Due to the election. It's looking more and more like a Biden presidency with a split congress at this point. Just wondering what to expect.
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Cris or anyone else - What are we expecting out of the Stock Market
- Thread starter TigerDMD
- Start date
The split Congress will likely limit Biden’s ability to push through some of the more radical policies (including expanding the Supreme Court). The markets are likely to view that a a good thing as stability is typically preferred. Early returns seem to support that.
Probably the worst case is for the results to be uncertain at the end of the day. Uncertainty tends to drive selling not buy and thus price drops.
Probably the worst case is for the results to be uncertain at the end of the day. Uncertainty tends to drive selling not buy and thus price drops.
Not so fast. Trump hasn’t lost yet. Plus expect a legal battle before the dust settles. The markets are up at the opening so who knows.
Good morning, @TigerDMD.
This thread will likely get moved because it will turn into a political fistfight.
I will answer your question without discussion of any candidate or mention of a political party.
I will leave it to others to talk about the ups and downs of the market. It is something I do not pay a lot of attention to unless there is extreme movement, which would represent an opportunity. That happened earlier this year in March and April and I took advantage of it.
You're asking for a personal opinion, so I can talk about it from my point of view. If the composition of the Senate remains status quo (in terms of the majority; and again I am not going to mention candidates and parties), then essentially it means you are not going to see taxes go up on earned income, you are not going to see taxes go up on capital gains, you are not going to see taxes go up on dividends and you are not likely to see taxes increase on corporations. For me personally, this is great. This is fantastic. By any common sense examination, without a shadow of a doubt, I stood to make less money/have less money/invest less money had my taxes gone up on earned income, dividends and capital gains.
Please let me encourage everyone to keep commentary on specific candidates/candidate mentions and party mentions on The Round Table board.
My advisor posted this article before the election. Also, The longer things drag out, the more jittery the market will get.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...void-a-huge-hit-to-their-nest-eggs-2020-08-13
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...void-a-huge-hit-to-their-nest-eggs-2020-08-13
I am Republican but just some facts to slow the panic of losing your 401K because of a Biden win. Don't buy into the panic and fear. If you look Trump isn't really any better with The DJI or S&P than any other president. He is actually Avg. in comparison. The market historically climbs no matter who is in office, outside of normal corrections, a war, or a major cotastrophy .
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/dow-performed-best-worst-under-100308772.html
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/dow-performed-best-worst-under-100308772.html
I personally see a sharp downturn on the near horizon. If I make big gains this week into next week as the market is trending, I might move to a more conservative approach. I still think a global recession is going to happen. The impact from Covid isn't close to running it's course yet. I think the market will enjoy stability for a short time after the election but it's going to nose dive when investors lose confidence in the leadership and global earnings continue to be down.
The market was due for a correction or at least some sideways action after an 11 year bull run. I’m guessing it comes sooner. Technical innovation will continue to push the market up along with a clean energy which should thrive under Biden and Kamala for the next 12 years. So the stock market will be fine. Will it go crazy like it did under Trump? No.
The market historically does better if one party does not control all three levels....House, Senate, and President so the Senate remaining republican is a big deal.
Believe the market historically has done the best when the President and Senate are different parties. So technically based on history would do better if we had a Democratic President and Republican Senate.
Would gladly settle for there being Republican Pres and Senate
Also will add that these are strange times in which we live so not sure you can base what will happen in the market by looking at history.
Believe the market historically has done the best when the President and Senate are different parties. So technically based on history would do better if we had a Democratic President and Republican Senate.
Would gladly settle for there being Republican Pres and Senate
Also will add that these are strange times in which we live so not sure you can base what will happen in the market by looking at history.
Financial markets like gridlock since that keeps things relatively stable and changes are muted and slow moving. That allows companies to plan and then execute those plans. Companies would rather have a stable situation they may not 100% prefer than major changes. Easier on execution strategies.
There will be more 'wandering' that you expect.
Or want.
Or maybe you should do some.
Did not say there will not be ups and downs as there will before sure. I was referring to the general return over time during the next 4 years assuming the senate stays Republican in 2 years
I did this last year. My daughter's a Senior this year. I take money out for everything remotely related to school, but put some back every month as well to get State tax benefit. Just trying to manage the balance at this point
No expert, but political gridlock in Washington DC is often perfect for the markets. However...
The markets have already priced in the expected future stimulus and a sharp recovery. I think we run the risk of some downside over the next few months due to all of the uncertainty, especially with stimulus. Plus, the PE ratios could get more out of wack for many equities, which are already reasonably expensive in specific segments, especially high growth stocks.
I feel like I’ve been wrong more often than right here in 2020. So, that must mean the S&P500 will hit 4000 before 2021.
The markets have already priced in the expected future stimulus and a sharp recovery. I think we run the risk of some downside over the next few months due to all of the uncertainty, especially with stimulus. Plus, the PE ratios could get more out of wack for many equities, which are already reasonably expensive in specific segments, especially high growth stocks.
I feel like I’ve been wrong more often than right here in 2020. So, that must mean the S&P500 will hit 4000 before 2021.
I agree I think Covid is going to ravage the world. All this talk of a vaccine is smoke and mirrors. I have never had a cold shot and most of those are corona viruses 🦠 Get ready for a huge recession!
I think a Biden victory has been baked in for a while. Add in the possibility of Republicans keeping the Senate and the markets are happy. Stability with tax laws.
With a Republican Senate, no tax raises, no packing the Supreme Court, and for any federal judges, they have to choose from a list provided by Lindsey and Cocaine Mitch.
For pushing Amy C Barrett through, the Senate didn’t get punished but actually rewarded.
Not only did the GOP win the Senate, but also made big gains in the House. That means in 2 more years it probaly flips red.
For pushing Amy C Barrett through, the Senate didn’t get punished but actually rewarded.
Not only did the GOP win the Senate, but also made big gains in the House. That means in 2 more years it probaly flips red.
we will have the vaccine very very soon. it's right around the corner from what i hear
I don’t know. Trump has been saying this since March and here we are..... at least I voted for him and he will protect me from this fake hoax virus
This.....would say look for risk parity products (means you don't see big gains or huge losses) or Fixed Income focused products.
That said, junior year is when you normally want to be thinking about mitigating your risk anyway. I still think we are going to see some earnings news push the markets down in Dec/Jan so something to think about there also.
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