Election Results: Can Trump maintain absolute majority, Reps one seat away from preserving House majority

[leetp]

Reps look to have 218 sewn up with AK district 1, but might also take AZ 6 by the skin of their teeth. CA 49 and a few others look promising as well.

EDIT: AK does ranked choice voting, so if the majority vote winner does not have an absolute majority, then it goes to the ranked-choice system where things can get weird.

​	208​	​	217​	​	​	​	​
District​	Democrat​	Pts​	Republican​	Pts​	Votes​	Diff​	Change as of 10:00 AM Monday, Nov 11​
AZ 6​	Engel​	48.5​	Ciscomani​	49.1​	81%​	0.6​	Was 48.5/49.2 @ 77%​
CA 21​	Costa​	50.5​	Maher​	49.5​	64%​	1.0​	​
CA 47​	Min​	50.5​	Baugh​	49.5​	82%​	1.0​	​
CA 27​	Whitesides​	50.4​	Garcia​	49.1​	84%​	1.3​	Was 50.4/49.6 @ 81%​
CA 45​	Tran​	48.9​	Steel​	51.1​	80%​	2.2​	Was 48.7/51.3 @ 79%​
CA 9​	Harder​	51.2​	Lincoln​	48.8​	61%​	2.4​	​
CA 13​	Gray​	48.7​	Duarte​	51.3​	57%​	2.6​	​
CA 41​	Rollins​	48.6​	Calvert​	51.4​	76%​	2.8​	​
CA 49​	Levin​	51.7​	Gunderson​	48.3​	80%​	3.4​	​
AK 1​	Peltola​	45.4​	Begich​	49.5​	71%​	4.1​	​

Data Provided By: NEP/Edison via Reuters

 

[leetp]

The House is flakey. Given that it is hyper-local and faces reelection every two years, you want as much vote cushion as possible.

Too bad the Senate could not get to 60 (wasn't even in the realm of possibility).

The thought though does make me think back to Obama's first two years when he had a 60-seat Senate supermajority and a 236-to-199 House majority. This was the 111th Congress; the congress that gave us Obama care...and it still required massive amounts of political maneuvering to get in through.

 

[leetp]

CA 49 now a DEM hold putting Dems at 209 to the Reps 217. It's a 435 Seat house, so 218 seats are needed for control.

 

[leetp]

Changed thread title to discuss broader elections results...namely, can Trump hold the absolute popular vote majority...

As of now he is at 74,675,486 votes and 50.3%. per Reuters and Edison Research.

The AP has it at 74,838,166 votes and 50.4%.

If AP is to be believed, a Trump lead growing with the vote count is at least a little surprising on the surface given that the bulk of the remaining vote to be counted is in CA, a state with only 72% reporting and healthy 58.5/38.6% vote split between Harris and Trump, respectively. In essence, there is nearly 5 million more votes to be counted CA alone. Extrapolating CA's voting trend, there should be about 2.8M more votes for Harris out of CA and about 1.9M for Trump. If the total national vote count comes in around 148.49M as the numbers imply, a tenth of a percentage point swing is only about 150,000 votes. Again, using AP's figures, Trumps absolute majority rests only on about 600,00 votes.

Still, there are a lot of states that Trump won handily that are still counting too...so there is quite a bit more vote to pick up for Trump than just what is in CA.

 

[leetp]

There have now been about 148.48 million votes counted, and Trump still maintains 0.4% absolute notional popular vote majority. His total vote count now stands at 74,845,955 but remains at 50.4% of the vote total. Kamala has gained on him, but only by just over 3 thousand votes.

 

[leetp]

RCP has called a few more house races and the Repubs have control at 219 and counting.

 

[leetp]

The seat count not sits at 209 (-1) for the Dems and 219 (+1) for the Reps.

These were the latest seats to fall:
AZ 6: REP Hold
CA 41: REP Hold
CA 27: DEM Pickup

Here's where the remaining competitive seats stand:
CA 9, 21 and 47: Dems lead
AK 1, CA 13 and 45: R's lead

It looks likely that the Reps will have least maintain their 220-seat majority from last congress and could even increase it to 222.

 

[leetp]

Trump popular vote majority continues to dwindle as a little less than 20% of the vote in the west coast states remains to be counted. Trump is only pulling around 38-39% of that vote.

Reuters: 75,004,953 votes (50.2%)
AP: 75,120,910 votes (50.3%)

I would take nothing from the differences between the two...specifically, I would not assume that Trump lead is growing with the count just because AP had him at a higher vote count and a higher percentage of the popular vote.

Note also that votes are literally tricking in by the dozens as I type this. Now 75,005,265 and 75,120,924 between Reuters and AP, respectively.

 

[leetp]

Back to the Trump absolute majority... IF the left coast vote continues go to Trump in their present margins of 38.9% in WA, 41.4% in OR and 38.1% in CA, Trump should pick up at least 1.8 million votes and hold on for an absolute majority of no less than 50.14%

Keep in mind this number 'should' be slightly higher given that no state is reporting 100% of the vote count and when factoring out CA's 17.2 million votes--nearly 60% of which are Kamala's, Trump has comfortable absolute majority of nearly 52%.

 

[Clemtron]

Boom

 

[leetp]

By my very rough calculation, we should see a final national vote tally of about 155 million votes, of which Trump should get at least 78 million votes.

Here are 2020's election numbers for comps:
Over 158 million were votes counted
Over 81 million went to Biden
Over 74 million went to Trump

 

[dpic73]

 

[leetp]

Not sure what is up with the vote count in CA, but at one point there were projected to be a little more than 17 million votes to count, now that total is well under 16 million. In CA, ballots needed to be post marked by Nov 5th and received by Nov 12th, so I'm guessing they are not getting the volume of mail-in ballots they expected.

Anyway, based on that I'll need to revise my total vote count estimate down from around 154.5 million to under 154 million with Trump getting at least 76.9 million total votes.

 

[leetp]

Here's an update on the House.
It looks like some news outlets are finally calling the House for the Reps.

For what its worth, here's where RCP has it:

​	211​	​	219​	​	​	​	​
District​	Democrat​	Pts​	Republican​	Pts​	Votes​	Diff​	Change​
AK 1​	Peltola​	45.9​	Begich​	49.0​	93%​	3.1​	Was 48.5/49.2 @ 77%​
CA 9​	Harder​	51.8​	Lincoln​	48.2​	72%​	3.6​	Was 51.2/48.8 @ 61%​
CA 13​	Gray​	48.8​	Duarte​	51.2​	75%​	2.4​	Was 48.7/51.3 @ 57%​
CA 21​	Costa​	51.7​	Maher​	49.5​	77%​	2.2​	Was 50.4/49.6 @ 81%​
CA 45​	Tran​	49.9​	Steel​	50.1​	84%​	0.2​	Was 49.3/50.7 @ 84%​

Most recent move was CA 47 being called a DEM hold...which was no surprise.

And what the heck is going on in CA 9, 13, and 21? They just flat aren't counting ballots. Thier numbers have barely ticked up in days and all mail-in ballots had to be received by yesterday, Nov 12th!

A tight race in CA 45 is only getting tighter with the Rep candidate only having a 0.2% lead that narrowed from 1.3% lead a few days ago.

Reps should take CA 13, but AK 1 is going to go to ranked choice as it looks like the Rep candidate will not get to 50%. I've got no clue how that going to go.

 

[CUTiger1977]