I was trying to make the point that play calling being conservative leads to lower TD probabilities. I found an article that shows the data.
https://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/06/field-position-and-scoring.html
Focus on the blue curve:
0-5 yards: TD probability decreases from about 85% to about 63%
5-10 yards: 63% to 48%
10-15 yards: increases and plateaus around 53% (since you can get a first down in the 0-5 yard range)
15-20 yards: decreases again from 53% to 44%
So you really need to be more aggressive from 9-10 yards out and 15-20 yards out in play calling in my opinion.
In the FSU game, after re-watching the film, there are some examples of conservative play calls but also a few lower probabilities plays.
My takeaways are:
1) Add more Mafah runs off tackle instead of inside
2) Need a dimension of RB out in the flat for a reception (I would like to see Jay Haynes in this role), We seem to have plays for TE but not RB.
We did get very conservative on O in Q4 inside the RZ but had many drives stopped before Q4 due to poor execution.
So play calling grade I would rate a "B" if you throw out the Q4.
https://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/06/field-position-and-scoring.html
Focus on the blue curve:
0-5 yards: TD probability decreases from about 85% to about 63%
5-10 yards: 63% to 48%
10-15 yards: increases and plateaus around 53% (since you can get a first down in the 0-5 yard range)
15-20 yards: decreases again from 53% to 44%
So you really need to be more aggressive from 9-10 yards out and 15-20 yards out in play calling in my opinion.
In the FSU game, after re-watching the film, there are some examples of conservative play calls but also a few lower probabilities plays.
My takeaways are:
1) Add more Mafah runs off tackle instead of inside
2) Need a dimension of RB out in the flat for a reception (I would like to see Jay Haynes in this role), We seem to have plays for TE but not RB.
We did get very conservative on O in Q4 inside the RZ but had many drives stopped before Q4 due to poor execution.
So play calling grade I would rate a "B" if you throw out the Q4.
