True, and cause to investigate. And Hillary paid foreign intelligence operative to construct the Russian dossier.
Let's talk polls and betting odds
- Thread starter leetp
- Start date
I totally understand the rationale, but I just don't think it's going to take that long this time. Covid really slowed things down the last time. Wednesday morning might be a stretch, but I don't think it'll go much longer.
Normally early election day projections rely heavily on exit polling. I wonder how reliable that is going to be given that more than half the country voted early?
Last edited:
I feel like I am having deja vu. You said this bullshit in 2020 and the stock market has reached record highs since then.
Get a new schtick
Im just telling you what will happen today or tomorrow. Not what will happen in 4 years.
If she wins, the market sells off.
My point is, the market rallying is a good sign for Trump.
Pa will take some time. The early results will come from rural counties that have historically looked strong for Republicans. Then it has shifted to Democrats when the urban areas start reporting.
Concern that Trump will declare victory on early results and then challenge the change
He is absolutely going to do that. He has said as much. He will claim victory, mouth breathers will think that means he actually won, and will therefore claim any votes counted after that moment are fake.
Trump is banking on the stupidity of his followers.
Every bookie on this list is showing some combination of incremental improvement for Trump or incremental worsening for Harris...save Bwin, which is holding steady.
| 8:15 AM Tue | | 10:45 AM Tue | |
| Trump | Harris | Trump | Harris |
BetOnline | 63.9 | 39.2 | 64.9 | 30.8 |
Betfair | 61.4 | 39.1 | 61.7 | 38.5 |
Betsson | 60.6 | 42.7 | 60.6 | 42.7 |
Bovada | 61.5 | 41.7 | 62.5 | 42.7 |
Bwin | 62.3 | 42.6 | 62.3 | 42.6 |
Points Bet | 64.5 | 40.8 | 64.5 | 40.8 |
Polymarket | 61.1 | 39.1 | 62.7 | 37.3 |
Smarkets | 60.2 | 39.7 | 60.6 | 39.1 |
Average | 61.9 | 40.6 | 62.5 | 39.3 |
there are going to be a lot of disappointed gamblers. Serves them right for trusting trump's campaign.
Yep. He has one playbook, and he uses it repeatedly.
Its all been covered in this thread.
Abortion will drive Kamala's win.
She will win PA, NV and MI.
Dems will outperform the polls like they did in 2022.
Women will show out for her.
trump is relying on an unreliable younger male demographic to carry the day.
In all of these polls that you claim to believe, she has a higher favorability rating.
This is not 2016. People know who trump is and they don't like him. I know quite a few republicans who will not vote for him and want him to ride off into the sunset.
I have always felt that Trump won in 2016 due to Dems being overconfident due to the polls, and it may have repressed the turnout.
I really wonder if the closeness of the polls will again cause Dems to over perform polling.
I honestly don't think the MAGA world truly understands how the rest of America feels about Trump. I've never seen a candidate in my lifetime who is so detested by one side.
I really wonder if the closeness of the polls will again cause Dems to over perform polling.
I honestly don't think the MAGA world truly understands how the rest of America feels about Trump. I've never seen a candidate in my lifetime who is so detested by one side.
Last edited:
So, I just pulled the Atlas-Poll-US-Key-States-Wisconsin-04-11-2024.pdf poll results.
They have it as Tammy Baldwin and Eric Hovde. Where did you see the Tim Kaine thing?
Last edited:
The market is trading in a way that favors trump
Spy up
Djt up
Tsla up
Vix Down
BTC up
Setting up for the landslide
Spy up
Djt up
Tsla up
Vix Down
BTC up
Setting up for the landslide
This narrative is getting so tired and completely ignores that the FBI quickly determined the dossier was irrelevant and it only led to one FISA warrant against Carter Page. The Republican investigation into Russian collusion was prompted by the meeting Papadopoulous had with the Australian ambassador, where he told him Russia was trying to peddle some anti-Hillary dirt.
Trey Gowdy himself said the investigation had nothing to do with the dossier and started well before they even knew about it. I've covered this repeatedly on this board and no one had disproved it because it's the truth, but what a masterful psyop the magas have pulled off by making their cult believe this was a Hillary inspired Democratic operation.
Re: polling performance.... I think that's a reasonable supposition. It's something I've been questioning myself.
I don't contend to know the MAGA world--whatever that means--but I travel up and down the east coast regularly and out west to California occasionally, and I continue to be amazed by the level of Trump support. Keep in mind that during much of this time I was trying to convince everyone I could to vote against Trump in the primary.
Regarding my stance on Trump in the primary, my reasoning was that Trump lost to a historically awful candidate in Joe Biden. That race should not have been close to any other decent republican nominee. The same is the case for Harris; she is AWFUL. This race should not be close. Trump is a polarizing figure, and I did not feel like having to endure the media acrimony directed toward Trump for another four years. I wanted Someone who could carry out a Trump-like agenda, but be less polarizing and better able to articulate the case for the various policy initiatives. Alas, we could not--so I am left to vote for Trump again. And I did this morning and I am desperately hoping he wins.
Last edited:
I vote against Trump, even though I personally would probably benefit from the tax breaks etc. I just can't stand for that guy being the symbol of America. He's such a piece of shit, like historically shitty human.
With Harris I have some confidence that the cabinet and people around her will be at least competent and have shown some willingness to compromise and get stuff done.
Trump has zero discipline, nobody of consequence wants to work for him. I have serious concerns of how s fitness mentally and certainly personal self control.
This is correct. The state stupidly doesn't allow any counting to start until the polls are closed.
Yoshi still up on his stool yelling about his soon to be potus.
Key early voting numbers in PA:
Early voting is way down in PA for the Dems. (1.7M in 2020 vs 995,674 in 2024).
Total EV in PA was 2.6M in 2020; its less than 1.8M in 2024 (i.e., about 26% of 2020 election vote total).
Repub EV is up almost 10% from 2020, though it does trail Dems. (55.7% D, 32.8% R, 11.4% I)
Given that only about only 26% of the vote total from last election as been cast, there are a lot of day-of votes in PA, and day-off votes tend to vote Republican
election.lab.ufl.edu
Early voting is way down in PA for the Dems. (1.7M in 2020 vs 995,674 in 2024).
Total EV in PA was 2.6M in 2020; its less than 1.8M in 2024 (i.e., about 26% of 2020 election vote total).
Repub EV is up almost 10% from 2020, though it does trail Dems. (55.7% D, 32.8% R, 11.4% I)
Given that only about only 26% of the vote total from last election as been cast, there are a lot of day-of votes in PA, and day-off votes tend to vote Republican
» 2024 General Election Early Vote – Pennsylvania UF Election Lab
Last edited:
Many of those Republicans are like me. Cross over votes.Key early voting numbers in PA:
Early voting is way down in PA for the Dems. (1.7M in 2020 vs 995,674 in 2024).
Total EV in PA was 2.6M in 2020; its less than 1.8M in 2024 (i.e., about 26% of 2020 election vote total).
Repub EV is up almost 10% from 2020, though it does trail Dems. (55.7% D, 32.8% R, 11.4% I)
Given that only about only 26% of the vote total from last election as been cast, there are a lot of day-of votes in PA, and day-off votes tend to vote Republican
» 2024 General Election Early Vote – Pennsylvania UF Election Lab
Let's be honest, if Kamala wins what will get done with a Republican house and Senate? That's one thing both sides always forget. Without full power you are always going to be up against a wall.
GOP officials in 3 states move to block DOJ observers from entering polling places
Officials in Florida, Texas and Missouri said in recent days they would not allow Justice Department monitors to do what they have been doing for almost 60 years.
www.nbcnews.com
Some are, no doubt, but where is the vote volume going to come from? Biden carried this state by less than 82k votes, or about 1.2% over Trump. Curious if you have anything more to go on other than just a feeling?
Don't think there was any information to be gleened from the betting markets this election cycle. Most polls went out within the margin of error or a slight, but meaningless, favorite to Trump.
To me the stock market traded with the clear expectation of a Trump victory today. If Harris were to win tonight, i would expect some sort of sell off in the overnight market. We will see how right wall street is.
Have fun watching everyone.
To me the stock market traded with the clear expectation of a Trump victory today. If Harris were to win tonight, i would expect some sort of sell off in the overnight market. We will see how right wall street is.
Have fun watching everyone.
Latest from the betting markets... slight nudge in Harris' direction
| 8:15 AM Tue | | 10:45 AM Tue | | 4:30 PM Tue | |
| Trump | Harris | Trump | Harris | Trump | Harris |
BetOnline | 63.9 | 39.2 | 64.9 | 30.8 | 62.3 | 40.8 |
Betfair | 61.4 | 39.1 | 61.7 | 38.5 | 61.7 | 38.5 |
Betsson | 60.6 | 42.7 | 60.6 | 42.7 | 63.6 | 41.7 |
Bovada | 61.5 | 41.7 | 62.5 | 42.7 | 62.3 | 42.6 |
Bwin | 62.3 | 42.6 | 62.3 | 42.6 | 62.3 | 42.6 |
Points Bet | 64.5 | 40.8 | 64.5 | 40.8 | 64.5 | 40.8 |
Polymarket | 61.1 | 39.1 | 62.7 | 37.3 | 61.1 | 39.0 |
Smarkets | 60.2 | 39.7 | 60.6 | 39.1 | 60.6 | 39.7 |
Average | 61.9 | 40.6 | 62.5 | 39.3 | 62.3 | 40.7 |
The right to receive life saving medical attention from your doctor without the government involving itself, wins this election. Think about that.
