Let's talk polls and betting odds

[clemsontiger02]

The race remains too close to call. Anyone who says otherwise is pushing a narrative.

Harris holds narrow lead over Trump in 'blue wall' states Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin: poll

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in the "blue wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to new polls.

www.foxnews.com

 

[leetp]

New South Carolina poll today has Trump only up +7. He's obviously going to win it but that+the Kansas poll show some slippage

"A" new South Carolina poll...
There is also "A" MN poll that shows Harris is only +3. FTR, I don't buy it or the SC poll, but which one would indicate a more dramatic slippage?

Also, there is no serious polling going on in SC. The ones I am looking at right now are from ECU and Winthrop...both of which have Trump +13 and +10, respectively... although they are somewhat dated. at 10/22 and 9/29, respectively.

 

[okclem]

Kamala blowout coming

 

[scotchtiger]

538 Updates:

• Harris now only up 1.2% in national popular vote. Biden was +8.4% in 2020.
• Trump leads in NV (+0.1), PA (+0.3), NC (+1.3), GA (+1.6) and AZ (+2.3)
• Harris leads in WI (+0.7), MI (+1.1)
• Trump wins with PA/NC/GA/AZ

 

[leetp]

538 Updates:

• Harris now only up 1.2% in national popular vote. Biden was +8.4% in 2020.
• Trump leads in NV (+0.1), PA (+0.3), NC (+1.3), GA (+1.6) and AZ (+2.3)
• Harris leads in WI (+0.7), MI (+1.1)
• Trump wins with PA/NC/GA/AZ

To be sure, Trumper's have to be uncomfortable with such slim margins (I know I am), but you'd rather have a positive slim margin than a negative slim margin. Especially went juxtaposed with past poll tendency to underrepresent Trump. Yes, pollsters have sworn they have corrected the errors of pervious polls. Yes, they could now be overestimating Trump support. Yes, that could all be crap and they've changed nothing because pollsters are arrogant elitist and think that their mostly old methods will prove correct this time.

 

[leetp]

Anyone have updated data on PA mail-in ballot numbers by party affiliation? Everything I can find on this is old. 😞