There has been a lot of discussion on the board about why we are doing so poorly in securing transfers from the portal? Are they looking for immediate starting spots that we won't promise? Are we being out-bid? Are we getting the last visit when we should be getting the first visit? Is Pearman asleep in his office?
I have a bit of a different take that I feel like explains a lot. It starts with two observations- (1) relatively speaking, Clemson has not been greatly affected by defections TO the portal. (2) Dabo Swinney completely controls every aspect of his program. In other words, I think it's pretty unlikely that there are rogue boosters behind the scenes making deals to potential Clemson players. So how do these observations fit with the results we are seeing?
We know Dabo isn't a huge fan of the whole paying players system but at the same time, he knows it's here and he can't avoid it. What he can do, however, is be sure that the money goes to guys he has brought in and have earned it to an extent. He is being loyal to his players.
So what happens if suddenly a guy from Middle Tennessee wants to join the team? Dabo knows that his offensive linemen get around $25,000 per season in NIL benefits (I made up the number, I have no idea). But Georgia Tech is desperate and tells the player he can get $60,000 and is a lock to start. Dabo knows he can match this number but what happens to the rest of the team if he does so? All the other O-linemen find out and they are pissed. And there isn't enough money to pay them all that amount and even if there were, why would a program want to do that? That would mean a raise every time a new transfer joins the team- it's unsustainable even in the medium term. The only likely result is players who feel like they aren't being paid enough leave. There are few stars that you end up having to pay top dollar but also a lot of roster churn that makes it much harder to build a program. And once it starts, it's a self-perpetuating cycle- constantly having to bring in new transfers to replace the guys who transferred out. So Dabo says, "I'd love to have you here but we don't bid against desperate teams."
That's what I think is happening. Dabo knows what the 'pay-scale' is for his team and he refuses to mess with team chemistry by bringing in a transfer that would disrupt it. So players on the team feel well-treated, leading to few defections. Other schools, however, are plowing ahead with bidding wars for transfers, securing players yes but also alienating many members of their current team, causing those kids to leave.
If this hypothesis is right, Dabo is playing the long game as usual. I don't know if it will work but it's at least possible that eventually most programs realize outright bidding is unsustainable but have crashed and burned by that time.
I have a bit of a different take that I feel like explains a lot. It starts with two observations- (1) relatively speaking, Clemson has not been greatly affected by defections TO the portal. (2) Dabo Swinney completely controls every aspect of his program. In other words, I think it's pretty unlikely that there are rogue boosters behind the scenes making deals to potential Clemson players. So how do these observations fit with the results we are seeing?
We know Dabo isn't a huge fan of the whole paying players system but at the same time, he knows it's here and he can't avoid it. What he can do, however, is be sure that the money goes to guys he has brought in and have earned it to an extent. He is being loyal to his players.
So what happens if suddenly a guy from Middle Tennessee wants to join the team? Dabo knows that his offensive linemen get around $25,000 per season in NIL benefits (I made up the number, I have no idea). But Georgia Tech is desperate and tells the player he can get $60,000 and is a lock to start. Dabo knows he can match this number but what happens to the rest of the team if he does so? All the other O-linemen find out and they are pissed. And there isn't enough money to pay them all that amount and even if there were, why would a program want to do that? That would mean a raise every time a new transfer joins the team- it's unsustainable even in the medium term. The only likely result is players who feel like they aren't being paid enough leave. There are few stars that you end up having to pay top dollar but also a lot of roster churn that makes it much harder to build a program. And once it starts, it's a self-perpetuating cycle- constantly having to bring in new transfers to replace the guys who transferred out. So Dabo says, "I'd love to have you here but we don't bid against desperate teams."
That's what I think is happening. Dabo knows what the 'pay-scale' is for his team and he refuses to mess with team chemistry by bringing in a transfer that would disrupt it. So players on the team feel well-treated, leading to few defections. Other schools, however, are plowing ahead with bidding wars for transfers, securing players yes but also alienating many members of their current team, causing those kids to leave.
If this hypothesis is right, Dabo is playing the long game as usual. I don't know if it will work but it's at least possible that eventually most programs realize outright bidding is unsustainable but have crashed and burned by that time.
