Open honest discussion ref COV19

[Nobarscanholdme]

Perusing the threads on our boards, it's beyond obvious there are 2 schools of camp. Those that are ready to open back up the economy regardless of the death toll, and those that want a national lockdown no matter how long it takes.

Posters that would otherwise have a beer together and hang out talking Tiger football, are hurling insults at each left and right and dug in on their postions come hell or high water. Lets have a civil, open discussion as to when you think we should resume normal life as much as possible.

I am one that is ready to open things back up if we see ANY evidence that the worst is behind us. To me, short of hundreds of thousands dying, the irreparable harm to tens of millions economically will have a far greater impact than the virus. Of course, my position is formed by the fact that i dont know anyone that has been hospitalized or died from the virus, yet i know many that have already lost their jobs and worried sick about their financial future. Others have had friends, family, or loved one very sick or even die which has no doubt shaped their opinon as well.

To me, at some point you have to weigh the economic impact of the economic shutdown vs the inevitable loss of life and make a decision. No doubt this is being discussed at the highest levels of govt. Lets hear your reasoned opinion, keeping in mind there is no right or wrong answer here. Shooting for perfection is unattainable. Damn tough decision either way, but myself am willing to keep status quote till end of April, but thereafter, i think its time to keep those most at risk inside, while trying to resume everyday life for the rest of us. If we all need to wear a mask for a while, so be it.

For those that want to shut it down as long as it takes, at what cost?
What say you?

 

[scotchtiger]

I say a civil conversation is impossible without paragraphs.

 

[Nobarscanholdme]

I say a civil conversation is impossible without paragraphs.

Better?

 

[Watson to Renfrow]

I’ve kept out of it on here for the most part. Hate that I had to put a few on ignore, but some are just over the top and just want to argue.

Either way, I hope there is some sort of relief from the banking community. I feel like the American people bailed them out last time. Now it’s time for them to relieve mortgages for a period. I don’t think they should do so interest free, but they sure as hell got an interest free loan from us last time. They are doing it now in the UK. I talked to my buddy from Scotland today and they have a few things in place that make some sense.

 

[stickM]

What would happen if you extinguish the main body of a wildfire, then walk away from the remaining small fires around the edges?

 

[yungan]

Close shoe stores, jewelry store, gift shops etc etc but Walmart because they sell groceries still off all of these things.
Did Walmart write who opens and who closes

 

[Hilton Head Tiger]

m

Close shoe stores, jewelry store, gift shops etc etc but Walmart because they sell groceries still off all of these things.
Did Walmart write who opens and who closes

I agree. It is not fair to allow Walmart, Target etc to sell anything but grocery store items if competing retail is forced to shut down

 

[poates6]

I am in the camp that believes once we have done what we need to for the medical community to be able to handle this we start rolling.

People are going to die now or later from this virus. By the end of April I expect us to be in a spot where we have enough ventilators, beds, masks, etc.... to be able to open things back up.

 

[tigertommy1]

I struggle with this situation.

Have some family members who I know would/will not survive if they are exposed, mainly due to age and/or health conditions.

Also own couple small businesses that are probably a longshot to survive the longer the economy suffers (in SC).

I wish we could test as many as possible to find out how many have been exposed and are walking around now. I have a feeling that MANY people have been exposed. MANY more than is known. I really believe that when we have that capability that we will look back and see we dodged a bullet.

I think/hope we are getting to the point very soon that some very difficult decisions will be made.

I do believe that thoroughly testing people for exposure would enable some sense of normalcy to return.

Some countries that are now testing for exposure are showing that MANY more people were exposed and didn’t show symptoms (nor die) than was previously known. That is a real game changer in terms of how the virus is viewed. Be interesting to see that train of thought as we get more data

 

[Idoconcrete]

What would happen if you extinguish the main body of a wildfire, then walk away from the remaining small fires around the edges?

Thats exactly how it is done..a contol line is established. When the fire has reached the control line its usually out of fuel to burn
Also starting a burnout fire to burn up potential fuel prior to the wildfire getting to it is another useful tool...

You city folk dont know much

 

[Idoconcrete]

m


I agree. It is not fair to allow Walmart, Target etc to sell anything but grocery store items if competing retail is forced to shut down

But what if I need some socks or a new pair of underwears

 

[kgwillison]

I am in the camp that believes once we have done what we need to for the medical community to be able to handle this we start rolling.

People are going to die now or later from this virus. By the end of April I expect us to be in a spot where we have enough ventilators, beds, masks, etc.... to be able to open things back up.

You are a crazy optimist. No way the nation “Re-opens” at end of April. No way. The peak in NYC is 2 weeks out. Detroit is later. Miami is later. Washington, DC is later.

We can pretend to reopen the economy but people are not going to go out to restaurants or take subways or attend movie theaters until they are convinced there is no risk to them by doing so. Do you think airlines will be filled on May 1 if the economy “reopens” that day? Airlines will be mostly empty through the summer no matter what.

Do you think industry conferences of several thousand people will resume this fall? I don’t. I expect every organization will cancel their fall meetings within a couple of months.

As for the request about banks (above poster) ... banks don’t have the capital to pay everyone’s mortgage for an extended period of time. That is the beauty of the Federal Reserve. They have created a facility that will allow lenders to offer forbearance for borrowers for up to 12 months on their mortgages. The payments will have to eventually be paid by borrowers, likely at the end of the term or when the home is sold or loan refinanced. But without the Federal Reserve, it could not happen.

 

[TigerDentGuy]

You are a crazy optimist. No way the nation “Re-opens” at end of April. No way. The peak in NYC is 2 weeks out. Detroit is later. Miami is later. Washington, DC is later.

We can pretend to reopen the economy but people are not going to go out to restaurants or take subways or attend movie theaters until they are convinced there is no risk to them by doing so. Do you think airlines will be filled on May 1 if the economy “reopens” that day? Airlines will be mostly empty through the summer no matter what.

Do you think industry conferences of several thousand people will resume this fall? I don’t. I expect every organization will cancel their fall meetings within a couple of months.

As for the request about banks (above poster) ... banks don’t have the capital to pay everyone’s mortgage for an extended period of time. That is the beauty of the Federal Reserve. They have created a facility that will allow lenders to offer forbearance for borrowers for up to 12 months on their mortgages. The payments will have to eventually be paid by borrowers, likely at the end of the term or when the home is sold or loan refinanced. But without the Federal Reserve, it could not happen.

Not going to dispute a lot of what you said but if restaurants were open they'd be packed. No doubt.

 

[padtigers]

First and foremost we need to get a grip on how and where this virus started. We can medicated and vaccinate all we want but finding out its origin is key in my eyes as well. We have to, in the near future, open the economy back up. I want us to see an end in sight before we do so but we have to figure this out. The biggest question I have is the numbers. How are we so sure of the numbers being accurate. Do we have a grasps of the amount of people carrying the virus? I do not think so. Are we sure all these deaths are directly related to the Virus? I am not sure either. Honestly the virus is scary but the unknown factors are what frighten me. If we had more facts and more evidence we would at least feel like we knew what we were fighting.

 

[OCG89]

My recent understanding is that the real impact to SC is yet to come. Smart people are saying it’ll get bad in SC & charleston in 3-4 weeks with early May being peak.

I’m with you OP. Learn all with can & continue to adapt & protect ourselves. Virus may still be out there for 5-6 months and approved cure by FDA May be a year. But military believes in the hybrid drug remedy enough to be giving it to their exposed personnel. I also admit this is all one off info. Not direct to me.

But surely there’s a way to get back to almost normal by June. Alter business delivery method. Curb pickups. Schools out summer anyway for kid control. Some sort of well designed plan by leadership better than McMaster.

 

[Nobarscanholdme]

You are a crazy optimist. No way the nation “Re-opens” at end of April. No way. The peak in NYC is 2 weeks out. Detroit is later. Miami is later. Washington, DC is later.

We can pretend to reopen the economy but people are not going to go out to restaurants or take subways or attend movie theaters until they are convinced there is no risk to them by doing so. Do you think airlines will be filled on May 1 if the economy “reopens” that day? Airlines will be mostly empty through the summer no matter what.

Do you think industry conferences of several thousand people will resume this fall? I don’t. I expect every organization will cancel their fall meetings within a couple of months.

As for the request about banks (above poster) ... banks don’t have the capital to pay everyone’s mortgage for an extended period of time. That is the beauty of the Federal Reserve. They have created a facility that will allow lenders to offer forbearance for borrowers for up to 12 months on their mortgages. The payments will have to eventually be paid by borrowers, likely at the end of the term or when the home is sold or loan refinanced. But without the Federal Reserve, it could not happen.

I hear your point, but we have been hearing "2 more weeks" for the last 4 weeks. I may be wrong, but saw in another thread a tweet from 2 or 3 weeks ago the hospitalizations, icu beds, vents, deaths etc projections for "in 2 weeks". This was for NY which as we know is the epicenter for the US. Keep in mind, this tweet was from 2- 3 weeks ago projecting what we would have now.

Bottom line, what we have now is far less than the projections ( at least for the model referenced). It was off 300% (for NY). The doomsayers keep moving the goalposts.

I do agree with your point, even if we open back up, the thawing out will be gradual. On the other hand, we are a mobile society and i can see alot of people saying F it, and eating out, flying, restaurants etc. Id prolly be in that camp (but bring my Mom food so she can stay in).

Testing for everyone (with or w/o) symptoms would help big time.

 

[padtigers]

My recent understanding is that the real impact to SC is yet to come. Smart people are saying it’ll get bad in SC & charleston in 3-4 weeks with early May being peak.

I’m with you OP. Learn all with can & continue to adapt & protect ourselves. Virus may still be out there for 5-6 months and approved cure by FDA May be a year. But military believes in the hybrid drug remedy enough to be giving it to their exposed personnel. I also admit this is all one off info. Not direct to me.

But surely there’s a way to get back to almost normal by June. Alter business delivery method. Curb pickups. Schools out summer anyway for kid control. Some sort of well designed plan by leadership better than McMaster.

I keep reading more and more about the "off label" drug that seems to have some great results. What is the hold up on this drug being given to patients that are in the worst shape? I mean a bill was signed where a patient near death has a right to choose. Is this situation not deemed to fit that bill? I honestly want everyone suffering to have a chance. If the drug I have read about is the best we have why not run with it?

 

[TigerDentGuy]

I hear your point, but we have been hearing "2 more weeks" for the last 4 weeks. I may be wrong, but saw in another thread a tweet from 2 or 3 weeks ago the hospitalizations, icu beds, vents, deaths etc projections for "in 2 weeks". Keep in mind, this tweet was from 2- 3 weeks ago projecting what we would have now. Bottom line, what we have now is far less than the projections ( at least for the model referenced). It was off 300%. The doomsayers keep moving the goalposts.

It'll continue to be off.

 

[padtigers]

I hear your point, but we have been hearing "2 more weeks" for the last 4 weeks. I may be wrong, but saw in another thread a tweet from 2 or 3 weeks ago the hospitalizations, icu beds, vents, deaths etc projections for "in 2 weeks". Keep in mind, this tweet was from 2- 3 weeks ago projecting what we would have now. Bottom line, what we have now is far less than the projections ( at least for the model referenced). It was off 300%. The doomsayers keep moving the goalposts.

I have been thinking that those models are the absolute worst case scenario. I trust our smart medical staffs around this country to get this figured out and headed off as soon as possible. My fear is will they have the resources.

 

[ClemsonGentleman]

The decision to open back up is a difficult risk assessment. I am in the open things up, after peaks, gradually in individual areas. Allow antibody testing to determine those people in the workforce that can work without concern of infection or infecting others. Older people and those people with comorbidities will continue to quarantine until there is a treatment, vaccine or herd immunity develops. The questions to debate are what do people in the know consider when the peak has passed and how individual areas are determined.

BTW - My money is on Gilead's antiviral treatment.

 

[CU91ENGR]

I hear your point, but we have been hearing "2 more weeks" for the last 4 weeks. I may be wrong, but saw in another thread a tweet from 2 or 3 weeks ago the hospitalizations, icu beds, vents, deaths etc projections for "in 2 weeks". This was for NY which as we know is tje epicenter for the US. Keep in mind, this tweet was from 2- 3 weeks ago projecting what we would have now.
Bottom line, what we have now is far less than the projections ( at least for the model referenced). It was off 300%. The doomsayers keep moving the goalposts.

SC is starting to spread. I believe there have been over 200 new cases at least the last 2 days, and we're up to 40 deaths. I don't think SC will be anything like NY, but I definitely think in two weeks the severity will sink in down here. Personal opinion: this virus has really highlighted one thing - this country is essentially a paycheck-to-paycheck society. I really hope that people will start living within their means and saving some money.

 

[ddot7]

First and foremost we need to get a grip on how and where this virus started. We can medicated and vaccinate all we want but finding out its origin is key in my eyes as well. We have to, in the near future, open the economy back up. I want us to see an end in sight before we do so but we have to figure this out. The biggest question I have is the numbers. How are we so sure of the numbers being accurate. Do we have a grasps of the amount of people carrying the virus? I do not think so. Are we sure all these deaths are directly related to the Virus? I am not sure either. Honestly the virus is scary but the unknown factors are what frighten me. If we had more facts and more evidence we would at least feel like we knew what we were fighting.

Without getting argumentative or judging what you’ve said, I can only interpret your question about the numbers to mean that you seem to think they may be less than what’s being reported because of your question, “Are we sure all these deaths are directly related to the Virus?” That seems to cast some doubt, am I incorrect in my interpretation?

I’d wait to respond until I know that’s what you mean but if so, why do you have doubts about the accuracy of the numbers?

 

[padtigers]

Without getting argumentative or judging what you’ve said, I can only interpret your question about the numbers to mean that you seem to think they may be less than what’s being reported because of your question, “Are we sure all these deaths are directly related to the Virus?” That seems to cast some doubt, am I incorrect in my interpretation?

I’d wait to respond until I know that’s what you mean but if so, why do you have doubts about the accuracy of the numbers?

Well I have read where some people that died had a positive test but the deaths may not have been related to the virus. Just curious how those determinations are made. Also the mortality rate could be off sense we asymptomatic people that will never be tested. So the numbers seem off to me I guess. Now I will admit I could be way off but that is something that has crossed my mind.

 

[Mikecpa1]

There is so much I don't know, but I do feel for all the people out of work, all the business that will fail. I am fortunate that I don't think it will have a disastrous effect on me, but the thought of being a husband, a father, that can't take care of his family is just plain awful.

Even if it all opens up tomorrow it will be too late for some people, some businesses. Things have changed.

 

[Cavitybacks]

You are a crazy optimist. No way the nation “Re-opens” at end of April. No way. The peak in NYC is 2 weeks out. Detroit is later. Miami is later. Washington, DC is later.

We can pretend to reopen the economy but people are not going to go out to restaurants or take subways or attend movie theaters until they are convinced there is no risk to them by doing so. Do you think airlines will be filled on May 1 if the economy “reopens” that day? Airlines will be mostly empty through the summer no matter what.

Do you think industry conferences of several thousand people will resume this fall? I don’t. I expect every organization will cancel their fall meetings within a couple of months.

As for the request about banks (above poster) ... banks don’t have the capital to pay everyone’s mortgage for an extended period of time. That is the beauty of the Federal Reserve. They have created a facility that will allow lenders to offer forbearance for borrowers for up to 12 months on their mortgages. The payments will have to eventually be paid by borrowers, likely at the end of the term or when the home is sold or loan refinanced. But without the Federal Reserve, it could not happen.

I don't know the answer, but I will make a bet that there will be more active cases in Sept than there are right now.

So do we just just stay shut down until 2021?

Again, I'm not suggesting we need to rush back and "open up the country" next week (whatever that means)

At some point, our mindset will just have to change. A vaccine will not be available in 2020.

 

[Nobarscanholdme]

SC is starting to spread. I believe there have been over 200 new cases at least the last 2 days, and we're up to 40 deaths. I don't think SC will be anything like NY, but I definitely think in two weeks the severity will sink in down here. Personal opinion: this virus has really highlighted one thing - this country is essentially a paycheck-to-paycheck society. I really hope that people will start living within their means and saving some money.

I agree american need to save more. But, many are losing their ability to earn a paycheck as mandated by their state. Who could have forseen that?

My fear if this is prolonged, millions more will be dependent on the government. We damn sure don't need that.

 

[CUT93]

The toughest thing for me is the unknown, particularly in the first couple of months. Hard to make informed decisions without good information. If you told me in January that we could go on with life as normal, make no changes at all and there would be less than a million deaths from the virus and the combined strain it would put on the health system, I would have signed up for that without a second thought. I know a million lives seems like a lot, and it is no matter how you define it. However, that would only be about a third more than than the number of deaths each year in the country under normal circumstances. I think the blow to the economy and the debt we have and will incur as a result is worse than losing a million lives. That may sound harsh, but I try take emotion out of situations like this because it can easily cloud judgment. If I lived in nyc right now I don't know that I could do that. It would be next to impossible to do that when you have friends, family, co workers who are sick, dying or in danger.
We already sacrifice tens of thousands(at a minimum) of lives every year for economic and reasons of convenience. If you look at the causes of death in the US every year, there are numerous ways we could stop a significant percentage of those.
We could easily go back to more of an agrarian society and save many, many lives every single year. There is very little need for restaurants, movie theaters, entertainment, recreation vehicles, etc. We don't need houses with granite counter tops, marble tile, cherry cabinets with soft close drawers, dishwashers. We as a society have already chosen to sacrifice lives to live the lifestyle we want (not need) to live. We could probably save 10,000+ lives every year just by lowering the speed limit. Put a 45 mph national speed limit to a vote and see how many people vote for it. Would you? We already put a price on human life, it is simply a matter of what your price is.

Once we have readily available tests that are accurate and quick, I would open everything back up in areas without much exposure. Test all workers before they start work on a regular basis. No large (hundreds of people) extended gatherings of people in close contact outside of factories/workplace where everyone is tested. I would completely shut off areas like nyc or other densely populated areas if cases started to spike. No one in or out. Just take as many common sense measures as possible without further crippling the economy.

 

[jmh9713]

You are a crazy optimist. No way the nation “Re-opens” at end of April. No way. The peak in NYC is 2 weeks out. Detroit is later. Miami is later. Washington, DC is later.

We can pretend to reopen the economy but people are not going to go out to restaurants or take subways or attend movie theaters until they are convinced there is no risk to them by doing so. Do you think airlines will be filled on May 1 if the economy “reopens” that day? Airlines will be mostly empty through the summer no matter what.

Do you think industry conferences of several thousand people will resume this fall? I don’t. I expect every organization will cancel their fall meetings within a couple of months.

As for the request about banks (above poster) ... banks don’t have the capital to pay everyone’s mortgage for an extended period of time. That is the beauty of the Federal Reserve. They have created a facility that will allow lenders to offer forbearance for borrowers for up to 12 months on their mortgages. The payments will have to eventually be paid by borrowers, likely at the end of the term or when the home is sold or loan refinanced. But without the Federal Reserve, it could not happen.

No, I dont think people will just jump back in the pool at all at once. This is going to take time. And honestly what you are referencing will not be a bad thing. You will have a section of the population that will absolutely jump at the chance to at least get back to surviving/providing. Let that group be your front line.

No matter when the national shutdown ends we will always experience the uncomfortable period when everything opens back up.

It will be a slow progression back to normalcy.

And you sure do have a lot of faith in the value of our dollar through this. The Federal Reserve used as a safety net through 6 months to a year. No way that holds up.

 

[broncosrb26]

We would be in a lot better situation if the entire country had done a 14 day self quarantine a month ago.

 

[AColdQuesalupa]

I’m so torn at this point. I was all for the shutdown a week ago and it seems like this is all just unreal. We are inches away from shutting down a state of 5.5 million when we have less than 2K cases confirmed. What’s the worst case of how many people could have it in SC right now? 5K? All of this for 100,000 out of work in just two weeks?

Just want things to be normal again

 

[Nobarscanholdme]

The toughest thing for me is the unknown, particularly in the first couple of months. Hard to make informed decisions without good information. If you told me in January that we could go on with life as normal, make no changes at all and there would be less than a million deaths from the virus and the combined strain it would put on the health system, I would have signed up for that without a second thought. I know a million lives seems like a lot, and it is no matter how you define it. However, that would only be about a third more than than the number of deaths each year in the country under normal circumstances. I think the blow to the economy and the debt we have and will incur as a result is worse than losing a million lives. That may sound harsh, but I try take emotion out of situations like this because it can easily cloud judgment. If I lived in nyc right now I don't know that I could do that. It would be next to impossible to do that when you have friends, family, co workers who are sick, dying or in danger.
We already sacrifice tens of thousands(at a minimum) of lives every year for economic and reasons of convenience. If you look at the causes of death in the US every year, there are numerous ways we could stop a significant percentage of those.
We could easily go back to more of an agrarian society and save many, many lives every single year. There is very little need for restaurants, movie theaters, entertainment, recreation vehicles, etc. We don't need houses with granite counter tops, marble tile, cherry cabinets with soft close drawers, dishwashers. We as a society have already chosen to sacrifice lives to live the lifestyle we want (not need) to live. We could probably save 10,000+ lives every year just by lowering the speed limit. Put a 45 mph national speed limit to a vote and see how many people vote for it. Would you? We already put a price on human life, it is simply a matter of what your price is.

Once we have readily available tests that are accurate and quick, I would open everything back up in areas without much exposure. Test all workers before they start work on a regular basis. No large (hundreds of people) extended gatherings of people in close contact outside of factories/workplace where everyone is tested. I would completely shut off areas like nyc or other densely populated areas if cases started to spike. No one in or out. Just take as many common sense measures as possible without further crippling the economy.

THIS

 

[kgwillison]

SC is starting to spread. I believe there have been over 200 new cases at least the last 2 days, and we're up to 40 deaths. I don't think SC will be anything like NY, but I definitely think in two weeks the severity will sink in down here. Personal opinion: this virus has really highlighted one thing - this country is essentially a paycheck-to-paycheck society. I really hope that people will start living within their means and saving some money.

I don’t want to sound like a smart ass, but how does a person making minimum wage ($10 an hour in SC or $20,000 a year) “live within their means AND save some money”?

Could you pay your rent, food bills, water, utilities, car payment, gasoline, insurance (auto and health) AND save money on $20,000 a year?

I couldn’t. This is reality for many, many people. I couldn’t make ends meet if my wife and I each earned minimum wage and we had $40,000 a year income.

Now imagine maybe a little higher wage but having rents and grocery bills and utilities in New York City or Washington, DC!

We all need to look at life through the eyes of the least among us and see what steps are needed to make their lives manageable. Saying they need to do a better job at spending and saving just doesn’t solve the bigger problems they are facing.

 

[Nobarscanholdme]

We would be in a lot better situation if the entire country had done a 14 day self quarantine a month ago.

Thats speculation, but then you're also talking adding 4 weeks to the front end of the millions already filing for unemployment. There are severe economic repercussions to your argument.

With all the scientists on CNN, NBC etc telling us to shut it down for 3-4 more months, they also need a panel of economists or business owners also reminding the public (and scientists) of the severe economic toll of doing this.

 

[kgwillison]

The toughest thing for me is the unknown, particularly in the first couple of months. Hard to make informed decisions without good information. If you told me in January that we could go on with life as normal, make no changes at all and there would be less than a million deaths from the virus and the combined strain it would put on the health system, I would have signed up for that without a second thought. I know a million lives seems like a lot, and it is no matter how you define it. However, that would only be about a third more than than the number of deaths each year in the country under normal circumstances. I think the blow to the economy and the debt we have and will incur as a result is worse than losing a million lives. That may sound harsh, but I try take emotion out of situations like this because it can easily cloud judgment. If I lived in nyc right now I don't know that I could do that. It would be next to impossible to do that when you have friends, family, co workers who are sick, dying or in danger.
We already sacrifice tens of thousands(at a minimum) of lives every year for economic and reasons of convenience. If you look at the causes of death in the US every year, there are numerous ways we could stop a significant percentage of those.
We could easily go back to more of an agrarian society and save many, many lives every single year. There is very little need for restaurants, movie theaters, entertainment, recreation vehicles, etc. We don't need houses with granite counter tops, marble tile, cherry cabinets with soft close drawers, dishwashers. We as a society have already chosen to sacrifice lives to live the lifestyle we want (not need) to live. We could probably save 10,000+ lives every year just by lowering the speed limit. Put a 45 mph national speed limit to a vote and see how many people vote for it. Would you? We already put a price on human life, it is simply a matter of what your price is.

Once we have readily available tests that are accurate and quick, I would open everything back up in areas without much exposure. Test all workers before they start work on a regular basis. No large (hundreds of people) extended gatherings of people in close contact outside of factories/workplace where everyone is tested. I would completely shut off areas like nyc or other densely populated areas if cases started to spike. No one in or out. Just take as many common sense measures as possible without further crippling the economy.

There isn’t going to be an area with little exposure.
The governor of Alabama refused to put a shelter in place order because, “Alabama isn’t California.” Well guess what? The per capita rate of COVID19 is now higher in Alabama than California. Why? Because California shut down.

Now, she finally DID put an order out. Too late for many.

 

[Nobarscanholdme]

There isn’t going to be an area with little exposure.
The governor of Alabama refused to put a shelter in place order because, “Alabama isn’t California.” Well guess what? The per capita rate of COVID19 is now higher in Alabama than California. Why? Because California shut down.

Now, she finally DID put an order out. Too late for many.

Whats the unemployment rate of Cali vs Bama as of this action? My point is, regardless of the goal to save lives, there is a tremendous economic toll that also needs to be factored in.
Not sure if accurate, but saw something that when you consider those that have had it and didnt know it (10 or more x the known cases) and the mortality rate of all those infected, we're basically sabotaging the worlds largest economy to save 1 out of every 700 Americans. If any where near true, the risk FAR outweighs the reward.

 

[jmh9713]

Without getting argumentative or judging what you’ve said, I can only interpret your question about the numbers to mean that you seem to think they may be less than what’s being reported because of your question, “Are we sure all these deaths are directly related to the Virus?” That seems to cast some doubt, am I incorrect in my interpretation?

I’d wait to respond until I know that’s what you mean but if so, why do you have doubts about the accuracy of the numbers?

Let me first say I am all good with staying shut down for April and May if it gets to that. If we get to June im starting to sweat a little bit that everything is going to crash, if we are in July still shut down our economy is toast and we are staring at the next Great Depression.

For those that do not know an estimated 7 MILLION PEOPLE DIED from the last Great Depression. They starved to death. So that is why i say just shutting down is not the answer to save lives. You are saving at most 200,000 and losing 7 MILLION. That is why i hate to see the medical person saying “you dont care about lives being saved”. That could not be further from the truth.

Here is the problem I have currentlt with Covid and its mortality rate. We assume Covid is the result of every death on a positive test. Whether that was the ultimate factor or not.

My issue with Covid mortality predictions (which are all over the place, everyone knows that. One day its 2 million, then its 36,000, then its 200,000)

Since many of us are experiencing homeschooling these days, it seems a good time for a math refresher. Once the number of infections is determined, this becomes the denominator in our public health calculation. The number of deaths is our numerator.

Numerator (number of deaths)/denominator (number of people infected) x 100 = infection fatality rate

We know the virus spreads very fast once it is introduced to a population. That means many of us in the general population are or were already infected with the virus- whether or not we have symptoms.


Testing rates - and counting methods - vary widely from country to country
Image: Our World in Data
However, instead of counting us all in the denominator, in many countries including the US, only people sick enough to go to the hospital are counted. People sick enough to go to the hospital are more likely to need critical care, and patients in critical condition are more likely to die than patients with mild symptoms. This means the fatality rate looks higher than it really is.

BUT i will say this thing is scary as hell when you know so little about it...but for once i believe we are actually tackling a disease and will have an answer to this thing sooner than later.

I wish the nation/globe would respond like this in order to beat Cancer. Cancer is a pandemic if you ask me. It does not spread like Covid, but it is a global killer with the highest mortality rate of them all. My wife lost her mother to it. I lost my mother to it. We should tackle that sob after we get done with Corona

 

[CU_4734]

I’m so torn at this point. I was all for the shutdown a week ago and it seems like this is all just unreal. We are inches away from shutting down a state of 5.5 million when we have less than 2K cases confirmed. What’s the worst case of how many people could have it in SC right now? 5K? All of this for 100,000 out of work in just two weeks?

Just want things to be normal again

Agree with this and doesn’t take into account the recoveries that aren’t tracked. The government needs to focus on all hands on deck to get a drug that eases symptoms and a vaccine. We have to open to the economy sooner rather than later

 

[tigertommy1]

We would be in a lot better situation if the entire country had done a 14 day self quarantine a month ago.

we really wouldn’t be better off overall.

would we have fewer deaths NOW? Sure

would we have fewer deaths overall? Not really.

Quarantine just spreads the exposure over a longer period of time. Same number of people are going to be exposed. Just a matter of do you want it quicker or slower (without discussion of the consequences of fast or slow)

The total number of people who are going to be exposed is the same (basically the entire population). Just depends on how fast that happens. Sooner or later Every. Single. Person. will be exposed. The trick will be balancing the speed of exposure vs other factors (economy)

 

[doodog]

I am somewhere in the middle. Is this thing bad? Yes. Is it as bad as people are making it out to be? No.

We can’t just quit living for 6 months.

 

[ddot7]

Well I have read where some people that died had a positive test but the deaths may not have been related to the virus. Just curious how those determinations are made. Also the mortality rate could be off sense we asymptomatic people that will never be tested. So the numbers seem off to me I guess. Now I will admit I could be way off but that is something that has crossed my mind.

Any idea where you read that? It seems plausible but I wonder if it’s just anecdotal and if out of the 8000+ or so deaths (depending upon what you believe), if there are enough of those instances to have an impact on those numbers. I think it’s fair if someone in hospice care tested positive for COVID-19 to question whether that person should be listed but even though it has generally had a bigger impact among the elderly, it seems as though there are a significant amount of people who would be alive if not for this virus.