From Jan '21 to Oct '21 we've increased by about 800k bpd. there was a major dip in Feb where we dropped to around 10m bpd, but for the most part all of '21 we averaged around 11.1-11.3mbpd production.
I doubt we'll increase by another 1m bpd in 2023, unfortunately our refineries are already at 95% capacity (the limit), and in addition to labor and service shortages, it takes about 6 months for a new top performance drilling rig to get set up. on top of these things a lack of capital and pressure from investors to boost returns are dampening output as well.
energy independence is tricky, especially in the US since our refineries aren't designed to process the kind of crude that we can extract in country. that's not to say that you can't use heavy crude refineries to use light crude to produce diesel/gas - it's just not efficient and drives margin down and costs up. if we had all light crude refineries we'd be kings of the gas/diesel world, but the US petrochemical industry would be hurt dramatically.
i didn't really answer question 3 because it really depends on what you mean by "energy independent." if you mean we don't import any crude oil, then no you'd likely need more than 15 mbpd to cover both petro chemical and gas/diesel needs. if you mean that we export more than we import, then we're already there. we attained that in 2019 and it hasn't changed since then. you could even argue that in 2021 we had our highest level of energy independence since the '40s when we didn't import anything.
i'm not sure of the exact % we'd be able to refine, but yes we don't have the ability to fully refine the US' needs for both the fuel and petrochemical industries. correction, we have the ability but they'd operate at margins unacceptable to the O&G industry.