Coronavirus Graphs Showing Promise
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Where is the science behind a shelter in place? You can say it worked, but why is there zero scientific data prior to 2020 to support shelter in place?
The cornoavirus isn’t relevant. There should be plenty of science to support shelter in place. All i could find was a kids science fair project.
The science is that the virus spreads through person-to-person contact. The less person-to-person contact you have the less the virus will spread. That does not seem too hard to comprehend. I hate to defend this because I am 100% for speeding up re-openings but given what we were being told by medical professionals regarding hitting capacity limits on hospitals, it was the approach that had to be taken. But, the objective was to flatten the curve, manage capacity, ramp up testing and speed up antivirals/vaccines. All of that is in the process of being accomplished.
So what you’re saying is it’s an assumption not based on science? It was a rhetorical question. There isn’t any scientific data to support shelter in place. Ironically the data on coronavirus has shown no correlation between shelter in place and outbreaks....
So we have data that discredits shelter in place and no data to support it. What reason should I reject science and trust shelter in place?
Yes, things are definitely moving in the right direction. Saw some graphs this morning, TN & GA are not getting better. Same graphs indicated that NC and SC are doing something right or are extremely lucky. Also, South Korea has been aggressive and effective on testing, tracing, and mitigating; US will have difficulty with this culturally adverse strategy.
I've gotten to the point where I am terrified anytime someone types or utters "the science says..."
All that predicates on the assumption that the science is correct and not politically skewed in one way or another. I'll hang up and wait for someone to show me an example when it wasn't in recent years. The science shows an unborn life is a baby but people still favor abortion at anytime on demand. I have observed that "the science says" is just a convenient starting point for us achieving our desired goals. No thank you.
All that predicates on the assumption that the science is correct and not politically skewed in one way or another. I'll hang up and wait for someone to show me an example when it wasn't in recent years. The science shows an unborn life is a baby but people still favor abortion at anytime on demand. I have observed that "the science says" is just a convenient starting point for us achieving our desired goals. No thank you.
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All lockdowns are not the same, there are varying degrees. Let's just assume for a minute that the data from China is remotely accurate. China did arguably the strictest lockdowns with real enforcement, forced quarantines, testing, and contact tracing. Let's compare that to other countries who may have issued a shelter-in-place but there was no real enforcement. Based on time restrict the spread on the virus the Chinese version was more effective.
Comparing the lockdowns in high density places like New York and parts of California to low density places like Alabama or South Carolina is really not a very scientific comparison. I think it is fair to say that if you took two cities with similar densities and environments and on one you had no lockdown and the other you had a Chinese style lockdown I think with fairly strong conviction the city on lockdown will do better from a health perspective. This is not to say it is the right move as you have to weigh your actions with the economic and other health related unintended consequences. Not all locations need the same level of response give different environmental and density factors. But it simply comes down to the point in a previous post that if it is correct that the only way to spread a virus through person-to-person contact the less contact you have the less the virus will spread.
You keep saying a lot when it doesn’t require it. Please link any academic study that supports shelter-in-place. There should be plenty of science on this topic prior to coronavirus.
I’ve tried looking and can only find where Bush back in 06 had people look into it and a teens science fair project.
Please show me a peer reviewed academic study showing that shelter-in-place is not effective in controlling the spread of a communicable disease.
Lol that’s my point. No science justifies shelter in place, but you want the scientific burden to be on the people who aren’t asking for radical policies....
I’ll reference current shelter-in-place data for coronavirus. So far there is no correlation between shelter in place and lives saved. Of reference more data but this new theory started in 2020.
“Denmark's State Serum Institute doesn't understand why there aren't more covid-19 infections after reopening of country -- gives green light to further opening”
All the dems need to do is flip (mail-in voting) a couple of states that Trump won, say PA, Mich, Ohio, NC, then we're looking at Pres. Biden.
That is useless as they come to no conclusions. They are asking why there are not more infections, not why it went away. I have no problem with the belief that shelter-in-place was not necessary in all locations and that the objective is not to completely eliminate the disease. That could only be done if everyone sheltered in place for 14 days and had no physical contact which is completely impractical.
Oh, and here is your study:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...rs-study-drawing-on-cdc-data-shows-2020-05-04
https://www.nber.org/papers/w27091.pdf?mod=article_inline
you posted 2 links about covid-19. Do you not find it odd that there is no data prior to this virus on shelter in place?
I attached a NYTimes article tracing the history of shelter-in-place. My one quote from it will sound like I made it up...
“The idea has been around for centuries. But it took a high school science fair, George W. Bush, history lessons and some determined researchers to overcome skepticism and make it federal policy.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/politics/social-distancing-coronavirus.html
second link is 2017 after CDC finished their review and updated guidelines.
“Personal protective measures reserved for pandemics include voluntary home quarantine of exposed household members and use of face masks in community settings when ill. Community NPIs might include temporary closures or dismissals of child care facilities and schools with students in grades kindergarten through 12 (K–12), as well as other social distancing measures that increase the physical space between people (e.g., workplace measures such as replacing in-person meetings with teleconferences or modifying, postponing, or cancelling mass gatherings) ”
CDC never specifically states any shelter-in-place nor does it imply that it’s a valid option. I guess it classifies as “other social distancing measures.”
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/66/rr/rr6601a1.htm
Lol, I love how they can't even predict the correct strains of Flu from year to year, but they expect us to believe them when they predict a relatively unknown viruses return...rigghhht..
This. It's not hard to understand and very reasonable this could happen.
Eventually, when one side changes the Rules enough to fit their narrative (outcome) - that's what is going to happen here.
tell me about all the pandemics we tried shelter in place for? how would there be tons of data for it? maybe that was what the pandemic response team was working on when trump disband them?
what people do not understand is the data from this will not be properly counted for months, maybe years. Very few places with population above ~50,000 have the resources or infrastructure in place to get the data correlated quickly enough. people bash models made about a novel virus that we had chinese misinformation about for a few weeks or a couple months at best
It shouldn’t be hard to find academic journals showing that shelter in place is a viable solution. The issue is they don’t exist.
I find it alarming people are still defending something that doesn’t have any science to back it. Sweden’s epidemiologist said in an interview there was no science behind shelter in place. I started looking for the science and can’t find it. If you have links to support this I’d gladly read it.
"what people do not understand is the data from this will not be properly counted for months, maybe years. Very few places with population above ~50,000 have the resources or infrastructure in place to get the data correlated quickly enough. people bash models made about a novel virus that we had chinese misinformation about for a few weeks or a couple months at best[/QUOTE]"
I think this quote sums up why so many are aggravated. How can some models ( the ones used to dictate shutdowns) be suitable to use and others not....
Regardless of what side someone is on, you can pick which models you choose to make your point.
They all appear to be unreliable in one way or another.
What seems to be easier to follow though....the unemployment rate, and debt racking up.
I am not a conspiracy guy, but I do think there was a massive overreaction. And will continue to be.
If Model A is used and we are shutting down in hopes of "flattening the curve"....well when the curve is flattening then Model A seems to no longer be relevant and we move to Model B.
Frustrating times for all.
I think this quote sums up why so many are aggravated. How can some models ( the ones used to dictate shutdowns) be suitable to use and others not....
Regardless of what side someone is on, you can pick which models you choose to make your point.
They all appear to be unreliable in one way or another.
What seems to be easier to follow though....the unemployment rate, and debt racking up.
I am not a conspiracy guy, but I do think there was a massive overreaction. And will continue to be.
If Model A is used and we are shutting down in hopes of "flattening the curve"....well when the curve is flattening then Model A seems to no longer be relevant and we move to Model B.
Frustrating times for all.
You are making yourself look like your avatar. Common sense alone will tell you that if a disease is communicable that the less interaction people have with each other the less the disease would spread. Do you need a study to tell you how to stop the transmission of an STD?
The CDC study proves this despite your willingness to dismiss is since it is based on COVID-19 data, which would make it pretty applicable to the current situation. I guess you did not like that it was done after the current measures were put in place, but based on your logic you must be for shelter-in-place in the future now that you have been provided a study that proves its effectiveness.
How's that "it's just the flu" working out for you? About to cross 100k deaths in the US with 6 weeks of being quarantined....sounds just like the flu to me, DA.
Common sense, which there seems to be very little of around here, shows that the less people you're around, the less people that you have the chance to infect. I know that's probably rocket science to people like you, but it's pretty simple actually. Do you have a better chance of winning the lottery if you don't buy a ticket, or if you buy 1000?
If you're under 80 you have a ridiculously high chance of survival or even getting it.
You can say that I am discounting the lives of the elderly if you choose, that's fine. You don't shut everything down over this though.
Prisons, Retirement & Long Term Care facilities are natural "Shelter In-Place" environments.
Closed today. Enjoy paying 15 years longer than we will be. Well, actually probably going to pay ours off in 5 years, but maybe you can refinance again for a 30 yr mortgage in 5 years. Just curious, at your age what sense does it make to start a 30 yr mortgage?
And unfortunately it's going to be far more than 100k....and a helluva lot more than the 62,000 from the flu that you kept comparing it to. And imagine what that number would have been if they hadn't shut the country down.
Here's the early results for all y'all smoking what Sweden was smoking and claiming that they were doing it the right way:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/health/sweden-herd-immunity-coronavirus-intl/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/health/sweden-herd-immunity-coronavirus-intl/index.html
Engineers worked for me before I sold my company. I enjoyed them as my employees, smart folks.
That's great. When did you get out of the train business? Guess you went from shoveling coal to shoveling the %^$ you spew on here.
What a conceited loser. What’s it’s like being a liberal who wants the world shut down?
Yeah, let's look at that statement:
First, you jumped in to defend quite possibly the most conceited dickhead on this board.
Second, you were one of the very first on here to say that the coronavirus was just the flu. Then, when you realized how wrong you were, you did a 180 to save face but switched to complaining about social distancing.
Finally, I do not want the world shut down. I want people to be safe. Unfortunately, there's far too many idiots out there like you that took this thing lightly and were outspoken in spreading that kind of theme. Now, I just try not to miss an opportunity to point out how stupid you, Cocksuckernumber1, and jimbobcooter were.
Save face haha! I couldn’t care less about saving face on a message board. I know very few people on here, and could not care any less about what anyone on your thinks of my opinions.
How do I take it lightly? Do you follow me around in public? Do you see how often I go out in public?
It was obvious from your original posts about how it was nothing more than the flu that you took it lightly.
Another update just to give people a reference to some real numbers in Atlanta, as of 5/26 Emory as of yesterday has 31 Covid patients in ICU. Continued decrease in the severe cases of Covid seen by Emory. This may or may not reflect all the major hospital systems in Atlanta.
