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OT: Tariff Economics Discussion

Also, @fatpiggy you were talking about China. I agree they are a huge problem. What we are doing now is the greatest gift they have ever received. We are literally pushing the rest of the world into their arms. If you think they're not going to take advantage of this and capitalize on our power play then you're crazy. Just watch what happens when the dollar isn't the reserve urrency of the world. China is an enemy state and they are the enemy of freedom and opportunity. We are giving them oxygen when they don't need it. We should be maneuvering to make trade agreements with all the countries around them and further freeze them out. We have massive energy reserves that we can use to help promote freedom and opportunity through fair trade. I'm not saying that the tariffs on us are a good thing because I don't think so. But there are better ways to remedy the problem without going in like this and announcing these absurd things like liberation day. It's crazy.
 
I have to say it's heartbreaking to see how quickly the trumpies will abandon our Constitution and the idea of a free republic in favor of an omnipotent leader but they will follow anywhere. Which is why I've said all along the Trump is not a conservative and the folks who vote for him largely or not as well. They couldn't care less about the Constitution I suppose which is really sad to witness. Considering it is our founding principles that make this country great. The exceptionalism that you speak of comes from a constitution that is founded in the division and separation of power. It is founded in limited and very controlled government. What you want is a guy who can just come on and do whatever he wants. Trump might do a good job with this and things may work out. But you have now laid the groundwork for future presidents to just come in and declare an emergency and do whatever the hell they want to do. That is a catastrophic development for this country. The shortsightedness is breathtaking.
Thats a very different argument.
 
Also, @fatpiggy you were talking about China. I agree they are a huge problem. What we are doing now is the greatest gift they have ever received. We are literally pushing the rest of the world into their arms. If you think they're not going to take advantage of this and capitalize on our power play then you're crazy. Just watch what happens when the dollar isn't the reserve urrency of the world. China is an enemy state and they are the enemy of freedom and opportunity. We are giving them oxygen when they don't need it. We should be maneuvering to make trade agreements with all the countries around them and further freeze them out. We have massive energy reserves that we can use to help promote freedom and opportunity through fair trade. I'm not saying that the tariffs on us are a good thing because I don't think so. But there are better ways to remedy the problem without going in like this and announcing these absurd things like liberation day. It's crazy.
Yep. They'll sell to Europe instead of us, and Americans will be left paying more.

@fatpiggy You also have to consider retaliatory tariffs that make it difficult for American companies to make money in foreign markets, domestic demand dropping when prices go up, and companies being hesistant to dump billions of dollars moving here when they don't know what will happen in 4 years. It could wind up being cheaper ot manufacture abroad anyway.
 
From your mouth to God's ears. Unfortunately it doesn't work that way. That is an overly simplistic analogy that would never play out in reality. That's why having an access tariff for our market is ridiculous. It's going to blow up most likely. There is a narrow path where it could potentially work if he's willing to back off. But what he's going to do is spend all his capital on this and if it doesn't work then Republicans will be in the minority for a long time. And in the process the Democrats, who know next to nothing about economics, will totally destroy this country. It's a big gamble to take and not one that I voted for.
It is absolutely exactly what i voted for.

And it's not an overly simple analogy. I took it directly from Trumps economic advisor who is a doctorate at MIT.
 
It is absolutely exactly what i voted for.

And it's not an overly simple analogy. I took it directly from Trumps economic advisor who is a doctorate at MIT.

You do realize the mess that you are so upset about was created about people who graduated from the same institutions right? Throwing around where someone was educated when the entire system has been crushed by people from the same educational institutions is a bit of a strange argument.
 
Yep. They'll sell to Europe instead of us, and Americans will be left paying more.

@fatpiggy You also have to consider retaliatory tariffs that make it difficult for American companies to make money in foreign markets, domestic demand dropping when prices go up, and companies being hesistant to dump billions of dollars moving here when they don't know what will happen in 4 years. It could wind up being cheaper ot manufacture abroad anyway.
To me that is a ridiculous sentiment. Europe is a fraction of the size of the US market. Our market is 40% larger by a quick google search.

As you will see, we will win any trade war.
 
I have to say it's heartbreaking to see how quickly the trumpies will abandon our Constitution and the idea of a free republic in favor of an omnipotent leader but they will follow anywhere. Which is why I've said all along the Trump is not a conservative and the folks who vote for him largely or not as well. They couldn't care less about the Constitution I suppose which is really sad to witness. Considering it is our founding principles that make this country great. The exceptionalism that you speak of comes from a constitution that is founded in the division and separation of power. It is founded in limited and very controlled government. What you want is a guy who can just come on and do whatever he wants. Trump might do a good job with this and things may work out. But you have now laid the groundwork for future presidents to just come in and declare an emergency and do whatever the hell they want to do. That is a catastrophic development for this country. The shortsightedness is breathtaking.
Honestly man, I'm not trying to fight with you...but how did you not notice this phenomenon with the way MAGA and the Republican apparatus writ large responded to all the laws he broke during his first term? The dude tried to initiate a fake elector scheme and called up officials in GA to insist they "find" him 11k votes and then sicced his J6 mob on our Capitol to make us an international embarrassment.

How are you just noticing that they don't care about law and order or the constitution? I mean he was flagrant about it for years as were his enablers.
 
You do realize the mess that you are so upset about was created about people who graduated from the same institutions right? Throwing around where someone was educated when the entire system has been crushed by people from the same educational institutions is a bit of a strange argument.

The only mess I was upset about was inflation at the highest level in 50 years, DEI, and illegal immigration.

You suggesting there would be no mess if we just stayed the course is a premise that i do not buy. Trouble was coming. I base this comment off the fact that when Trump took office.

1) Rising inflation
2) Rising interest rates
3) $2 trillion deficit
4) $37 trillion debt
5) Market valuations were at the highest on record causing Buffett to accumulate $300+B in cash.

I do not agree with the premise there would be no mess if we just stayed the course.
 
The only mess I was upset about was inflation at the highest level in 50 years, DEI, and illegal immigration.

You suggesting there would be no mess if we just stayed the course is a premise that i do not buy. Trouble was coming. I base this comment off the fact that when Trump took office.

1) Rising inflation
2) Rising interest rates
3) $2 trillion deficit
4) $37 trillion debt
5) Market valuations were at the highest on record causing Buffett to accumulate $300+B in cash.

I do not agree with the premise there would be no mess if we just stayed the course.

This is what's frustrating with people on the internet. I never said we should stay the course. I want change and I want smart change. I want to see us get our economic house in order. The way that he is doing it is not the only way that it can be done. That I disagree with him on how he is managing this and think it could blow up in the spectacularly horrible way is not me saying that I don't want to do anything. Don't make this in either or thing. I can tell you're trying to discuss things which is great but don't turn people into simpletons if they don't agree with what you want to do. There isn't just one path forward.
 
great job morons. can anyone guess who was in the WH back in 2020 when the other drop occurred?


You wanted me to point out when you say completely intellectually dishonest stuff. Here you go. Because you know exactly what was going on when this drop happened in 2020. And you're hanging it around the neck of someone who had absolutely nothing to do with the circumstance under which it occurred and you know that. You are a partisan and will be intellectually dishonest as much as possible in order to put forward your point of view. By your calculus, the ends justify the means and that includes telling the truth.
 
Honestly man, I'm not trying to fight with you...but how did you not notice this phenomenon with the way MAGA and the Republican apparatus writ large responded to all the laws he broke during his first term? The dude tried to initiate a fake elector scheme and called up officials in GA to insist they "find" him 11k votes and then sicced his J6 mob on our Capitol to make us an international embarrassment.

How are you just noticing that they don't care about law and order or the constitution? I mean he was flagrant about it for years as were his enablers.

I've always noticed it. That's why in a primary I have never voted for Trump. And I never would in any primary. I don't support the guy. I just voted for him against people on your side of the fence because as bad as he can be that side is even worse. I guess I chose to die slower than die the way that the left is killing this country. You're acting like there's a good side and a bad side. There isn't. I'm always on the side of law and order. Being on that automatically disqualifies anyone on the left. They don't care about the law and they sure as hell don't care about order. All they care about is how they can exploit the law in order to get what they want which is more power.
 
I've always noticed it. That's why in a primary I have never voted for Trump. And I never would in any primary. I don't support the guy. I just voted for him against people on your side of the fence because as bad as he can be that side is even worse. I guess I chose to die slower than die the way that the left is killing this country. You're acting like there's a good side and a bad side. There isn't. I'm always on the side of law and order. Being on that automatically disqualifies anyone on the left. They don't care about the law and they sure as hell don't care about order. All they care about is how they can exploit the law in order to get what they want which is more power.
dude you sound 100% MAGA. this is like reading a 2am truth social post from the man himself.

you don't like illegality or moral decay so you voted for Donald Trump to lead our nation? make it make sense.
 
You wanted me to point out when you say completely intellectually dishonest stuff. Here you go. Because you know exactly what was going on when this drop happened in 2020. And you're hanging it around the neck of someone who had absolutely nothing to do with the circumstance under which it occurred and you know that. You are a partisan and will be intellectually dishonest as much as possible in order to put forward your point of view. By your calculus, the ends justify the means and that includes telling the truth.
lol Trump botched his response to the pandemic. remember when it would be gone in a week....then Easter....then summer would kill it off....

he absolutely wears his failures, not to mention making it easier for thousands of people to die and stoking the fires of racism and xenophobia with his rhetoric.

imagine watching this idiot tell the whole world we're going to inject bleach and not thinking he bore responsibility for his reaction to this event.
 
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Game theory this out with me.

You have two can manufacturers selling cars in America. CHINA and US.

CHINA sells a car for 10,000
US sells a car for 10,000

Trump puts tariff on China of 25%

China car costs $12,500

China raises prices. United States 1) Raises Prices to match or 2) Does not raise prices to keep competitive advantage.

You may say, well the Unites states will raise their prices. This would be correct until ......

More manufacturers locate into the US to avoid the Tariffs. Now US Manufacturer must compete with NEW US manufacturer and will lower price to $10,000.


Just a start of discussion. @Willence
How long will it take to build this manufacturing base?

No one is addressing that. Trump will be out of office before plants are operational, if that indeed is the market reaction.
 
dude you sound 100% MAGA. this is like reading a 2am truth social post from the man himself.

you don't like illegality or moral decay so you voted for Donald Trump to lead our nation? make it make sense.

Yes. That should be a clarifying statement for just how utterly horrible the left is.
 
How long will it take to build this manufacturing base?

No one is addressing that. Trump will be out of office before plants are operational, if that indeed is the market reaction.
i like it when the party that doesn't give a shit about the long term ramifications for our environment and the climate crisis that will face future generations acts like we're supposed to believe they have some long game in play for economic thriving that is supposed to benefit us all.
 
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How long will it take to build this manufacturing base?

No one is addressing that. Trump will be out of office before plants are operational, if that indeed is the market reaction.
Trump will be senile or deceased leaving a hell of an economic and constitutional mess
 
If we can all put politics aside for a moment (not likely), what's the general consensus on the tariff strategy? Just from a pure economics standpoint it looks to me like:

Short-term possible outcomes:
*Price-hikes will happen on those goods while different manufacturing options are sought (high)
*Scarcity of some goods (medium)
*Panic in the markets due to the unknown (high)
*China relents and a settlement is reached (medium)

Long-term possible outcomes:
*Manufacturers outside of China step in and prices return to pre-tariff rates (medium)
*Prices remain high driving some inflation (medium)
*China pulls more goods from us (low)
There is nothing in Trump's business background for anyone to buy in to his BS other than his self adoration. He never admits to making a mistake and just plays the blame game. Trump University was obviouly the fault of someone else
 
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That I disagree with him on how he is managing this and think it could blow up in the spectacularly horrible way is not me saying that I don't want to do anything.
I appreciate your independent thinking. We are alike in that regard, I don’t buy into either party hook line and sinker. I pray for our nation and its economy.
 
Game theory this out with me.

You have two can manufacturers selling cars in America. CHINA and US.

CHINA sells a car for 10,000
US sells a car for 10,000

Trump puts tariff on China of 25%

China car costs $12,500

China raises prices. United States 1) Raises Prices to match or 2) Does not raise prices to keep competitive advantage.

You may say, well the Unites states will raise their prices. This would be correct until ......

More manufacturers locate into the US to avoid the Tariffs. Now US Manufacturer must compete with NEW US manufacturer and will lower price to $10,000.


Just a start of discussion. @Willence
Except- more manufacturers cannot build factories during the next 3.5 years and no one knows what the next loony toon will do— or for that matter what the current occupant will do next week. He did state at one time it was a tactic to encourage negotiation. Next week he could become the champion of free markets.
Successful companies don’t make big investments in uncertain markets.

More likely Reagan’s insights come true, US manufacturers become reliant on skewed economics, make corresponding bad decisions based on illusory market conditions that affect their ability to compete globally and suffer a fate similar to US automakers in the 1970’s and ‘80s.
 
How long will it take to build this manufacturing base?

No one is addressing that. Trump will be out of office before plants are operational, if that indeed is the market reaction.
It will take a long time.

Change is hard. We have been getting ripped off for 40 years, I don’t think it’s going to change overnight.

They are restructuring global trade. Not going to be easy or quick. Something was necessary. What is arguable.

Trump won, so give him his chance. That’s why we have elections. He isn’t doing anything he didn’t run on. In fact, he is doing exactly what he ran on!
 
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