Clemson's problems with catastrophic turnovers can be traced back to when Clemson was still on top of the college football world.
In October of 2020, the Tigers were No. 1 and welcomed a supposedly formidable Miami team to Death Valley.
Clemson wrecked the Hurricanes that night in vintage fashion, 42-17.
But it was still a game at halftime because the Hurricanes blocked a field goal and took it back for a touchdown as time expired on the first half to make the score 21-10.
Two games later against Syracuse, the world saw a truly extraordinary happening: A pick-6 thrown by the great Trevor Lawrence, then a junior. The 39-yard score didn't really matter in the end because Clemson dominated from there in a 47-21 rout.
But it's kind of wild to look at the trend that began that season and continues to this day.
For the purposes of this article we'll define catastrophic plays as non-offensive points by the opposition. That means special-teams returns in addition to scores by the opposing defense.
What it does not include is two plays that were massive in Clemson's loss at Duke: the fumbles by Cade Klubnik and Phil Mafah near the goal line.
Not only did Clemson not get points from those possessions, but the Blue Devils turned around and scored off the miscues.
Farther down in the article we'll chart the points-off-turnover statistic in the Dabo era. But right now we'll examine the opponents' non-offensive point progression in the playoff era, and how the points were scored:
2014
SC State 35 fumble return
Georgia Tech 85 INT return
Georgia Tech 62 INT return
Total points: 21
2015
Louisville 100 KO return
Georgia Tech fumble recovery in end zone
NCST 100 KO return
Alabama 95 KO return
Total points: 28
2016
N.C. State 28 INT return
Total points: 7
2017
Alabama 18 INT return
Total points: 7
2018
Louisville 93 KO return
Boston College 74 punt return
Total points: 14
2019
None
Total points: 0
2020
Miami 48 blocked FG return
Syracuse 39 INT return
Boston College 97 fumble return
Notre Dame 23 fumble return
Total points: 28
2021
UGA 74 INT return
Georgia Tech safety
Pittsburgh 50 INT return
FSU 6 fumble return
UConn 99 KO return
Total points: 30
2022
Syracuse 90 fumble return
Notre Dame 17 blocked punt return
Notre Dame 96 INT return
Total points: 21
2023
Charleston Southern 67 INT return
FSU 56 fumble return
Total points: 14
A few things:
-- Certainly no one needs refreshing on the special-teams breakdowns that cost Clemson dearly in 2015.
-- Wow, the 2016 team was a turnover machine with a total of 28. But the opposition turned only one of those 28 into direct points, with N.C. State getting a pick-6 off Deshaun Watson in that unforgettable dogfight in Death Valley. Also of note in 2016: The Tigers got the special-teams problems solved, with zero scores allowed in the return game.
-- Say all you want about Kelly Bryant, but the guy wasn't responsible for any direct-defense scores until the final game of that 2017 season.
-- So for two full seasons in 2018 and 2019 (a total of 30 games) the Tigers allowed just two non-offensive touchdowns. And they didn't mean squat, as they came in beatdowns of Louisville and Boston College in 2018.
But unquestionably the most eye-opening takeaway comes when you remove the special-teams scores and focus on just the touchdowns off offensive miscues:
After Cole Stoudt threw those two pick-sixes in Atlanta in 2014, opposing defenses scored just three times on Clemson over the next five seasons.
The Georgia Tech fumble recovery for a touchdown in 2015 (with Clemson already up 40-10); the N.C. State pick-6 in 2016; and the Alabama pick-6 in the 2017 semifinal.
That's a total of 77 games.
Starting with Lawrence's pick-6 against Syracuse in 2020, opposing defenses have scored 10 touchdowns in 38 games.
Wow. That's ... a lot.
And now let's look at the average return yards off those turnovers:
15.3 yards on the three defensive touchdowns over the 77 games ... and a 59.8-yard average return yardage on the 10 touchdowns in the last 38 games.
And that of course isn't counting the 55-yard return by Duke's Jaylen Stinson off Mafah's fumble.
If not for a truly exceptional bit of speed and determination by Klubnik in chasing Stinson down, that would have been an 88-yard return for a touchdown.
Even with that 55-yard return excluded it's a total of 598 return yards for scores by opponents off 10 turnovers since 2020.
Holy smokes.
OK, to the points-off-turnovers statistic. It's just as important because it also charts how often Clemson's defense has made opponents pay for their mistakes.
We'll go CFP era:
2014: 76-55
2015: 72-83
2016: 75-84
2017: 94-37
2018: 117-45
2019: 134-21
2020: 107-38
2021: 46-27
2022: 81-38
2023: 28-36
It's also quite interesting to go back and look at 2011, Tajh Boyd's first year as a starter. Swinney has compared Klubnik to Boyd early in his career, in that Boyd was a high-level quarterback but it was always an adventure.
That year, opponents piled up a staggering 103 points off turnovers compared to 74 for Clemson. And 28 of those points came courtesy of West Virginia, which turned the Orange Bowl with a 99-yard return of an Andre Ellington fumble.
That team also gave up an interception return for a touchdown, one more fumble return for a touchdown, and two touchdowns in the return game (one kickoff, one punt).
We'll begin our video review with a reminder of something we covered earlier this week: Clemson came dangerously close to two more catastrophic offensive plays against Florida State.
I really don't understand the play calls here:
Here's what we wrote about the first play earlier this week:
Early in Saturday's game, Clemson had the ball at midfield and faced a third-and-1. The call was a play-action swing pass to the right to Tyler Brown, with Sage Ennis releasing from the backfield to block for Brown.
The right guard and right tackle pulled to the left, with the idea to draw the linebackers that way for the run-action to Phil Mafah.
Two problems:
1) The linebackers didn't fall for the run-action. And one, Kalen DeLoach, darted past Ennis to Brown immediately after the snap;
2) The pulling tackle and guard provided a free play-side run to the quarterback for star defensive end Jared Verse.
Two horrible things could have happened on the play:
1) Verse was onto Cade Klubnik so quickly that he could've almost picked the ball out of his hand as he hurried his throw;
2) Klubnik could've gotten off the throw to Brown, and DeLoach could've made the easy pick and taken it back to the end zone.
As it happened, Verse batted the ball with his left hand and the pass was incomplete.
And the second:
Another of the tipped balls came on the Tigers' final drive of regulation, when they had second-and-11 from the Seminoles' 13-yard line.
The play called for a fake end-around to Brown, with Klubnik rolling to his right and tight end Jake Briningstool releasing into the right flat as the lone option.
FSU had two defenders blanketing Briningstool. End Patrick Payton slipped around right tackle Blake Miller and forced Klubnik to rush his throw before Payton batted the ball.
Two horrible things could've happened on the play:
1) Klubnik could've gotten off the pass, and one of the two defenders blanketing Briningstool pick it off;
2) Payton could've batted the pass into the air and intercepted it himself.
And yes, if one of these two things happen it's probably highly plausible that a Seminole is on a long run toward the other end zone.
So in reality, Clemson probably should've considered itself fortunate that it was able to even attempt a 29-yard field goal that missed wide left.
How wild is it that two batted passes were actually a REALLY GOOD thing for Clemson on Saturday, saving the Tigers from two play calls that not only didn't fool the Seminoles but put FSU's best defensive players in position to make devastating plays?
In watching the game back Sunday, I couldn't understand why Clemson didn't take a shot into the end zone on its final two possessions of the game.
Tyler Brown, Beaux Collins and Adam Randall had all made competitive plays on the ball earlier in the game.
And on top of that, FSU was showing zero coverage (meaning zero safety help, and the receivers playing man-up).
The Noles were also in zero coverage earlier in the game when Clemson ran a draw near the end zone on third-and-3 (the Tigers settled for a field goal):
FSU ultimately won this game by giving its playmakers opportunities to make plays.
Clemson doesn't have Keon Coleman or Johnny Wilson, but on this day it did have receivers who won 1-on-1 matchups.
Unquestionably, the head coach is gnashing his teeth this week over the failure to throw even one ball into the end zone to try to take advantage of these matchups.
Syracuse will present a different challenge for the offense because they're in the "sit back, keep everything in front of you and put pressure on the offense by making it execute down the field" mold.
The Orange have a different coordinator in Rocky Long, but this is about what you should expect Saturday (with some creative pressures mixed in):
Garrett Shrader is an elite threat as a runner, and Clemson fans don't need to be reminded of that after he had his way with the defense last year.
But last year he had two weapons you simply had to account for in Sean Tucker and Oronde Gadsden, and those two won't be around him Saturday.
Last year it really felt like Wes Goodwin and Co. identified Tucker as the more dangerous threat, and you can see all the attention he draws here (and, as a result, the open space Shrader took advantage of):
But Shrader is a problem regardless of who's around him. He's so much fun to watch ... unless you're tasked with stopping him:
In October of 2020, the Tigers were No. 1 and welcomed a supposedly formidable Miami team to Death Valley.
Clemson wrecked the Hurricanes that night in vintage fashion, 42-17.
But it was still a game at halftime because the Hurricanes blocked a field goal and took it back for a touchdown as time expired on the first half to make the score 21-10.
Two games later against Syracuse, the world saw a truly extraordinary happening: A pick-6 thrown by the great Trevor Lawrence, then a junior. The 39-yard score didn't really matter in the end because Clemson dominated from there in a 47-21 rout.
But it's kind of wild to look at the trend that began that season and continues to this day.
For the purposes of this article we'll define catastrophic plays as non-offensive points by the opposition. That means special-teams returns in addition to scores by the opposing defense.
What it does not include is two plays that were massive in Clemson's loss at Duke: the fumbles by Cade Klubnik and Phil Mafah near the goal line.
Not only did Clemson not get points from those possessions, but the Blue Devils turned around and scored off the miscues.
Farther down in the article we'll chart the points-off-turnover statistic in the Dabo era. But right now we'll examine the opponents' non-offensive point progression in the playoff era, and how the points were scored:
2014
SC State 35 fumble return
Georgia Tech 85 INT return
Georgia Tech 62 INT return
Total points: 21
2015
Louisville 100 KO return
Georgia Tech fumble recovery in end zone
NCST 100 KO return
Alabama 95 KO return
Total points: 28
2016
N.C. State 28 INT return
Total points: 7
2017
Alabama 18 INT return
Total points: 7
2018
Louisville 93 KO return
Boston College 74 punt return
Total points: 14
2019
None
Total points: 0
2020
Miami 48 blocked FG return
Syracuse 39 INT return
Boston College 97 fumble return
Notre Dame 23 fumble return
Total points: 28
2021
UGA 74 INT return
Georgia Tech safety
Pittsburgh 50 INT return
FSU 6 fumble return
UConn 99 KO return
Total points: 30
2022
Syracuse 90 fumble return
Notre Dame 17 blocked punt return
Notre Dame 96 INT return
Total points: 21
2023
Charleston Southern 67 INT return
FSU 56 fumble return
Total points: 14
A few things:
-- Certainly no one needs refreshing on the special-teams breakdowns that cost Clemson dearly in 2015.
-- Wow, the 2016 team was a turnover machine with a total of 28. But the opposition turned only one of those 28 into direct points, with N.C. State getting a pick-6 off Deshaun Watson in that unforgettable dogfight in Death Valley. Also of note in 2016: The Tigers got the special-teams problems solved, with zero scores allowed in the return game.
-- Say all you want about Kelly Bryant, but the guy wasn't responsible for any direct-defense scores until the final game of that 2017 season.
-- So for two full seasons in 2018 and 2019 (a total of 30 games) the Tigers allowed just two non-offensive touchdowns. And they didn't mean squat, as they came in beatdowns of Louisville and Boston College in 2018.
But unquestionably the most eye-opening takeaway comes when you remove the special-teams scores and focus on just the touchdowns off offensive miscues:
After Cole Stoudt threw those two pick-sixes in Atlanta in 2014, opposing defenses scored just three times on Clemson over the next five seasons.
The Georgia Tech fumble recovery for a touchdown in 2015 (with Clemson already up 40-10); the N.C. State pick-6 in 2016; and the Alabama pick-6 in the 2017 semifinal.
That's a total of 77 games.
Starting with Lawrence's pick-6 against Syracuse in 2020, opposing defenses have scored 10 touchdowns in 38 games.
Wow. That's ... a lot.
And now let's look at the average return yards off those turnovers:
15.3 yards on the three defensive touchdowns over the 77 games ... and a 59.8-yard average return yardage on the 10 touchdowns in the last 38 games.
And that of course isn't counting the 55-yard return by Duke's Jaylen Stinson off Mafah's fumble.
If not for a truly exceptional bit of speed and determination by Klubnik in chasing Stinson down, that would have been an 88-yard return for a touchdown.
Even with that 55-yard return excluded it's a total of 598 return yards for scores by opponents off 10 turnovers since 2020.
Holy smokes.
OK, to the points-off-turnovers statistic. It's just as important because it also charts how often Clemson's defense has made opponents pay for their mistakes.
We'll go CFP era:
2014: 76-55
2015: 72-83
2016: 75-84
2017: 94-37
2018: 117-45
2019: 134-21
2020: 107-38
2021: 46-27
2022: 81-38
2023: 28-36
It's also quite interesting to go back and look at 2011, Tajh Boyd's first year as a starter. Swinney has compared Klubnik to Boyd early in his career, in that Boyd was a high-level quarterback but it was always an adventure.
That year, opponents piled up a staggering 103 points off turnovers compared to 74 for Clemson. And 28 of those points came courtesy of West Virginia, which turned the Orange Bowl with a 99-yard return of an Andre Ellington fumble.
That team also gave up an interception return for a touchdown, one more fumble return for a touchdown, and two touchdowns in the return game (one kickoff, one punt).
We'll begin our video review with a reminder of something we covered earlier this week: Clemson came dangerously close to two more catastrophic offensive plays against Florida State.
I really don't understand the play calls here:
Here's what we wrote about the first play earlier this week:
Early in Saturday's game, Clemson had the ball at midfield and faced a third-and-1. The call was a play-action swing pass to the right to Tyler Brown, with Sage Ennis releasing from the backfield to block for Brown.
The right guard and right tackle pulled to the left, with the idea to draw the linebackers that way for the run-action to Phil Mafah.
Two problems:
1) The linebackers didn't fall for the run-action. And one, Kalen DeLoach, darted past Ennis to Brown immediately after the snap;
2) The pulling tackle and guard provided a free play-side run to the quarterback for star defensive end Jared Verse.
Two horrible things could have happened on the play:
1) Verse was onto Cade Klubnik so quickly that he could've almost picked the ball out of his hand as he hurried his throw;
2) Klubnik could've gotten off the throw to Brown, and DeLoach could've made the easy pick and taken it back to the end zone.
As it happened, Verse batted the ball with his left hand and the pass was incomplete.
And the second:
Another of the tipped balls came on the Tigers' final drive of regulation, when they had second-and-11 from the Seminoles' 13-yard line.
The play called for a fake end-around to Brown, with Klubnik rolling to his right and tight end Jake Briningstool releasing into the right flat as the lone option.
FSU had two defenders blanketing Briningstool. End Patrick Payton slipped around right tackle Blake Miller and forced Klubnik to rush his throw before Payton batted the ball.
Two horrible things could've happened on the play:
1) Klubnik could've gotten off the pass, and one of the two defenders blanketing Briningstool pick it off;
2) Payton could've batted the pass into the air and intercepted it himself.
And yes, if one of these two things happen it's probably highly plausible that a Seminole is on a long run toward the other end zone.
So in reality, Clemson probably should've considered itself fortunate that it was able to even attempt a 29-yard field goal that missed wide left.
How wild is it that two batted passes were actually a REALLY GOOD thing for Clemson on Saturday, saving the Tigers from two play calls that not only didn't fool the Seminoles but put FSU's best defensive players in position to make devastating plays?
In watching the game back Sunday, I couldn't understand why Clemson didn't take a shot into the end zone on its final two possessions of the game.
Tyler Brown, Beaux Collins and Adam Randall had all made competitive plays on the ball earlier in the game.
And on top of that, FSU was showing zero coverage (meaning zero safety help, and the receivers playing man-up).
The Noles were also in zero coverage earlier in the game when Clemson ran a draw near the end zone on third-and-3 (the Tigers settled for a field goal):
FSU ultimately won this game by giving its playmakers opportunities to make plays.
Clemson doesn't have Keon Coleman or Johnny Wilson, but on this day it did have receivers who won 1-on-1 matchups.
Unquestionably, the head coach is gnashing his teeth this week over the failure to throw even one ball into the end zone to try to take advantage of these matchups.
Syracuse will present a different challenge for the offense because they're in the "sit back, keep everything in front of you and put pressure on the offense by making it execute down the field" mold.
The Orange have a different coordinator in Rocky Long, but this is about what you should expect Saturday (with some creative pressures mixed in):
Garrett Shrader is an elite threat as a runner, and Clemson fans don't need to be reminded of that after he had his way with the defense last year.
But last year he had two weapons you simply had to account for in Sean Tucker and Oronde Gadsden, and those two won't be around him Saturday.
Last year it really felt like Wes Goodwin and Co. identified Tucker as the more dangerous threat, and you can see all the attention he draws here (and, as a result, the open space Shrader took advantage of):
But Shrader is a problem regardless of who's around him. He's so much fun to watch ... unless you're tasked with stopping him:
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