Likely by Wednesday per the BBC. I understand Russias position. Ukraines military is strong enough to make this really bloody for the Russians. The markets aren’t ready to handle this and are gonna present some extreme volatility.
Russia very much needs Ukraine.
Historically, Russia has survived many invasions simply because the supply lines to Moscow were too long, and the invader’s soldiers either starved or froze to death. If Ukraine joins NATO, rather than under Finlandization and become neutral, Moscow is only a stone’s throw away.
Additionally, the land from Kyiv to Moscow is all farmland. From every other country, it’s either dense forest, mountains, or desert. Ukraine is the easiest path by which to invade Russia by land.
For Russia, Ukraine is a national security issue.
Russia very much needs Ukraine.
Historically, Russia has survived many invasions simply because the supply lines to Moscow were too long, and the invader’s soldiers either starved or froze to death. If Ukraine joins NATO, rather than under Finlandization and become neutral, Moscow is only a stone’s throw away.
Additionally, the land from Kyiv to Moscow is all farmland. From every other country, it’s either dense forest, mountains, or desert. Ukraine is the easiest path by which to invade Russia by land.
For Russia, Ukraine is a national security issue.