Open honest discussion ref COV19
- Thread starter Nobarscanholdme
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They’d be packed in Clemson no doubt. Everything that is open here is busy.
the problem is everything that is not being brought to the public’s attention through mass media. Step outside the msm and a whole different world appears. The new cases have have trended downward several days in a row in NYC. Yes you read that right.
Two different treatments are being used right now with great results in many many countries world wide and many cities here: the drug cocktail works, period. It’s preventing people from getting infected and it’s greatly improving the conditions of the huge majority of infected it’s used on. Secondly antibody laden plasma from those who’ve had the virus is being given to infected patients and it’s also very successful. Also U of Penn Med school has a vaccine that works in mice, is readily mass produced and is given by a skin patch which increases the immune response. The trials will begin within days and looks very promising according to the researchers who developed it.
the risk for healthy working age people is extremely low, maybe lower than influenza but not much more either. Vulnerable people need to remain sheltered either way. After looking at this every day for hours for six weeks I’m convinced we’re close to a downward slope and locking everything down after April will increasingly look excessive to those who have paid close attention to the ever downward slope of the wildly incorrect models that were being used a few days ago. The covid task force went from predicting 2.2 million dead to 240,00 dead to now admitting it’s quite possible it’ll be less than 100,000 and in only three weeks, and they are not really factoring in all those that will be saved by the new treatments. The hospital ship in NY harbor is almost empty as of yesterday. NY is far far worse than anywhere else. NY/NJ has two thirds of the death toll and more than half the new cases in the entire country. It won’t be anywhere near as bad anywhere else because of the shut downs.
I know people don’t want to believe this but it’s because they’ve watched msm and have been scared shitless by the hysterical one sided coverage which has mainly ignored all the positive developments and ever downward trending of predictions.
The sky is not falling. 10-14 days from now the entire narrative of the media will go from apocalyptic to who’s fault was it. Wait and see....
Not true as there will be people who die because of overcrowding in hospitals, lack of equipment and the strain on staff.
If the virus is mitigated by reducing the peak, while the same number of people might be infected, the strain won’t be so great on the health care system. Moreover, the longer we can delay onset of the infection, the more time we have to create an Antiviral or a vaccine.
There isn’t a vaccine for cancer. It isn’t a virus. Kidney cancer is different than brain cancer, pancreatic cancer is different than breast cancer, prostate cancer is different than leukemia.Let me first say I am all good with staying shut down for April and May if it gets to that. If we get to June im starting to sweat a little bit that everything is going to crash, if we are in July still shut down our economy is toast and we are staring at the next Great Depression.
For those that do not know an estimated 7 MILLION PEOPLE DIED from the last Great Depression. They starved to death. So that is why i say just shutting down is not the answer to save lives. You are saving at most 200,000 and losing 7 MILLION. That is why i hate to see the medical person saying “you dont care about lives being saved”. That could not be further from the truth.
Here is the problem I have currentlt with Covid and its mortality rate. We assume Covid is the result of every death on a positive test. Whether that was the ultimate factor or not.
My issue with Covid mortality predictions (which are all over the place, everyone knows that. One day its 2 million, then its 36,000, then its 200,000)
Since many of us are experiencing homeschooling these days, it seems a good time for a math refresher. Once the number of infections is determined, this becomes the denominator in our public health calculation. The number of deaths is our numerator.
Numerator (number of deaths)/denominator (number of people infected) x 100 = infection fatality rate
We know the virus spreads very fast once it is introduced to a population. That means many of us in the general population are or were already infected with the virus- whether or not we have symptoms.
Testing rates - and counting methods - vary widely from country to country
Image: Our World in Data
However, instead of counting us all in the denominator, in many countries including the US, only people sick enough to go to the hospital are counted. People sick enough to go to the hospital are more likely to need critical care, and patients in critical condition are more likely to die than patients with mild symptoms. This means the fatality rate looks higher than it really is.
BUT i will say this thing is scary as hell when you know so little about it...but for once i believe we are actually tackling a disease and will have an answer to this thing sooner than later.
I wish the nation/globe would respond like this in order to beat Cancer. Cancer is a pandemic if you ask me. It does not spread like Covid, but it is a global killer with the highest mortality rate of them all. My wife lost her mother to it. I lost my mother to it. We should tackle that sob after we get done with Corona
We aren’t going to have 1 solution for cancer. But the world spends billions a year studying cancer. Joe Biden wants it to be our “moonshot” to find cures for cancer.
But this pandemic is killing people of all ages in a matter of days. It is the most serious health threat to the world in our lifetimes.
And maybe we wouldn’t have had such a long shut down if our president had heeded his intelligence agencies’ warnings about COVID in January. He didn’t. Many GOP governors didn’t. And we will all
pay for that neglect.
I saw around 400 people lined up around SAMs club today. I’m pretty sure the American people will be out and about
They said the worst case scenario was 2 to 3 million lives lost if we did nothing. We just spent $2 trillion on stimulus and more is on the way. Maybe I am harsh, but is it worth it? Even with the measures that are being taken, it is still largely up to the individual to keep themselves safe.
What about De Blasio encouraging the st pattys day parade in Feb in what is now the US epicenter? All govnt is local. Is that also Trumps fault?
Imo, Trump has weighed the economic toll vs the lives saved from the start with the consensus info at hand, and will continue to do so.
Easy to play Monday morning qb on both sides.
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we will just disagree.
The person who is going to die after getting infected is going to die whether they get the exposure now, or in several months. That probably sounds crass - but it is the truth.
What spreading out the exposure does is protect the health system (which we both seem to agree)
When a person needs a ventilator, the stats show very high likelihood they aren’t surviving.
I would be willing to bet a large amount we have herd immunity before a vaccine, unless someone forces FDA to speed track something.
I understand your points completely, and I believe wholeheartedly that the more fortunate should help take care of the less fortunate. One thing you will never hear me complain about is paying significantly more taxes than most because I know this means we have been fortunate. My points were not really meant to direct at those struggling to make ends meet. It was really meant for those that have car payments beyond their means, $200/month cell phone payments, houses in excess of what they can truly afford. When the basic necessities of life take your whole paycheck, it is impossible to save as you pointed out. It's just SO MANY in our society have to have all the extras, but if they miss one paycheck they're in a hole. I just hope that Americans can learn to wait on the extras until they have some saved for a rainy day.
And here we go again. Cant have one friggin discussion without couple very specific posters going all political.
You do know that Fauci, whom most agree is the most levelheaded, is on record in an interview in late January saying the American public has no reason to be worried.
Good grief man. Nobody could’ve seen this coming. Especially not with lack of true info coming out of earliest places.
It's more than just one paycheck for many. Could be 4-12 or more paychecks depending on how long the shutdown lasts.
Also read, Delta airlines is burning thru $60 mill/day. They are not alone. Again i ask, saving lives is great, but at what cost?
A few thoughts...
80 percent of jobs in the US are created by small business. A very high percentage of these will not survive and their owners will have to file bankruptcy, many losing everything they have worked for and taken major risks for. Most small business owners are hardworking risk takers and are much more afraid of having their life's work taken from them than from contracting the virus and being one of the less than 1 percent that suffers death from it. Many of their employees feel the same way.
We are too far down this disasterous road to road to back up now but I think we should have quarantined the most vulnerable (voluntarily)....those with pre-existing conditions and or over 68 yrs. old and kept the young and healthy producing goods and services so that we didn't drop a nuclear bomb on the economy that feeds, houses and provides every necessary thing for life for us.
The suffering, carnage and death that will result from this economic catastrophe will likely exceed that brought about by the virus.
The governments plan to print trillions of dollars and hand them out to everyone will not work. It did not work in Germany between the World Wars, it did not work in Venezuela or Greece or anywhere else. It can't work. We don't need dollar bills, we need goods and services. We have been forced to discontinue their production.
Many people (not all) who have worked for government entities or publicly funded organizations don't understand basic economic truth. Like gravity, it can't be denied though.
For many Americans taking the risk of catching this virus pales in comparison to the certain calamity that the response is causing.
God will use all things for the good of those who are in Christ Jesus and are called according to his purpose. I'm confident that he will use these circumstances for my good but I am sad for the suffering that we will endure due to the decisions that have been made.
I hope everyone on TI has a blessed weekend.
Do you know any adults making minimum wage? I can't hire an unskilled adult with a criminal record for less than 13.00. (or I couldn't before this shutdown hit, I probably could now but of course, we're not hiring now)
I agree with what was said about traffic deaths, except the estimate of saving 10,000 a year is low. I looked it up 38,000 deaths a year, with 4,400,000 serious injuries. Reduce the speed limit to 45 on the interstate and 35 on regular roads and think how many could be saved. How many want to change the law and save all the suffering?
Thanks Mike, but many are offended by rational thought regarding this virus.
IMO, it doesn't have to be one or the other. China has gotten it under control after a major outbreak and did so within two months. Our economy can stand two months - in fact that is what the stimulus plan was designed for. But we must do it hard and tight like China and get it under control absolutely during that 2 month period. That will require very strong leadership and a lot of education and peer pressure. See the article in the New England Journal of Medicine below on this. Unfortunately, I see no leadership presently even presenting this plan much less pulling it off. Half measures will give us the worst of both worlds IMO: a shattered economy for an extended period and a lot of dead and sick people - only spread over a longer period of time. I am no expert, but just my opinion from watching this closely for 10 weeks as an amateur.
We seem to be confirming Winston Churchill's maxim about the USA.
"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else."
Winston Churchill
Well, im leary of anything coming out of China. However, when they were under strict quarantine, saw pics of military roaming the streets. No thanks.
...and one nyc mayor didn't, and he is mostly responsible for many of the deaths in the country. Convenient you left that out.
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That is why you need peer pressure and education. I am not sure our constitution even allows forced quarantine of masses of well people. If both parties and the President explained the stakes and educated the people with a consistent message, I would hope enough people would abide by the request/rules. But there would need to be an end date to give everyone hope. It would have to be a message of shared sacrifice for the good of the country and each other. Currently, we have mixed messages from all different parts of government and often a different message each day from the same government officials the prior day. That has little chance of working short of a cure or vaccine.
Or we could just let it run its course and get back to work and realize that the cost is killing 1-2 million, ruin the lungs of a lot more, and get it over with. 1 million deaths would be proportionate to the USA deaths of WW2 when considering population, so the country would need to be willing to take that hit or possibly double that hit. Probably everyone in the country in that case would personally know multiple persons dying from the virus. It apparently would take about 2 years for the virus to make 3 passes and fully saturate the country. So the dying would be pretty constant for 2 years.
DeBlasio was foolish. There is no excuse. Trump has bungled this from the start and his suggestion yesterday that maybe large Easter church services might be okay is part and parcel of how lousy his leadership is ... at the same time he is saying these will be the worst 2 weeks we have experienced.
The numbers coming out of China (and pretty much all official information from there) are clearly bogus. The total number of official infections there hasn't changed in days. Do you believe that?
I am one that would not go to restaurants if they were open. In fact, i am not even doing drive thrus or take outs right now. With so many people around that are asymptomatic or mild symptoms, i would rather cook. Until this calms down, I'm good with cooking.
As a former biomedical researcher, i do wonder about the long term affects for all those asymptomatic or mild symptoms folks. Have their lungs, heart valves, etc.. suffer damage?
Just so much we don't know.
No, I do not believe a thing the communist party says. I watch what they do. They shut down cities, then provinces, then 1/2 their country (and 80% of their economy). That told me all i needed to know about how serious this virus was. I knew they feared the virus more than the economic devastation.
I saw this January 24th-28th or thereabouts. I immediately made plans accordingly for my business and family. The cost to plan was minimal. The cost of not planning was astronomical. I took the safer course. It is unfathomable to me that the heads of countries, states, large cities, hospital administrators, and public health officials etc. did not do accordingly.
The fact that China has opened its cities and factories again tells me they think the virus is under control in their country. I again am watching what they do. I ignore what they say.
Multiple doctors and nurses first in China and later in Italy warned in videos that the virus was very bad and to not underestimate it. I did listen to those as they seemed heartfelt and genuine to me.
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Regarding China's responsibility, see below what i posted in a different thread.
See below for articles on the likelihood the Coronavirus escaped from the nearby Wuhan bio lab. I have thought that is the most likely answer, but there is no direct proof yet. It seems too big of a coincidence that the lab just so happens to be in the same city where the virus originated. Plus, i am suspicious that China went to such great lengths to keep it secret from the world and limited foreign observers until the epidemic was raging. Suspicious in my mind.
"That evidence includes a study “conducted by the South China University of Technology, [that] concluded that the coronavirus ‘probably’ originated in the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,” located just 280 meters from the Hunan Seafood Market often cited as the source of the original outbreak."
https://tennesseestar.com/2020/04/04/coronavirus-expert-says-virus-could-have-leaked-from-wuhan-lab/
https://thebulletin.org/2020/03/exp...her-it-could-have-leaked-from-a-research-lab/
Understood that we often hype certain, dramatic deaths way out of proportion to other riskier, but less dramatic deaths, but see this interactive graphic. This virus has been in the country only 10 weeks or so and we have shut down the economy to slow it, yet it is the 3rd largest cause of death already.
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/
@padtigers
Do you listen to Rush Limbaugh? Just curious because I just saw his comments from Thursday echoing similar thoughts that the numbers may be inflated (among others things) so it reminded me of this.
Number 1, I am a crazy optimist, its why I suck at gambling! I truly believe the card I need is the next one coming!
Number 2, The entire point of this quarantine is to delay death by helping our hospitals be stocked and ready. With the amount of companies jumping into manufacturing what we need and our ability to setup makeshift hospitals using hotels/college dorms/cruise ships we will soon be ready to handle a larger load of cases.
Number 3, it appears that the virus is impacted by temperature/sunlight. Maybe not a ton, but at least a little. Most of the country is about to warm up, and warm up a lot.
Number 4, you don't have to open up everything all at once. I applaud the President for taking the advice to setup a re-entry team to focus on opening us back up. We can put a plan in place over the next 4 weeks to have us ready to get back to at least 80% by the end of may.
Number 5, the treatments they are using are showing to be not just effective, but highly effective.
All of these points should encourage us that the worst of this should pass in the next two weeks and a plan should be in place by end of April.
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