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Taxpayers Fleeing Blue States Take $26.8 Billion in Gross Income to Red States

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Are the 81 million Biden voters pissed off already? LOL!!


By Tom Ozimek June 8, 2021 Updated: June 8, 2021

IRS data tracking state-to-state migration shows that blue states saw a net outflow of hundreds of thousands of taxpayers who took nearly $27 billion in taxable gross income with them to red states.
The most recent IRS migration data shows that in the years 2017-2018, a net 399,892 taxpayers and their dependents left blue states—in this case defined as those in which both the state House and Senate are Democrat-controlled.
The figures are based on 2018-2019 tax returns and exemptions, reflecting 2017-2018 state-to-state flows of people. The IRS considers tax returns a proxy for households, while exemptions are a good approximation for the number of individual taxpayers and their dependents.
The nearly 400,000 taxpayers and dependents—a little over .1 percent of the U.S. population—who left blue states took with them a net $26.8 billion in taxable adjusted gross income to red states.
Democrat-controlled California (167,563), New York (153,970), and Illinois (82,107) accounted for the bulk of the exodus, followed by New Jersey (26,853), Massachusetts (26,086), and Maryland (15,916).
The top beneficiary of the blue state outflow was GOP-controlled Texas, which saw a net inflow of 114,818 taxpayers and their dependents, along with a gross income boost of nearly $4 billion.
Interstate migration flows are influenced by a number of factors, including crime rates, job opportunities, and housing costs. A routine Census Bureau survey asks people who move any distance the main reason for their decision to relocate, including employment, housing, going away for college, crime, or to join a significant other.
The most popular choices in 2019-2020 ranked according to popularity, were “wanted newer/better/larger house or apartment,” followed by “new job or job transfer,” “to establish own household,” “other family reason,” “wanted to own home, not rent,” and “wanted cheaper housing.”
The least popular responses were “natural disaster,” “change of climate,” and “foreclosure or eviction,” with “wanted better neighborhood/less crime” somewhere in the middle.
While taxes are not part of the Census Bureau survey, a 2018 analysis by the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, argued that taxes do influence migration, and said tax-related motivations could be inferred from some of the Census Bureau survey’s responses.
“The Census Bureau does not ask movers about taxes. But some of the 19 choices may reflect the influence of taxes,” the institute wrote in the analysis. “For example, people moving for housing reasons may consider the level of property taxes since those taxes are a standard item listed on housing sale notices. Similarly, people moving for new jobs may consider the effect of income taxes if they are, for example, moving between a high-tax state such as California and a state with no income tax such as Nevada.”
Nevada was one of seven blue states that saw a net influx of people, welcoming 31,238 taxpayers and their dependents, along with just over $2 billion in gross income. Most of the people relocating to Nevada came from California.
According to the Tax Foundation’s state-local tax burden analysis, blue states generally have a higher state-local effective tax rate compared to red states.
A recent Rasmussen Poll showed that a majority (55 percent) of likely voters nationwide prefer a smaller government with fewer services and lower taxes.
Follow Tom on Twitter: @OZImekTOM
 
Are the 81 million Biden voters pissed off already? LOL!!


By Tom Ozimek June 8, 2021 Updated: June 8, 2021

IRS data tracking state-to-state migration shows that blue states saw a net outflow of hundreds of thousands of taxpayers who took nearly $27 billion in taxable gross income with them to red states.
The most recent IRS migration data shows that in the years 2017-2018, a net 399,892 taxpayers and their dependents left blue states—in this case defined as those in which both the state House and Senate are Democrat-controlled.
The figures are based on 2018-2019 tax returns and exemptions, reflecting 2017-2018 state-to-state flows of people. The IRS considers tax returns a proxy for households, while exemptions are a good approximation for the number of individual taxpayers and their dependents.
The nearly 400,000 taxpayers and dependents—a little over .1 percent of the U.S. population—who left blue states took with them a net $26.8 billion in taxable adjusted gross income to red states.
Democrat-controlled California (167,563), New York (153,970), and Illinois (82,107) accounted for the bulk of the exodus, followed by New Jersey (26,853), Massachusetts (26,086), and Maryland (15,916).
The top beneficiary of the blue state outflow was GOP-controlled Texas, which saw a net inflow of 114,818 taxpayers and their dependents, along with a gross income boost of nearly $4 billion.
Interstate migration flows are influenced by a number of factors, including crime rates, job opportunities, and housing costs. A routine Census Bureau survey asks people who move any distance the main reason for their decision to relocate, including employment, housing, going away for college, crime, or to join a significant other.
The most popular choices in 2019-2020 ranked according to popularity, were “wanted newer/better/larger house or apartment,” followed by “new job or job transfer,” “to establish own household,” “other family reason,” “wanted to own home, not rent,” and “wanted cheaper housing.”
The least popular responses were “natural disaster,” “change of climate,” and “foreclosure or eviction,” with “wanted better neighborhood/less crime” somewhere in the middle.
While taxes are not part of the Census Bureau survey, a 2018 analysis by the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, argued that taxes do influence migration, and said tax-related motivations could be inferred from some of the Census Bureau survey’s responses.
“The Census Bureau does not ask movers about taxes. But some of the 19 choices may reflect the influence of taxes,” the institute wrote in the analysis. “For example, people moving for housing reasons may consider the level of property taxes since those taxes are a standard item listed on housing sale notices. Similarly, people moving for new jobs may consider the effect of income taxes if they are, for example, moving between a high-tax state such as California and a state with no income tax such as Nevada.”
Nevada was one of seven blue states that saw a net influx of people, welcoming 31,238 taxpayers and their dependents, along with just over $2 billion in gross income. Most of the people relocating to Nevada came from California.
According to the Tax Foundation’s state-local tax burden analysis, blue states generally have a higher state-local effective tax rate compared to red states.
A recent Rasmussen Poll showed that a majority (55 percent) of likely voters nationwide prefer a smaller government with fewer services and lower taxes.
Follow Tom on Twitter: @OZImekTOM

This is true, I have heard people up here refer to SC as little New York. So much trash from queens moving south. Hope you guys enjoy people talking about “da Mets”!
 
This is true, I have heard people up here refer to SC as little New York. So much trash from queens moving south. Hope you guys enjoy people talking about “da Mets”!

He didn't even bother to read the article that says these outflows and inflows were from 2018... Nor did the authors of the article.
 
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EXACTLY. The blue states will still be blue and the red states will be bluer. LMAO

This is true. My district in SC is already purple, and that’s with some serious gerrymandering. Then look at GA - super red not long ago.

It’s part of my frustration with the GOP and creating clear policy positions that make sense to the majority of people, and crisply articulating them in a way everyone understands. Because the left has “tax the rich” and very easy things for simps to get behind.
 
This is true. My district in SC is already purple, and that’s with some serious gerrymandering. Then look at GA - super red not long ago.

It’s part of my frustration with the GOP and creating clear policy positions that make sense to the majority of people, and crisply articulating them in a way everyone understands. Because the left has “tax the rich” and very easy things for simps to get behind.
The problem is, even if you could articulate the policy positions in a way that appealed to more of the populace, the current faces of your party make it very unappealing. If more of you don't start advocating for the more moderate personalities on the right, me thinks you're going nowhere fast.
 
This is true. My district in SC is already purple, and that’s with some serious gerrymandering. Then look at GA - super red not long ago.

It’s part of my frustration with the GOP and creating clear policy positions that make sense to the majority of people, and crisply articulating them in a way everyone understands. Because the left has “tax the rich” and very easy things for simps to get behind.

Id guess, have not looked at details, that GA Senate results weren't because of migration patterns, rather a turnout bump among black voters.

But your point remains sound.
 
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The problem is, even if you could articulate the policy positions in a way that appealed to more of the populace, the current faces of your party make it very unappealing. If more of you don't start advocating for the more moderate personalities on the right, me thinks you're going nowhere fast.

Yea, part of the makeover needs to be better front men (and women). Trump was a two edged sword. From a pure math standpoint, he certainly expanded the tent. But that was at the cost of more reliable suburban voters. For the first time in my voting career, I’m guessing the affluent vote shifted blue (it was red in Trump v. Hillary).

I hope the RNC has done some soul searching and policy making ahead of 2022. It’s a delicate line to walk to recruit pragmatic moderates while maintaining some of the blue collar enthusiasm stoked by Trump.
 
Yea, part of the makeover needs to be better front men (and women). Trump was a two edged sword. From a pure math standpoint, he certainly expanded the tent. But that was at the cost of more reliable suburban voters. For the first time in my voting career, I’m guessing the affluent vote shifted blue (it was red in Trump v. Hillary).

I hope the RNC has done some soul searching and policy making ahead of 2022. It’s a delicate line to walk to recruit pragmatic moderates while maintaining some of the blue collar enthusiasm stoked by Trump.

The rnc doesnt get to decide. And he installed loyalists throughout anyways.

His ego is going to ruin the midterms and the presidential for you guys.
 
😂 curious where these same pundits will place the blame when these “red” states all of a sudden voting like swing states.

Do you geniuses think everyone in those blue states is blue? Maybe its mostly reds fed up getting the hell out down to greener pastures in the south with like minded folks. Take that and suck on it for a bit.
 
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Do you geniuses think everyone in those blue states is blue? Maybe its mostly reds fed up getting the hell out down to greener pastures in the south with like minded folks. Take that and suck on it for a bit.
Maybe….or like in Texas maybe hotbeds like Austin and Dallas are recruiting businesses that are high in tech and coincidentally lean left. But you do you.
 
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Do you geniuses think everyone in those blue states is blue? Maybe its mostly reds fed up getting the hell out down to greener pastures in the south with like minded folks. Take that and suck on it for a bit.
It's both Gomer. Us Communists like lower taxes too.
 
Do you geniuses think everyone in those blue states is blue? Maybe its mostly reds fed up getting the hell out down to greener pastures in the south with like minded folks. Take that and suck on it for a bit.
so that's why texas was as close as its been in decades this past election. either that or they stole that election too. hard to know which company line to toe
 
You just want other people to pay for all the free stuff, amirite?
No, I want you to but don't you worry, I pay my fair share as well. My tax bill this year was a bitter pill to swallow but I gladly paid it. There are plenty of important plans that need to be funded and that requires revenue. Your tax bill won't be higher than it was pre-Trump, so be happy that you're helping to make this world a better place! ;)
 
No, I want you to but don't you worry, I pay my fair share as well. My tax bill this year was a bitter pill to swallow but I gladly paid it. There are plenty of important plans that need to be funded and that requires revenue. Your tax bill won't be higher than it was pre-Trump, so be happy that you're helping to make this world a better place! ;)

Eh, depends on how the cap gains stuff shakes out over the coming years.
 

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