Trump Path to Victory in 2024

[scotchtiger]

Now that he's running, I'm interested to see how his supporters believe he will win the presidency in 2024. It would be complete idiocy to support someone who you don't believe can win, so obviously they believe that it is possible or even likely. Let's take a look at the electoral map, 2020 results and 2022 trend that will illuminate the odds.

@TigerGrowls @TigerRagRob @Tiger Guru and even @Cocks are Number 1 looking at you guys. Let's hear the path.

Let's keep this thread free of emotion and feelings. The focus should be on logic and math.

Let's start with the 2020 results. Trump secured 232 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win. Any path to victory must assume that he sweeps the states he won in 2020, though that is far from a certainty. But let's assume that happens because his path to victory is impossible if it does not.

That leaves 38 electoral votes that he needs to flip. Based on margins, the states that would be in contention for a flip would be:

• Georgia (16)
• Arizona (11)
• Nevada (6)
• Pennsylvania (20)
• Wisconsin (10)
• Michigan (16)

From here, let's evaluate how statewide elections turned out and how Trump-supported candidates faired in the 2022 midterms. This will measure the likelihood of Trump flipping these states.

• Georgia - Kemp comfortably won the governor's race, demonstrating enough R support to flip this state. However, the Trump-endorsed senate candidate gathered fewer votes than his democratic challenger, which is revealing. While GA can flip, it is still a purple state, candidate quality matters and Trump's affiliation resulted in Walker lagging Kemp, who distanced himself from Trump.
• Arizona - Mark Kelly (D) just won the senate race by 5 points over a Trump-backed candidate. Katie Hobbs (D) just won the governor's race over Trump-backed Kari Lake, who seemed to have momentum. Another purple state, but more D than GA and Trump-backed candidates went 0-2.
• Nevada - D won the senate race, R won the governor's race. I'm not sure how involved Trump was in those races. But another purple state that Trump lost in 2020 that he would need to flip.
• Pennsylvania - D won the governor's race in a landslide. A terrible D candidate beat Trump-backed Oz by 4 1/2 points. This was a particular indictment of Trump's ability to positively influence a potential swing state.
• Wisconsin - R Ron Johnson won by 1 point, underperforming polls that had him up by 3+ points. He was also an incumbent.
• Michigan - D Whitmer won by 11 points in a blowout, despite her terrible handling of Covid in that state.

Let's assume Trump loses the states that went 100% dem in 2022. That leaves GA (16), NV (6) and WI (10). That would bring his electoral vote total to 264, 6 short of the presidency.

So Trump needs to win 100% of the states he won in 2020, 100% of the swing states that demonstrated some ability to elect a R in 2022 and at least 1 more state.

Trump guys, walk me through the map. I know you have a clear idea of the path to victory in your mind, supported by facts and logic, so I'm excited to see it.

 

[TigerRagRob]

Two years is a very longtime in politics so we will see what happens. The establishment will do everything in their power to stop it, by hook or crook. Mitch winning ML again is a huge setback for the populist movement and will have an effect in 2024. The establishment has a stranglehold on this country and wont be an easy or short fight for the people to win...

 

[yoshi121374]

Two years is a very longtime in politics so we will see what happens. The establishment will do everything in their power to stop it, by hook or crook. Mitch winning ML again is a huge setback for the populist movement and will have an effect in 2024. The establishment has a stranglehold on this country and wont be an easy or short fight for the people to win...

I love the devil that is "the establishment" in your minds. How about Trump being an asshole and making zero friends maybe impacting him more than the establishment?

You guys have fully bought into this victim narrative that just kills me.

 

[TigerRagRob]

I love the devil that is "the establishment" in your minds. How about Trump being an asshole and making zero friends maybe impacting him more than the establishment?

You guys have fully bought into this victim narrative that just kills me.

Blows my mind how stupid and sheepish most people are. You keep voting and doing the same shit over and over and expect it to end different. You never ask yourself why things dont get done as promised by the people you vote for when they have all the power they need to do it. Instead they just blame the other side and the sheep fall for that...Ever wonder why dems went after people like AOC when she first got there? Ever wonder why she quit calling them out for what Im saying? You had establishment types going after her. The establishment runs all the big corps, media, and gov. You have like 5 mega corps(vanguard,blackrock,etc) that own everything. Yet the sheep just fall in line and accept everything. They pit us populist on the left and right against each other.

 

[97ClemsonMac]

So much can happen in 2 years so its hard to tell how any candidate would do IMO. Will we be in a war? What will Ukraine look like? Is Taiwan still independent? What will be the law regarding abortion in the states? Will Biden and Trump be alive even (not wishing ill against neither by any means but one turns 80 this year and the other is overweight and like 74)? Will we still be looking at record high costs and inflation or has it gotten better/worse? Have we dwindled into a depression or is the economy absolutely booming? What does the gasoline industry look like?

I'd argue there could be an outsider behind the scenes that would absolutely sweep up a vast majority of the Country, someone the likes of Mark Cuban, which has been mentioned on this board before. The possibilities are vast.

I'd argue its hard for republicans to win the election regardless who is the nominee, and if you look at the midterms it further corroborates this. Pennsylvania is (as you mentioned) probable the best example of this. Though thousands of votes were cast prior to the debate, the dude is literally a fish and still defeated the republican senator. More proof, look at the governor's race there. A blowout. I thought this state was the R's best chance to flip, at least in the senate, and obviously not the case.

I have said elsewhere that I think the largest driving force in the midterms was Roe. From many of the women that I know, R and D, thought the decision to overturn was wrong and it drove them out to vote. Until Republican's can adopt a logical, modern, and sensical solution WITH the democrats on this issue, there will not be a Republican President. Further, unless the country goes literally to hell and its $10 gas, economy self implodes, were on the verge or getting nuked or we've been nuked, there's no food to eat, etc., probably hard for Trump to win again. Then again, I never once thought he had a change in 2016

 

[yoshi121374]

Blows my mind how stupid and sheepish most people are. You keep voting and doing the same shit over and over and expect it to end different. You never ask yourself why things dont get done as promised by the people you vote for when they have all the power the need to do it. Instead they just blame the other side and the sheep fall for that...Ever wonder why dems went after people like AOC when she first got there? Ever wonder why she quit calling them out for what Im saying? You had establishment types going after her. The establishment runs all the big corps, media, and gov. You have like 5 mega corps(vanguard,blackrock,etc) that own everything. Yet the sheep just fall in line and accept everything. They pit us populist on the left and right against each other.

You calling me sheepish while you support Donald Trump is freaking hilarious. You guys love to cast this wide net that anyone you don't like is "establishment".

Do you realize how many people work in our Government? Do you realize how many people you are demonizing? We need professionals who are in place and can insure continuity as different politicians come and go.

 

[dpic73]

So much can happen in 2 years so its hard to tell how any candidate would do IMO. Will we be in a war? What will Ukraine look like? Is Taiwan still independent? What will be the law regarding abortion in the states? Will Biden and Trump be alive even (not wishing ill against neither by any means but one turns 80 this year and the other is overweight and like 74)? Will we still be looking at record high costs and inflation or has it gotten better/worse? Have we dwindled into a depression or is the economy absolutely booming? What does the gasoline industry look like?

I'd argue there could be an outsider behind the scenes that would absolutely sweep up a vast majority of the Country, someone the likes of Mark Cuban, which has been mentioned on this board before. The possibilities are vast.

I'd argue its hard for republicans to win the election regardless who is the nominee, and if you look at the midterms it further corroborates this. Pennsylvania is (as you mentioned) probable the best example of this. Though thousands of votes were cast prior to the debate, the dude is literally a fish and still defeated the republican senator. More proof, look at the governor's race there. A blowout. I thought this state was the R's best chance to flip, at least in the senate, and obviously not the case.

I have said elsewhere that I think the largest driving force in the midterms was Roe. From many of the women that I know, R and D, thought the decision to overturn was wrong and it drove them out to vote. Until Republican's can adopt a logical, modern, and sensical solution WITH the democrats on this issue, there will not be a Republican President. Further, unless the country goes literally to hell and its $10 gas, economy self implodes, were on the verge or getting nuked or we've been nuked, there's no food to eat, etc., probably hard for Trump to win again. Then again, I never once thought he had a change in 2016

I agree with everything you said here except I don't believe it's hard to understand why the PA Governor's race was a blowout. It wasn't because mastriano was a Republican, it was because he was a conspiracy theorist who was at the Capitol on Jan. 6th, he wanted to outlaw abortion with no exceptions and he made it clear that he would throw out election results he didn't approve of. Insane to run a candidate like that.

 

[97ClemsonMac]

I agree with everything you said here except I don't believe it's hard to understand why the PA Governor's race was a blowout. It wasn't because mastriano was a Republican, it was because he was a conspiracy theorist who was at the Capitol on Jan. 6th, he wanted to outlaw abortion with no exceptions and he made it clear that he would throw out election results he didn't approve of. Insane to run a candidate like that.

Well that makes sense - I was not aware of that! Certainly only helped Fetterman's case as well I'm sure

 

[dpic73]

Well that makes sense - I was not aware of that! Certainly only helped Fetterman's case as well I'm sure

Yep, he was a bad dude and the Republican party was sick that he was the candidate. Very few people would endorse him ....except DeSantis, which also surprised a lot of people. And you're right, it certainly helped Fetterman.

Doug Mastriano: is the Trump-backed election denier too extreme to win?

The far-right Republican, running for governor in Pennsylvania, has extremist views – and he hasn’t softened his positions one bit

www.theguardian.com

 

[hopefultiger13]

Full disclosure. I didn't think Trump had a chance in 2016. Shows what I know. I do think that he benefitted from being new on the scene AND the Democrats picking one of the most unelectable people they could find.

Trump was able to convince voters to give him a shot as an outsider. And people simply weren't aware that he would literally say anything, no matter untrue... Remember his tax plan that was going to cost him a bundle, but would fix the country and help the middle class? Remember his healthcare plan that was so much better than Obamacare and that he just needed until after the elections to finalize it. Remember how he was going to release his tax returns after the election? Remember how Obama played too much golf and that he (Trump) wouldn't be playing golf... he'd be in the Whitehouse working for you?

I think that style (gaslighting) is not going to fool people this time around. People know who he is at this point (love him or hate him). There aren't a lot of folks that don't have a strong opinion of him one way or the other. Remember, by Foxnews opinion polls, Trump NEVER got a 50% approval rate during the entire 4 years he was President not once and he was FAR from that mark (down in the 30s) when he left office.

I just don't think he can get the votes that he got in 2016 OR 2020.

 

[scotchtiger]

Full disclosure. I didn't think Trump had a chance in 2016. Shows what I know. I do think that he benefitted from being new on the scene AND the Democrats picking one of the most unelectable people they could find.

Trump was able to convince voters to give him a shot as an outsider. And people simply weren't aware that he would literally say anything, no matter untrue... Remember his tax plan that was going to cost him a bundle, but would fix the country and help the middle class? Remember his healthcare plan that was so much better than Obamacare and that he just needed until after the elections to finalize it. Remember how he was going to release his tax returns after the election? Remember how Obama played too much golf and that he (Trump) wouldn't be playing golf... he'd be in the Whitehouse working for you?

I think that style (gaslighting) is not going to fool people this time around. People know who he is at this point (love him or hate him). There aren't a lot of folks that don't have a strong opinion of him one way or the other. Remember, by Foxnews opinion polls, Trump NEVER got a 50% approval rate during the entire 4 years he was President not once and he was FAR from that mark (down in the 30s) when he left office.

I just don't think he can get the votes that he got in 2016 OR 2020.

I agree. I voted for him twice. The election steal stuff, the January 6th event and frankly, tanking the GA senate races with his childish antics around the stimulus check (saying it should be $2k instead of $600, which had bipartisan approval until he opened his mouth) and the “your vote won’t matter” nonsense that he and his minions inspired was a collective nail in the coffin for me.

Add to that his public opinion among reasonable republicans, moderates and independents and it is abundantly clear that he is in far worse shape in 2024 than 2016 or 2020.

That said, sane people do not support candidates that they don’t believe can win. And there are posters on this board like @TigerGrowls and @TigerRagRob that strongly support trump in 2024. So I’m looking forward to the logic-supported path to victory proposal.

 

[TigerRagRob]

I agree. I voted for him twice. The election steal stuff, the January 6th event and frankly, tanking the GA senate races with his childish antics around the stimulus check (saying it should be $2k instead of $600, which had bipartisan approval until he opened his mouth) and the “your vote won’t matter” nonsense that he and his minions inspired was a collective nail in the coffin for me.

Add to that his public opinion among reasonable republicans, moderates and independents and it is abundantly clear that he is in far worse shape in 2024 than 2016 or 2020.

That said, sane people do not support candidates that they don’t believe can win. And there are posters on this board like @TigerGrowls and @TigerRagRob that strongly support trump in 2024. So I’m looking forward to the logic-supported path to victory proposal.

There isnt much choice other than Trump. Was Clinton a better option? How about Bush? Or maybe Biden? Answer is no to all the above, they are all establishment. There are many things I dont like about Trump, but I dont see a better option and thats the truth...FYI, I never voted for Trump in a primary...

 

[scotchtiger]

There isnt much choice other than Trump. Was Clinton a better option? How about Bush? Or maybe Biden? Answer is no to all the above, they are all establishment. There are many things I dont like about Trump, but I dont see a better option and thats the truth...FYI, I never voted for Trump in a primary...

So how does he win in the general? Walk me through the electoral math.

 

[TigerRagRob]

So how does he win in the general? Walk me through the electoral math.

Uphill battle and populist conservatives/libs(MAGA) have to start doing what the establishment does. Start ballot harvesting and win local elections with populist people. We are just talking about switching less than a half million votes nationwide to flip the EC. Its not a overly massive thing to do. Trump is getting stronger and stronger with latinos and other groups. So Trump or the guy below?

 

[TigerGrowls]

@TigerRagRob is exactly right. These elections are all won or lost on tight margins. A lot can and will happen over the next 2 years. Trump does not play to lose and he will have a strategy to attract voters. I think you guys are all way over estimating his loss of support even though some of that has occurred. I want to do what I think is right at this time and just go vote for Trump in the repub primary in GA and it will be decided by republican voters. If Trump is defeated for the nomination by DeSantis or someone else in the primaries then I will support that person in the general election.

It was an improbable path Trump took to win in 2016. He had to bust through that blue wall to win, so he did it once and can do it again imo if he can get a fair election. The dem machine and dem governors, legislators have set up the system in states they control to give them advantages to win so it will not be easy for anyone to beat them. Construction of an opposite type system to enhance repub chances has taken place in FL and look at the results, so even the rules and execution of elections have been weaponized by both parties. We are in a very crazy time. We had Katie Hobbs in AZ who is secy of state and runs elections running for governor and did not recuse herself. Why did over 30% of voting machines quit working on election day in Maricopa County?

To summarize, are you saying there is a chance? Hell Yes!!

 

[dual_tiger]

Uphill battle and populist conservatives/libs(MAGA) have to start doing what the establishment does. Start ballot harvesting and win local elections with populist people. We are just talking about switching less than a half million votes nationwide to flip the EC. Its not an overly massive thing to do. Trump is getting stronger and stronger with latinos and other groups.

He will never win again and I did vote for him twice. I know I would vote independent before I would vote for him a third time. It would be a disaster even in the small chance he could get in. Trump would never be allowed to do anything for the people of this country because of his mouth the dems would see to that. Desantis is gettin my vote in the primary and hopefully the rest of you guys come to your senses before it is too late.

 

[TigerGrowls]

He will never win again and I did vote for him twice. I know I would vote independent before I would vote for him a third time. It would be a disaster even in the small chance he could get in. Trump would never be allowed to do anything for the people of this country because of his mouth the dems would see to that. Desantis is gettin my vote in the primary and hopefully the rest of you guys come to your senses before it is too late.

Lets not give any absolutes here. You are not swaying me or anyone else with that. Let it play out and see what happens. Trumps on the job accomplishments were the best in modern history. I absolutely think he can get rid of this negativity around him by 24 which is mostly manufactured by msm anyway. Do not let msm brainwash you and/or tell you what to do. There is not a lot of middle ground between dems and repubs on many issues at this point anyways. People that say they will sit out an election or vote for a dem over Trump are just beating themselves over the head for a stupid reason.

 

[dual_tiger]

Lets not give any absolutes here. You are not swaying me or anyone else with that. Let it play out and see what happens. Trumps on the job accomplishments were the best in modern history. I absolutely think he can get rid of this negativity around him by 24 which is mostly manufactured by msm anyway. Do not let msm brainwash you and/or tell you what to do. There is not a lot of middle ground between dems and repubs on many issues at this point anyways. People that say they will sit out an election or vote for a dem over Trump are just beating themselves over the head for a stupid reason.

MSM hasn’t brain washed me or a lot of pubs who feel this way. I have been watching what Desantis has done in Fla and have come away very impressed and so have the people voting for him. I have an open mind but for now he is where I am leaning. Trump will never get the negativity around him gone big guy because he won’t allow his mouth to take a break. I don’t understand why people like you can’t see that. Even though he did some good during his short time in office the orange in my opinion isn’t worth the squeeze. I will not vote for him again.

 

[TigerGrowls]

MSM hasn’t brain washed me or a lot of pubs who feel this way. I have been watching what Desantis has done in Fla and have come away very impressed and so have the people voting for him. I have an open mind but for now he is where I am leaning. Trump will never get the negativity around him gone big guy because he won’t allow his mouth to take a break. I don’t understand why people like you can’t see that. Even though he did some good during his short time in office the orange in my opinion isn’t worth the squeeze. I will not vote for him again.

Happy for you to do what you want which I will also do.

 

[TigerRagRob]

He will never win again and I did vote for him twice. I know I would vote independent before I would vote for him a third time. It would be a disaster even in the small chance he could get in. Trump would never be allowed to do anything for the people of this country because of his mouth the dems would see to that. Desantis is gettin my vote in the primary and hopefully the rest of you guys come to your senses before it is too late.

I like DeSantis, but there are things that worry me about him. Mostly the establishment being for him. I would never vote for an establishment fuk again. Like I said before , I would vote for a populist lib like Gabbard over anyone from the establishment...

 

[dual_tiger]

I like DeSantis, but there are things that worry me about him. Mostly the establishment being for him. I would never vote for an establishment fuk again. Like I said before , I would vote for a populist lib like Gabbard over anyone from the establishment...

I would would vote for Tulsi Gabbard in a heart beat.Don’t think she would win though. I am really hoping that DeSantis and Gabbard run together. To me that would be a great combo. All politicians are dirty in some ways you just can’t reach that kind of power without being that way imo. Trump to me even with the good he did and I voted for him twice is not what this country needs right now. Like I said before I will not vote for him again.

 

[TigerRagRob]

I would would vote for Tulsi Gabbard in a heart beat.Don’t think she would win though. I am really hoping that DeSantis and Gabbard run together. To me that would be a great combo. All politicians are dirty in some ways you just can’t reach that kind of power without being that way imo. Trump to me even with the good he did and I voted for him twice is not what this country needs right now. Like I said before I will not vote for him again.

Why I like Trump more is I know he wants to drain the swamp and it needs to be done. Im not sold DeSantis would do it. Like I said I worry he is a trojan horse to the populist movement. I dont agree with Tulsi on much but she is America first and very civil compared to most. Tulsi types I can live with on the left. I cant stand the establishment however. They toy with the people and enrich themselves at our expense. They lie and manipulate both sides of the populist isle and pit us against each other.

 

[dual_tiger]

Why I like Trump more is I know he wants to drain the swamp and it needs to be done. Im not sold DeSantis would do it. Like I said I worry he is a trojan horse to the populist movement. I dont agree with Tulsi on much but she is America first and very civil compared to most. Tulsi types I can live with on the left. I cant stand the establishment however. They toy with the people and enrich themselves at our expense. They lie and manipulate both sides of the populist isle and pit us against each other.

I hate to break this to you big guy but you are living in a fantasy world. Until term limits are put into place that will never happen.Trump will never drain the swamp as you put it. Mostly because he will not have the power to do it regardless if he is president. Think about it if he had that power and wanted to do it he would have in his first term. If Desantis is a Trojan horse then he has fooled everyone including the people who know him best in Florida who voted for him twice and by a huge majority the second time.

 

[DW4_2016]

Happy for you to do what you want which I will also do.

it's crumbling right in front of you. who woud have predicted trump would splinter the party. shocking stuff

 

[DW4_2016]

Why I like Trump more is I know he wants to drain the swamp and it needs to be done. Im not sold DeSantis would do it. Like I said I worry he is a trojan horse to the populist movement. I dont agree with Tulsi on much but she is America first and very civil compared to most. Tulsi types I can live with on the left. I cant stand the establishment however. They toy with the people and enrich themselves at our expense. They lie and manipulate both sides of the populist isle and pit us against each other.

trump didn't drain the swamp on round 1, but if you elect him in again he will for sure do it this time. i bet you think he will actually finish the wall too.

awesome how far you can reach with his dick in your mouth.

 

[TigerRagRob]

Lets not give any absolutes here. You are not swaying me or anyone else with that. Let it play out and see what happens. Trumps on the job accomplishments were the best in modern history. I absolutely think he can get rid of this negativity around him by 24 which is mostly manufactured by msm anyway. Do not let msm brainwash you and/or tell you what to do. There is not a lot of middle ground between dems and repubs on many issues at this point anyways. People that say they will sit out an election or vote for a dem over Trump are just beating themselves over the head for a stupid reason.

He can but must stay focused on the economy and be anti-war and not talking about 2020. That is a turnoff. Play the game the way the establishment does. Get people ballot harvesting and drop boxes at churches and gun ranges and other places conservatives tend to go to often. Make sure gramps in the retirement home votes and you take the ballot and drop it off afterwards. Do everything they do...

 

[TigerRagRob]

trump didn't drain the swamp on round 1, but if you elect him in again he will for sure do it this time. i bet you think he will actually finish the wall too.

awesome how far you can reach with his dick in your mouth.

Nope he didnt understand the establishment. He though like most it was dems vs pubs until the establishment pretending to be pubs stabbed him and the movement in the back. Now he knows the truth as does millions more...

 

[TigerRagRob]

it's crumbling right in front of you. who woud have predicted trump would splinter the party. shocking stuff

Trump didnt do it. It started long ago and he is just the rally point for populist on the right and left. He is a lib dem after all from NY...

 

[iceheart08]

He can but must stay focused on the economy and be anti-war and not talking about 2020. That is a turnoff. Play the game the way the establishment does. Get people ballot harvesting and drop boxes at churches and gun ranges and other places conservatives tend to go to often. Make sure gramps in the retirement home votes and you take the ballot and drop it off afterwards. Do everything they do...

Lololololol.

Just shows how unbelievably ignorant you are to suggest these as changes that need to be made. Since they almost all are happening already, and have been for some time.

 

[TigerRagRob]

Lololololol.

Just shows how unbelievably ignorant you are to suggest these as changes that need to be made. Since they almost all are happening already, and have been for some time.

Lol okie dokie fella. We will see in 2-3 months the effect of what pedohitler has been doing with the economy...

 

[iceheart08]

Lol okie dokie fella. We will see in 2-3 months the effect of what pedohitler has been doing with the economy...

Insane response.

 

[dpic73]

Lol okie dokie fella. We will see in 2-3 months the effect of what pedohitler has been doing with the economy...

You mean the clowns you voted in because inflation aren't going to do anything to help? That was rhetorical btw

 

[DW4_2016]

Lol okie dokie fella. We will see in 2-3 months the effect of what pedohitler has been doing with the economy...

will he sink the UK economy with insane right wing policies?

 

[TigerFlow]

Always entertaining to hop over to the round table and see what the dregs of the gene pool are ranting and raving about.

Nice well thought out initial post OP. I'm not surprised you haven't actually gotten a logical response(because there isn't one, as you know).


It is going to be interesting to see who the two candidates end up being. If we end up with Biden v Trump Rd 2, that is neither party's best option and will truly be a sad statement on where we are with this dog & pony show we call American politics.

 

[TigerRagRob]

this is how I view politics in the US now days. The populist left in a tug of war with the populist right and then the establishment ruling class doing to both what they do best...

 

[TigerRagRob]

will he sink the UK economy with insane right wing policies?

Establishment runs the UK also little bro. They run the world.

 

[Willence]

Two years is a very longtime in politics so we will see what happens. The establishment will do everything in their power to stop it, by hook or crook. Mitch winning ML again is a huge setback for the populist movement and will have an effect in 2024. The establishment has a stranglehold on this country and wont be an easy or short fight for the people to win...

What do you feel are the core philosophies of the populist movement? What policies do you want to see that you feel Trump believes in?

 

[TigerRagRob]

I hate to break this to you big guy but you are living in a fantasy world. Until term limits are put into place that will never happen.Trump will never drain the swamp as you put it. Mostly because he will not have the power to do it regardless if he is president. Think about it if he had that power and wanted to do it he would have in his first term. If Desantis is a Trojan horse then he has fooled everyone including the people who know him best in Florida who voted for him twice and by a huge majority the second time.

fantasy world? I said he wants to drain the swamp not that he can. See the difference? Dont know if DeSantis is establishment or not but the fact the establishment is all behind him is a sign for caution not an indictment. We got two years to figure it all out. I also said the establishment controls around 90 seats in the senate and around 400 in the house so we have a ways to go but we need more populist running on the left and right...

 

[Cocks are Number 1]

Now that he's running, I'm interested to see how his supporters believe he will win the presidency in 2024. It would be complete idiocy to support someone who you don't believe can win, so obviously they believe that it is possible or even likely. Let's take a look at the electoral map, 2020 results and 2022 trend that will illuminate the odds.

@TigerGrowls @TigerRagRob @Tiger Guru and even @Cocks are Number 1 looking at you guys. Let's hear the path.

Let's keep this thread free of emotion and feelings. The focus should be on logic and math.

Let's start with the 2020 results. Trump secured 232 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win. Any path to victory must assume that he sweeps the states he won in 2020, though that is far from a certainty. But let's assume that happens because his path to victory is impossible if it does not.

That leaves 38 electoral votes that he needs to flip. Based on margins, the states that would be in contention for a flip would be:

• Georgia (16)
• Arizona (11)
• Nevada (6)
• Pennsylvania (20)
• Wisconsin (10)
• Michigan (16)

From here, let's evaluate how statewide elections turned out and how Trump-supported candidates faired in the 2022 midterms. This will measure the likelihood of Trump flipping these states.

• Georgia - Kemp comfortably won the governor's race, demonstrating enough R support to flip this state. However, the Trump-endorsed senate candidate gathered fewer votes than his democratic challenger, which is revealing. While GA can flip, it is still a purple state, candidate quality matters and Trump's affiliation resulted in Walker lagging Kemp, who distanced himself from Trump.
• Arizona - Mark Kelly (D) just won the senate race by 5 points over a Trump-backed candidate. Katie Hobbs (D) just won the governor's race over Trump-backed Kari Lake, who seemed to have momentum. Another purple state, but more D than GA and Trump-backed candidates went 0-2.
• Nevada - D won the senate race, R won the governor's race. I'm not sure how involved Trump was in those races. But another purple state that Trump lost in 2020 that he would need to flip.
• Pennsylvania - D won the governor's race in a landslide. A terrible D candidate beat Trump-backed Oz by 4 1/2 points. This was a particular indictment of Trump's ability to positively influence a potential swing state.
• Wisconsin - R Ron Johnson won by 1 point, underperforming polls that had him up by 3+ points. He was also an incumbent.
• Michigan - D Whitmer won by 11 points in a blowout, despite her terrible handling of Covid in that state.

Let's assume Trump loses the states that went 100% dem in 2022. That leaves GA (16), NV (6) and WI (10). That would bring his electoral vote total to 264, 6 short of the presidency.

So Trump needs to win 100% of the states he won in 2020, 100% of the swing states that demonstrated some ability to elect a R in 2022 and at least 1 more state.

Trump guys, walk me through the map. I know you have a clear idea of the path to victory in your mind, supported by facts and logic, so I'm excited to see it.

These days, nothing would surprise me. If Trump indeed runs, I would vote for him, simply due to his economic policies.

However, imo… the country would be better served if he (and the US) moved on from him. If he won back the job, chaos would again ensue. The “system” and the establishment (US & worldwide) will never be drained/corrected. It is, what it is.

I would prefer Desantis (or the like) to run. I love Trump for what he tried to do, but no human on earth can truly change what is in place, in regards to how the world operates.

I live a great life, and the more I stay in my world, the better. Work hard, be thankful, be kind hearted, good to others in need, and enjoy each day. Truthfully, all the fighting back/forth isn’t worth it. I’d be personal friends with many (even hardcore) TI Libs, if we knew and saw each other on a frequent basis.

 

[TigerRagRob]

@yoshi121374 you guys sure do have your crazies in check...​