Smoke 'em if you got 'em!!
Last year was a big success for the legalization crowd With New York, Virginia, New Mexico, and Connecticut all legalizing marijuana through their state legislatures. That was a pretty big deal IMHO, b/c all states that legalized weed before this had done so through voter lead initiatives. This brought the total number of "legal" states to 18 and that's starting to get within shouting distance of half of all states.
This year looks pretty good too, although I was hoping for a bit more action personally. Rhode Island legalized weed though its state legislature, but Delaware's bill that made it though the legislature was vetoed by their governor. A ton of other bills ... some for legalization, some for medical made it part way through, but ultimately died before becoming law. As expected, most of the progress is expected to come with with the elections where several states have legalized weed on the ballot.
Maryland: 95% plus chance of passage. Poles show nearly 70% of registered voters are in favor including majorities of Dems/Reps/Indies
Arkansas: < 90% chance of passage. While Arkansas poles show a clear majority support legalization, this is a solid Red State. Oddly enough, even though enough signatures were collected to put the issue on the ballot, the Board of Elections has refused to OK the measure (saying that the title and wordage is not clear). The issue is before the state supreme court. If the measure is allowed, I'd give it > 70%, but I'm not holding my breath. Personally, I'd bet on their conservative court simply not ruling on the issue and running out the clock.
South Dakota: 60% chance of passage. 2nd times the charm? Maybe. The 1st bill barely passed and then the state supreme court tossed the will of the voters. Honestly, I can see this going either way, but here's to hoping that that pissed off the voters of the state.
North Dakota: >50% chance of passage. The signatures are turned in, but no official ruling on whether there are enough or not. I'm assuming that there are enough signatures, but this one will be close.
Oklahoma: > 0% chance of passage (see update #7). the signatures are in and the folks collecting them claim that they turned in almost double the number needed. Poles show that a clear majority of Oklahomans want it, so I feel pretty good about this one.
UPDATE #4: Good News/Bad News out of Oklahoma. The Good: The Secretary of State's office confirmed that the signatures were enough to get the measure on the ballot. The Bad: There are still some steps that need to be done and the deadline for the ballots may happen before those steps are taken. I'm leaving the 70% chance as is b/c it's pretty likely that the powers that be in OK are going to have to "make it happen" b/c the signatures were turned in in time. But again, you have a deep red state where the Republican in power are out of step with the voters ON THIS ISSUE. For instance the current Governor said that the only reason that the medical bill passed by the voters happened is b/c they were "mislead". That seems odd to me since polls show that a strong majority approve of legalizing weed recreationally... If that's so then it's hard to believe how they were "mislead" by voting for medical.
UPDATE #3: Missouri: 95% (updated from update #5) Big News!! And it's good. I counted Missouri out. Totally my bad. Legalization groups turned in signatures this summer, but the Sec of State's office said that they didn't turn in enough signatures from certain districts. According to Thegatewaypundit, in yet another bombshell report, Deep State operatives rigged the signatures late on the last night so that there WERE enough signatures. This means that the measure IS going to be on the ballot in Missouri after all. According to SurveyUSA a solid majority of voters approve of legalization (62%) while there's not a ton of support for keeping it illegal (28%).
With the exception of ND, I don't think that any of these measures will fail if they get put in front of the voters. Hell, SC and ID would be legal states if the voters had a say. But we know how these things go. So I'm looking for 3/6 of the above to happen. Still that will put us at 22 States with totally legal access. We aren't QUITE there yet, but there will be a tipping point where even really conservative states are going to allow it. IF all the measures pass, that would put the number of legalized states at 25 (which means that half of all states would be legal zones... I think that would be a tipping point).
At the federal level, I don't see it happening. The legalization bill made it through the house, but I'm not seeing it making it through the Senate and even if it did... I'd say there's a 50% chance Biden would veto it.
Free the weed!!!
UPDATE #1: ND has officially placed legalization on the ballot for this fall. I'm leaving my chances of passing at 50% though. I actually went back and looked at the last measure they tried to pass in 2018. I recall it being pretty close, but the measure lost 41-59%. That's a lot more than a couple of percentage points. There's a lot more legalized states now and there's more momentum for sure... but that's a big gap to make up in just 4 years.
Update #2: Good News (Sort of) out of Arkansas. The State Supreme Court ruled that the measure was to be put on the ballot. That's the good. HOWEVER, they haven't ruled on the motion by the Election Commission's complaint. To be fair, they have a fairly quick turn around here:
-----------------------
First, the secretary of state will need to file a response to the petitioners’ original complaint by August 16. Petitioners will then have until August 23 to file a response brief. A subsequent respondents’ brief is due August 30. And finally, petitioner’s reply brief to that must come by September 2.
That takes the case schedule beyond the secretary of state’s August 25 deadline to certify amendments for the ballot to county officials, hence the need for the temporary injunction.
-- Marijuanamoment.net
--------------------------
But that does take things over the August 25th deadline to get things on the ballot. IF the court side with the legalization crowd, then the measure's results will count. IF they rule with the election board, then the results get thrown out. I'm taking away my < 50% prediction and leaving it at plain 50%. Again, this is a solid red state with a conservative court system. That generally doesn't bode well and they have Nebraska's court rejecting a measure on medical as well as SD court's doing the same for a passed ballot. So ignoring the will of the voters isn't setting a new president. If the court finds for the legalization crowd, I'll take my prediction up to 70%+ as a clear majority of voters want it legal.
Update #5: Missouri. So after the votes were counted and the Secretary of State's office said that there were enough votes to put the legalization question on the ballot, a woman filed a lawsuit saying that the Secretary of State's office cheated AND that the legalization question violated the single subject rule (Hence, my 70% prediciton). However, a judge threw the case out on a technicality b/c the woman in question could not prove that she was a Missouri resident. In addition, the judge ruled "for informational and supplimental purposes what he would have ruled if the case had gone forward" that the case would have been thrown out anyway. The question was within the bounds of single subject rules AND there was no evidence that the Secretaries' office cheated. Of course the lawyer's for the woman vowed to appeal, BUT the last day to make changes to the ballot is 9/13 (that's tommow). Upgrading the chances for Missouri to go legal to 95%.
Update #6: Good news out of Oklahoma a couple of days ago. The legalization question was cleared earlier for the ballot, but there were 4 filings with the Oklahoma Supreme court seeking to cause problems. Two of these were thrown out by the court on 9/16. AND while the court still has to rule on the other two, oddly enough, neither of these filings actually asks that the issue be removed from the ballot, only the wording changed. Even MORE oddly, these filings ask for the title of the legalization ballot question to be reverted to the very wording that the signature collectors used in the first place. The Secretary of State's offices recommended the current wording and the signature collectors agreed to the changes. Go figure. Anyway... wording aside, this one is going to be binding and will definitely be in front of the voters in 2022. Updating the % to legalize at 90%.
Update #7: Bad news out of Oklahoma. The state supreme court ruled that the legalization question won't be on the ballot, despite turning in almost twice the required signatures before the deadline. Apparently that doesn't matter if the state wants to delay it....
From the decision: “It is not clear that Petitioners have a right to put SQ820 on the ballot at the next election held throughout the state,” even despite having met all of the state’s regulatory requirements and timelines. Justices concluded: “The statutory process cannot guarantee the availability of a particular election. … [Therefore,] there is no way to mandate the inclusion of SQ820 on the November 2022 general election ballot.”
So even if you do everything you have to do to get a question on the ballot, if the state delays the process and people file enough lawsuits, it doesn't matter. Things were looking good there with over 60% of the voters indicating that they'd vote yes... but you can't count out Red states doing what it takes to delay the process.
Good news out of Arkansas. Their Supreme court put the question on the ballot. Here their ruling... we could only wish Oklahoma justices thought like this: “Respondents and Intervenors have not met their burden of proving that the ballot title is insufficient. … It is for the people — not this court — to exercise the right to amend the constitution, and our court must continue to preserve this first power of the people of Arkansas by not supplanting their decisions with ours.”
Last year was a big success for the legalization crowd With New York, Virginia, New Mexico, and Connecticut all legalizing marijuana through their state legislatures. That was a pretty big deal IMHO, b/c all states that legalized weed before this had done so through voter lead initiatives. This brought the total number of "legal" states to 18 and that's starting to get within shouting distance of half of all states.
This year looks pretty good too, although I was hoping for a bit more action personally. Rhode Island legalized weed though its state legislature, but Delaware's bill that made it though the legislature was vetoed by their governor. A ton of other bills ... some for legalization, some for medical made it part way through, but ultimately died before becoming law. As expected, most of the progress is expected to come with with the elections where several states have legalized weed on the ballot.
Maryland: 95% plus chance of passage. Poles show nearly 70% of registered voters are in favor including majorities of Dems/Reps/Indies
Arkansas: < 90% chance of passage. While Arkansas poles show a clear majority support legalization, this is a solid Red State. Oddly enough, even though enough signatures were collected to put the issue on the ballot, the Board of Elections has refused to OK the measure (saying that the title and wordage is not clear). The issue is before the state supreme court. If the measure is allowed, I'd give it > 70%, but I'm not holding my breath. Personally, I'd bet on their conservative court simply not ruling on the issue and running out the clock.
South Dakota: 60% chance of passage. 2nd times the charm? Maybe. The 1st bill barely passed and then the state supreme court tossed the will of the voters. Honestly, I can see this going either way, but here's to hoping that that pissed off the voters of the state.
North Dakota: >50% chance of passage. The signatures are turned in, but no official ruling on whether there are enough or not. I'm assuming that there are enough signatures, but this one will be close.
Oklahoma: > 0% chance of passage (see update #7). the signatures are in and the folks collecting them claim that they turned in almost double the number needed. Poles show that a clear majority of Oklahomans want it, so I feel pretty good about this one.
UPDATE #4: Good News/Bad News out of Oklahoma. The Good: The Secretary of State's office confirmed that the signatures were enough to get the measure on the ballot. The Bad: There are still some steps that need to be done and the deadline for the ballots may happen before those steps are taken. I'm leaving the 70% chance as is b/c it's pretty likely that the powers that be in OK are going to have to "make it happen" b/c the signatures were turned in in time. But again, you have a deep red state where the Republican in power are out of step with the voters ON THIS ISSUE. For instance the current Governor said that the only reason that the medical bill passed by the voters happened is b/c they were "mislead". That seems odd to me since polls show that a strong majority approve of legalizing weed recreationally... If that's so then it's hard to believe how they were "mislead" by voting for medical.
UPDATE #3: Missouri: 95% (updated from update #5) Big News!! And it's good. I counted Missouri out. Totally my bad. Legalization groups turned in signatures this summer, but the Sec of State's office said that they didn't turn in enough signatures from certain districts. According to Thegatewaypundit, in yet another bombshell report, Deep State operatives rigged the signatures late on the last night so that there WERE enough signatures. This means that the measure IS going to be on the ballot in Missouri after all. According to SurveyUSA a solid majority of voters approve of legalization (62%) while there's not a ton of support for keeping it illegal (28%).
With the exception of ND, I don't think that any of these measures will fail if they get put in front of the voters. Hell, SC and ID would be legal states if the voters had a say. But we know how these things go. So I'm looking for 3/6 of the above to happen. Still that will put us at 22 States with totally legal access. We aren't QUITE there yet, but there will be a tipping point where even really conservative states are going to allow it. IF all the measures pass, that would put the number of legalized states at 25 (which means that half of all states would be legal zones... I think that would be a tipping point).
At the federal level, I don't see it happening. The legalization bill made it through the house, but I'm not seeing it making it through the Senate and even if it did... I'd say there's a 50% chance Biden would veto it.
Free the weed!!!
UPDATE #1: ND has officially placed legalization on the ballot for this fall. I'm leaving my chances of passing at 50% though. I actually went back and looked at the last measure they tried to pass in 2018. I recall it being pretty close, but the measure lost 41-59%. That's a lot more than a couple of percentage points. There's a lot more legalized states now and there's more momentum for sure... but that's a big gap to make up in just 4 years.
Update #2: Good News (Sort of) out of Arkansas. The State Supreme Court ruled that the measure was to be put on the ballot. That's the good. HOWEVER, they haven't ruled on the motion by the Election Commission's complaint. To be fair, they have a fairly quick turn around here:
-----------------------
First, the secretary of state will need to file a response to the petitioners’ original complaint by August 16. Petitioners will then have until August 23 to file a response brief. A subsequent respondents’ brief is due August 30. And finally, petitioner’s reply brief to that must come by September 2.
That takes the case schedule beyond the secretary of state’s August 25 deadline to certify amendments for the ballot to county officials, hence the need for the temporary injunction.
-- Marijuanamoment.net
--------------------------
But that does take things over the August 25th deadline to get things on the ballot. IF the court side with the legalization crowd, then the measure's results will count. IF they rule with the election board, then the results get thrown out. I'm taking away my < 50% prediction and leaving it at plain 50%. Again, this is a solid red state with a conservative court system. That generally doesn't bode well and they have Nebraska's court rejecting a measure on medical as well as SD court's doing the same for a passed ballot. So ignoring the will of the voters isn't setting a new president. If the court finds for the legalization crowd, I'll take my prediction up to 70%+ as a clear majority of voters want it legal.
Update #5: Missouri. So after the votes were counted and the Secretary of State's office said that there were enough votes to put the legalization question on the ballot, a woman filed a lawsuit saying that the Secretary of State's office cheated AND that the legalization question violated the single subject rule (Hence, my 70% prediciton). However, a judge threw the case out on a technicality b/c the woman in question could not prove that she was a Missouri resident. In addition, the judge ruled "for informational and supplimental purposes what he would have ruled if the case had gone forward" that the case would have been thrown out anyway. The question was within the bounds of single subject rules AND there was no evidence that the Secretaries' office cheated. Of course the lawyer's for the woman vowed to appeal, BUT the last day to make changes to the ballot is 9/13 (that's tommow). Upgrading the chances for Missouri to go legal to 95%.
Update #6: Good news out of Oklahoma a couple of days ago. The legalization question was cleared earlier for the ballot, but there were 4 filings with the Oklahoma Supreme court seeking to cause problems. Two of these were thrown out by the court on 9/16. AND while the court still has to rule on the other two, oddly enough, neither of these filings actually asks that the issue be removed from the ballot, only the wording changed. Even MORE oddly, these filings ask for the title of the legalization ballot question to be reverted to the very wording that the signature collectors used in the first place. The Secretary of State's offices recommended the current wording and the signature collectors agreed to the changes. Go figure. Anyway... wording aside, this one is going to be binding and will definitely be in front of the voters in 2022. Updating the % to legalize at 90%.
Update #7: Bad news out of Oklahoma. The state supreme court ruled that the legalization question won't be on the ballot, despite turning in almost twice the required signatures before the deadline. Apparently that doesn't matter if the state wants to delay it....
From the decision: “It is not clear that Petitioners have a right to put SQ820 on the ballot at the next election held throughout the state,” even despite having met all of the state’s regulatory requirements and timelines. Justices concluded: “The statutory process cannot guarantee the availability of a particular election. … [Therefore,] there is no way to mandate the inclusion of SQ820 on the November 2022 general election ballot.”
So even if you do everything you have to do to get a question on the ballot, if the state delays the process and people file enough lawsuits, it doesn't matter. Things were looking good there with over 60% of the voters indicating that they'd vote yes... but you can't count out Red states doing what it takes to delay the process.
Good news out of Arkansas. Their Supreme court put the question on the ballot. Here their ruling... we could only wish Oklahoma justices thought like this: “Respondents and Intervenors have not met their burden of proving that the ballot title is insufficient. … It is for the people — not this court — to exercise the right to amend the constitution, and our court must continue to preserve this first power of the people of Arkansas by not supplanting their decisions with ours.”
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