Trump Path to Victory in 2024
- Thread starter scotchtiger
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Our resident libs never let facts get in the way of their story lines.
This was basically a poll of people who follow Elon, which tend to trend right. It would be more representative if it was a poll seen by all Twitter users in the US only. Don't get carried away and misinterpret the meaning behind the numbers.
what an odd worldview for someone who is part of the bootstrap party. wild to see such a bitch mentality from that group. is there anything conservatives take responsibility for? just keep saying party of personal responsibility and see if it sticks.
Your still stuck in that matrix left vs right and only think in small terms like just USA. Its way bigger. Establishment runs all the major corps around the world. They control governments around the world. The 5 biggest corps own almost everthing (Vanguard, Blackrock, State Street, etc). If you do your research you see each owns around 19% of everything. Its one big group. Also Most conservatives arent social conservatives like you like to claim. Even on the left there are many different types from liberals to communist. The same does apply to the right. You have your far right taliban types you also have other more moderate types like economic conservatives. I myself am center-right as Im a social-liberal and economic conservative. I also am a foreign policy conservative. Where are you on social-economic-foreign policy? I would wager you and I would agree on more social stuff than anything but not 100% agree...
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So we need more government regulation to reign in the power of corporations? Sounds like socialism to me
The government is run by those corps just like everything else schools,media,Hollywood etc......Thats who the establishment is.....
Reasonable. So with no sarcasm here, we should push for campaign finance reform?
Would be nice and term limits but the establishment wont allow it. They control both party's and we need more populist on the left and right to get elected to affect real change...
Also not all corps are owned and controlled by the establishment but most are just like all rich people arent also...
I agree on term limits. You get 2 years as a rep, 6 as a senator. Don't worry about elections, worry about issues
Predictably, this thread has become a shit show.
But to actually answer the question there’s a bunch of “a lot can happen in 2 years” and that’s true. But here’s what will definitely happen over the next 2 years: TX, GA, AZ, and NC will continue to get more blue.
Out of those, Texas is the furthest away and I think is still a couple cycles away from have a legit chance go Dem, so let’s take them out.
I think NC is still a bit out of reach for the Dems. Will be very tight but the Democratic voters moving into Charlotte and Raleigh haven’t yet been enough to outweigh the heavy military voting presence in NC, except for 2008.
Will the amount of blue moving into GA and AZ be enough to put them out of Trump’s reach? Not quite. They’ll still be very close. Out of the two I’d certainly say that Georgia has the best chance of flipping.
Trump has to swing back GA and then needs 2 out of MI, WI, and PA.
As I wrote in 2020, MI, WI, and PA are really, really the key for Trump. He needs to get at least 2 out of those 3 in just about any scenario.
There has only been one election cycle since 1988 where 2 out of those 3 states went red and that was 2016 when trump won all 3 and that hadn’t happened since 1984. The 2016 cycle is looking more and more like an anomaly.
Now if he can flip GA and PA and hold everywhere else then he’s at 270 on the money. But to your point, I find it unlikely he wins in PA. Ga, Wi, Mi seem to be his best path to victory.
FWIW I think the Republicans win in 2024 if they run an actual sane person but there don’t seem to be many of those left.
If DeSantis runs it could get interesting. He and Trump may cannibalize each other in the primaries which might pave the way for an actual Republican to get the nomination. I don’t think DeSantis will resonate nationally as well as Republicans think he will.
Same stuff they always run on. Lower taxes, less regulation, small government, etc. ideas that, in general, are still relatively popular. Especially when compared to the things that their base expects them to run on like national abortion bans and other generally unpopular platforms.
The consequence of term limits is the further concentration of power in the hands of the folks who stick around. Corporations and their lobbyist.
Public funding without significant structural reforms isn't going to solve any problems and will actually exacerbate existing inequalities. It will lead to lower turnout and a less informed electorate as well.
It's much bigger than this. The whole system needs to be reformed.
Need at least one more political party. Need to change the constitution so that corporations no longer are able to spend unlimited amounts of money on elections under the 1st amendment. Do away with independent expenditures in our elections entirely. And much more.
The whole system is broken and forces politicians to be beholden to corporate interests. But not in the way you are implying. A 5800 contribution from a corporate PAC to a congressperson or senator isn't driving policy decisions. But an IE funded with millions in contributions from oil and gas is.
Your 3rd paragraph is what I alluded to, though not clearly.
Fix campaign financing and you’ll improve the two party system without need to change the political system more deeply
Sorry man--but please show me where these devil corporations own 19% of everything. These are asset management firms--and their stake in the "19% of everything" is most certainly going to be less than 9.9999% in any individual asset (if we're talking about the corporations that I'm assuming you are claiming they control) in most cases (not to say that Blackrock, e.g., doesn't own above 10% in certain cases (as they do), but I'd bet they have very few investments in pubcos approaching 20%)). Investor relations departments of publicly traded corporations certainly listen to / engage with major shareholders such as those you listed, but the firms you cited are not hedge funds that have made a career of shareholder activism--and those firms that employ that strategy are generally just in it because a reputable activist can generally get a 10-20% price jump in a proxy contest and then exit a shit investment within 1-2 years--not to actual control anything long-term.
Republican OP trying to have serious conversation about electoral math/chances. Trump fans post memes.
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Nope. He lost. He repeatedly loses. He pretty much always loses. He's a loser, that what he does.
Until we secure election integrity, threads like this are meaningless. Said the same thing about pubs predicting a red wave.
As long as one side cheats, you can't predict election results.
As long as one side cheats, you can't predict election results.
looks like we've got a new maga poster
very excited for the brilliant insight he's going to provide
very excited for the brilliant insight he's going to provide
Hi buddy! Just so I know who I am dealing with, on a scale of 1-10, how severe would you say your TDS is?
1 - OMG the things he says! No amount of prosperity is worth it!
5 - He said inject yourself with bleach to treat covid! I *heard* it!
10 - I know it's for the best, but part of me wishes NK would have nuked the US just so Trump would get blamed.
Hello. You sound cordial and intelligent. Must be another of these MAGA posters I've been warned about.
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