being short lived, regardless, as a blue sweep likely results in a large stimulus getting passed quickly. I THINK that is probably a worst case for the markets in the long term, though, but anyone that tells you they know that with any certainty is lying. A Trump win would likely see the market rise sharply in the near term, but again, that would be nothing more than a blip in the grand scheme. The longer term performance of the markets based on who wins the presidency is a highly debatable point influenced by multiple factors, and honestly it's a hypothetical not worth debating, at this point. We will know soon. Either way, we will likely see growth over the long term - the trajectory and pace of which will vary depending on the makeup of the executive and legislative branches and consequently, their policies.

But, the markets yesterday and today are telling you who they think will win. Look at sector and subsector performance - specifically, industrials, energy, and healthcare/biotech. Within industrials look at machinery/heavy equipment and the defense contractors. Within energy look at the midstream and integrated O&G companies and the peripherals to a lesser extent, and within healthcare look at the biotech/pharma and healthcare management services players.

 

[CoffeeIsForClosers]

"A Biden win with no uncertainty, market will likely get a nice bump."

Are you kidding me??? I can't believe you could even say that. You seem to be a pretty sharp person, but that statement is idiocy!!! Completely contrary to how this market works and reacts to uncertainty!!!

Curious if you'd care to enlighten me on how you think the market works.... I

 

[CoffeeIsForClosers]

There is some truth here, but it isn't entirely accurate. Much of the market issues last week were a result of a weird earnings reporting season combined with global geopolitical influences. The markets may have had a Biden victory baked in weeks/months ago, but that is no longer the case. They have responded to the uncertainty (the recent drops) and you are now seeing them respond to what they think the new likely outcome is (Trump victory). That said, the markets care little about who controls the executive branch. They care more about there being split control between the legislative branches and/or the executive branch. They tend to not like one party having total control of both houses and the executive branch. And, they obviously do not like uncertainty.

A Biden win will see the market likely overreact and dip sharply in the short term, but that dip will be nothing more than a blip when viewed down the road. If a Biden win occurs with the houses of Congress split or Republicans taking control of both (split congress being far more likely), then the dip will be relatively short lived. It may end up being short lived, regardless, as a blue sweep likely results in a large stimulus getting passed quickly. I THINK that is probably a worst case for the markets in the long term, though, but anyone that tells you they know that with any certainty is lying. A Trump win would likely see the market rise sharply in the near term, but again, that would be nothing more than a blip in the grand scheme. The longer term performance of the markets based on who wins the presidency is a highly debatable point influenced by multiple factors, and honestly it's a hypothetical not worth debating, at this point. We will know soon. Either way, we will likely see growth over the long term - the trajectory and pace of which will vary depending on the makeup of the executive and legislative branches and consequently, their policies.

But, the markets yesterday and today are telling you who they think will win. Look at sector and subsector performance - specifically, industrials, energy, and healthcare/biotech. Within industrials look at machinery/heavy equipment and the defense contractors. Within energy look at the midstream and integrated O&G companies and the peripherals to a lesser extent, and within healthcare look at the biotech/pharma and healthcare management services players.

I disagree with very little of what you said, other than I do in fact think that overall Wallstreet sentiment believes the Biden victory is immanent. I just don't think you can say that sector trends in the past week or so really give any real indication of who the next president will be or who will have control over the other governing bodies. I'd say what we are seeing more than anything in these sectors is a result that the sectors making a run are those that are still lagging way behind the rest of the market this year. 2020 has just not been kind to those, while tech and consumer discretionary, etc. thrived.

I also think there's a good bit of the market expecting a Biden win, but it be contested in the courts and not formalized for weeks. Getting rid of this uncertainty was my original point.

I do think we'll have a small pull back no matter who wins but only lasting as long as it takes for the big boys to re-shuffle their allocations. I also think that we are probably both right, that earnings played a part, but so did polling showing Biden's lead lessoning in some key states, but also increased Covid numbers nationally sparked some panic. The thing with the market is you can never tell precisely why it reacts in a certain way. There are always an infinite number of factors playing a part.

I was just attempting to simplify my argument for the audience. Maybe I shouldn't have.

 

[BionicTiger]

I disagree with very little of what you said, other than I do in fact think that overall Wallstreet sentiment believes the Biden victory is immanent. I just don't think you can say that sector trends in the past week or so really give any real indication of who the next president will be or who will have control over the other governing bodies. I'd say what we are seeing more than anything in these sectors is a result that the sectors making a run are those that are still lagging way behind the rest of the market this year. 2020 has just not been kind to those, while tech and consumer discretionary, etc. thrived.

I also think there's a good bit of the market expecting a Biden win, but it be contested in the courts and not formalized for weeks. Getting rid of this uncertainty was my original point.

I do think we'll have a small pull back no matter who wins but only lasting as long as it takes for the big boys to re-shuffle their allocations. I also think that we are probably both right, that earnings played a part, but so did polling showing Biden's lead lessoning in some key states, but also increased Covid numbers nationally sparked some panic. The thing with the market is you can never tell precisely why it reacts in a certain way. There are always an infinite number of factors playing a part.

I was just attempting to simplify my argument for the audience. Maybe I shouldn't have.

I completely agree with your point RE: covid influencing things. I was counting that under geopolitical influences globally - shutdowns/tightening in Europe and potential for the same here. Should have been more specific. I also agree wholeheartedly with your thoughts RE: an unclear result dragging on a few weeks. Won't be the end of the world, but it won't be great for markets in the short term.

I would agree with you regarding sector trends, typically. I don't this time around, because of the oil and gas sector comments recently from the Biden camp and the implications for other sectors/subsectors of a Biden victory. We can certainly debate the practicality of what he said and/or how realistic/likely a total phase out of oil and gas is, but we can't debate he made those comments. A Biden victory in all likelihood would realistically NOT be a devastating blow to oil and gas, simply because a phase out is not possible - much less a phase out on the schedule he posited. Not to mention a barrel of oil is probably the lowest margin petroleum product that can be produced from that amount of raw oil. We rely so heavily on petroleum for so many things that it will still be a hugely important commodity long after you and I are gone. But, it would not be great for share prices in the short term. Share volume and price response yesterday and today would indicate that buyers like the outlook for the major players in that sector. And, while they have certainly lagged from a performance standpoint, the major players are still trading at 50-100% above annual lows.

The heavy equipment and machinery players as well as the defense contractors are responding similarly. Again, a Biden victory would not be the end of the world for them, but it wouldn't be great for them in the short term. But, volumes and price movement would also indicate there that folks are confident in the outlook for those guys. And, while the major defense players (LMT, NOC, RTX, GD, LHX, etc.) have lagged this year, the heavy equipment and machinery guys (CMI, CAT, etc.) have seen pretty darn good years.

You're seeing the same in healthcare and biotech, as well. And, that is a sector where some have lagged and others have outperformed significantly. Again, the sector would survive a Biden victory just fine in the long term, but the acquisition volume and price performance would suggest pretty high confidence there in the last few days - a confidence I am not sure would exist if institutional investors weren't dumping money in. And, I don't think they would be moving into those sectors if they thought universal healthcare or some form of a new ACA was on the horizon. The fact that you are seeing across the board - for managed healthcare companies, R&D stage biotech, and major pharma companies - tells me it is much more than cautious, speculative moves.

Regardless, good discussion. Nice to have a little political/economic discussion that doesn't devolve into absurdity.

 

[CoffeeIsForClosers]

I completely agree with your point RE: covid influencing things. I was counting that under geopolitical influences globally - shutdowns/tightening in Europe and potential for the same here. Should have been more specific. I also agree wholeheartedly with your thoughts RE: an unclear result dragging on a few weeks. Won't be the end of the world, but it won't be great for markets in the short term.

I would agree with you regarding sector trends, typically. I don't this time around, because of the oil and gas sector comments recently from the Biden camp and the implications for other sectors/subsectors of a Biden victory. We can certainly debate the practicality of what he said and/or how realistic/likely a total phase out of oil and gas is, but we can't debate he made those comments. A Biden victory in all likelihood would realistically NOT be a devastating blow to oil and gas, simply because a phase out is not possible - much less a phase out on the schedule he posited. Not to mention a barrel of oil is probably the lowest margin petroleum product that can be produced from that amount of raw oil. We rely so heavily on petroleum for so many things that it will still be a hugely important commodity long after you and I are gone. But, it would not be great for share prices in the short term. Share volume and price response yesterday and today would indicate that buyers like the outlook for the major players in that sector. And, while they have certainly lagged from a performance standpoint, the major players are still trading at 50-100% above annual lows.

The heavy equipment and machinery players as well as the defense contractors are responding similarly. Again, a Biden victory would not be the end of the world for them, but it wouldn't be great for them in the short term. But, volumes and price movement would also indicate there that folks are confident in the outlook for those guys. And, while the major defense players (LMT, NOC, RTX, GD, LHX, etc.) have lagged this year, the heavy equipment and machinery guys (CMI, CAT, etc.) have seen pretty darn good years.

You're seeing the same in healthcare and biotech, as well. And, that is a sector where some have lagged and others have outperformed significantly. Again, the sector would survive a Biden victory just fine in the long term, but the acquisition volume and price performance would suggest pretty high confidence there in the last few days - a confidence I am not sure would exist if institutional investors weren't dumping money in. And, I don't think they would be moving into those sectors if they thought universal healthcare or some form of a new ACA was on the horizon. The fact that you are seeing across the board - for managed healthcare companies, R&D stage biotech, and major pharma companies - tells me it is much more than cautious, speculative moves.

Regardless, good discussion. Nice to have a little political/economic discussion that doesn't devolve into absurdity.

I think energy is a good point. I think there remains the possibility that this is one of those situations where energy has been beaten down for so long that it's inevitable for it to make a run at some point. It could be making a much larger run under the accepted "Trump wins" view. I also think the smart money knows that what Biden said was that his view was to have a long term phase out. That perceived phase out will take generations, but is probably an inevitable fate.

Also, just looked at some clean energy sector performance. Curious how you would explain their performance over the past month and year? Just interesting....

Agreed, very nice to have a civil conversation. I imagine the truth is somewhere in between our two points.

 

[BionicTiger]

I think energy is a good point. I think there remains the possibility that this is one of those situations where energy has been beaten down for so long that it's inevitable for it to make a run at some point. It could be making a much larger run under the accepted "Trump wins" view. I also think the smart money knows that what Biden said was that his view was to have a long term phase out. That perceived phase out will take generations, but is probably an inevitable fate.

Also, just looked at some clean energy sector performance. Curious how you would explain their performance over the past month and year? Just interesting....

Agreed, very nice to have a civil conversation. I imagine the truth is somewhere in between our two points.

Definitely think the clean energy performance is a result of two primary drivers. 1) As you said, clean energy alternatives stand to benefit in the long run no matter what happens in the presidential race. The pressure and need to explore clean energy alternatives is not going away. It is something that will gain more of a foothold and likely take off at some point in the future, at which point we will see widespread adoption. I don't think the tech is there for a take off yet (the margins simply aren't good enough for widespread use/adoption and that is what improved tech will ultimately address), but it is definitely a sector that stands to benefit in the long run as more capitol is invested there. 2) The performance bump can also be attributed to institutional investors allocating money there when it did appear that a Biden victory was a foregone conclusion. I don't think we are there anymore - certainly not to the extent we were several weeks ago. But, in the eyes of the institutional guys, investing in alternative cleaner energy tech is a win win. You have the built in long term potential provided by inherent, secular strength and the added benefit of short term volatility reduction and likely +performance in the event of a Biden victory. So, i don't want to sound as if im explaining the performance away. I'm not. I think a lot of investments were made when it seemed highly likely that a Biden victory was imminent. I don't think we are there anymore. While it's certainly a strong possibility, I don't think it is as likely as it once was. However, I also think investment in clean energy is viewed as relatively sound in the long term because of the momentum and the secular tailwinds that exist for that subsector.

 

[dpic73]

"A Biden win with no uncertainty, market will likely get a nice bump."

Are you kidding me??? I can't believe you could even say that. You seem to be a pretty sharp person, but that statement is idiocy!!! Completely contrary to how this market works and reacts to uncertainty!!!

Dude, this is why listening to right wing radio all day is bad for your brain:

“We see fiscal policy as the most critical area to watch, as it has been helping to sustain the economy through the COVID shock,” BlackRock noted in an extensive analysis released on Monday.

The firm has calculated risks under three separate scenarios: A Trump reelection; a Biden presidency with a fully Democratic Congress, and a Biden win with a Senate that stays GOP

“The two Biden victory scenarios look very different through this fiscal lens, in our view,” according to BlackRock.

“We believe a Democratic sweep could pave the way for a new round of large-scale fiscal stimulus and boost spending on clean energy, transport and housing,” the firm wrote.

“It may also bring higher taxes for companies and the wealthy. A Biden win with a Republican-controlled Senate would likely lead to much less fiscal stimulus, little public investment and no major tax changes,” BlackRock added.

Election 2020: Betting markets completely reverse, favor Trump reelection once more

Betting markets continue to give the former vice president the inside track, while Trump’s chances of being reelected appear less probable.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[treetiger]

The stock market futures actually trended up with Chinese futures went down when they had believed that Trump was going to be elected. Now that everything is in limbo, who knows how it will go today, but I do expect Biden will win the election by picking up Wisconsin and Michigan, so an imminent fall is coming. I'm glad my retirement is not based on market 401-Ks. Those are going to fall with the stocks. And as the Biden presidency unfolds, there will be additional financial collapse. Biden will get his name in the history books as being president, but how long it will be before Camelhead Harris pushes him aside is a mystery, but it will happen. They will soon into their reign deem Biden as incapable and Camelhead Harris will be the president, and will have a good idea who will be (is) pulling her stings. She is nothing more than a puppet. But the financial markets will certainly fall back, maybe way back.

One good thing is it seems likely that the republicans will hold the senate, and I hope the block EVERYTHING these radicals try to do. I see nothing getting accomplished in the next for years. It certainly will seem as the move title said, 'God is Dead'. That's what it will feel for the next 4 years. Please senate, be the firewall, and do your thing, oppose this idiocy!!!

 

[CoffeeIsForClosers]

Definitely think the clean energy performance is a result of two primary drivers. 1) As you said, clean energy alternatives stand to benefit in the long run no matter what happens in the presidential race. The pressure and need to explore clean energy alternatives is not going away. It is something that will gain more of a foothold and likely take off at some point in the future, at which point we will see widespread adoption. I don't think the tech is there for a take off yet (the margins simply aren't good enough for widespread use/adoption and that is what improved tech will ultimately address), but it is definitely a sector that stands to benefit in the long run as more capitol is invested there. 2) The performance bump can also be attributed to institutional investors allocating money there when it did appear that a Biden victory was a foregone conclusion. I don't think we are there anymore - certainly not to the extent we were several weeks ago. But, in the eyes of the institutional guys, investing in alternative cleaner energy tech is a win win. You have the built in long term potential provided by inherent, secular strength and the added benefit of short term volatility reduction and likely +performance in the event of a Biden victory. So, i don't want to sound as if im explaining the performance away. I'm not. I think a lot of investments were made when it seemed highly likely that a Biden victory was imminent. I don't think we are there anymore. While it's certainly a strong possibility, I don't think it is as likely as it once was. However, I also think investment in clean energy is viewed as relatively sound in the long term because of the momentum and the secular tailwinds that exist for that subsector.

@BionicTiger genuinely curious what your thoughts are right now and what we saw in hindsight.

 

[CoffeeIsForClosers]

@BionicTiger genuinely curious what your thoughts are right now and what we have seen in hindsight.

 

[BionicTiger]

@BionicTiger genuinely curious what your thoughts are right now and what we saw in hindsight.

Appears the markets like what they’re anticipating is a split gov, because it means a stimulus will still happen but the majority of the Biden/Democrat platform won’t.

 

[CoffeeIsForClosers]

Appears the markets like what they’re anticipating is a split gov, because it means a stimulus will still happen but the majority of the Biden/Democrat platform won’t.

I agree. Kind of amazing the scale of the positive market reaction when at least some uncertainty still there though don't you think?

 

[BionicTiger]

I agree. Kind of amazing the scale of the positive market reaction when at least some uncertainty still there though don't you think?

Agreed. Very much so.

 

[BionicTiger]

I agree. Kind of amazing the scale of the positive market reaction when at least some uncertainty still there though don't you think?

This entire year has been amazing. Absurd? I’m not even sure what the right word is. I was an underclassman in college for 08/09, so it’s not like I’m drawing on decades of experience and multiple market cycles here. But, I work in the AM/PM world, and this year has seen some craziness on multiple levels. I don’t know how things shake out in the end, politically, but 2020 is going to make for one hell of a case study in asset/portfolio management.

 

[CoffeeIsForClosers]

This entire year has been amazing. Absurd? I’m not even sure what the right word is. I was an underclassman in college for 08/09, so it’s not like I’m drawing on decades of experience and multiple market cycles here. But, I work in the AM/PM world, and this year has seen some craziness on multiple levels. I don’t know how things shake out in the end, politically, but 2020 is going to make for one hell of a case study in asset/portfolio management.

I take it you are in the industry? curious what role

 

[BionicTiger]

I take it you are in the industry? curious what roll

Yeah. Part of a group that handles AM/PM for HNW clients - primarily individuals but a handful of private corporate clients too.

 

[DW4_2016]

When Biden gets elected tomorrow, this starts a massive Wall Street tumble, if not tomorrow, in the next few days. Many retirement investments will evaporate. I suggest they invest in gold. Wall Street will realize that Trump's tax cuts are going to be cancelled, and tax increases are on the immediate horizon. This country economically is not going to survive the expense of the 'Green New Deal, no stopping illegal immigration, free healthcare, education, and other benefits for illegal aliens (by the way us legals don't get these benefits).

Also expect very high gas prices in the coming months and years because of the policies, from whoever pushes Biden aside in the next few months. In four years under Biden, I hope those who ran their mouth about Trump on TI, and voted for a Socialist/Communist/Marxist when they realize how terrible this shell of nation is with BLM and ANTIFA running things. I imagine those who elect Biden tomorrow will somehow go into anonymity.

nailed it

 

[Intracoastal]

I was up very nicely yesterday. Like better than pre covid. I have a play account and others that are managed by someone else.

In my play account, I put in trailing stop loss orders on my entire portfolio yesterday before the bell. This is a nice pattern up right now. Today is down but not that bad. I'll ride it up if it keeps going but I definitely protected myself from a massive selloff which I absolutely see coming.

I'll leave my other accounts to the pros to handle.