For the benefit of the group could you please show the documentation you’re referring to where the cease fire would “give Russia everything it wanted without any capitulation”? I would like to see what the terms you’re referring to were.
All military aid to Ukraine paused
- Thread starter MTTiger19
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I guess we can agree to disagree on the start of WWIII. I understand your point, but disagree. Russia has nuclear weapons, they can not be discounted as irrelevant on the battlefield.
I don't think most Americans care to the settlement terms of the war. 1) They want an absolute 100% guarantee that our sons and daughters will not be sent to fight there 2) The war comes to an end as fast as possible and humans stop dying.
Thats what i think the MAJORITY of Americans care about. Trump made that crystal clear during his campaign. There was no ambiguity. He won in a landslide. So I strongly disagree when you claim Americans didn't understand. We understood very clearly and gave Trump a mandate to do exactly what he is doing. He is representing the will of the people, not the will of the deep state.
Not if the deal allows Russia to keep all of it's territory gains. My guess is Zelensky does not want to be the president who sold his country to the two highest bidders in the name of peace. Only to be left with 21st century of East and West Germany. Not to mention he has to run for reelection soon. (let's for the sake of staying on point assume the are fair and honest elections.)
There are many parts to this puzzle that go beyond pride. Diplomatic, Economic, Political, Military, Social, etc...
I have not seen this deal so anyone in the know feel free to share. Does it discuss...
Rebuilding of infrastructure
Prisoner Exchange
Return of citizens (adults or children)
Border security
Trade and Shipping Lanes
Port Access
or is this a Cease Fire along the lines of Gaza and Isreal.
Again, I can understand why many in Ukraine are hesitant to make a deal.
Another question. If we weren’t financing it what would happen?
Giving up parts of Donbas and crimea is nothing compared to losing another 500,000 people.
“Ukrainian crest” on his sweater. However, Moloch, who’s symbolism has allegedly been creatively intertwined into Ukraine’s crest, is a Canaanite god associated with child sacrifice in the Hebrew Bible. The Bible instructs Israelites not to worship Moloch. Furthermore, I have a bad feeling I know where a lot of the money went that Ukraine received from the United States. Please do your own research, and pray for discernment.
But whoso shall offend one of these little ones which believe in me, it were better for him that a millstone were hanged about his neck, and that he were drowned in the depth of the sea.— Matthew 18:6For there is nothing hid, which shall not be manifested; neither was any thing kept secret, but that it should come abroad.— Mark 4:22"
But whoso shall offend one of these little ones which believe in me, it were better for him that a millstone were hanged about his neck, and that he were drowned in the depth of the sea.— Matthew 18:6For there is nothing hid, which shall not be manifested; neither was any thing kept secret, but that it should come abroad.— Mark 4:22"
I think you know that I haven't seen any documentation, so got me I guess.
Have you heard anything being asked of Russia? Maybe I've missed it in my media bubble or something, but haven't even seen anything listed here either.
Zelensky has said he is willing to sign the deal. It was Trump who had a tantrum and kicked him out. We also have to be willing to offer Ukraine actual security guarantees
Do you think we should just give up parts of the US without fighting for it? Russia wants *all* of Ukraine
Sure, that's why they're a threat at all. I just think they know they'd be wiped off the earth so thats a far away possibility as a reaction. A true last resort.
But generally on the rest your first statement will have to be where we land. Agree to disagree. Thanks for doing it respectfully.
Not saying your wrong. But you might feel different if it was your homeland. Not being snarky. We are not in Ukraine's shoes. The French probably thought the Algerians and the Vietnamese would surrender at some point. The Russians thought the same of the Afghans. Not every civilization negotiates from the same value point. Mao was willing to sacrifice many as was Stalin.
There isn't a deal on the table to talk territory, security or anything of that nature. Yet. That's the cart before the horse. Heck a cease fire isn't being discussed with both parties in the room together.
Russia has said separately to us that they would be open to ending the conflict short of total takeover of ukraine... and i think they have expressed willingness to participate in a ceasefire. Ukraine hasn't expressed willingness for either. The trade deal was supposed to help pay you and me back for our help so far but more importantly it would establish the USA as having a strategic economic interest in Ukraine so that when Ukraine indicates it is willing to negotiate they have something in their hands. (we would also have an ingterest in re-arming them to protect our economic interest). The US talked this out with both the UK and France prior to zelensky showing up to sign the deal that he instead, nuked.
Lets say the US tells ukraine to completely fvck off and elects to stick with defending the current NATO footprint (e.g. Poland), what does ukraine have to negotiate with? Russia can just continue to grind it out.
The Ukrainian military has done their job. They have to be realistic about what they can hope to achieve in the short term though. It's become a war of attrition they aren't in a position to win.
A very good point, but I'd add that it applies to Russia's willingness to absorb losses here too.
And THAT is a very good point too. Ukraine is fighting an enemy who is willing to go on a war footing at the expense of domestic consumption (vlad isn't telling joe ruski that the best thing to do is go shopping) . Russia is producing 3x the munitions necessary for WWI style war of attrition that all of europe and the US can muster.... and they have many times more manpower resources that ukraine does. Ukraine is a middleweight trading bodyblows with a heavyweight. There is no haymaker that ukraine can land at this point. Rocky doesn't beat Apollo Creed in this movie.
No not at all. I’m genuinely curious as pretty much everything I’ve seen seems to talk about cease fire. I was just wondering if I had overlooked something. Obviously there’s more to it than a simple cease fire and I was hoping you could provide a little more context.
People do things all the time that do not make sense, esp to people that are not in the room. Lots of dynamics in this situation that we do not have insight into. For example, what does Z's support look like? Is Putin facing pressure from well-financed and heavily armed people within his own sphere? What's the current state of Russia's Army? Is the Russian economy starting to crack? Maybe Putin wants to save face and is pushing the pot from a place of weakness. The news coming out of Russia is so heavily filtered.
On a side note...
If y'all have not read Chris Voss' "Never Split the Difference" or seen any of his videos on YouTube, make time. He is a former FBI negotiator. He has some interesting insights into human psychology framed around low stakes and high stakes situations.
I can't. If more is being asked of Russia in all of this other than not killing more Ukrainians (which obviously should be the bare minimum), that being announced would have certainly assuaged some of my frustration. If it actually felt like a compromise, rather than a combined attack on Ukraine from US/Russia.
Where is this coming from...again no snark...
I am really curious what our intel network inside Russia looks like. We have been playing catch-up since early 9-11 days. I had four years of Russian Language, Semester in Russia, military and could not get much traction with State Dept in early oughts. If I had Farsi or Arabic though the yellow brick road was mine for the taking.
After the Ukraine repelled Russia's initial invasion, people questioned the state of Russia's military. Some argued it was overconfidence by the Russians. Other's say Putin was out of touch. That his General's had been lying to him about the state of Russian Readiness. They have had a talent drain since the late 90's. Add to that their war in Afghanistan. WWII, the Stalin Purges. They have been playing from behind the Goalies net for some time.
Maybe, Putin is not negotiating from strength but rather desperation. (we have not even discussed his health). They are already purchasing weapons from China and bodies from North Korea. Maybe Z knows more than we do... Doubt it, but would be kinda funny.
Hey I can't remember where i read the 3x part but i'm confident that it is more. But if you tell me differently from a base of knowledge then i'd defer to you. The US is depleting stockpiles to feed ukraine and I know our capability is bigger than europe's and that it would take a few years before the collective can overmatch russia+russia allies.
I don't think anyone is particularly "strong". Ukraine has done an amazing job with what they have had to work with and they have given the Russians a pasting, but now Russia has shifted to a war of attrition which Ukraine can't win.
But if both sides are dug in and determined to continue and given the status quo it's going to take a long time (years more? ) before both sides would reach exhaustion, so someone is going to have to force this thing to closure.
Also i think that it's true that Putin got bad military advice. IMHO he was hoping for a lightning war to simply counter our regime change in order to keep NATO out of Ukraine and to keep ukaine on friendly terms. That and to annex the Donbas and protect the ethinc Russians there ...and maybe grab some resource rich area for his trouble. I could have some of that wrong.. .but the breathless talk like he was going to march on Paris next on his way to New York City.. is pure crazy town.
We’ve given them over 150$ billion. We have done nothing but help them, against the will of most Americans. Saying that we are teaming up with Russia is misleading.
Agree with the last statements.
But also think the "protect the ethnic Russians there" thing is disingenuous. Personally. Like, there's nothing stopping them from moving to Russia right? Just feels like a convenient thing for them to say, but did they really need "protecting?"
No way you said that. You think blacks should move back to Africa. Whoa dude.
You didn’t mean that did you? That had to be a joke. You were starting to wear off on me.
If I am missing something that makes it a joke, feel free to fill me in. I do accept new information. What am I missing that makes me saying any Russians living in Ukraine could move to Russia is equivalent to saying the African slaves could move back in the 17/1800's? I wasn't aware ethnic Russians in Ukraine were in slavery, or that they were being oppressed. Sincerely, what am I missing? I know we've interacted more than once so its a bit ridiculous to me to respond that way, you 100% know that isn't what I was saying. I have no interest in that kind of back and forth. There are other libs on here willing to, so have at it with them.
Might be a bit of a stretch, a leap too far. Cannot say bridge because last atlas I checked there no bridges connecting America to Africa or Europe for that matter.
I might tend to agree w @UrHuckleberry that the ethnic card might be overplayed. But over played does not equate to not true. I know specifically two people that had family caught up in the region. I think both have Russian sympathies. It may have cost one his security clearance. Cannot be certain but I did have few interesting conversations with the Feds. But two does not equal 100k or 1 million.
To add, the ethnic card sure makes for nice moral justification because just saying we want those ports probably does not sound as good.
"protect the ethnic russians" ... I hear you. But if we open the aperture a bit... "ukraine" became part of the russian empire in the 18th century. Had a brief bout of independence after the 1917 revolution and then fell back under the USSR shortly thereafter until the dissolution of the USSR in 1991. So if you are a soviet/russian nationalist you could easily have the worldview that ALL of ukraine should be part of russia but ESPECIALLY an area that is russian speaking and ethnically tied. I know that there russia and ukraine had been fighting over the donbas since 2014 and i don't think either side was particularly gentlemenly.
Russia already had Sevastopol. So i dont think that this latest war was a port thing, but i could be wrong.
On a side note, any thought that removing some of the security walls(monitoring) around crypto-currency benefits Putin regime? It could make it easier for him and other Oligarchs to move funds or access resources long tied up in sanctions.
No source just something that crossed my mind.
No source just something that crossed my mind.
Right, I totally get that. I could see all that. I could even see how some Ukrainians may think they should be part of Russia, almost akin to the Crown loyalist in the American revolution (I am sure this is likely a bad analogy but first that came to mind lol). I am mainly pushing back on the idea that Russia had no choice but to invade to "protect" them etc. But maybe they are modern day slaves as seemed to be suggested and I just wasn't aware.
That is what I meant though, that unless I am missing something, which is possible, there was not enough there to use it as justification to invade a sovereign nation.
I think you are right. I was referring to the justification for the first annexation which I think they also tied to protecting Ethnic Russians.
Be careful here. Ukranians have their own language. They are quick to tell others as well. My first Russian Instructor was from Ukraine. Moved here in late 80s I believe. Did not want her sons going off to fight in Afghanistan. Pretty sure they were ethnically Jewish too. Made it easier to get a Visa.
I’m teasing you. But you understand those people may have lived there for hundreds of years and have homes, businesses, families etc. It’s crazy to say go back where you came from. That’s all I was saying - more as a joke. I think this is very complex and cooler heads prevail. Easier to have a cooler head when bullets aren’t flying and people aren’t dying.
For sure. I didn't mean to be flippant about it. I wouldn't want to move from where I'm at in SC due to all those things either (my family/career/friends etc are here). But if you are going to use it as a reason to roll tanks into another nation, as if they need protecting to that level, I am going to need more. Chinese American's being treated poorly during covid or something isn't an excuse for China to take over Chinatown in NY.
Basically, that one reason at least doesn't at all pass the sniff test to me, and feels like Russian propaganda to justify their actions. Open to being wrong on that.
On a side note, discussion got much more interesting once cooler heads prevailed.
Signing off for now...
Signing off for now...
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