This has been painful to read… Seems to reason these are some of the puts and takes for grocery prices:
Tariffs should increase costs, but I’m guessing that tariffs on common groceries will be minimal.
At least in the short term, reducing illegal farm labor should increase costs. We need to replace with work visas so these people are here legally and we have the cheap manpower needed. They don’t need protection from the government on minimum wage and other work protections. They don’t have it now anyways. Vet them, register them, make them pay taxes, kick them out if they break the law. Very simple.
Lowering energy costs should lower prices.
Removing some regulations could lower prices, but I’m hoping RFK adds regulation to our food supply. We desperately need to remove harmful ingredients. If they do that, short term costs should increase.
TL;DR, not sure how prices actually come down. Maybe they do - not sure. Not betting on it though. I’m fine if they don’t if we clean up the immigration issue, diversify away from Chinese imports and improve the quality of our food supply. Hopefully all of those things happen.