I did ask AI about her numbers and to be honest she was not far off. Posted below.
My point remains, the values we share with Europe are diverging. The American people will not stand for erosions to their rights, particularly freedom of speech.
Comprehensive, official data comparing the exact number of arrests for speech violations in Russia versus Europe for the year 2024 is not fully available as of March 3, 2025, due to the lack of centralized, up-to-date statistics from all relevant countries and the ongoing nature of 2024’s events. However, I can provide an informed comparison based on available reports, trends, and partial data from 2024, supplemented by contextual insights from prior years.
Russia in 2024
In Russia, arrests for speech violations are typically tied to laws against "extremism," "discrediting the armed forces," "spreading fake news" about the military, and anti-war expression, especially following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. These laws have been aggressively enforced, targeting journalists, activists, poets, and ordinary citizens. For instance:
- A UN expert reported in January 2024 that two poets, Artyom Kamardin and Yegor Shtovba, were sentenced to 7 and 5.5 years, respectively, for reciting anti-war poems in Moscow, highlighting the clampdown on artistic expression.
- Human Rights Watch noted in its 2024 report that Russia adopted repressive legislation and issued long prison sentences for peaceful anti-war speech, with authorities prosecuting individuals on charges like "treason" and "confidential cooperation" at an increasing rate. In the first half of 2023 alone, the FSB opened more treason cases than in all of 2022, a trend likely continuing into 2024.
- The Washington Post reported in April 2024 that Russia arrested journalists like Sergey Karelin on "extremism" charges, part of a broader crackdown on dissent. While exact 2024 arrest numbers are not specified, estimates from prior years provide context: a Russian human rights group, Agora, documented 411 criminal cases against internet users in 2017, a figure often cited in comparisons, though actual arrests in 2024 are likely higher given intensified censorship post-Ukraine invasion.
Anecdotal claims on X suggest Russia arrested around 400 people for speech violations in 2024, but this figure lacks official corroboration and may underrepresent the total, as Russia does not transparently report such statistics. Given the documented escalation in prosecutions and the rarity of large protests due to arrest risks (e.g., thousands detained for opposing the war since 2022), a conservative estimate might place 2024 arrests in the range of several hundred to low thousands, though this remains speculative without final data.
Europe in 2024
Europe, encompassing the European Union (EU) and other countries like the UK, has a varied approach to speech violations, often tied to hate speech, incitement to violence, or disinformation laws, though enforcement differs by country. "Europe" is not a monolith, so aggregating arrests is challenging, and no single 2024 figure exists as of now. Key insights include:
- United Kingdom: The UK uses laws like Section 127 of the Communications Act to address "grossly offensive" or "menacing" online content. A widely circulated (but debunked) claim from 2017 stated 3,300 arrests for social media posts, though this covered broader online harassment, not just speech violations. In 2024, around 500 people were arrested during far-right riots following the Southport stabbings, with some arrests linked to social media activity inciting violence, not pure "free speech." Posts on X claiming 4,000 arrests in 2024 for "thought crimes" in the UK or EU exaggerate and lack evidence, conflating broader criminal acts with speech-specific cases.
- EU Countries: Individual nations enforce speech laws differently. Germany, for example, arrested two German-Russian nationals in April 2024 for plotting sabotage on behalf of Russia, though this was not a pure speech violation. France arrested a Russian in July 2024 suspected of Olympic destabilization, potentially involving disinformation. The EU’s focus on countering Russian propaganda (e.g., sanctioning "Voice of Europe" in May 2024) suggests some arrests tied to disinformation, but these are niche cases. The Institute of Mass Information noted 15 non-war-related speech violations in Ukraine in October 2024, though most of its 41 recorded violations were Russia’s doing.
- Across Europe, hate speech prosecutions occur, but jail sentences for speech protected under international norms are rare, per PA Media’s 2023 analysis. A 2024 EU-wide total of 4,000 arrests, as claimed on X, is unverified and likely inflated, possibly misrepresenting data from prior years or broader crime categories.
Comparison and Estimation
- Russia: Likely several hundred to 1,000+ arrests in 2024, based on intensified crackdowns and historical trends (e.g., 411 cases in 2017 escalating post-2022). The focus is on political dissent and anti-war speech, with severe penalties (e.g., 15-year sentences for "mass riots" in Bashkortostan protests).
- Europe: Potentially hundreds across 44+ countries, but far less per capita than Russia, with arrests spread across hate speech, incitement, and rare disinformation cases. The UK’s 500 riot-related arrests in 2024 include some speech violations, but a continent-wide total of 4,000 is unsubstantiated. A more realistic estimate might be in the low hundreds to 1,000, heavily weighted by specific events.
Conclusion
Russia likely arrested more individuals for speech violations in 2024 than all of Europe combined, driven by systematic censorship of dissent, whereas Europe’s arrests are more sporadic, context-specific (e.g., riots, hate speech), and less politically uniform. Russia’s per capita rate is almost certainly higher given its population (144 million) versus Europe’s (750 million+), and its authoritarian approach contrasts with Europe’s democratic legal frameworks, where speech protections are stronger despite occasional overreach. Without finalized 2024 data, these are educated estimates—Russia’s total could be 1,000–2,000, Europe’s perhaps 500–1,000—but Russia’s suppression of speech appears more pervasive and targeted. For precise figures, we’d need official reports, unlikely to emerge fully until later in 2025.