Coronavirus task force wrapping up...
- Thread starter TigerEE91
- Start date
So we comparing New York to the rest of the country now? Man I hate the msm.
The WCCP virus is bad...but the media, especially the lovely NYT will do it's best to keep the flames burning no matter what...
We done with that virus here in Georgia....
the amount of testing has gone up infinitely in other areas... that is a large part about why the cases have increased
Based on the reporting I have seen the task force was set up to inform the President and others for the daily briefings, which are also ending. Supposedly Fauci was in favor of this so he could focus on other things related to the virus than constant meetings. I don't think it will change how the feds actually approach their response in the sense they will still continue to do what they are doing.
I really got the feeling these so called experts were making this up as we went along. That group was a walking talking contradiction.
Testing is woefully inadequate- both for the disease and the antibody. From what I've read and heard, needs to be at least 5 million a day. Solve that and safely opening up can be targeted. Problem is that someone of considerable influence who insists he's done a bang-up job doesn't want to know the results and more importantly, doesn't want you to know.
So...... After 70,000+ deaths in the US over the past 2 months DESPITE 6+ weeks of social distancing and closing of non-essential businesses we still are convinced that there is nothing to this virus. Ok, seems reasonable to me.
The antibody test is actually available at every Doctors Care (and other urgent care centers) nationwide.
You're welcome to stay inside for as long as you'd like. Enjoy being a hermit.
I'm asking because I really don't know, but are there people who need a test who can't get one like it was a few months ago? There are a few drive through testing centers where I live and I have yet to see anyone there on a regular basis. I realize where I live is only anecdotal, but I also don't see reports of people with symptoms who can't get a test.
Where did I say that? I'm going to my office each day to work, going to the grocery store/ Lowes/whatever other store I need to go to, playing golf a couple of times a week, getting together with people around the fire pit in the evenings, etc. But I'm trying to be smart about it, still keeping a good distance away from people, wearing a mask in places I cant, avoiding face to face meetings.
My entire point was just that this wasnt "fake news" and something the "manstream media made up to get Trump" or a hoax or whatever the current narrative is today.
We done with that virus here in Georgia....
That is encouraging, and must be why Trump is now claiming that he never criticized Kemp for reopening early (which he did of course, on camera).
Not throwing a stone at you, but I don't understand the testing thing. Why do we need to test everyone knowing that I could test negative and an hour later get the virus. Should we test everyone every day?
I think the issue with testing is way over blown in my humble opinion.
He didn't criticize him. He said he disagreed but that he respected his decision.
its a farce and media hype job......while testing is a good thing, unless you are testing people every single day there isn't much help. its a straw man argument and doesn't change the fact that you should social distance as much as possible, wash your hands more often and wear a mask or better yet, stay home if you don't feel well.
Time to adapt and get back to work or the consequences of the virus will fall well short of what another great depression would do to the world. People in the news demanding the stay at home orders continue better have their mortality models for a depression ready to go.
If you have a good idea who has the virus, the idea is you can keep them home so they don’t spread it.
But everyone doesn’t have to stay home.
I guess the other school of thought is everyone goes out and we see what happens
I'd like to see you and the Don meet at Wachovia. Wouldn't go well for you.
The antibody test is a blood draw. The blood is screened for both active virus and antibodies. Seven members of my family just had the test at Coastal Labs in Murrells Inlet yesterday. Should have the results in 48 hours. They were all in NYC the second week of March. None of them have had any symptoms. Insurance covered the test. Not disputing that there are test shortages in certain areas of the country but you can get a test same day here on the coast.
I just dont see how more testing is a farce. You want to know who has it so you can isolate them and allow everyone else to come out of isolation. This is particularly true with a virus like this where a high percentage of people have it never even show symptoms. If they knew they had it, most reasonable people would isolate themselves to protect their families and friends, particularly older people and people with other health issues.
If you want to reopen schools, shouldn't you test all of the students and teachers before they come back? Same with big industry, or any other business that puts large numbers of people in close proximity. Ongoing testing is also going to be necessary, as is testing of people in contact with another person that tests positive or has symptoms.
Its just like wearing a mask in public, its a tool to help open everything up quicker without having major outbreaks start up again. The pushback to this just blows my mind.
If you want to reopen schools, shouldn't you test all of the students and teachers before they come back? Same with big industry, or any other business that puts large numbers of people in close proximity. Ongoing testing is also going to be necessary, as is testing of people in contact with another person that tests positive or has symptoms.
Its just like wearing a mask in public, its a tool to help open everything up quicker without having major outbreaks start up again. The pushback to this just blows my mind.
this could not be further from the truth. there is essential data that needs to be collected and analyzed before they can say it's safe to reopen. this is trump's biggest failure here. people can talk about being late to lockdown, or whatever, but the thing that is killing consumer confidence more than anything is not having a plan to reopen. there is no structured plan or organized testing effort to get us back to 'normal'. we're just hoping and praying we can manage through mitigation efforts. what we need is a plan with antibody testing to understand immunity (risk) and a plan tiered plan to open up and a way to keep those that are at higher risk safe.
i am 100% with the idea we need to get out of this holding pattern, and the only way that will happen safely is to understand this thing a bit better. there are definitely things we know now that we didnt weeks ago, but antibody testing will not need to be done every day to get a decent model. the thing that has been ripped most is how far off the models are, but changing one or two factors for an exponential model with almost no real life data can make it a totally different equation and change the graphs wildly.
The pushback is because our central planners told us not to wear them. They now tell us to wear them. If they want to be taken credible they shouldn’t have lied about mask earlier.
Or, we have figured out that tons of people are going to die no matter what we do, and they were always going to die no matter what we did.
Just like
Pneumonia
Flu
Cancer
Heart Disease
Obesity related Deaths
Essentially.....everyday life
Essentially we are rolling with the Swedish model here very soon.
Our President told us this was under control and would magically just go away soon. Should we not take him seriously because of it? Information changes and so do recommendations. As I said, if masks make it easier for us to get businesses back open then we should all do it. Just my opinion though.
I also thought much of the advice not to wear masks in public was related to saving them for first responders/medical personnel dealing with the infected. I could be wrong though but that is what I remember
I also thought much of the advice not to wear masks in public was related to saving them for first responders/medical personnel dealing with the infected. I could be wrong though but that is what I remember
that definitely sounds like donald trump
he's a 73 year old obese spray tan barbie. I'd take my chances
Increasing testing is clearly something that has to be done, but production capacity is going to be an issue getting to even 5 million a day anytime soon. Trump can only do so much to ramp up private industry production. While the knee jerk response is to use the Defense Production Act, that is a slippery slope. The fact is, the world needs more tests and world-wide production is and will be severely limited to meet demand and needs. We are just going to have to live with that reality for quite some time. Random testing and certain mandatory testing would work, but there are going to be some serious concerns with the 4th amendment there. You can refuse a blood alcohol test even if you are hammered, but now the government is going to require that you take a blood test in case you may have been exposed to a virus? That's going to get real interesting.
With that in mind, it is past time for smarter people than I to determine what our objective is now based on the data we have now and come up with a plan that takes into account the economic ruin that is rapidly approaching. Is the objective to flatten the curve, minimize new infections, minimize a spike that will overwhelm the healthcare system, minimize deaths???? Each one of those may sound the same, but the plan to accomplish each one is very different.
Hospital systems are ready in areas where they didn't already have problems. Depending on where you look, New York state had a crushing hospital bed need for the past decade. NYC has historically operated at 80% plus bed occupancy so hearing Cuomo say that maintaining 30% bed availability is kind of amusing. But overall, the health care systems are ready to treat a surge in patients. There are limits to that of course, but largely, they are ready.
Until there is a vaccine, this is going to spread and while I certainly hope the vaccine is 100% effective, that is not likely. There are multiple known genomes and there are new "observations" that are showing two different new mutations. One that it is more contagious and another that says it is becoming weaker, much like SARs did. So, hopefully it is better than the flu vaccine, which is 50% effective in a good year. Treatment options are promising so that is good as well. But there is no disputing that this virus isn't going anywhere and if you go out at all, you may get it. That too, isn't changing any time soon.
It is now a given that we are in a recession and the long-term effect of fed money pumping is going to be bad. Necessary for the short term, but bad long term. There are some incredibly disturbing facts out there that just aren't being publicized or even known if you don't watch CNBC. I guess that's becuase if you talk about the economy, you are branded a heartless soul that is ok with deaths. Nonetheless, it has to be considered. There is a direct link between poverty and deaths.
Some of the facts:
1. 7.4% of mortgages went into forebearance in April. That will be significantly worse this month.
2. I talked to CFO with a major SE commercial development company and their rent defaults are north of 75% for april.
3. This surprised me, but the restaurant/bar industry is apparently the second largest employment industry in the US. They have been completely shut down for a month now. Many are done forever and face a very uncertain future even if they reopen.
4. First round of PPP loans will run out next month. That means another huge round of layoffs.
5. We haven't seen the impact on local economies that are dependent on tourism. But, if people still aren't travelling in July/August, it won't take long before Myrtle, Hilton Head, etc. will be defaulting on their bonds and having severe liquidity problems. NYC is already there.
6. Unemployment, holy cow, don't need to go there. But remember that most americans don't have any savings. There was a forbes report (I think that was the source) that said 40% of americans couldn't handle a $1,000 unexpected expense. And this was when they had jobs.
I could go on and on here, but the fact is, no matter if you are on the side of continuing shelter in place, the scenario is economic disaster which no one wants. If you on the side of opening up, there is no question infections will increase and more people will die.
Since it looks like this will be a state by state decision, I actually think McMaster is doing a pretty good job. We need to a better job of enforcing strict guidelines in nursing homes, assisted living facilities, etc. for the foreseeable future. They are simply terrible right now. If we protect those most susceptible, opening up slowly is the only real option. Personal choice at the end of the day will prevail. If you want to go out, go out. If you don't, don't. Wash your hands, wear a mask, etc., but we need to get moving again.
Pardon the long post, I had to deal with all of this today on a call. As I'm sure there will be in this thread and any other, there was significant disagreement. We just really really need to have factual reporting from the media and it would be great to have someone in a leadership position somewhere start moving forward with a well-thought out reason based plan understanding that you can't make everyone happy and never will.
With that in mind, it is past time for smarter people than I to determine what our objective is now based on the data we have now and come up with a plan that takes into account the economic ruin that is rapidly approaching. Is the objective to flatten the curve, minimize new infections, minimize a spike that will overwhelm the healthcare system, minimize deaths???? Each one of those may sound the same, but the plan to accomplish each one is very different.
Hospital systems are ready in areas where they didn't already have problems. Depending on where you look, New York state had a crushing hospital bed need for the past decade. NYC has historically operated at 80% plus bed occupancy so hearing Cuomo say that maintaining 30% bed availability is kind of amusing. But overall, the health care systems are ready to treat a surge in patients. There are limits to that of course, but largely, they are ready.
Until there is a vaccine, this is going to spread and while I certainly hope the vaccine is 100% effective, that is not likely. There are multiple known genomes and there are new "observations" that are showing two different new mutations. One that it is more contagious and another that says it is becoming weaker, much like SARs did. So, hopefully it is better than the flu vaccine, which is 50% effective in a good year. Treatment options are promising so that is good as well. But there is no disputing that this virus isn't going anywhere and if you go out at all, you may get it. That too, isn't changing any time soon.
It is now a given that we are in a recession and the long-term effect of fed money pumping is going to be bad. Necessary for the short term, but bad long term. There are some incredibly disturbing facts out there that just aren't being publicized or even known if you don't watch CNBC. I guess that's becuase if you talk about the economy, you are branded a heartless soul that is ok with deaths. Nonetheless, it has to be considered. There is a direct link between poverty and deaths.
Some of the facts:
1. 7.4% of mortgages went into forebearance in April. That will be significantly worse this month.
2. I talked to CFO with a major SE commercial development company and their rent defaults are north of 75% for april.
3. This surprised me, but the restaurant/bar industry is apparently the second largest employment industry in the US. They have been completely shut down for a month now. Many are done forever and face a very uncertain future even if they reopen.
4. First round of PPP loans will run out next month. That means another huge round of layoffs.
5. We haven't seen the impact on local economies that are dependent on tourism. But, if people still aren't travelling in July/August, it won't take long before Myrtle, Hilton Head, etc. will be defaulting on their bonds and having severe liquidity problems. NYC is already there.
6. Unemployment, holy cow, don't need to go there. But remember that most americans don't have any savings. There was a forbes report (I think that was the source) that said 40% of americans couldn't handle a $1,000 unexpected expense. And this was when they had jobs.
I could go on and on here, but the fact is, no matter if you are on the side of continuing shelter in place, the scenario is economic disaster which no one wants. If you on the side of opening up, there is no question infections will increase and more people will die.
Since it looks like this will be a state by state decision, I actually think McMaster is doing a pretty good job. We need to a better job of enforcing strict guidelines in nursing homes, assisted living facilities, etc. for the foreseeable future. They are simply terrible right now. If we protect those most susceptible, opening up slowly is the only real option. Personal choice at the end of the day will prevail. If you want to go out, go out. If you don't, don't. Wash your hands, wear a mask, etc., but we need to get moving again.
Pardon the long post, I had to deal with all of this today on a call. As I'm sure there will be in this thread and any other, there was significant disagreement. We just really really need to have factual reporting from the media and it would be great to have someone in a leadership position somewhere start moving forward with a well-thought out reason based plan understanding that you can't make everyone happy and never will.
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To be fair, there were a lot of democratic leaders who were urging people to go out in public for a while as well. Let's just agree that republican/democrats and even the CDC and others in the health industry were caught off guard. Not everything has to be political.
I agree, I was just pointing out that President Trump changed what he was saying about the virus as things developed, just like the people that went from saying masks shouldnt be worn in public to recommending or requiring them in public. Thats all I was trying to say.
I agree with everything you say, except that I think people should try to abide by social distancing recommendations when they are out and should wear masks if they cant. Oh, and test as many people as possible and isolate anyone that is positive. Thats really all we can do.
We done with that virus here in Georgia....
Will be interesting to see how states like Georgia that are back open (or are in the process of doing so) will look, numbers wise, in 3 or 4 weeks.
you for real believe Donald trump would win a fight against ANY health adult? for real?
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