At least you know whose in charge with Putin.
Or…if Putin feels cornered and threatened… the nuclear option becomes part of this scenario.
Just saying anyone thinking a destabilization of Russia is a “GOOD” thing in geopolitics would be very wrong.
Got a little coup d'é·tat brewing in Mother Russia
- Thread starter GoodWord28
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Or…if Putin feels cornered and threatened… the nuclear option becomes part of this scenario.
Just saying anyone thinking a destabilization of Russia is a “GOOD” thing in geopolitics would be very wrong.
Well you give a nutcase millions to arm a force of convicts and ex-special forces . . . don’t be surprised when he turns on you.
Putin is tight with Xi Jinping. Moscow and Beijing are tight.
China might act unilaterally to protect their interests.
Lots of what ifs in this scenario and none of them are GOOD
China might act unilaterally to protect their interests.
Lots of what ifs in this scenario and none of them are GOOD
This outcome was kind of predictable. I'm hoping the Chechan guy takes over. He seems reasonable
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China are pragmatists and will only do what best serves China. I don’t foresee them taking any action or even really saying much about this situation until it becomes clear who the victor of this power struggle will be. I think it’ll be Putin, but it won’t be because China did anything to help him.
China will wait for things to play out and cut a favorable deal with whoever wins when they feel they’ve got good leverage to suit their interests.
Very reasonable question. My feeling is Putin is the most powerful dictator in Europe, so he's the one you prefer to go down. Then you deal with Prigozin. I don't think he could just step in, consolidate power, and run things business as usual. He would be vulnerable too, and for a good while.
This is going to tip the war decidedly in Ukraine's favor. And no matter what, Russia is now destabilized to a serious degree. Even if it fails, this will weaken Putin's grip on power to a point of disrepair.
All bets are off if he's a psycho willing to launch nukes at Ukraine, or somewhere else. My most sobering answer is I thought at the start of the Ukraine invasion that we could be seeing the start of WW3.
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This makes me pretty nervous. Putin being out is a good thing, but I just can’t imagine that his replacement would be any better. Historically people who lead military coups haven’t been known as particularly peaceful or stable leaders.
It’s entirely possible this winds up as a net negative for the world. And I’m not anywhere near smart enough to know how the US and NATO countries can try to control the situation and get into a more favorable outcome.
It’s entirely possible this winds up as a net negative for the world. And I’m not anywhere near smart enough to know how the US and NATO countries can try to control the situation and get into a more favorable outcome.
Prigozhin has now turned his troops around after coming to some sort of deal with Lukashenko. Have no idea what this means but I don't see how Prigozhin survives for long. But if he's taken out and Russia is weakened, it could be a win/win.
I still think this is ultimately a zero sum game. Only one of them survives this at some point, and either way Putin's grip on power is diminished. Might be a win win for the west for Prigozin to get taken out, and then the Putin regime to fall after that.
The stakes couldn't be higher with all those nukes over there.
I'm not so sure. If he stands down he's a dead man and he knows it. I think he's buying time.
No, the devil you know – Putin – is not better than the devil you don’t
Stop believing Kremlin talking points about the dire scenarios of a Putin defeat in Ukraine
michaelmcfaul.substack.com
I'm guessing morale among the Wagner rank and file is not great right now.
Who gets to Prigozhin first? Putin or unhappy Wagner Group members?
Who gets to Prigozhin first? Putin or unhappy Wagner Group members?
Yeah who knows. I'm taking a step back here, it's so, so hard to trust info coming from any source over there.
Quick give me every game theory outcome for russian victory in ukraine then give me every outcome when they lose and tell me which ones we should root for.
Nato gonna nato. This is the best possible outcome at this stage. If russia crushed ukraine like they thought they would we could be in the middle of ww3.
Because you dont know what you dont know. Just proving my point. You acting like Russia walking into poland after a swift victory in ukraine is impossible, shows you arent thinking very far out in front. Questioning me on it makes you game for abstract thinking discussion. Unless thats out of thr question for you.
I mean, it's not even an unknown that Poland was watching very anxiously this entire time. They definitely were.
Nobody knows what they don’t know, including all the Kremlinologist’s and national security experts on the board.
Where do I say “walking into Poland after a swift victory in Ukraine is impossible” ?? I never said that. I’ll go on record saying I think that’s highly unlikely, but I never said it’s impossible. I simply asked who said Putin was potentially invading Poland next. All I asked was what/who is the source.
You wanna throw down on Russian history with me bring it. But I suggest you improve your reading comprehension skills-they suck.
I disagree.
Putin is the devil you know. I’d take him over the wild card of Prigozin, and if I had to bet I’d guess most national security folks around the world would too. This is similar in some ways to Iraq. Saddam was a bad dude, but at least there was stability.
Also I disagree with the idea this will weaken Putin. It certainly could, no doubt. But he also might be able to use it to strengthen his hand. Kinda like Hitlers response to the 20 July plot. We’ll soon see how much of a political manipulator magician Putin is.
I think the best outcome though would be to see some moderate politicians and generals take control and boot out both Putin and Prigozin.
That is just not a rational outlook. Lots of what ifs and unknowns, yes. But that doesn't mean at all that none of them could be good.
I think taking the devil you know is a fundamentally flawed rationale. That's a platitude that means no more than "defense wins championship."
Better them than Russia
Considering Belarus is basically a puppet state of Russia it won't be long before Prigozhin mysteriously dies from a fall out of a hotel window or whatever. He challenged Putin and that doesn't end well.
Yes but POTUS would probably give Putin a pass if it is only a small invasion.
Exactly, and how can Prigozhin not know that? Is he that dumb?
Haha! “When traveling to Belarus.” No mention about guaranteeing safety once he’s there.
We oughta go get him, offer him a nice living with witness protection in some small town out west, and debrief the bejeezus out of him.
Putin will find him!! Putin is KGB material!!! Plus, he has little man syndrome!!!
So the Wagner group made Putin their bitch in the worlds eye. Well I didn't have that on my geopolitical bingo card....
Wagner marched on Moscow and just turned around..... after Putin caved to their demands to have certain suits removed from their defense ministry.
Wagner marched on Moscow and just turned around..... after Putin caved to their demands to have certain suits removed from their defense ministry.
