So most states have ended their legislative sessions and the legalization of Marijuana is pretty much on the back burner for another year. A mixed bag for sure this year with Oklahoma, Arkansas, and South Dakota voting not to legalize. On the other side of that, Delaware and Minnesota became legal states, bringing the total of legal states up to 23.
There are only a couple of states to watch for the remainder of the year, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Pennsylvania's legislature is always in session AND there is a legalization bill in process there, note that their legislature is currently on Summer break until September. I HIGHLY doubt that anything comes of it, but it IS worth noting that the bill was co introduced by a Republican and a Dem this time around. Pennsylvania, like a lot of states, has a split legislature with the HoR belonging to the Dems by 1 seat and the Senate belonging to the Republicans by 6 seats. The governor of Pennsylvania is a Dem and has signaled willingness to sign a legalization bill. Legalization has passed in the HoR before, but dies in the Senate without a vote. Polls consistently show that around 66% of the population wants it legalized. Add in the fact Pennsylvania is increasingly surrounded by legal states and if Ohio legalizes later in the year (see below), only West Virginia (with a fairly robust medical marijuana program) will not be legal. Again, the Senate is historically set against it, and with the 4 year terms they serve, are traditionally not as concerned with voter opinions. I'd say the chances of success this year are about 20%... maybe a bit better.
Ohio has officially put the legalization issue on the ballot for the special election this fall as of yesterday. There was a soap opera of issues back and forth, but it's finally official. Normally, I'd be pretty skeptical of this bill passing given that only about 58% of adults in Ohio think it should be legal (Need > 50%). We've seen this year how a combination of off year (low turnout) elections and coordinated efforts by antilegalization forces can be very effective in voting these issues down. I'm actually pretty encouraged with this one though. As everyone knows, Ohio will be voting on abortion rights in this election as well, with an amendment protecting abortion rights in the state to be voted on. For or against, this issue is contentious and bound to bring out the vote on both sides. IMHO, given the poor showing of pro life issues in voting in Red states this year... I'd expect an all out full court press on this issue... ESPECIALLY from conservatives as yet another defeat in a Red State would look really bad. Essentially this will regulate the question of marijuana to the back burner for the conservatives. So in the end, I like the chances of it passing. Without this abortion vote, I'd say there'd be a < 50% chance of success. With it, I'm estimating > 65%.
Victory in either of the above states would bring the total of legal states to 24... still not a majority. BUT it would mean that over 1/2 of the US Population would be in legal states. That's SOMETHING, not huge IMHO, but it's one of those "tipping points". The bigger one will be when the state total hits 25 and 26. Conservative states are going to be conservative. Hell, there are still dry counties in the United States that don't sell alcohol:
blogs.sas.com
And alcohol has been legal for damn near 100 years (1933... 21st amendment canceled the 18th)
But I do think that when you start being able to say and most importantly SEE that the majority of states/people while being able to smoke marijuana haven't turned into hell holes/junkies where every kid is holding a joint and there are more wrecked cars than good ones... that's going to make an impression and we'll start seeing more states join in. And once you get to 30 or so states, THAT'S when you are going to see Federal change. Not before.
Anyway, looking forward to next year. That's a Presidential election year and this one seems to be gearing up for high turnout as well. That's good for marijuana overall as about 66% of the US population think weed should be legal. I'd LOVE to see repeats of the voting in South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Arkansas... We will see. Honestly, I don't see a lot of movement along the legalization front next year.. certainly not like the 4 or 5 states at the time we've see a couple of times before. If you are looking for likely states, the list is depressingly short:
Hawaii. This one is pretty much a slam dunk. Both legislative houses are Dems as well as the Governor. Both house and senate leaders are supportive as is the governor. The only reason Hawaii didn't legalize in 2023 is because of a dick measuring contest in the legislature. The leader of the HoR blocked the bill to study it more... but pledged to support it in 2024. Chance of success: 90%
Pennsylvania: See above. If it doesn't happen later in the year, expect another run next year. Unfortunately, you can expect the same results. However, with half the Pennsylvania Senate up for reelection and the support that legalization has in the population, that could change some votes. Chance of Sussecss: 50%
Florida: Florida is in the midst of approving a voter ballot on this issue. As usual, the state AG filed a protest that legalization violates the single subject rule. This worked last time this came up in 2020 in Florida and it's worked elsewhere (like Nebraska). I'd give the bill a 50/50 shot at getting past the conservative Florida Supreme Court. Even if it gets past, support in Florida is in the high 50/low 60 percentile. That would be good enough most places, but Florida requires 60% to pass. That's a lot to ask. Chance of success: 25%.
New Hampshire: Again, multiple legalization bills have gone to the Senate to die without a vote. The House and the Governor have said they would support legalization. It can't be ignored that NH is now an island of illegal weed in New England. While I'm not encouraged by the chance of success, they look stupider every year they don't... That tipping point mentioned above is certainly a factor (locally). Chance of success: 15%
Really, this is all I'm seeing next year, although I'll be the first one to say, I've little insight into most states. States of shame with no Marijuana options at all remains at 6 (Idaho (home sweet home), Wyoming, Nebraska, Indiana, Wisconsin, Indiana, and good ole South Carolina. Yay us!
There are only a couple of states to watch for the remainder of the year, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Pennsylvania's legislature is always in session AND there is a legalization bill in process there, note that their legislature is currently on Summer break until September. I HIGHLY doubt that anything comes of it, but it IS worth noting that the bill was co introduced by a Republican and a Dem this time around. Pennsylvania, like a lot of states, has a split legislature with the HoR belonging to the Dems by 1 seat and the Senate belonging to the Republicans by 6 seats. The governor of Pennsylvania is a Dem and has signaled willingness to sign a legalization bill. Legalization has passed in the HoR before, but dies in the Senate without a vote. Polls consistently show that around 66% of the population wants it legalized. Add in the fact Pennsylvania is increasingly surrounded by legal states and if Ohio legalizes later in the year (see below), only West Virginia (with a fairly robust medical marijuana program) will not be legal. Again, the Senate is historically set against it, and with the 4 year terms they serve, are traditionally not as concerned with voter opinions. I'd say the chances of success this year are about 20%... maybe a bit better.
Ohio has officially put the legalization issue on the ballot for the special election this fall as of yesterday. There was a soap opera of issues back and forth, but it's finally official. Normally, I'd be pretty skeptical of this bill passing given that only about 58% of adults in Ohio think it should be legal (Need > 50%). We've seen this year how a combination of off year (low turnout) elections and coordinated efforts by antilegalization forces can be very effective in voting these issues down. I'm actually pretty encouraged with this one though. As everyone knows, Ohio will be voting on abortion rights in this election as well, with an amendment protecting abortion rights in the state to be voted on. For or against, this issue is contentious and bound to bring out the vote on both sides. IMHO, given the poor showing of pro life issues in voting in Red states this year... I'd expect an all out full court press on this issue... ESPECIALLY from conservatives as yet another defeat in a Red State would look really bad. Essentially this will regulate the question of marijuana to the back burner for the conservatives. So in the end, I like the chances of it passing. Without this abortion vote, I'd say there'd be a < 50% chance of success. With it, I'm estimating > 65%.
Victory in either of the above states would bring the total of legal states to 24... still not a majority. BUT it would mean that over 1/2 of the US Population would be in legal states. That's SOMETHING, not huge IMHO, but it's one of those "tipping points". The bigger one will be when the state total hits 25 and 26. Conservative states are going to be conservative. Hell, there are still dry counties in the United States that don't sell alcohol:
Which counties in the US are still 'dry'?
We just had the big July 4th holiday weekend here in the US.
And alcohol has been legal for damn near 100 years (1933... 21st amendment canceled the 18th)
But I do think that when you start being able to say and most importantly SEE that the majority of states/people while being able to smoke marijuana haven't turned into hell holes/junkies where every kid is holding a joint and there are more wrecked cars than good ones... that's going to make an impression and we'll start seeing more states join in. And once you get to 30 or so states, THAT'S when you are going to see Federal change. Not before.
Anyway, looking forward to next year. That's a Presidential election year and this one seems to be gearing up for high turnout as well. That's good for marijuana overall as about 66% of the US population think weed should be legal. I'd LOVE to see repeats of the voting in South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Arkansas... We will see. Honestly, I don't see a lot of movement along the legalization front next year.. certainly not like the 4 or 5 states at the time we've see a couple of times before. If you are looking for likely states, the list is depressingly short:
Hawaii. This one is pretty much a slam dunk. Both legislative houses are Dems as well as the Governor. Both house and senate leaders are supportive as is the governor. The only reason Hawaii didn't legalize in 2023 is because of a dick measuring contest in the legislature. The leader of the HoR blocked the bill to study it more... but pledged to support it in 2024. Chance of success: 90%
Pennsylvania: See above. If it doesn't happen later in the year, expect another run next year. Unfortunately, you can expect the same results. However, with half the Pennsylvania Senate up for reelection and the support that legalization has in the population, that could change some votes. Chance of Sussecss: 50%
Florida: Florida is in the midst of approving a voter ballot on this issue. As usual, the state AG filed a protest that legalization violates the single subject rule. This worked last time this came up in 2020 in Florida and it's worked elsewhere (like Nebraska). I'd give the bill a 50/50 shot at getting past the conservative Florida Supreme Court. Even if it gets past, support in Florida is in the high 50/low 60 percentile. That would be good enough most places, but Florida requires 60% to pass. That's a lot to ask. Chance of success: 25%.
New Hampshire: Again, multiple legalization bills have gone to the Senate to die without a vote. The House and the Governor have said they would support legalization. It can't be ignored that NH is now an island of illegal weed in New England. While I'm not encouraged by the chance of success, they look stupider every year they don't... That tipping point mentioned above is certainly a factor (locally). Chance of success: 15%
Really, this is all I'm seeing next year, although I'll be the first one to say, I've little insight into most states. States of shame with no Marijuana options at all remains at 6 (Idaho (home sweet home), Wyoming, Nebraska, Indiana, Wisconsin, Indiana, and good ole South Carolina. Yay us!
