Let's talk polls and betting odds
- Thread starter leetp
- Start date
Oh I know. But it just reminded me of the dorks who cowered at home or rode around with masks on by themselves. Woof. What a shitty way to have lived through the pandemic. I work with people all over the country and life must have really sucked in many blue areas.
Would she be cool with you donating to Clemson’s NIL collective? Join the board bet!
I'm not so sure. Isn't the GOP doing substantially better in mail-in and early voting, and in some cases, outperforming Dems? As I said, Repubs are at a logistical disadvantage in traditional ground game, but the pivot on mail-in and early voting indicates somebody in the party knows what they are doing.
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I would if the winner did not have to contribute at all (I'm firmly anti fake NIL).
Yes, compared to 2020 they are doing much better. Trump has done extremely well with social media this time around too. It was a very small margin in 2020 and I don't think the dems can get away with just the anti-trump/Never Trumper vote this time.
2 assasination attemps this summer and Trump ending Joe Biden after the first debate was a big blow. The last second anointing of Harris who is clearly struggling in interviews was not a good choice, either. A moderate dem would have been better. Or, hell, even allowing their party to elect a candidate would have been a decent idea.
Argument was ruined with the Wired and Guardian links, not that CBS and NBC were much better.
Republicans have been pushing early voting this election. I’m not sure about mail in voting but I know rural republicans love in person early voting. The thing is, is that cannibalizing their Election Day turnout? The democrats really emphasized early mail in voting last time but I don’t think they are now. They’re still getting some good numbers though. The discrepancy is mainly in person vs mail in.
The ground game is still important to mail in early voting because you want to make sure you get folks to turn in their ballot. Agreed that it’s not quite as important for republicans because a lot of their voters are rural but it’s still important if you ask me.
Quoting a "republican" in an article written by a committed leftist does not make for a balanced piece.
What’s wrong with wired? Isn’t it tech related? And I don’t see the issue with the guardian either. You may disagree with their conclusions or analysis but their reporting is usually accurate. They’re quoting republicans who are saying they’re worried
It is mostly tech related...but they are WAY left on politics. They make no attempt at balance.
The author determines the tenor of the article. It's not hard to find an anti-Trumper to play along.
If they were an anti Trumper they wouldn’t be working to get Trump elected
Yep. That was fairly predictable. That's why I asked for the articles. Some of the same usual suspects. Including WAPO, who just had a mass exodous because their owner didn't allow the publication to endorse Kamala. He basically allowed the partisan "journalists" to out themselves and leave.
I also love when people try to cite "republicans" to bolster their argument against Trump. In many cases, these are not objective Republicans. They are Never Trumpers. Never Trumpers like Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger and others who are without a home because they put personal disputes ahead of what's good for the country.
You have become increasingly unhinged lately. Your rhetoric is worrisome.
With that said, would you like to put a $100 wager on the outcome? What's a $100 between friends anyway.
I just meant you could read it as Vegas truly thinks Don is gonna win.
Or, more accurately, gamblers think Don is going to win. But I bet the majority of sports gamblers are Republicans, and a lot of people gamble with their heart instead of their brain.
Basically just saying that I wouldn’t read a ton into Don having a 67% chance of winning. That seems waaaay too massive.
The stock market and certain sectors that would do well under a Trump administration have been doing very well as the odds have shifted in Trumps favor.
Polls are one thing. Money is another. Trump was not the favorite this time last year in the betting market and lost.
Oh, I misread you. I did some quick sleuthing... per this one Umass-Lowel poll...
"Respondents who support legalized sports gambling appear to be in sync regardless of their politics, with 34% of those who identify as Democrats and 33% of those who identify as Republicans in favor, the poll found."
Not that it necessarily proves anything, but I don't think Repubs have an outsized bent toward gambling.
Yeah. I think it’s at least interesting that Vegas thinks Don is going to easily win.
It's technically not in "win easily" territory yet at -200. In fact, it's only just barely in "likely" territory for Trump. He probably has to get to -350-400 to be in "win easy" territory.
I measure my rhetoric against your pompous surliness about the red wave that was going to crush us in 2022. By that measure, I'm Gentle Ben.
I'm already in the bet thread - did you forget you responded to my post there?
So is that a no, as well?
You seem confident she is going to win. Why not take my $100?
The other key thing to point out is what the betting odds are for PA. It's hard to see Trump winning if he doesn't flip PA. While Betfair has Trump at around 63%, they have PA at around 56%. Wisky, which he'd have to get if he misses on PA is at 53%.
All in all, you'd rather have Trump's poll numbers and betting odds, but this thing is TIGHT.
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By the way, no poll has had Harris up in PA since Bloomberg which concluded on 10/20 with Harris +2. Everyone since has either been even or Trump by as much as 3.
Him pulling up to the media in a garbage truck today was the ultimate troll
Hmm Im not a socialist, jew hater, white with blonde hair and blue eyes, Im mixed race and married to an Asian lady for 18 years. My grandfather fought in WW2 against those people and was wounded crossing the Rhine. Im a US Army Infantry vet myself. So fuk you and your racist bs. Your side has zero ideas thats why you have to resort to this bs projecting and name calling. This is why I really dont care to share a country with you anymore. Wish the country would have a peaceful divorce, but I know the left wont allow it to be peaceful...There is a reason almost all genocides have been committed by leftist the last 150 years, you are a cancer that wont go away. You have shown we cant even live together anymore. Ever since the Reps won the house in 1994 you people cant stop calling people names like Nazi's. The right in the US has very little in common with that party. Your party has way more in common with the Nazi's, see the Nazi platform, see your hatred of jews and your low opinión of people of color. So F you and the Jim Crowe loving pedo party you support...
Yeah -200 is basically a 4.5 point favorite. And you could argue it’s an away game for Trump due to the popular vote. So certainly no blowout.
And pulling a shift at McDonald's. Hate the guy if you must, but the dude is a tireless worker.
Just curious but what does the popular vote have to do with anything? Especially in this context.
Many pollsters reason that if the popular vote is within 2%, Donald Trump wins the electoral college comfortably
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Yeah i mean at the end of the day it's about getting to 270. If he wins GA, and PA he will win.
And you think $25mm is enough to move a market with over $2billion traded?
I think not
The French guy thing is just a liberal talking point to try and say the betting markets are not legitimate. There are dozens of betting markets out there with billions being wagered. Trump is -200 at Bovada currently. He was +145 this time last election.
Yeah she's a terrible candidate. The establishment dems are simply relying on the Never Trump support. Nobody who is being objective believes she is the best candidate or brings in a lot of enthusiasm. People are overwhelmingly voting for her because the establishment anointed her the candidate and they simply do not like Trump. The same people would vote for a bag of baseballs before voting for Trump.
They could have went in several different directions including allowing the party to vote for their candidate but they didn't. The establishment chose her because she is easily steered and controlled. She has no real strong beliefs or convictions. If nothing else, the past month we have seen that as her poll numbers and odds dropped.
Keep forgetting to circle back to that as well. The sheer volume dominates even the largest single contributors. That, and for nearly every market influence, there is typically a propitiate counter. Again, betting markets fair about as well as the best polling long run...which is the pick the winner about 75% of the time.
Latest betting market pull as of about 9:10 AM EDT:
| Trump | Harris |
BetOnline | 65.5 | 37.7 |
Betfair | 62.9 | 37.3 |
Betsson | 66.7 | 38.5 |
Bovada | 66.7 | 37.0 |
Bwin | 66.7 | 38.5 |
Points Bet | 65.4 | 40.0 |
Polymarket | 65.0 | 34.9 |
Smarkets | 61.7 | 38.2 |
Average | 65.1 | 37.8 |
That was one of the angles I was perusing with @Spencer_York ...if poll calculus were underestimating Harris support, wouldn't we be seeing that in early voting? Thus far, there has been a surge in GOP voting nearly across the board--and certainly nation-wide. To Mr. York's point on this, does this pull from election day votes? Maybe, but voting early allows more opportunity to vote, which "should" increase total votes. With GOP appreciably outperforming prior elections on early and mail-in voting, this "should" lead to more GOP votes cast.
In PA, however, GOP does lag Dems in mail-in balloting (there is no in-person early voting in PA). What I am still trying to ascertain is if the GOP is performing better, even if that are not outperforming the Dems.
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