Describe exactly what playing field needs to be leveled.
What we have done so far is cause more damage to ourselves without any clear path to a tangible goal.
OT: Tariff Economics Discussion
- Thread starter scott in nashville
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What we have done so far is cause more damage to ourselves without any clear path to a tangible goal.
Part of the problem is nobody seemingly knows what the goals is. Are we using Tariffs to raise funds? Are we using them to negotiate? The reasons seem to change daily.
But you know that in game theory it pays to be unpredictable. That is by design and you know it.
It's not by design or he wouldn't have pussed out with the bond market. Trump had no balls or plan.
With all due respect, your posts demonstrate that you do not have the requisite education (and likely intelligence) to comprehend basic macroeconomic fundamentals. But in summary: COVID-era fiscal policy created inflation - simply looked at the quantum of cash quickly pumped into the system. Post-COVID monetary policy tamed it (adj. inflation had been steadily declining towards 2% target). Now Trump-era fiscal policy - and nothing else - will drive up inflation.
Tariffs are worthy of discussion - I, and many people on both sides of the aisle - believe tariffs should be more strategically implemented to protect American interests. , but the abysmal execution demonstrates that the current administration is inept. There’s simply no justification for the execution to date - even the President’s staunchest supporters in the business community admit that in private.
Exacty. Because there is no economic plan. Looking at his history, MO, and the people around him and I'll go with the reasons being:
1. Manipulate the market volatility while his investment team cashes in.
2. Coerce countries into kicking him back something or making deals with him to make him more money.
3. Make enough pain for US corporations that they will kick some money his way and bend the knee in loyalty to him, so that....
4. When he's sown enough chaos that he can declare some economic or nation welfare emergency and suspend elections, maybe in 2026 but definitely in 2028, the large corps will not push back while his people continue to work on end running the constitution.
Now I sound like the nut job maga cultist conspiracy theorists....lol. Except mine make sense. Occum Razor.
Per my above comment, this is a classic example of MAGA’s uneducated logic. Being unpredictable on the global economic stage is EXACTLY how you hotwire a recession (and potentially one of the worst outcomes in stagflation).
Do you even understand the basic principles of business and negotiation??? Holy s…
MAGA has long attacked anyone expressing a view counter to their own agenda. It’s past the time that the educated community, which has been largely silent because they have better things to do than watch cable news and participate in an echo chamber on MAGA social media (looking at you @Tiger Growls - would love to know what you do for a living and what your social life looks like), calls the many members of MAGA who are nothing more than loud idiots.
Ok guy.
My career is understanding macroeconomics.
I’ll debate anyone who wants to exchange honestly.
You have no credibility. Goodbye
That's the great challenge. How to support Trump, while knowing he's an idiot at global economics.
I’d bet any amount of money you would not win a credibility contest if we were to share credentials.
Your last posts on tariffs were (I) the zero sum game comment, which is asinine (let’s schedule a zoom with a real economist to get their opinion), and (ii) calling out that tariffs have yet to cause inflation, which demonstrates your inability to compare Trump’s first term China tariffs to the current global tariff fiasco. Also could read that comment as not understanding the timing of when tariffs will be reflected in CPI.
Let’s also not ignore how tariffs have crippled decision making for business large and small and cratered consumer confidence, the implications of which need no explanation (for the educated at least).
Calling it now - MAGA will unironically celebrate Pyrrhic victories like Vietnam in the days ahead.
How much you want to bet and where do we put the money?
These guys want to pretend we should keep listening to the “experts” who have shredded our middle class.
The same ones who say “Tax the rich” and then start talking about people making over $250k
They hate on Billionaires, but when it comes time to tax they want to tax the average Joe to oblivion.
No thanks. I’m ready to try something new. And no I won’t agree with kick the can of your sham economy down the road any longer.
The same ones who say “Tax the rich” and then start talking about people making over $250k
They hate on Billionaires, but when it comes time to tax they want to tax the average Joe to oblivion.
No thanks. I’m ready to try something new. And no I won’t agree with kick the can of your sham economy down the road any longer.
Zero doubt. Let’s move on as I’m not going to dox myself to prove a point to fatpiggy.
I’m open to hearing how Trump’s tariffs demonstrate anything positive for America or even just himself - effective leadership, clear communication, novel strategy, etc. But how do you address just a few points -
- Rationale behind the “reciprocal” tariffs, which is a misnomer given the calculation utilized
- How is the American business community supposed to plan for investment today?
- How do you explain the rapid decline in consumer confidence?
- How do you explain the uncorrelated movement of benchmark yields, credit spreads, stock prices, and other financial instruments (eg, Fx)?
- How would you, as a global leader (perhaps just start with major US allies for now), approach a trade deal with America after it just ripped up generations of economic agreements? How do you manage your constituents, who certainly are no more pro-American than they were two months ago
In summary - the business community is paralyzed, the consumer is worried, investors are pricing uncertainty (vs risk), and global trade partners are pissed.
Where are the positives that outweigh the cumulative risks and damage already sustained? Balls in your court @fatpiggy
Are you kidding @ole fastball? You really have the gall to suggest a bet?
Thinking he doesn't know who you are and that you welch on bets?
Ladies and gentlemen, this man has lost painfully. Off to twitter he will go for his safe space.
Hilarious - you previously said you would engage in an honest discussion. All of my above points are supported by objective data.
It’s fine if you can’t intelligently respond - just stop posting altogether on the topic if you can only parrot MAGA talking points.
End the Fed. And let the market set rates.
The Fed is a huge scam. Lowered rates .50 point right before the election 😂😂😂😂
The Fed is a huge scam. Lowered rates .50 point right before the election 😂😂😂😂
He found something on twitter to make him feel better about his Trump support!
What a dumb idea btw.
Okay so it’s confirmed you have no idea what you’re talking about. No legitimate economist or leader in finance would support a Fed that is no longer independent.
Your ignorance is astounding and you’re a coward for ignoring my legitimate questions.
I've been googling and looking into this for the last 10-15 minutes. I'll say it has educated me on the origin of income taxation here in the US, that the Confederacy also inacted income taxes, and that this specific income tax only lasted 10 years until the 16th amendment, but I can't find anything to support "riots" in the streets of NY. Only that there was unrest.
Edit: ah I see in the twitter replies he's already being called out for being wrong. Any information on "riots" that are in the replies and that I also found was due to the 1863 Union Draft.
I love these threads, because MAGA claims everyone is propagandized by the MaInStReAm MeDiA, when they are the most propagandized people on the literal planet (alongside Russia and China probably). They spew their BS and then dudes that REALLY know their shit, like @iceheart08 and @ClemsonCO14, come in and absolutely wreck them and then they tuck their tails between their legs and run away.
Stupid Russian bot tweets made to stir up dumb people don't hold water to reality.
Stupid Russian bot tweets made to stir up dumb people don't hold water to reality.
What's worse is that they don't tuck their tails as they should, they all double down, call it fake news, claim whataboutism.
They never admit that they/MAGA was wrong. Never
Thanks for sharing - agree it’s overall a reasonable summary. It’s frustrating to have to explain this to MAGA folks like @fatpiggy and @TigerGrowls, but out of the kindness of my heart -
- Dalio clearly lays out that disruption of any kind is bad for business and investment
- He is careful not to say that the damage is already done - using words such as juncture / crossroads / etc give the end user (Trump) optionality
- Further, he doesn’t explicitly criticize Trump given the high likelihood of blowback from Trump and MAGA (because anything counter to Trump’s worldview is treason… let’s set aside MAGA’s paradox) eve though the current situation is entirely attributable to Trump
- Highlighting debt as a % of GDP, acknowledging tariffs being in some revenue, refocuses the end user (Trump) back to DOGE and other efforts that, politics and democracy aside, don’t create the type of disruption being experienced (before you argue for tariffs reducing the debt burden just please perform basic research on the offsets from GDP contraction that are more than 2:1)
- He’s careful not to take the bait and say a headline-defining word like “depression”, even though that’s obviously implied by his comments on the 90s and GFC, because the end user (Trump) can not see past perceived insults when analyzing basic commentary
It’s a well executed effort to speak directly to Trump - who listens to actual billionaires - without immediately turning him off due to perceived slights.
You’re welcome MAGA for this free education on how actual business leaders are trying to steer Trump to back down on tariffs. What hasn’t been decided is how to give Trump’s ego a “win” - once that is defined, then there is hope we revert to mostly pre-tariff norms and hopefully quickly rebound from the economic damage.
Great macro economic article.
The path we were on was unsustainable. Kicking the can down the road was no longer an option.
China was / is dominating us.
The comparative advantage argument just crushed us in the long term.
@yoshi would be interested in your opinion. Specifically in regards to the leap in interest payments and the increase in government spending since COVID. Can we agree we were unsustainable?
Can we agree we were getting our asses handed to us by China?
Will anyone know the left acknowledge we were / are on an unsustainable path?
www.zerohedge.com
The path we were on was unsustainable. Kicking the can down the road was no longer an option.
China was / is dominating us.
The comparative advantage argument just crushed us in the long term.
@yoshi would be interested in your opinion. Specifically in regards to the leap in interest payments and the increase in government spending since COVID. Can we agree we were unsustainable?
Can we agree we were getting our asses handed to us by China?
Will anyone know the left acknowledge we were / are on an unsustainable path?
Trump Confronts Economic And Geopolitical Reality | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Great macro economic article.
The path we were on was unsustainable. Kicking the can down the road was no longer an option.
China was / is dominating us.
The comparative advantage argument just crushed us in the long term.
@yoshi would be interested in your opinion. Specifically in regards to the leap in interest payments and the increase in government spending since COVID. Can we agree we were unsustainable?
Can we agree we were getting our asses handed to us by China?
Will anyone know the left acknowledge we were / are on an unsustainable path?
Trump Confronts Economic And Geopolitical Reality | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
I agree that we were on an unsustainable path, and needed to make some tough choices. I vehemently disagree with the methods, and frankly bumbling approach that this admin has taken.
First steps for all of us is honestly admitting that changes need to be made, and to get there we have to compromise. We, the voters have got to quit making the word compromise a bad thing.
Agree it would be nice if we can acknowledge that China has been essentially dominating.
And I agree on compromise.
I understand the sentiment that Trump is going about it the wrong way.
I think this is greatly influenced by the reaction to Trumps first term and how he was treated.
You speak of compromise and I 100% agree with you.
As discussion and to make a point, can you name one thing the left compromised on with Trump in his first term?
Would you agree that the sentiment during Trumps first term was to “resist at all costs?”
Can you agree that arresting Trump was not an effort to compromise?
So while I understand the sentiment that Trump is going about this the wrong way, I just am not sure there is another way to get the results he wants in a 4 year term.
He realizes he has limited time, no one showed any willingness to work with him in the past and now after multiple assassination attempts he is going with the nuclear option.
I have to say, I don’t disagree with him.
Democrats arrested him and tried to put him in jail for the rest of his life
I’ve said before that Democrats rule with an iron fist, but when Republicans win they want to pillow fight.
If you want this compromise you speak of, things need to change.
The people spoke. Trump is not doing anything he didn’t campaign on. The will of the people should be implemented and not hindered by dirty tricks.
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I don't want/feel like addressing each of those points, since we've all discussed it ad nauseum. I will say this, I think both parties have been infantile in how they have handled each other.
I also don't think you can excuse Trump for actual blatant breaking of the law. MAGA loves to play victim to excuse the awful and potentially catastrophic things he has done. The intentional whitewashing of his past and actions towards people is infuriating.
You excuse him literally flooding the zone with more executive orders than any other president in history, in his first 100 days, while not allowing that this amount of actions, particularly when you are citing laws that have never been used this way, is going to have to be adjudicated in courts. That's the way our system works. America is not a company, it doesn't have the ability to instantly change and it shouldn't. Setting legal precedent has long lasting and deep implications. The MAGA desire to throw the baby out with the bathwater, while being completely disingenuous for the reasons with no empathy is not the country I want to live in. That's not what America was founded on.
Excellent points, well received.
Everything has to go through the courts.
Yet DC is 92% Democrats.
That is not representative of the people and is a problem that needs to be addressed.
I do think there is a large disconnect there.
Trump should start moving parts of the government to other parts of the country.
If the will of the people can’t be implemented, massive change is needed.
All the dirty tricks from the past are catching up to democrats now.
As an outside observer I would suggest trying to compete by putting forth a better candidate as opposed to trying to slow down Trump.
Can yall get someone that will fight FOR us Americans?
All the dirty tricks from the past are catching up to democrats now.
As an outside observer I would suggest trying to compete by putting forth a better candidate as opposed to trying to slow down Trump.
Can yall get someone that will fight FOR us Americans?
Tired argument
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Good article on why the bond market is warning investors to be very selective and conservative with stock buys
The Treasury market is tipping its hand. Stock investors aren’t seeing it.: https://on.mktw.net/3ErAjpm
The Treasury market is tipping its hand. Stock investors aren’t seeing it.: https://on.mktw.net/3ErAjpm
I keep posting about how closely we are trending in the direction of Russia.
The media with government access is now pretty much there.
Now trying to take control of the fomc with attempt to fire Powell.
The media with government access is now pretty much there.
Now trying to take control of the fomc with attempt to fire Powell.
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