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My Thoughts (Long)

dbjork6317

The Jack Dunlap Club
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Dec 4, 2009
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“One team will do this better than the other 31, trust me. And it might as well be us…the team that handles this thing the best is going to have the best chance of winning that trophy.” – Anthony Lynn

Trigger Warning: This post will be discussing the various current events in our country. These are not political statements, but just dealing with the matter of fact that these things could have an impact on Clemson football and/or college football in general in 2020. There have been and will be many threads on this board to discuss and debate the political ramifications and validity of these issues – this is not one of those threads.

As for those “current events” I really felt Anthony Lynn said it best – the program that best navigates this extremely unique set of circumstances will be the program most likely to be left standing at the end of the year. This is not just football as usual and hasn’t been since about halfway through spring practice. Players spent the summer at home, having to train and workout and diet on their own. Coaches haven’t been able to visit recruits or formally host prospects on campus. These things have thrown the college football calendar into a tailspin and created a significant amount of uncertainty. But as always, a program must be able to fight through the distractions and focus on controlling the things it can control.

Over the last several years, the two programs that have done the best job with maintaining consistent discipline and avoiding distractions have been Clemson and Alabama. So its no wonder those programs account for 4 of the last 5 national championships, and its no wonder those programs sit 1 and 2 in the preseason poll. There’s simply no reason to believe that these two programs, these two head coaches, won’t once again prove out to be the very best in the country at handling any adversity that comes their way.

Clemson showed that this offseason. The Danny Pearman situation drew the ire of a public that was itching for a scape goat to crucify. Many, including myself, felt that Dabo should come out and directly address the issue and provide clarity on it and he did just that. I can tell you that Dabo quietly held a meeting with all of the seniors at his home during that week and invited feedback from them and listened to their personal experiences with racial issues. I firmly believe that had the players stated they felt Danny Pearman should be let go, Dabo would have done it. I also believe that had Dabo’s superiors asked him to let Danny go, he would have complied. Instead both the players and the administration put their trust in Dabo and let him make the decision and let him make the statement.

Dabo’s statement on the matter essentially put an end to it and the program moved on. Dabo has taken some of the seniors’ thoughts and made changes internally, including to the social media policy. Dabo has done this specifically so that his players can have a voice in a time when they need to be able to express it and a coach who has been among the most restrictive with regards to media access to his players has loosened his grip. He has entrusted the seniors and their leadership and I can promise the first player to say something stupid on social media won’t just have to deal with Dabo, he will feel the wrath of his teammates as well.

In other words, there’s a significant amount of accountability in the program, and that should come as no surprise to those of us who have followed it closely. Other than a frustrating week of silence following the Pearman incident becoming public knowledge, Dabo has handled this masterfully.

And it feels like once we kick off – once we finally spot the ball – many of these distractions will be in our rear view mirror. But we would be foolish to think that we are home free once the games start. There will be more distractions this season. There will be more issues that come up. There will eventually be a team that has an in-season breakout of Covid-19. Now the data has conclusively shown that players are very unlikely to be significantly affected by the virus, but a breakout would still be problematic and would have to be dealt with. We could see teams have to reschedule or even cancel games, we will likely have weeks where various star players have to sit out.

And what happens when there is inevitably another police shooting or otherwise divisive incident involving race? Again, just dealing with the matter of fact here that there may be an impetus among players to demonstrate or boycott or present some other form of protest that impact the game directly.

Long story short – we live in a time where cultural, social, and political tensions are as high as they’ve ever been and football players value their ability to express themselves on these issues more than ever before. Then you factor in Covid-19 and its almost certain that the rollercoaster that is 2020 doesn’t stop just because games start.

So which programs will navigate that most successfully? Which programs can survive if multiple starters have to go into Covid protocol? Which programs can remain disciplined and focused in the face of unprecedented (at least in the lifetime of these players) cultural division?

A lot of folks picked on Kirk Herbstreit for getting emotional the other day. And sure, that picture of him tearing up will get a lot of meme traction in the weeks to come, but the larger point that he was really making was that football is important because inside a locker room a group of individuals can overcome the division that exists outside of those walls and come together and form strong bonds with each other despite their differences. Things like race, religion, political affiliation don’t really matter inside the locker room. Togetherness is what matters. That’s the part I’m focused on from that segment, not his comments about race, not even really the emotions he showed, but rather the simple message that football, as always, is a wonderful vehicle for bringing young men together and helping them develop into people that can go forth in the world and create positive change..

And these players need football. Many of these guys come from difficult backgrounds and need the support and structure of a football team. Without going into specifics, I can tell you there were multiple players on our team that dealt with mental health issues and difficult family situations while they were home. One player nearly quit football altogether, and this was not at all Covid related. Had our players not come back for football, there would be some that would be in very difficult situations right now.

So football matters. Not just for entertainment or sport or the passion that we feel for it. It matters for the reasons that we all think fondly back on our days playing football, it matters for the reasons that we travel however far we need to in order to go back to Clemson and see a game in Death Valley. It matters because it creates bonds, relationships, meaningful moments, and helps improve lives.

So we’ve got 3 power 5 conferences playing, some good teams out there. Adversity, distractions, uncertainty has hit and will hit every single one of these teams. Which program is going to handle it better than all the rest? Why not Clemson?

On offense we boast the best quarterback and best running back in college football and there’s really not a good argument against that. In 2019 we were incredibly balanced, ranking in the top 25 in both rushing and passing and finishing 5th overall in total offense.

When you look at Etienne, Dixon, and of course the incoming Bowman, the offensive backfield is about as talented as it can be. We know that Dabo believes in rotating guys heavily and there’s not really any indication that that will change. Its almost too easy to forget about Mellusi and Dukes who are both talented guys in their own right, and Rencher has received a lot of praise for his performance throughout camp and obviously his role as a leader on this team and ambassador for Clemson cannot be understated. And with Lawrence emerging as a legitimate run threat late in the season last year, there’s a lot of reason to believe that our offense will beat the 240 YPG it achieved in 2019.

However there are concerns among the offensive line. I was really concerned about Jackson Carman being away from the program this summer, but he certainly has stayed disciplined and mature and looks like he’s completed the body transformation he so badly needed. I would anticipate him having a really, really good 2020 and starting to pop up more and more in mock drafts as the season goes on. I really like Bockhorst. Most of you loyal My Thoughts (Long) readers will know that I’ve been pretty high on him for a while. Athletic guy that brings it, loves to fight in the mud and be physical. So I feel pretty good about the left side of the line.

On the right side it gets a little trickier. Jordan McFadden was a surprise in 2019 and looked really good in a backup role over at left tackle. Making the transition to the other side isn’t always easy and I would anticipate some inconsistent play from him, especially early. But athletically his feet looked really good in pass protection last year and he does a nice job of using his long arms, but of course he is replacing a 3 year starter and so it would be natural for there to be a dip in production there. But our offensive lines have consistently gotten better over the course of the season every year - and with so many talented young guys this year may show the most pronounced improvement from the first game to the last yet.

At guard it looks like Will Putnam will be the man there. I don’t have a lot on Will Putnam, didn’t really watch him play a lot. We’re really going to need a couple of these true freshman to emerge as reliable players to provide depth and honestly to hopefully supplant Cade Stewart at center. Stewart just doesn’t have the athleticism required at this level and if one of these freshman can develop early in the year then we may be looking at a Kelly Bryant/Trevor Lawrence type of situation. Just based on high school and camp films, I’d think that Walker Parks is the primary candidate among the freshmen to be most ready to play on day one. I don’t know if they’ve moved him inside at all or not but if I were to bet on which freshman steps up, he’d be my odds on favorite.

And we quickly went from having maybe the best WR group in the country to not really having any proven, elite players at the position. That’s not a knock on Rodgers, who we know is an excellent player with explosive speed, but I wouldn’t call him an elite downfield receiver who can go win 50/50 balls.

We’re going to need another guy to step up, at least one. Ngata, Ladson, Powell, who’s going to be the guy that we can really stretch the defense with? Ngata and Ladson are very talented and Ladson particularly showed some flashes of that in 2019. Ngata was maybe a little disappointing last year primarily based on the amount of hype he received in the pre-season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he had a breakout year in 2020. But as we know he and Ladson missed a chunk of camp, so its probably a good thing we're starting with Wake and Citadel to help get those guys in the groove before facing more talented competition.

And after 4 years of really no tight end passing game, we finally have a really good, developed pass catcher at tight end that I think will greatly improve our ability to create mismatches and open up more of our intermediate passing game, which I felt was lacking last year. I would anticipate us really sticking to the 10 personnel this year but using Galloway to spread the defense, similarly to how we used Leggett in 2016. And Galloway might be a better blocker too.

I’d anticipate that at least early in the year defenses will aim to load the box and take away the run. Although they certainly respect Trevor’s arm, the lack of proven downfield receivers clearly makes our running game the number one threat that defenses must stop. Focus will be on Etienne until we can force them to focus elsewhere.

So with that in mind, and with some of the OL question marks, I’d say we’ll probably hold firm at about the 240 YPG mark in rushing, if for nothing else Etienne’s ability to very quickly churn out big runs. I would expect our passing numbers to actually improve as Ngata and/or Ladson improves and we get more opportunities down the field against defenses playing with a single safety. Obviously the X factor will be the OL group and their ability to protect long enough for us to stretch the defense vertically. We finished with 288 YPG passing a year ago, I’d look for that to be over 300 this year.

On defense, who knows what tricks Venables is going to pull out of his hat this year. Common sense says that we will move back to a more traditional 4-3 base defense this year with the influx of talent along the defensive line. But I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Venables keep some of the elements of that 3-3-5 style defense we ran a year ago as it consistently gave offenses trouble.

Unfortunately we won’t have a player of Isaiah Simmons’s caliber to use as a wild card this year. I like Mike Jones and he will be a good player, but he’s not Isaiah Simmons. I think it will be interesting to see how much playing time Trenton Simpson gets early, I’d imagine they’ll want to get him reps and bring him along so they can develop good depth there. Baylon Spector also had a very solid 2019 and I’d expect him to emerge as a fan favorite this year as he plays with great physicality. And of course Skalski is the de facto player of the year here and will almost certainly lead the team in tackles.

Like many of you I’m really excited to get a look at the new and improved defensive line. This feels a little like 2011 when we brought in that great group of WRs and we just couldn’t wait to see them in action. Pinckney is mr. steady here, experienced and talented. An athletic guy that plays low and gets penetration with his ability to get into gaps and slide off of blocks. Tyler Davis was impressive last year and figures to be improved in 2020.

The loss of Xavier Thomas hurts because he’s an elite athlete and a potentially deadly pass rusher. But I’m very excited about KJ Henry’s 2020 as he has gotten up to 260lbs and just seems ready to really take off and become the caliber of player we all anticipated he would eventually be. Justin Foster is incredibly dependable and a solid player. Don’t know what his situation is but he would be a loss especially early in the year.

Myles Murphy and Bryan Bresee figure to have a major impact early in the year as both are elite, elite prospects. Bresee in particular just seems to have a special aura about him and seems like the kind of guy who will have a Dexter Lawrence type of immediate impact. Football games are won in the trenches and how quickly our young guys on the offensive and defensive lines develop will play a significant role in our ability to close out 2020 better than we did 2019.

We stand to be in good position at corner this year as we’ve recruited very well there and the move of Derion Kendrick has been a success. I’ll be interested to see how much he’s improved his fundamentals this year as last year’s success was really a testament to his raw athleticism and his fierce competitive streak. In Japanese wrestling they talk a lot about the concept of a “fighting spirit” and Kendrick really encapsulates that. A guy who will fight you to the death. If he can become more disciplined and fundamentally sound, he’ll make some money at that position.

Unlike corner, we haven’t recruited so well at safety. The merits of Nolan Turner as a starter have been discussed ad nauseam on this board and I’ll just say he’s clearly a very reliable player who you can depend on to be in the right spot at the right time. But athletically he certainly gives up some ground when we play teams with good skill. We’ll see who else emerges there. Zanders is a guy who had 14 tackles last year as a freshman so one way or the other we’re going to depending on guys who don’t have many snaps under their belt.

Overall, Clemson is better than every team on its schedule. The toughest challenge just based on the rosters will be Notre Dame. Truthfully though, I don’t have a lot of respect or fear for Notre Dame in these big games. I’m sure they’ll be competitive with us but unless we play poorly, that’s a game we should certainly walk out of with a win.

In 2019 we finished 6th overall in total defense, and I would expect Clemson to stand pat as a top 10 defense. I’m not sure if we’re complete enough to really compete for that number 1 spot, but I’d anticipate us to be better against the run in 2020 and give up less than the 116 YPG we surrendered in 2019. I would also expect us to remain among the very best in scoring defense, which is the most important statistic in football.

Looking around the country, it will be interesting to see what happens with the Big 10. If I was an Ohio State fan I’d be absolutely ready to go burn down the commissioner’s house as the Buckeyes were pretty much a shoe in for the playoff this year. Its neat to see Harbaugh joining in on protests against his own president, showing he feels like he’s got the clout of a head coach that’s actually ever won something.

If you’re the Big 10 right now, you almost have to be hoping for some type of Covid related catastrophe. If the SEC, ACC, and Big 12 get through the season with little issue, the Big 10 will have even more egg on its face than it does right now.

And although I’m disappointed we won’t have a chance to beat South Carolina this year, I’m also very much looking forward to a lifetime of reminding them of the “forfeit” year.


But after the longest off season in the history of off seasons, Clemson football is finally upon us! Lettuce set aside our differences and come together for the common purpose that we’re all here for anyway and celebrate Clemson. I look forward to all of the terrible hot takes in the in game threads and the standard panic that will ensue anytime we win by less than 4 touchdowns.


Go Tigers!
 
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