All military aid to Ukraine paused

[ANEW]

Right, I totally get that. I could see all that. I could even see how some Ukrainians may think they should be part of Russia, almost akin to the Crown loyalist in the American revolution (I am sure this is likely a bad analogy but first that came to mind lol). I am mainly pushing back on the idea that Russia had no choice but to invade to "protect" them etc. But maybe they are modern day slaves as seemed to be suggested and I just wasn't aware.

That is what I meant though, that unless I am missing something, which is possible, there was not enough there to use it as justification to invade a sovereign nation.

No absolutely there is not justification. But hey you can add it to the convo just to muddy the waters and give you a justification that SOUNDS plausible. Also remember when you are talking about plausibiliy... that depends on the audience. That would sound 100% plausible domestically (inside russia). Externally it would sound like bullshit, but it's a reason either by itself or to add to other reasons bullshit or not

Russia didn't go into this thing expecting a multi year war of attrition. Putin believed that Ukraine was going to go hard in with the EU and the next step being NATO membership. Putin got good intel that the US admin was weak maybe even that POTUS was in mental decline. Previous experience after taking Crimea in 2014 was that they would face strong words and some sanctions but nothing that they couldn't survive and work their way out of eventually. Then he got bad intel on the state of readiness of his forces and their ability to execute a quick military action (a la the 1968 Prague Spring). And also bad intel on Ukraine's ability to resist and zelensky's willingness to stick it out and his ability to rally the troops and rally international support in time.

Zelensky can be corrupt as hell or not, he definately fvcked up his play with the US and Trump but the fact remains that he rose to the occasion and was a critical factor (unforseen by the russians ) in holding them off.

Just like an airplane accident, when you objectively look at things its never one thing that caused it its all things in combination.

edit: all this is IMHO.

 

[UrHuckleberry]

No absolutely there is not justification. But hey you can add it to the convo just to muddy the waters and give you a justification that SOUNDS plausible. Also remember when you are talking about plausibiliy... that depends on the audience. That would sound 100% plausible domestically (inside russia). Externally it would sound like bullshit, but it's a reason either by itself or to add to other reasons bullshit or not

Russia didn't go into this thing expecting a multi year war of attrition. Putin believed that Ukraine was going to go hard in with the EU and the next step being NATO membership. Putin got good intel that the US admin was weak maybe even that POTUS was in mental decline. Previous experience after taking Crimea in 2014 was that they would face strong words and some sanctions but nothing that they couldn't survive and work their way out of eventually. Then he got bad intel on the state of readiness of his forces and their ability to execute a quick military action (a la the 1968 Prague Spring). And also bad intel on Ukraine's ability to resist and zelensky's willingness to stick it out and his ability to rally the troops and rally international support in time.

Zelensky can be corrupt as hell or not, he definately fvcked up his play with the US and Trump but the fact remains that he rose to the occasion and was a critical factor (unforseen by the russians ) in holding them off.

Just like an airplane accident, when you objectively look at things its never one thing that caused it its all things in combination.

edit: all this is IMHO.

Got you. Think we are on the same page on all of that really. Other than maybe Zelensky. Think he was screwed there as soon as he didn't lie during the first administration. Supposed he could have kissed the ring more, but in fairness to him, it wasn't Trump's administration that had helped, and he has thanked the US repeatedly and publicly. He also has been consistent with his wartime wardrobe, and Elon was in a cabinet meeting in a similar outfit and a baseball cap, so feels like they were all just fired up to go at him from the start. No idea on how corrupt he is, wouldn't surprise me in that part of the world, but never hear specifics on that, just lobbed accusations.