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OT: Tariff Economics Discussion

Yes, the small businesses that were being funded off the fat that was USAID will fail.

The strong businesses will survive. Others will re allocate to more productive means.

This is how you get rid of inflation. We voted inflation out and this is the antidote.

The 10 year is down below 4% today.
If you think the only businesses that will shutter from this tariff bullshit is USAID funded organizations, you have no idea what you're talking about.

You're essentially advocating for monopolization of industries since small businesses have much tighter margins and can't sustain multiple months/quarters of losses like large industries can.
 
I know less than 0% about overall economic strategy that comes into play with Tariffs.
What I do know, working on the commercial side of industry for the last 20 years is that IF the tariffs do indeed increase the price to consumer of imported goods (and of course they will, companies will not reduce their price and offset the tariffs), US companies will increase their price as well. It's a free opportunity to increase prices and any US company would be DUMB to not do so. This obviously just results in all prices to consumers going up. I've been in Germany the last 10 days and was there when the imported car tariff was announced. If I recall, there were also reports discussing whether there's a "handshake" agreement that US car manufacturers will or will not increase their price. There's no sales person on the planet that would NOT increase their price at the moment.

I'd be surprised if more manufacturing focused on critical technologies produced in Asia comes to the US. The cost to break ground on a new facility for many of the technologies provided by Asia, in my opinion, will not be offset by any of the "incentives" brought about with tariffs. But again, I'm speaking on this as an engineer in the commercial world that has worked with private US companies and international larger companies. Totally open to being 100% wrong here, I just see no way that the consumer doesn't get hit with higher prices across the board.
 
the idea that the majority of red state redneck MAGA voters are in a position to play any kind of long game is hilarious.
It's also a sign about the economy that you are saying is "breaking". It was already broken.

Which is it? The economy is strong because of Biden, or people aren't in good fiscal shape?
 
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The policy announced yesterday is a lot of things. Sensible and well thought out is not one of those things.

First of all, the chart is a lie. Their calculation of what a tariff on the US is just isn't factual. They are using their own formula to get to this which isn't remotely in touch with reality.

Second, this is just horrendous economics. The hyperbolic language used yesterday in saying we've been pillaged and raped by other countries is nuts. He's just making it up as he goes along. We only have pretty much all data ever to demonstrate this isn't the case.

I have no idea what Trump is doing. All I can conclude is he's gone insane and is no better than Biden. I'm seriously pissed about it because I'm sick of all the dishonest, stupid crap. This was such a great opportunity to make progress and as Republicans always do, they are blowing it.

So once again, we'll empower the left to make a roaring comeback and everyone will suffer because of it.
 
The policy announced yesterday is a lot of things. Sensible and well thought out is not one of those things.

First of all, the chart is a lie. Their calculation of what a tariff on the US is just isn't factual. They are using their own formula to get to this which isn't remotely in touch with reality.

Second, this is just horrendous economics. The hyperbolic language used yesterday in saying we've been pillaged and raped by other countries is nuts. He's just making it up as he goes along. We only have pretty much all data ever to demonstrate this isn't the case.

I have no idea what Trump is doing. All I can conclude is he's gone insane and is no better than Biden. I'm seriously pissed about it because I'm sick of all the dishonest, stupid crap. This was such a great opportunity to make progress and as Republicans always do, they are blowing it.

So once again, we'll empower the left to make a roaring comeback and everyone will suffer because of it.
Take a lap.
 
Libs at least have a motive here, you’re just being an emo. Hold it together.

Dear Lord. Lol

I'm not an emo. I am a conservative who believes in the Constitution.

He has no power to do what he's doing. I didn't vote for a king.

He is lying about the data he's providing to Americans to justify this. That's wrong by any measure.

Israel has no tariffs with us. They were on the list. Nations that we have a trade surplus with were hit with 10% tariffs. That's wrong.

The emo people are the ones who just stand with Trump no matter what. I'm an American and I am for America. I want a nation rooted in our Constitution and conservative principles. What this is doing is running entirely counter to that. I don't like lying. I am for truth in all cases and all things when it comes to government policy.

That's not emo and I am not coming apart. But I can tell you that something is coming apart... and that is a tragedy.
 
I'm not an emo. I am a conservative who believes in the Constitution.

He has no power to do what he's doing. I didn't vote for a king.

He is lying about the data he's providing to Americans to justify this. That's wrong by any measure.

Israel has no tariffs with us. They were on the list. Nations that we have a trade surplus with were hit with 10% tariffs. That's wrong.

The emo people are the ones who just stand with Trump no matter what. I'm an American and I am for America. I want a nation rooted in our Constitution and conservative principles. What this is doing is running entirely counter to that. I don't like lying. I am for truth in all cases and all things when it comes to government policy.

That's not emo and I am not coming apart. But I can tell you that something is coming apart... and that is a tragedy.

I agree in principle with most of what you are saying

I am just hoping to reassure you that despite your thinking there is a plan on a grand scale that will make all the world and humanity better gor it to come to fruition

Just go fishing for a few days

Sit in the swing and drink some tequilia

Just hang out Cut off the TV Do not listen to the howling dogs and doomsday seers

The world is going to BE OK
 
Do none of the MAGAs actually care that the administration is just blatantly lying to you about this? I mean, do you not really care that the admin thinks you're so stupid that you won't recognize that the chart they provided is full of bullshit?
 
Do none of the MAGAs actually care that the administration is just blatantly lying to you about this? I mean, do you not really care that the admin thinks you're so stupid that you won't recognize that the chart they provided is full of bullshit?

It's also important to consider that Israel lowered their rate to 0% and still got hit. So what incentive is there for other nations to lower to zero when they will still be hit. We even tariffed an island that has no people on it. It's all so nuts and it will represent a large tax increase on all Americans.

A well thought out situation would be explained by the President and then put forward to Congress and voted on. You win by working with the people to push forward an agenda that benefits the country. You don't win by declaring a fake emergency and literally dragging the largest economy that's ever existed around with you as a cudgel to beat people with. A real conservative understands the less government there is the better. This is the opposite of that.
 
The policy announced yesterday is a lot of things. Sensible and well thought out is not one of those things.

First of all, the chart is a lie. Their calculation of what a tariff on the US is just isn't factual. They are using their own formula to get to this which isn't remotely in touch with reality.

Second, this is just horrendous economics. The hyperbolic language used yesterday in saying we've been pillaged and raped by other countries is nuts. He's just making it up as he goes along. We only have pretty much all data ever to demonstrate this isn't the case.

I have no idea what Trump is doing. All I can conclude is he's gone insane and is no better than Biden. I'm seriously pissed about it because I'm sick of all the dishonest, stupid crap. This was such a great opportunity to make progress and as Republicans always do, they are blowing it.

So once again, we'll empower the left to make a roaring comeback and everyone will suffer because of it.

Can we talk about this for a minute?

Why do you think it is not in touch with reality? I agree that it's not like we have a 1:1 tariff. But that does not take into consideration other factors to entering the market that are equivalent to tariffs. That is other factors like currency manipulation and other barriers to entry.

To say that is "isn't remotely in touch with reality" is a statement that i disagree with. The rates are very much so based on reality.

It's good to see that people are starting to wake up to how bad we have been getting ripped off as Americans.
 
Do none of the MAGAs actually care that the administration is just blatantly lying to you about this? I mean, do you not really care that the admin thinks you're so stupid that you won't recognize that the chart they provided is full of bullshit?
Lets talk about it. What are you talking about specifically? The chart?

What do you disagree with?
 
I have no idea what Trump is doing. All I can conclude is he's gone insane and is no better than Biden. I'm seriously pissed about it because I'm sick of all the dishonest, stupid crap. This was such a great opportunity to make progress and as Republicans always do, they are blowing it.

So once again, we'll empower the left to make a roaring comeback and everyone will suffer because of it.
If by "suffer" you mean having a post-Covid economy that was the envy of the developed world with strong employment numbers and dropping inflation numbers, then I agree we should all hope to suffer. We "suffer" while allowing our NATO brethren to unite against a new age axis of evil and replenish our military wares while letting Ukraine decimate Putin's army for pennies on the dollar without American bloodshed while also showing China what happens when you overstep your bounds.

Biden, as is frequently the case with Democrats, handed his Republican successor a thriving economy and it took the R a couple months to cut it off at the knees.
 
If by "suffer" you mean having a post-Covid economy that was the envy of the developed world with strong employment numbers and dropping inflation numbers, then I agree we should all hope to suffer. We "suffer" while allowing our NATO brethren to unite against a new age axis of evil and replenish our military wares while letting Ukraine decimate Putin's army for pennies on the dollar without American bloodshed while also showing China what happens when you overstep your bounds.

Biden, as is frequently the case with Democrats, handed his Republican successor a thriving economy and it took the R a couple months to cut it off at the knees.
"envy of the developed world" when inflation was the highest in 50 years. And then democrats tried to pass the massively inflationary BBB.

Democrats are so out of touch with reality.

We had rising inflation, rising interest rates and $20 trillion of debt ot refinance.

We voted and we all said No More!!!

Thank you Trump for having the stones to follow through.
 
I know less than 0% about overall economic strategy that comes into play with Tariffs.
What I do know, working on the commercial side of industry for the last 20 years is that IF the tariffs do indeed increase the price to consumer of imported goods (and of course they will, companies will not reduce their price and offset the tariffs), US companies will increase their price as well. It's a free opportunity to increase prices and any US company would be DUMB to not do so. This obviously just results in all prices to consumers going up. I've been in Germany the last 10 days and was there when the imported car tariff was announced. If I recall, there were also reports discussing whether there's a "handshake" agreement that US car manufacturers will or will not increase their price. There's no sales person on the planet that would NOT increase their price at the moment.

I'd be surprised if more manufacturing focused on critical technologies produced in Asia comes to the US. The cost to break ground on a new facility for many of the technologies provided by Asia, in my opinion, will not be offset by any of the "incentives" brought about with tariffs. But again, I'm speaking on this as an engineer in the commercial world that has worked with private US companies and international larger companies. Totally open to being 100% wrong here, I just see no way that the consumer doesn't get hit with higher prices across the board.
There is very little incentive for firms to move manufacturing back to the USA. Even with the tariffs, it is still probably cheaper to produce overseas just for labor costs alone. What manufacturing does come back will be automated, anyways. Frankly, Trump will probably be out of office before new facilities could be constructed and there is a high likelihood that these tariffs are not permanent.

Firms will just pay the tariff and pass the cost on to consumers. They will also cut jobs to help offset costs. Result is stagflation.
 
Anyone that thinks a thriving economy had

1) Rising inflation
2) Rising Interest rates
3) Running $2 Trillion deficits
4) We are already $30 trillion in debt
5) Valuations were extreme. See Buffets $315B cash horde

The economy sucked.
 
btw @Willence if you're wondering whether or not Trump is insane, he's taking advice from this crazy lady who claims to be psychic about whom to fire from his security council...



 
The story that these tariffs are going to drive huge growth in our manufacturing sector are just not true. It isn't like we can turn on factories and have supply chains moving in a couple of months.

There would have to be extended economic pain before manufacturing in the US would come close to being able to replace all the items that are imported today. The republicans won't survive the midterms, much less the 2028 election, if they think the country will stand for this kind of pain for some hope of a long-term payoff.

I had hoped he was trying put some negotiating ploy in place, but if he truly thinks these tariffs are going to deliver a huge economic boon, he will find out how quickly he can lose support when people are out of work and losing their homes and cars.
 
Can we talk about this for a minute?

Why do you think it is not in touch with reality? I agree that it's not like we have a 1:1 tariff. But that does not take into consideration other factors to entering the market that are equivalent to tariffs. That is other factors like currency manipulation and other barriers to entry.

To say that is "isn't remotely in touch with reality" is a statement that i disagree with. The rates are very much so based on reality.

It's good to see that people are starting to wake up to how bad we have been getting ripped off as Americans.

So let's go with your last statement. If we're being ripped off, why do all economic measures show we have largely excelled beyond most of the rest of the world in growth since WW2? The country is thriving in so many ways and a targeted approach to this would have been better.

The rates you're talking about aren't reality. They are a formula that's mostly based on trade deficits to create what's described as fair trade. We're the biggest economy ever. We're not going to have a trade surplus with a lot of nations. The ones we do have a surplus with we are tariffing them as well. What the hell for?

Again, we're applying tariffs based on a lot of factors and none of them are really hurting us all that badly. It's about the jobs of tomorrow. It's about growth in areas that are part of the future not bringing back to the past. This is economic policy that Bernie Sanders would implement. We have to be honest even when it's our side. This is bad and he's given ammunition to the Dems when they are defeated. It's an own goal of extraordinary proportions.

It's not a huge stretch to say Trump is that guy wanting to tax everyone to save the wagon-makers in 1905. It's INSANE!
 
There is very little incentive for firms to move manufacturing back to the USA. Even with the tariffs, it is still probably cheaper to produce overseas just for labor costs alone. What manufacturing does come back will be automated, anyways. Frankly, Trump will probably be out of office before new facilities could be constructed and there is a high likelihood that these tariffs are not permanent.

Firms will just pay the tariff and pass the cost on to consumers. They will also cut jobs to help offset costs. Result is stagflation.
They may very well opt to do that, and they may end up being correct.

But there is real risk of going bankrupt if they are wrong. First movers usually win and if Trump doesn't negotiate the tariffs down they could be in a world of hurt.

Definitely some high stakes poker going on. Well run companies that have good products that customers want, will be just fine.
 
Anyone that thinks a thriving economy had

1) Rising inflation
2) Rising Interest rates
3) Running $2 Trillion deficits
4) We are already $30 trillion in debt
5) Valuations were extreme. See Buffets $315B cash horde

The economy sucked.
I would take you more seriously if you acknowledged some of the factors that went into some of those things.
 
btw @Willence if you're wondering whether or not Trump is insane, he's taking advice from this crazy lady who claims to be psychic about whom to fire from his security council...




Well FWIW, I think you're crazy too. :) I couldn't care less about leftist lies and distortions. Again, I'm for the truth and sound conservative economic policy and that's it!
 
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There is very little incentive for firms to move manufacturing back to the USA. Even with the tariffs, it is still probably cheaper to produce overseas just for labor costs alone. What manufacturing does come back will be automated, anyways. Frankly, Trump will probably be out of office before new facilities could be constructed and there is a high likelihood that these tariffs are not permanent.

Firms will just pay the tariff and pass the cost on to consumers. They will also cut jobs to help offset costs. Result is stagflation.

7 Trillion of announced Capital Investment Disagrees with you
 
So let's go with your last statement. If we're being ripped off, why do all economic measures show we have largely excelled beyond most of the rest of the world in growth since WW2? The country is thriving in so many ways and a targeted approach to this would have been better.

The rates you're talking about aren't reality. They are a formula that's mostly based on trade deficits to create what's described as fair trade. We're the biggest economy ever. We're not going to have a trade surplus with a lot of nations. The ones we do have a surplus with we are tariffing them as well. What the hell for?

Again, we're applying tariffs based on a lot of factors and none of them are really hurting us all that badly. It's about the jobs of tomorrow. It's about growth in areas that are part of the future not bringing back to the past. This is economic policy that Bernie Sanders would implement. We have to be honest even when it's our side. This is bad and he's given ammunition to the Dems when they are defeated. It's an own goal of extraordinary proportions.

It's not a huge stretch to say Trump is that guy wanting to tax everyone to save the wagon-makers in 1905. It's INSANE!
I don't like comparing ourselves to other countries. Just like when i argue with my wife I don't compare ourselves to the neighbors. Our neighbors are not the benchmark, our constituents are.

The bottom line is this. The economy was broken. We had the following to back up these statements. These are all factual statements and if you disagree, please provide a link showing i am wrong.

1) Inflation was increasing.
2) Interest Rates were increasing
3) Inflation was much higher than the target rate
4) The National debt is $37 Trillion dollars
5) We ran a deficit of $2 Trillion

Other observations - We have a large wage gap. Our social programs are underfunded. If you go to our large cities, you see drug zombies shitting on the street. Literally. In other cities it is unsafe for outsiders to walk down the street. Crime has increased.

So when you say we "largely excelled" what exactly do you mean?
 
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I would take you more seriously if you acknowledged some of the factors that went into some of those things.
It doesn't matter.

Those policies left us where we are. Republicans and Democrats. It really doesn't matter.

It's like getting the credit card bill and saying you want to talk about where we spent the money. OK, but you still owe the money and the same spending habits are in place.

We were going broke and NO ONE wants to acknowledge it.

Bidenomics was just glorious? Right? I mean he fvcking got trounced. People were pissed.
 
Well FWIW, I think you're crazy too. :) I couldn't care less about leftist lies and distortions. Again, I'm for the truth and sound conservative economic policy and that's it!
so you think the leader of the free world taking advice about whom to fire (he fired three so far) from Laura Loomer isn't concerning?
 
It doesn't matter.

Those policies left us where we are. Republicans and Democrats. It really doesn't matter.

It's like getting the credit card bill and saying you want to talk about where we spent the money. OK, but you still owe the money and the same spending habits are in place.

We were going broke and NO ONE wants to acknowledge it.

Bidenomics was just glorious? Right? I mean he fvcking got trounced. People were pissed.
That's all great and swell, but acting like there wasn't a global pandemic that affected every nation on earth that affected inflation, that NO ONE wants to acknowledge is equally as silly. Keep comparing Biden's average inflation to Trump's is silly, and I know you're smart enough to know that.
 
That's all great and swell, but acting like there wasn't a global pandemic that affected every nation on earth that affected inflation, that NO ONE wants to acknowledge is equally as silly. Keep comparing Biden's average inflation to Trump's is silly, and I know you're smart enough to know that.
We all acknowledge it, except the democrats.

Every.Single.Democrat. voted for BBB spare Joe Manchin.

Can you imagine what inflation would have been without Manchin? Do you really think there would not have been any consequences to passing that bill? We had the worst inflation in 50 years WITHOUT passing that bill.

Democrats do not take inflation seriously, and that is the main reason they were voted out in my opinion.
 
1) Inflation was increasing.
2) Inflation was much higher than the target rate
3) The National debt is $37 Trillion dollars
4) We ran a deficit of $2 Trillion

Other observations - We have a large wage gap. Our social programs are underfunded. We don't have social programs that other countriues do have like healthcare for all. If you got our large cities, you see drug zombies shitting on the street. Literally. In other cities it is unsafe for outsiders to walk down the street. Crime has increased.

So when you say we "largely excelled" what exactly do you mean?

Fair questions. Here's my view on all of this:

1. IMO, our inflation issue is tied to WAY too much government and the reckless spending of government among other things. As such I have always been a staunch believer in the smallest possible government. So DOGE is right up my alley but how it's been done has created more problems that it needed to. But people were always going to complain so I am for continuing this process to find as much of the waste as we can and do whatever is possible to make the government work better. If you're opposed to inflation, what do you think these tariffs are going to accomplish? They will lead to a significant increase in prices. Even if you believe this is a long term good, why do it now and why violate trade agreements we already have in place including those negotiated by the last Trump administration?

2. Again, inflation was high because of the above. It's not come down because of so many circumstances but a big part of it is continued government spending.

3. When we had Trump 1.0, he ran massive deficits and then Covid hit and things got out of control. Dems did what they do best, they took a crisis and tried to make the spending permanent. It's a massive dumpster fire now and we have to get it fixed. That's not happening with tariffs man.

4. Deficit - See above.

The wage gap won't be fixed by tariffs. Social programs are massively overfunded. We should never have healthcare for all in the way other countries do. It seems like people continue to avoid looking at reality. Those healthcare systems suck and the rich people in those countries go elsewhere for care. There are ways to fix healthcare without going with a government based system. Also, ALL those countries are secure able to do all this off the back of American power. It's always been such an asinine argument to make that we should do what they do in Europe. Europe is made up of fattened cows and failed policies. It's not a good set of rules for governance by any measure. We should quit looking to it as a guide for anything except how NOT to do things.

Crime sucks because of so many things. A lot of it is failed leadership and we've become unmoored from any moral principles that are worth a damn. This is what cultural anarchy breeds. I don't know why that's a surprise to anyone because it's only replicated through history ever time its ever existed. Hell, we're a total mess even hen we are moored to timeless moral principles. What do we expect when we abandon everything?

When I said largely excelled, I am talking about since WW2 until now. We've lapped the field compared to nations that we were remotely close to economically. The US has adapted and adjusted to economic growth and helped create more wealth around the world while continuing to grow our own. What's so bad about that?
 
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so you think the leader of the free world taking advice about whom to fire (he fired three so far) from Laura Loomer isn't concerning?

I think having a walking dead person as President for four years is a bad idea. You apparently didn't. You are a partisan and you're going to twist anything to suit your desired outcome. I'm not going to play in that pond because I couldn't care less about that stuff.
 
Fair questions. Here's my view on all of this:

1. IMO, our inflation issue is tied to WAY too much government and the reckless spending of government among other things. As such I have always been a staunch believer in the smallest possible government. So DOGE is right up my alley but how it's been done has created more problems that it needed to. But people were always going to complain so I am for continuing this process to find as much of the waste as we can and do whatever is possible to make the government work better. If you're opposed to inflation, what do you think these tariffs are going to accomplish? They will lead to a significant increase in prices. Even if you believe this is a long term good, why do it now and why violate trade agreements we already have in place including those negotiated by the last Trump administration?

2. Again, inflation was high because of the above. It's not come down because of so many circumstances but a big part of it is continued government spending.

3. When we had Trump 1.0, he ran massive deficits and then Covid hit and things got out of control. Dems did what they do best, they took a crisis and tried to make the spending permanent. It's a massive dumpster fire now and we have to get it fixed. That's not happening with tariffs man.

4. Deficit - See above.

The wage gap won't be fixed by tariffs. Social programs are massively overfunded. We should never have healthcare for all in the way other countries do. It seems like people continue to avoid looking at reality. Those healthcare systems suck and the rich people in those countries go elsewhere for care. There are ways to fix healthcare without going with a government based system. Also, ALL those countries are secure able to do all this off the back of American power. It's always been such an asinine argument to make that we should do what they do in Europe. Europe is made up of fattened cows and failed policies. It's not a good set of rules for governance by any measure. We should quit looking to it as a guide for anything except how NOT to do things.

Crime sucks because of so many things. A lot of it is failed leadership and we've become unmoored from any moral principles that are worth a damn. This is what cultural anarchy breeds. I don't know why that's a surprise to anyone because it's only replicated through history ever time its ever existed. Hell, we're a total mess even hen we are moored to timeless moral principles. What do we expect when we abandon everything?

When I said largely excelled, I am talking about since WW2 until now. We've lapped the field compared to nations that we were remotely close to economically. The US has adapted and adjusted to economic growth and helped create more wealth around the world while continuing to grow our own. What's so bad about that?

So we mostly agree. In your #3 you aknowledge that it's a dumpters fire of an economy. Logically you would agree that something needs to be done about it, you just disagree with the way Trump is going about it. You would not use tariffs.

What would you use? How would you fix the dumpster fire? We don't have a ton of options. We could have continued to kick the can down the road and postposed our day of reckoning, but there is no doubt in my mind it WAS coming. The reasons i listed above showed the economy was very sick as it was. Something had to be done and Trump is one of very few people with the backbone to get it done.

I agree that our past was great, but i do not agree that was sustainable. We were on the precipice of major problems, and we still may be. But at least we are giving ourselves a chance now.

You can't look at the thigns i listed and say you would have continued course. That is just not a reaslistic option. We were in an unsustainable situation.
 
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