The offense has cost Clemson a pair of games in the last 24 days. To Notre Dame while desperately trying to take the ball out of a reeling QBs hands. To South Carolina while desperately needing that same QB to make a play.
Our defense played well enough to win this game but it wasn't pretty. There were some scheme and matchups issues, but South Carolina deserves a tip of the cap for winning the 50/50 plays, making the gutsy conversions on fourth downs, and not making a mistake down the stretch. The defense gave us nine points, stole seven off the scoreboard in the endzone, and gave us chance after chance. Ultimately they did their job.
In the last two weeks, this offense has returned closer to its early-season form with an emphasis on two things: QB run and feeding the playmakers that this roster still boasts. After forcing a three-and-out, Clemson sets up shop from it's own six yard line to start this one the same way the Miami game ended. On the second drive of the game we go back to a favorite concept from last week, the pitch to the field opposite jet motion. Later countered with the QB keeper version. Last week our second drive revolved around that same 12 personnel formation. This week our second drive changeup was a 21 personnel split backfield that we went to on three consecutive plays with quite a bit of success. In terms of feeding our playmakers, I thought we did an okay job. Some of them just didn't hit. I know the overall usage of Shipley and Mafah will come up. I don't disagree that you'd have liked for them to have more touches but running into a loaded box the entire second half isn't a solution either. To those of you who still think screens are worthless, look at how this is drawn up into man coverage. Ngata is more open than Beaux. Same concept later in the drive, but we use motion to get Antonio towards the flats and how it opens up a window. My point being that the offense didn't stray from what its identity has become. I'm not unhappy with the offensive gamplan or playcalling. We continue to show new things each week while using previously successful plays/concepts as a counter. For the third week in a row, second-and-long is a QB draw - I'd be willing to bet the actual % in that down and distance would be north of 25%. But then again, look at the result in each clip: TD, third-and-one (converted), third-and-three (not converted), and a third-and-two (converted). The focus of this offense right now is respecting the chains and getting into favorable third down situations.
I made a whole point last week that "When you win third downs, you win the game" and as with most things in life, I was wrong. Offensively, 7/16 (44%) isn't bad and 3/13 (23%) from the defense is as good as it gets. Our average yardage to gain on third down was very manageable at 5.6. Starting with our first third down play call. Did it look similar? The difference is that Beaux runs this as if it's a smoke screen or a quick-in, not a slant. He doesn't get underneath the rub from Spector and it's almost catastrophic. Allen up the seam cleared it out perfectly. Second attempt of the game and watch how we adjust on the fly. They roll into zero coverage showing A gap blitz, we check into a hot play, and Shipley is even moved up in H-back positioning to help protect. DJ gets it out hot and this was a laser. Another nice design here where we show a variation of the bunch that had become a go-to formation in third-and-medium from Streeter during the middle of the season. It's just a double slants concept that we went back to a few times.
No OC/playcaller is going to bat .1000 but I really don't understand ours being a scapegoat to the fanbase. To go a step further on the late-game playcalling, I'll give my two cents on the final drive. First down we're on our own goal line looking at an eight man box but run it to get a little cushion. Second down isn't any better in terms of numbers in the box, but we go back to a play that had worked trying to attack the edge. Good idea. Frankly I'm more surprised it wasn't a QB draw given the success. Third down we know they're sticking in man coverage so we run a double move to our best guy and draw a penalty. Third-and-Zero. First down again and we get the big drop from EJ. Broke the first down run tendency and had him open. Call was good. Second down again isn't a QB draw, but instead the same hot call as a previous third down conversion. Into cover three DJ correctly throws to his hot read. That corner is bailing deep with the WR so the idea is your WR sells the fade to make the corner flip his hips, then pivot underneath while he's transitioning. I don't think it's asking too much of a second-year starting QB to throw the ball where your WR can catch it since it's coming at 100mph. Having said all that, I think Streeter would agree that in hindsight Shipley needed the ball there. Let your best player go get you into a manageable third down against a six man box with a safety blitzing post-snap. Third down again and you see Ngata and Briningstool on a switch which gets Ngata a step inside him, DJ makes a blitzer miss but sails the throw. The play call worked. I understand being upset and wanting to blame the adults involved, but we lost this game because our QB couldn't complete a pass. You've already seen some of the missed opportunities and there are a few more I'll circle back to at the end.
Don't want to talk about the "Down 14-0 in the Valley is a death sentence for the 99%." comment from last week's post either. It felt like we had a couple of real chances in the first half to land a knockout blow. Up 16-7 and getting the ball back after a safety, but Mafah fumbles on the return and sets up a short field. After the interception in the endzone, up 23-14 with a chance to run two minute offense knowing you'll get the ball to start the third quarter too. For a team who preaches winning the "Middle Eight", they had it set up perfectly but simply couldn't execute.
South Carolina came out of nowhere against Tennessee and I think it's important to establish some context of how that happened. Tennessee is one of the worst coverage units in the country, they don't particularly pressure opposing QBs, and they're not capable of setting the edge. Carolina countered with a physical run game using TE Jahiem Bell as a battering ram, a steady dose of jet sweep action to attack their horizontal weakness, and a steady dose of deep balls to attack their vertical weakness. A couple key pieces in information is understanding how they attacked deep. Using a lot of deep over/cross country routes that are common amongst pro-style offenses, and by attacking using switch routes on the outside. It was a fantastic plan from a much maligned offensive staff coming off an absolute nut cuttin' from Florida. The plan for us was the same as it was for Tennessee.
The first snap of the this possession shows a common look throughout the day that Carolina exploited - slot with a lot of cushion head up on a safety. Next series, here's the third-and-long. We're already seeing them implement a wrinkle from the Tennessee game by going into max protect with Adkins in the backfield playing security guard to slow down pressure. When Rattler has time to make the throw, he's got all the ability in the world. Cross country route off double play action, anyone? How about a 50/50 ball off a switch? Attacking the perimeter? The plan is the same from a week ago. Back to my point about 1v1 on safeties, they're not safe even in a bracket zone. Juice Wells, goodness what a player. On the long TD they start by ID-ing Simpson which tells them they have Mukuba on their best guy, a little shift into a stack to verify coverage, boom.
Simpson back at SAM changes our structure. Our standard 11 becomes more 4-3 than the 4-2 preference because Simpson is an overhang defender who's either crashing off the edge or dropping into shallow zone coverage. Even though he's back outside, he's still an inside player. We won't ask him to turn and run with a slot WR/TE the way we had been with Barrett, so in reality we lose the fifth DB. That's why having him transition inside was done. Carter is athletic enough to cover, so him being at SAM means we move freely between 3-3-5 with KJ as the edge LB, 4-2-5 with Carter in the nickel, or 4-3-4 with Carter in the box as an LB. 0 is the chess piece, like Simmons and O'Daniel before him. So if we're losing that extra DB, how are we coping? You've already watched three clips of Mukuba getting cooked. That's the alternative. Your corners are occupied so Mukuba, who worked at corner in the offseason, draws that assignment. With Simpson as the overhang, Carolina is counting on him being in the box so they'll happily attack the safety behind him. We desperately need a true nickel corner for this to work. Simpson moving inside gave Clemson more help with a thin secondary. Likely the main reason the position change made sense. Now the logical question is why didn't we get out of that structure? Because structure is more a function of your personnel. You can sub Mukuba if you think Woodaz, Donnelly, Covil, Phillips, or Pride fare any better. You can switch Barrett and Trenton, which did happen intermittently. We got beat out of man and zone looks so it wasn't like we sat in the same thing every play. You try to stay out of mismatches, but at some point you're just asking your best/most versatile DB to make a play for you as he's done plenty of times before (mostly last year, but still).
I thought we did some nice things on defense as well. Let's start with the pick six. Simpson is a heat seeking missile as soon as he sees motion and the entire defense shades to that side of the field, rolling Trotter right into the throw. Nate Wiggins had several good plays on the ball, showing improved physicality. KJ was arguably the best player on the field for either team with 11 tackles. Woodaz didn't play many snaps, but you knew when 17 was on the field.
Special teams matter. Two of the three turnovers for Clemson came on returns. The Carolina P might just be Ray Guy. The field position battle was huge. South Carolina's starting field position was their 32, ours was just shy of our own 20 yard line. They had four drives start at midfield or on Clemson's side of the 50 while we had only one such drive. In fact, Clemson started their first three drives of the game the same way it started the final two, inside their own 10. When it mattered, Kroeger and Co delivered.
We knew about Rattlers arm talent, but his pocket mobility was much better than I would've given him credit for. He eluded the free rusher several times. On the safety call, Ruke couldn't wrap him up. On the TD run he sidesteps Trotter and escapes Mascoll.
DJ wasn't sharp for much of the first half, but his second half performance is tough to stomach. If there was ever a good time to throw the RPO slant, this would've been it. We got nothing here, so anything other than underthrowing it into double coverage would've been better. Here we know we're getting man coverage and the pivot by EJ is likely an option route. In all three of the previous double slants clips the throw is designed to the outside WR, but I'm not asking too much of a P5 QB to see it when the inside slant is running free. South Carolina took the lead with just under 11 minutes to play and almost immediately DJ has a moment. It's as if I've seen him do that before when trailing and pressing to make a play. This was when I realized we're in grave danger. Defense gets a stop and this is how we answer. What are we looking at? What a difference a year makes. To play devil's advocate, I counted four drops - slants to EJ, Ngata, and Spector (clipped), and Mafah on the backwards pass (not clipped). At any rate, 8/29 for less than 100 yards is unacceptable. I think we're reaching a breaking point.
The immense potential DJ flashed in South Bend two years ago was briefly regained in Winston-Salem this past September, but DJ is who we thought he was. He's clearly improved from a year ago. Reaching 220+ passing four times this year, only twice a year ago. His TD passes and rushing production have more than doubled, the interceptions are tracking to be equal if not lower, and his completion % is nearly eight points higher. In totality it's been a bounce-back campaign. But in the last five games of the season he's thrown as many TDs as interceptions (five), and has looked much less composed as the entire offense has suddenly become turnover riddled (15 in the last five games) and inconsistent. DJ has taken us as far as he can. It's long been reported that he's intended to enter the NFL Draft after his December graduation but as his draft file circulates and he gets feedback from the league, I have to anticipate DJ electing to return to school. Keep in mind that he's yet to be unseated by Klubnik. I see it more likely than not that DJ is still Clemson's QB through spring practice.
If you told me in August that we'd be 10-2 with a chance to play for the ACC title, that would've sounded like a best case scenario. At that point in time, Klubnik clearly not being ready was kind of the indictment I needed to expect a putrid offense with an elite defense - a good, not great team. We spent the better part of two months seeing our expectations raised by the offense heating up and the notion that the defense would only get better. We've gotten used to Clemson peaking in November/December, not September/October. Losing late in the season sucks. Losing the home win streak sucks. Having it happen against Carolina only makes it sting that much worse.
They remember November and this one won't be a pleasant memory. It feels eerily similar to 2011 in that we start 8-0, can't close during the final stages of the regular season, and are somehow still given a chance to go play for an ACC crown. That '11 team went on to win the first ACC title in decades and set the stage for an incredible run. An ACC title still means something. Beating UNC and going to a NY6 bowl still means something. This Saturday we'll get a pair of teams reeling from November losses and we'll see which wounded dog has more fight.
Our defense played well enough to win this game but it wasn't pretty. There were some scheme and matchups issues, but South Carolina deserves a tip of the cap for winning the 50/50 plays, making the gutsy conversions on fourth downs, and not making a mistake down the stretch. The defense gave us nine points, stole seven off the scoreboard in the endzone, and gave us chance after chance. Ultimately they did their job.
In the last two weeks, this offense has returned closer to its early-season form with an emphasis on two things: QB run and feeding the playmakers that this roster still boasts. After forcing a three-and-out, Clemson sets up shop from it's own six yard line to start this one the same way the Miami game ended. On the second drive of the game we go back to a favorite concept from last week, the pitch to the field opposite jet motion. Later countered with the QB keeper version. Last week our second drive revolved around that same 12 personnel formation. This week our second drive changeup was a 21 personnel split backfield that we went to on three consecutive plays with quite a bit of success. In terms of feeding our playmakers, I thought we did an okay job. Some of them just didn't hit. I know the overall usage of Shipley and Mafah will come up. I don't disagree that you'd have liked for them to have more touches but running into a loaded box the entire second half isn't a solution either. To those of you who still think screens are worthless, look at how this is drawn up into man coverage. Ngata is more open than Beaux. Same concept later in the drive, but we use motion to get Antonio towards the flats and how it opens up a window. My point being that the offense didn't stray from what its identity has become. I'm not unhappy with the offensive gamplan or playcalling. We continue to show new things each week while using previously successful plays/concepts as a counter. For the third week in a row, second-and-long is a QB draw - I'd be willing to bet the actual % in that down and distance would be north of 25%. But then again, look at the result in each clip: TD, third-and-one (converted), third-and-three (not converted), and a third-and-two (converted). The focus of this offense right now is respecting the chains and getting into favorable third down situations.
I made a whole point last week that "When you win third downs, you win the game" and as with most things in life, I was wrong. Offensively, 7/16 (44%) isn't bad and 3/13 (23%) from the defense is as good as it gets. Our average yardage to gain on third down was very manageable at 5.6. Starting with our first third down play call. Did it look similar? The difference is that Beaux runs this as if it's a smoke screen or a quick-in, not a slant. He doesn't get underneath the rub from Spector and it's almost catastrophic. Allen up the seam cleared it out perfectly. Second attempt of the game and watch how we adjust on the fly. They roll into zero coverage showing A gap blitz, we check into a hot play, and Shipley is even moved up in H-back positioning to help protect. DJ gets it out hot and this was a laser. Another nice design here where we show a variation of the bunch that had become a go-to formation in third-and-medium from Streeter during the middle of the season. It's just a double slants concept that we went back to a few times.
No OC/playcaller is going to bat .1000 but I really don't understand ours being a scapegoat to the fanbase. To go a step further on the late-game playcalling, I'll give my two cents on the final drive. First down we're on our own goal line looking at an eight man box but run it to get a little cushion. Second down isn't any better in terms of numbers in the box, but we go back to a play that had worked trying to attack the edge. Good idea. Frankly I'm more surprised it wasn't a QB draw given the success. Third down we know they're sticking in man coverage so we run a double move to our best guy and draw a penalty. Third-and-Zero. First down again and we get the big drop from EJ. Broke the first down run tendency and had him open. Call was good. Second down again isn't a QB draw, but instead the same hot call as a previous third down conversion. Into cover three DJ correctly throws to his hot read. That corner is bailing deep with the WR so the idea is your WR sells the fade to make the corner flip his hips, then pivot underneath while he's transitioning. I don't think it's asking too much of a second-year starting QB to throw the ball where your WR can catch it since it's coming at 100mph. Having said all that, I think Streeter would agree that in hindsight Shipley needed the ball there. Let your best player go get you into a manageable third down against a six man box with a safety blitzing post-snap. Third down again and you see Ngata and Briningstool on a switch which gets Ngata a step inside him, DJ makes a blitzer miss but sails the throw. The play call worked. I understand being upset and wanting to blame the adults involved, but we lost this game because our QB couldn't complete a pass. You've already seen some of the missed opportunities and there are a few more I'll circle back to at the end.
Don't want to talk about the "Down 14-0 in the Valley is a death sentence for the 99%." comment from last week's post either. It felt like we had a couple of real chances in the first half to land a knockout blow. Up 16-7 and getting the ball back after a safety, but Mafah fumbles on the return and sets up a short field. After the interception in the endzone, up 23-14 with a chance to run two minute offense knowing you'll get the ball to start the third quarter too. For a team who preaches winning the "Middle Eight", they had it set up perfectly but simply couldn't execute.
South Carolina came out of nowhere against Tennessee and I think it's important to establish some context of how that happened. Tennessee is one of the worst coverage units in the country, they don't particularly pressure opposing QBs, and they're not capable of setting the edge. Carolina countered with a physical run game using TE Jahiem Bell as a battering ram, a steady dose of jet sweep action to attack their horizontal weakness, and a steady dose of deep balls to attack their vertical weakness. A couple key pieces in information is understanding how they attacked deep. Using a lot of deep over/cross country routes that are common amongst pro-style offenses, and by attacking using switch routes on the outside. It was a fantastic plan from a much maligned offensive staff coming off an absolute nut cuttin' from Florida. The plan for us was the same as it was for Tennessee.
The first snap of the this possession shows a common look throughout the day that Carolina exploited - slot with a lot of cushion head up on a safety. Next series, here's the third-and-long. We're already seeing them implement a wrinkle from the Tennessee game by going into max protect with Adkins in the backfield playing security guard to slow down pressure. When Rattler has time to make the throw, he's got all the ability in the world. Cross country route off double play action, anyone? How about a 50/50 ball off a switch? Attacking the perimeter? The plan is the same from a week ago. Back to my point about 1v1 on safeties, they're not safe even in a bracket zone. Juice Wells, goodness what a player. On the long TD they start by ID-ing Simpson which tells them they have Mukuba on their best guy, a little shift into a stack to verify coverage, boom.
Simpson back at SAM changes our structure. Our standard 11 becomes more 4-3 than the 4-2 preference because Simpson is an overhang defender who's either crashing off the edge or dropping into shallow zone coverage. Even though he's back outside, he's still an inside player. We won't ask him to turn and run with a slot WR/TE the way we had been with Barrett, so in reality we lose the fifth DB. That's why having him transition inside was done. Carter is athletic enough to cover, so him being at SAM means we move freely between 3-3-5 with KJ as the edge LB, 4-2-5 with Carter in the nickel, or 4-3-4 with Carter in the box as an LB. 0 is the chess piece, like Simmons and O'Daniel before him. So if we're losing that extra DB, how are we coping? You've already watched three clips of Mukuba getting cooked. That's the alternative. Your corners are occupied so Mukuba, who worked at corner in the offseason, draws that assignment. With Simpson as the overhang, Carolina is counting on him being in the box so they'll happily attack the safety behind him. We desperately need a true nickel corner for this to work. Simpson moving inside gave Clemson more help with a thin secondary. Likely the main reason the position change made sense. Now the logical question is why didn't we get out of that structure? Because structure is more a function of your personnel. You can sub Mukuba if you think Woodaz, Donnelly, Covil, Phillips, or Pride fare any better. You can switch Barrett and Trenton, which did happen intermittently. We got beat out of man and zone looks so it wasn't like we sat in the same thing every play. You try to stay out of mismatches, but at some point you're just asking your best/most versatile DB to make a play for you as he's done plenty of times before (mostly last year, but still).
I thought we did some nice things on defense as well. Let's start with the pick six. Simpson is a heat seeking missile as soon as he sees motion and the entire defense shades to that side of the field, rolling Trotter right into the throw. Nate Wiggins had several good plays on the ball, showing improved physicality. KJ was arguably the best player on the field for either team with 11 tackles. Woodaz didn't play many snaps, but you knew when 17 was on the field.
Special teams matter. Two of the three turnovers for Clemson came on returns. The Carolina P might just be Ray Guy. The field position battle was huge. South Carolina's starting field position was their 32, ours was just shy of our own 20 yard line. They had four drives start at midfield or on Clemson's side of the 50 while we had only one such drive. In fact, Clemson started their first three drives of the game the same way it started the final two, inside their own 10. When it mattered, Kroeger and Co delivered.
We knew about Rattlers arm talent, but his pocket mobility was much better than I would've given him credit for. He eluded the free rusher several times. On the safety call, Ruke couldn't wrap him up. On the TD run he sidesteps Trotter and escapes Mascoll.
DJ wasn't sharp for much of the first half, but his second half performance is tough to stomach. If there was ever a good time to throw the RPO slant, this would've been it. We got nothing here, so anything other than underthrowing it into double coverage would've been better. Here we know we're getting man coverage and the pivot by EJ is likely an option route. In all three of the previous double slants clips the throw is designed to the outside WR, but I'm not asking too much of a P5 QB to see it when the inside slant is running free. South Carolina took the lead with just under 11 minutes to play and almost immediately DJ has a moment. It's as if I've seen him do that before when trailing and pressing to make a play. This was when I realized we're in grave danger. Defense gets a stop and this is how we answer. What are we looking at? What a difference a year makes. To play devil's advocate, I counted four drops - slants to EJ, Ngata, and Spector (clipped), and Mafah on the backwards pass (not clipped). At any rate, 8/29 for less than 100 yards is unacceptable. I think we're reaching a breaking point.
The immense potential DJ flashed in South Bend two years ago was briefly regained in Winston-Salem this past September, but DJ is who we thought he was. He's clearly improved from a year ago. Reaching 220+ passing four times this year, only twice a year ago. His TD passes and rushing production have more than doubled, the interceptions are tracking to be equal if not lower, and his completion % is nearly eight points higher. In totality it's been a bounce-back campaign. But in the last five games of the season he's thrown as many TDs as interceptions (five), and has looked much less composed as the entire offense has suddenly become turnover riddled (15 in the last five games) and inconsistent. DJ has taken us as far as he can. It's long been reported that he's intended to enter the NFL Draft after his December graduation but as his draft file circulates and he gets feedback from the league, I have to anticipate DJ electing to return to school. Keep in mind that he's yet to be unseated by Klubnik. I see it more likely than not that DJ is still Clemson's QB through spring practice.
If you told me in August that we'd be 10-2 with a chance to play for the ACC title, that would've sounded like a best case scenario. At that point in time, Klubnik clearly not being ready was kind of the indictment I needed to expect a putrid offense with an elite defense - a good, not great team. We spent the better part of two months seeing our expectations raised by the offense heating up and the notion that the defense would only get better. We've gotten used to Clemson peaking in November/December, not September/October. Losing late in the season sucks. Losing the home win streak sucks. Having it happen against Carolina only makes it sting that much worse.
They remember November and this one won't be a pleasant memory. It feels eerily similar to 2011 in that we start 8-0, can't close during the final stages of the regular season, and are somehow still given a chance to go play for an ACC crown. That '11 team went on to win the first ACC title in decades and set the stage for an incredible run. An ACC title still means something. Beating UNC and going to a NY6 bowl still means something. This Saturday we'll get a pair of teams reeling from November losses and we'll see which wounded dog has more fight.
