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Dr. Anthony Fauci

Rychek4 said:
Just to be clear, “proportional circles on the map to show the size of contagion."
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Proportional circles to other enormous circles and
/or proportional to arguing in the enormous liberal circles you do.
#FACT The size of the contagion is microscopic in comparison to the world population. 225,112 Currently infected Worldwide to a total World population of 7,700,000,000. For your microscopic brain, That’s a whopping total of 0.002924% Currently Infected Worldwide.

#liberalsargueingalaxysizedcircles
 
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BigTimeTiger said:
Proportional circles to other enormous circles and
/or proportional to arguing in the enormous liberal circles you do.
#FACT The size of the contagion is microscopic in comparison to the world population. 225,112 Currently infected Worldwide to a total World population of 7,700,000,000. For your microscopic brain, That’s a whopping total of 0.002924% Currently Infected Worldwide.

#liberalsargueingalaxysizedcircles
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Your lack of understanding of statistics is staggering.

You realize the number of confirmed cases is likely an order of magnitude below the total number of cases. Not to mention that the data is always trailing.

In fact you can work backward from the number of infected vs. the number of dead based off incubation + recovery time (around 14 days). In the U.S. with around 43,000 confirmed cases, since the beginning of March we should have somewhere around 12 deaths, but instead we had 500+. That means we might have 43,000 confirmed cases but we can infer we probably have quite a bit over a million actual cases.

Then again when I look at your math above I find it unlikely that you will even remotely fathom how virus' spread or how anything above an R-nought of 1 is going to be exponential.

True you should factor in a value for lockdowns and other precautions, but I doubt highly it's above a 50% reduction in R value. Probably not even above 35%.

Also I am not a liberal, though it's hard to call myself a Republican anymore. Fiscal conservative is a dead term for the Republican party now.
 
Rychek4 said:
Your lack of understanding of statistics is staggering.

You realize the number of confirmed cases is likely an order of magnitude below the total number of cases. Not to mention that the data is always trailing.

In fact you can work backward from the number of infected vs. the number of dead based off incubation + recovery time (around 14 days). In the U.S. with around 43,000 confirmed cases, since the beginning of March we should have somewhere around 12 deaths, but instead we had 500+. That means we might have 43,000 confirmed cases but we can infer we probably have quite a bit over a million actual cases.

Then again when I look at your math above I find it unlikely that you will even remotely fathom how virus' spread or how anything above an R-nought of 1 is going to be exponential.

True you should factor in a value for lockdowns and other precautions, but I doubt highly it's above a 50% reduction in R value. Probably not even above 35%.

Also I am not a liberal, though it's hard to call myself a Republican anymore. Fiscal conservative is a dead term for the Republican party now.
Click to expand...
102,200 babies murdered today
9,644,755 babies murdered this year
243,342 suicide this year
381,487 aids related deaths this year
1,724,939 Deaths of children under 5 this year

Any of the above deaths will dwarf Covid-19 when all is said and done lockdown or not. Those above are Facts! Not some made up future statistics. With those facts above it’s hard to give a shit about Corona deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/
 
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BigTimeTiger said:
102,200 babies murdered today
9,644,755 babies murdered this year
243,342 suicide this year
381,487 aids related deaths this year
1,724,939 Deaths of children under 5 this year

Any of the above deaths will dwarf Covid-19 when all is said and done lockdown or not. Those above are Facts! Not some made up future statistics. With those facts above it’s hard to give a shit about Corona deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/
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Without a quarantine and other effective measures, COVID-19 would kill between 155 million and 233 million worldwide this calendar year.

Can you do that math?

Also if 102,200 babies were murdered today, assuming that was the per day average, that would mean 37 million babies murdered per year, not 9.6 million. Do baby murderers take off for holiday or something?

Your math is as convincing as the rest of your arguments.
 
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Rychek4 said:
Without a quarantine and other effective measures, COVID-19 would kill between 155 million and 233 million worldwide this calendar year.

Can you do that math?

Also if 102,200 babies were murdered today, assuming that was the per day average, that would mean 37 million babies murdered per year, not 9.6 million. Do baby murderers take off for holiday or something?

Your math is as convincing as the rest of your arguments.
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Abortions this year as in 2020. lol You can’t fvcking read!
You’re an idiot, 233 million Covid-19 deaths this year? You sure about that dumbass?

https://www.worldometers.info/

Currently the World population is 7,772,938,854
So you’re saying the entire world population will be infected and 233,000,000 will die? 233/7772=0.03
So you think 3% is the death rate when most medical experts think it will be closer to 1%. Herd immunity (look it up Mr Statistics, you might want to factor that in) will make that impossible. That’s some awesome math there Mr Statistics. Care to wager abortions in the World will be 4 times the number of Covid-19 deaths in 2020? How about 5Gs? Heck, Suicide will probably out number Covid-19 deaths in 2020 because of all those out of work because we value the elderly more.
 
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BigTimeTiger said:
Abortions this year as in 2020 lol
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The phrase you are looking for would have been "Year to date". That's how you communicate statistics with people.

BigTimeTiger said:
You’re an idiot, 233 million this year? You sure about that dumbass?

https://www.worldometers.info/

Currently the World population is 7,772,938,854
So you’re saying the entire world population will be infected and 233,000,000 will die? 233/7772=0.03
So you think 3% is the death rate when most medical experts think it will be closer to 1%.
Click to expand...

Lets use your own site: worldometers

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

"3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 3"

Edit: You can keep calling me names but I don't think that really gets us very far, this conversation isn't personal to me and I won't lower myself down into the mud with you.
 
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Rychek4 said:
The phrase you are looking for would have been "Year to date". That's how you communicate statistics with people.



Lets use your own site: worldometers

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

"3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 3"

Edit: You can keep calling me names but I don't think that really gets us very far, this conversation isn't personal to me and I won't lower myself down into the mud with you.
Click to expand...
Currently the World population is 7,772,938,854
So you’re saying the entire world population will be infected and 233,000,000 will die? 233/7772=0.03
So you think 3% is the death rate when most medical experts think it will be closer to 1%. Herd immunity (look it up Mr Statistics, you might want to factor that in) will make that impossible. That’s some awesome math there Mr Statistics. Care to wager abortions in the World will be 4 times the number of Covid-19 deaths in 2020? How about 5Gs? Heck, Suicide will probably out number Covid-19 deaths in 2020 because of all those out of work because we value the elderly more.

March 3rd was a long time ago, also most people know that a mortality can’t be figured until after it is all over.
 
BigTimeTiger said:
Currently the World population is 7,772,938,854
So you’re saying the entire world population will be infected and 233,000,000 will die? 233/7772=0.03
So you think 3% is the death rate when most medical experts think it will be closer to 1%. Herd immunity (look it up Mr Statistics, you might want to factor that in) will make that impossible. That’s some awesome math there Mr Statistics. Care to wager abortions in the World will be 4 times the number of Covid-19 deaths in 2020? How about 5Gs? Heck, Suicide will probably out number Covid-19 deaths in 2020 because of all those out of work because we value the elderly more.
Click to expand...
I'm not really sure what point you are trying to make with the second half of this argument, it seems like you are increasingly drunk or something.

Regardless, herd immunity is certainly a thing. For an R0 of 12 like measles it requires something high like 90% immunity, but for an R0 of 3 we are looking at something like 66%. The problem with that is infection rates are exponential so with a 14 day recovery time it's already spread well beyond herd immunity before it takes effect.

This is a pretty great article on it:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615375/what-is-herd-immunity-and-can-it-stop-the-coronavirus/

"Whether it’s 50% or 60% or 80%, those figures imply billions infected and millions killed around the world"
 
Rychek4 said:
The phrase you are looking for would have been "Year to date". That's how you communicate statistics with people.



Lets use your own site: worldometers

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

"3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 3"

Edit: You can keep calling me names but I don't think that really gets us very far, this conversation isn't personal to me and I won't lower myself down into the mud with you.
Click to expand...
S
Rychek4 said:
I'm not really sure what point you are trying to make with the second half of this argument, it seems like you are increasingly drunk or something.

Regardless, herd immunity is certainly a thing. For an R0 of 12 like measles it requires something high like 90% immunity, but for an R0 of 3 we are looking at something like 66%. The problem with that is infection rates are exponential so with a 14 day recovery time it's already spread well beyond herd immunity before it takes effect.

This is a pretty great article on it:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615375/what-is-herd-immunity-and-can-it-stop-the-coronavirus/

"Whether it’s 50% or 60% or 80%, those figures imply billions infected and millions killed around the world"
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So you say 3.4% and Currently early math is showing just 4.1% and probably several million are already infected & untested according to your fellow ilk. lol
“Importantly, in emerging viral infection outbreaks the case-fatality ratio is often overestimated in the early stages because case detection is highly biased towards the more severe cases.”

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct

PS put your money where your mouth is. @Tillman28 we need a referee
 
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BigTimeTiger said:
S
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I don't know what you are trying to say here? LOL
BigTimeTiger said:
“Importantly, in emerging viral infection outbreaks the case-fatality ratio is often overestimated in the early stages because case detection is highly biased towards the more severe cases.”

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct

PS put your money where your mouth is.
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Well the first part is exactly what I said earlier, we can use the fatality ratio to work backward into the real numbers of infection so... Thanks for supporting my point.

The second part about putting my money where my mouth is just sounds like some kinda alpha male threat thing which I am not really interested in. Self confidence doesn't really lend itself to being braggadocious or challenging others in some sort of inane competition.

I do have my actual face as my avatar so I put myself out there more than most here. I would love to buy you and beer and run a Spartan race with a fellow tiger supporter one day. Thanks for your time.
 
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Rychek4 said:
I don't know what you are trying to say here? LOL


Well the first part is exactly what I said earlier, we can use the fatality ratio to work backward into the real numbers of infection so... Thanks for supporting my point.

The second part about putting my money where my mouth is just sounds like some kinda alpha male threat thing which I am not really interested in. Self confidence doesn't really lend itself to being braggadocious or challenging others in some sort of inane competition.

I do have my actual face as my avatar so I put myself out there more than most here. I would love to buy you and beer and run a Spartan race with a fellow tiger supporter one day. Thanks for your time.
Click to expand...
Quits just like a liberal when shit gets serious.
 
BigTimeTiger said:
Yep you won a participation trophy!
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Don't be such a snowflake. This conversation was going places until you said "Quits just like a liberal when shit gets serious."

When I gave a thoughtful response.

Also, put down the bottle.
 
BigTimeTiger said:
Everyone infected and 233 million dead by the end of 2020 ROTFLMAO
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I can't say I am surprised that you would show up with a logical fallacy argument, argumentum ad absurdum is one of the easiest.

Are all of your responses going to be one-liners now?

Put down the bottle.

No wait, put it all the way back.
 
Rychek4 said:
I enjoyed that joke. Honestly lol.
Click to expand...
Liar no thumbs up!

Just for you.
Participation-Trophy.png
 
Rychek4 said:
I ain't smarter than this guy, but we are asking a chemist to do statistics? I think his data is thought provoking but the problem seems to be he is basing his data on "Confirmed cases" rather than statistically probably cases.

It's an interesting distinction.
Click to expand...
Confirmed cases is the only true data that is 100% known. So Scientists don’t do statistics?
 
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